Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of pisco production in the Ica Valley, Peru Luxembourg September 6 th 2017 Life Cycle Management Conference LCM 2017 Gustavo Larrea-Gallegos Ian Vázquez-Rowe Ramzy Kahhat Hugo Wiener
Presentation layout 1 Pisco production as a case study 2 Methods and model development 3 Results 4 Conclusions and discussion
Pisco is an alcoholic beverage produced with grapes harvested from southern coastal Peru City of Pisco City of Ica
kg of CO 2 eq per liter of pisco Viticulture was identified as a very intensive stage in terms of climate change in most wineries Contribution of stages in GHG emissions per liter of pisco Viticulture Vinification CLCA boundaries Technological dynamics 1,97 ALCA boundaries Crop dynamics Viticulture Factor of scale 2,99 Vinification Distribution Market dynamics Vázquez-Rowe, I., Cáceres, A. L., Torres-García, J. R., Quispe, I., & Kahhat, R. (2017). Life Cycle Assessment of the production of pisco in Peru. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 4369-4383.
MILLION OF LITERS It is reasonable to expect an increase in the demand of pisco for the following years with BAU conditions 10,00 9,00 PISCO PRODUCTION 2000-2014 8,60 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,60 1,80 1,50 2,40 2,90 3,90 4,90 6,10 6,50 6,60 6,30 6,30 7,10 7,10 1,00 0,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YEAR BAU: Business as usual
It is reasonable to expect an increase in the demand of pisco for the following years with BAU conditions 14.3 16.8 2025 2030 BAU: Business as usual
The objective is to understand the environmental consequences of the upcoming increase in pisco demand in terms of GWP Increase in demand of pisco Focusing only on agriculture stage Increase in demand of grapes H 1: Profit of grape increases during time and is always higher than for certain crops H 2: A given farmer will always choose the most profitable crop Replacement Expansion Intensification Imports Profit of grape increases during time and is always higher than for certain crops Fertilization and water use may alter grape quality It is not replaceable due to its denomination of origin H 3: There are certain crops for which profit remains constant or decreases through time
profit Replacement and expansion scenarios can be explained by proposing plausible economic conditions Profit behavior given a demand Y u u1 u u2 u = f(t) u1 = g(t) Selection criteria for marginal producers National Agriculture Census 2012 and National Production Database u u3 u2 = h(t) u3 = k(t) Seasonal crops Domestic sales Low profit products Producer perspective time (demand) maxz = u u 1 X 1 + u u 2 X 2 + u u 3 X 3 maxz = u X 1 + X 2 + X 3 (u 1 X 1 + u 2 X 2 + u 3 X 3 ) maxz = uy (u 1 X 1 + u 2 X 2 + u 3 X 3 ) maxz = (u 1 X 1 + u 2 X 2 + u 3 X 3 ) minz = u 1 X 1 + u 2 X 2 + u 3 X 3 Total arable land > 3 ha Arable land for grapes > 3 ha Access to water sources Financial perspective
A Stochastic Technology Choice Model was selected to analyze the interaction among crops in the Ica and Pisco valleys n sub-systems columns m-n replaceable crops n sub-system output rows A n x n [ ] n x (m n) A n x m Linear programming model: min Z = P Fs k area requirement rows F k x m s. t. As = Y k crop profit elements k available land elements n demand elements P kx1 C kx1 Y nx1 sj 0 Fs C Kaẗelho n, A., Bardow, A., & Suh, S. (2016). Stochastic Technology Choice Model for Consequential Life Cycle Assessment. Environmental Science & Technology, 50(23), 12575-12583. Reinout, H., & Sangwon, S. (2002). The computational structure of life cycle assessment. The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
replaced crop kg CO 2 eq per liter replaced crop kg CO 2 eq per liter There is an increase in the net GHG emissions per liter of pisco in both scenarios due to crop replacement 100% Valley of Ica scenario 8 100% Valleys of Pisco and Ica scenario 8 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.78 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.21 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2025 demand y = 5660000 2030 demand y = 8240000
A profit variability simulation shows that emissions per FU converge to a value and net emissions do not differ GHG emissions in 2025 Ica with or without annual variability: 38.4 Mg CO 2 eq
It is possible to satisfy the projected pisco demand in the Region of Ica, if land and water are used efficiently It is plausible for farmers to change to more profitable and less water demanding crops (grapes) The Valley of Pisco can potentially fulfill current and future pisco grapes demand and minimize crop replacement Fallow land is so abundant that a possible agricultural expansion is unlikely to occur
Acknowledgement and contact information Dirección General de Investigación (DGI), from the PUCP, for funding this project Juan Pablo Bentín, from Valle y Pampa Agroindustrial Company, for the consulting Gustavo Larrea-Gallegos : Ian Vázquez-Rowe : Ramzy Kahhat : Hugo Wiener : glarrea@pucp.pe ian.vazquez@pucp.pe ramzy.kahhat@pucp.pe hwiener@pucp.pe