China Hotspots Dryness has increased across central and eastern North China Plain. Improvements will be limited to north-central areas this week as dry weather and warm temperatures increase stress on crop growth in eastern North China Plain. Rains should ease some of the dryness in eastern Yangtze Valley, however. China Vegetative Health Index (VHI) China Change in VHI from Last Year
Past Week Rainfall (mm) Northeast China and North China Plain Northeast China (Manchuria) PAST WEEK: Showers favored south-central areas last week, with light showers favoring western locales. FORECAST: Showers should primarily favor eastern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Continued showers in eastern areas will maintain plenty of moisture there for corn and soybean germination, but dryness will continue across the western tier of the region. Precip % Normal-Past 45 Days North China Plain Past Week Temp Departure ( C) PAST WEEK: Spotty showers favored northcentral areas last week. FORECAST: Light showers will be limited to northern areas the next several days, but heavier showers are possible in western and central areas early next week. CROP IMPACT: Dryness will continue to build across eastern and central North China Plain the next several days as the pattern remains dry and temperatures remain warm. Some relief is possible early in the 6-10 day period across western areas, however. % of Total Chinese Crop Produced in Each Region Crop Northeast China North China Plain Corn 40% 40% Soybeans 40% 35% Wheat 10% 60% Cotton 0% 55% Rice 5% 5% Groundnuts 0% 65% Rapeseed 0% 5%
Past Week Rainfall (mm) Yangtze Valley and South China Yangtze Valley PAST WEEK: Dry weather prevailed last week. FORECAST: Rains should favor western and southern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Dry weather last week allowed dryness to redevelop over southern and western areas. Increasing rains this week should ease some of the dryness in southern areas, but dryness will maintain some stress on corn and soybeans in northeastern and western areas. Precip % Normal-Past 45 Days South China PAST WEEK: Showers were limited to eastern areas last week. FORECAST: Rains should build across the region this week. CROP IMPACT: Increasing rains across the region should noticeably improve moisture in advance of rice and groundnut growth. Past Week Temp Departure ( C) % of Total Chinese Crop Produced in Each Region Crop Yangtze Valley South China Corn 15% 5% Soybeans 20% 5% Wheat 30% 0% Cotton 35% 0% Rice 65% 25% Groundnuts 15% 20% Rapeseed 95% 0%
China 1-7 Day Forecast China 8-14 Day Forecast China Next Month Forecast
CROPCAST WHEAT FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE (T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER 2016 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 PERCENT ACTUAL PERCENT ACTUAL Inner Mongolia 810 820 4700 4750 3807 3895 0.0 0 2.3 88 Shanxi 810 820 4900 4950 3969 4059 0.0 0 2.3 90 Heilongjiang 910 920 4900 4950 4459 4554 0.0 0 2.1 95 Gansu 910 920 4900 4950 4459 4554 0.0 0 2.1 95 Hubei 1050 1065 5400 5450 5670 5804 0.0 0 2.4 134 Xinjiang 1015 1025 5300 5350 5380 5484 0.0 0 1.9 104 Shaanxi 1175 1200 5300 5350 6228 6420 0.0 0 3.1 193 Sichuan 1800 1825 5500 5550 9900 10129 0.0 0 2.3 229 Anhui 1810 1825 5500 5550 9955 10129 0.0 0 1.7 174 Jiangsu 2260 2275 5300 5350 11978 12171 0.0 0 1.6 193 Hebei 2550 2600 5400 5450 13770 14170 0.0 0 2.9 400 Henan 4525 4550 5400 5450 24435 24798 0.0 0 1.5 363 Shandong 4750 4800 5400 5450 25650 26160 0.0 0 2.0 510 CHINA 24375 24645 5319 5369 129659 132326 0.0 0 2.1 2667 CROPCAST RICE FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Guizhou 775 750 6450 6460 4999 4845 0.0 0-3.1-154 Yunnan 850 825 6300 6325 5355 5218 0.0 0-2.6-137 Heilongjiang 980 975 6300 6325 6174 6167 0.0 0-0.1-7 Fujian 1600 1575 6500 6515 10400 10261 0.0 0-1.3-139 Guangxi 2700 2675 6350 6360 17145 17013 0.0 0-0.8-132 Zhejiang 2950 2925 6675 6685 19691 19554 0.0 0-0.7-138 Anhui 2050 2025 6900 6925 14145 14023 0.0 0-0.9-122 Guangdong 4000 3975 6650 6675 26600 26533 0.0 0-0.3-67 Jiangxi 2425 2400 6825 6850 16551 16440 0.0 0-0.7-111 Hubei 2735 2700 7000 7015 19145 18941 0.0 0-1.1-205 Jiangsu 2815 2800 6900 6925 19424 19390 0.0 0-0.2-34 Sichuan 3235 3200 6975 7000 22564 22400 0.0 0-0.7-164 Hunan 3925 3900 6675 6700 26199 26130 0.0 0-0.3-69 CHINA 31040 30725 6714 6734 208392 206915 0.0 0-0.7-1477 (1) MULTIPLY BY 0.7 TO GET MILLLED RICE ESTIMATE
CROPCAST SOYBEANS FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Jiangxi 130 160 1950 2050 254 328 0.0 0 29.4 75 Shaanxi 130 160 1950 2000 254 320 0.0 0 26.2 67 Sichuan 160 180 1950 2000 312 360 0.0 0 15.4 48 Hubei 160 180 1950 1950 312 351 0.0 0 12.5 39 Hunan 160 180 1925 2000 308 360 0.0 0 16.9 52 Liaoning 210 230 1875 1850 394 426 0.0 0 8.1 32 Jiangsu 235 280 1850 1850 435 518 0.0 0 19.1 83 Anhui 410 460 1850 1850 759 851 0.0 0 12.2 93 Hebei 460 510 1875 1950 863 995 0.0 0 15.3 132 Inner Mongolia 460 510 1650 1600 759 816 0.0 0 7.5 57 Jilin 460 510 1750 1700 805 867 0.0 0 7.7 62 Henan 510 560 1850 1850 944 1036 0.0 0 9.8 93 Shandong 610 660 1950 1975 1190 1304 0.0 0 9.6 114 Heilongjiang 2500 2535 1800 1775 4500 4500 0.0 0 0.0 0 CHINA 6595 7115 1833 1831 12086 13030 0.0 0 7.8 945 CROPCAST CORN FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Anhui 1100 1050 5825 5650 6408 5933 0.0 0-7.4-475 Xinjiang 1100 1050 6600 6650 7260 6983 0.0 0-3.8-278 Guizhou 1250 1150 5900 5950 7375 6843 0.0 0-7.2-533 Jiangsu 1250 1150 6025 5800 7531 6670 0.0 0-11.4-861 Yunnan 1525 1450 5450 5475 8311 7939 0.0 0-4.5-373 Shaanxi 1525 1450 5750 5600 8769 8120 0.0 0-7.4-649 Shanxi 1700 1650 5875 5925 9988 9776 0.0 0-2.1-211 Nei Mongol 2400 2350 5100 4850 12240 11398 0.0 0-6.9-843 Sichuan 2600 2550 6275 6325 16315 16129 0.0 0-1.1-186 Liaoning 2825 2650 5950 5800 16809 15370 0.0 0-8.6-1439 Henan 3300 3250 6150 6000 20295 19500 0.0 0-3.9-795 Hebei 3700 3650 5875 5900 21738 21535 0.0 0-0.9-203 Heilongjiang 4150 4050 5900 5700 24485 23085 0.0 0-5.7-1400 Shandong 4600 4550 6250 6200 28750 28210 0.0 0-1.9-540 Jilin 4750 4650 5850 5650 27788 26273 0.0 0-5.5-1515 CHINA 37775 36650 5931 5833 224060 213761 0.0 0-4.6-10299
CROPCAST RAPESEED FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2017 PRODUCTION CHANGE (T HA) (KG/HA) (TMT) OVER PAST WK OVER 2016 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 PERCENT ACTUAL PERCENT ACTUAL Shaanxi 315 310 1925 1950 606 605 0.0 0-0.3-2 Henan 315 310 1975 2000 622 620 0.0 0-0.3-2 Zhejiang 580 575 2000 2050 1160 1179 0.0 0 1.6 19 Guizhou 580 575 1800 1850 1044 1064 0.0 0 1.9 20 Jiangxi 480 475 1975 2000 948 950 0.0 0 0.2 2 Hunan 730 725 1975 2000 1442 1450 0.0 0 0.6 8 Jiangsu 930 925 1950 2000 1814 1850 0.0 0 2.0 37 Sichuan 1425 1400 2000 2050 2850 2870 0.0 0 0.7 20 Hubei 825 815 1750 1800 1444 1467 0.0 0 1.6 23 Anhui 950 935 2000 2050 1900 1917 0.0 0 0.9 17 CHINA 7130 7045 1940 1983 13830 13971 0.0 0 1.0 141 CROPCAST COTTONSEED FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Sichuan 70 45 2700 3050 189 137 0.0 0-27.4-52 Jiangxi 78 55 2700 3050 211 168 0.0 0-20.3-43 Hunan 140 110 2700 3050 378 336 0.0 0-11.2-43 Anhui 180 120 2700 3050 486 366 0.0 0-24.7-120 Hebei 220 170 2700 3050 594 519 0.0 0-12.7-76 Shandong 400 330 2700 3050 1080 1007 0.0 0-6.8-74 Hubei 400 330 2700 3050 1080 1007 0.0 0-6.8-74 Jiangsu 400 330 2700 3050 1080 1007 0.0 0-6.8-74 Henan 750 685 2700 3050 2025 2089 0.0 0 3.2 64 Xinjiang 800 740 2800 3100 2240 2294 0.0 0 2.4 54 CHINA 3438 2915 2723 3063 9363 8928 0.0 0-4.6-435
CROPCAST PEANUTS FORECAST FOR CHINA AREA YIELD PRODUCTION 2016 PRODUCTION CHANGE Hunan 100 110 3600 3625 360 399 0.0 0 10.8 39 Fujian 100 110 3600 3625 360 399 0.0 0 10.8 39 Hubei 150 160 3675 3700 551 592 0.0 0 7.4 41 Sichuan 175 185 3650 3700 639 685 0.0 0 7.2 46 Jiangxi 175 185 3750 3800 656 703 0.0 0 7.1 47 Guangxi 200 220 3650 3700 730 814 0.0 0 11.5 84 Jiangsu 200 220 3600 3650 720 803 0.0 0 11.5 83 Anhui 225 240 3375 3400 759 816 0.0 0 7.5 57 Guangdong 325 350 3475 3500 1129 1225 0.0 0 8.5 96 Hebei 500 510 3400 3450 1700 1760 0.0 0 3.5 60 Henan 1000 1020 4000 4050 4000 4131 0.0 0 3.3 131 Shandong 1350 1375 3375 3400 4556 4675 0.0 0 2.6 119 CHINA 4500 4685 3591 3629 16161 17001 0.0 0 5.2 839 China Regions North China Plain Yangtze River Valley Manchuria South