SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFLUENCE OF MEDITERRANEAN SEA ON VITICULTURE SITE VALENCIA DO Speaker: Igor Sirnik Supervisors: Hervé Quénol (Université Rennes 2, France), Miguel Ángel Jiménez-Bello (Universidad Politécnica de Valencia) and Juan Manzano (Universidad Politécnica de Valencia) Valencia, 24.10.2016
The facts France: during the last 25 years, the harvest time moved from late October to early September. By the 2050 by the worst case scenario, the 85% decrease in wine production in Bordeaux, Rhone, and Toscany region. South Africa by the 2050, expected 55% descrease in wine production. English wine is back! 400 commercial wineayards, sparkling wines are beating the French rivals. Source: Theguardian
Context The climate change has an impact on viticulture in function of: Evolution of vine growing and its characteristics. Evolution differs according to a different location of regions in accordance with local topographical characteristics. Necessity of adaptation.
Methodology Analyse of historical meteorological data retrieved from weather stations. Data retrieved: daily temperature (min, max, mean) and daily precipitation. Bioclimatic indexes analysis. Confrontation of historical data to modelized data in function of climate change (RCP scenarios) for historical and future period. Uncertainty, data analysis, critical approach to data analysis;
Valencia DO Source: IVIA, 2016
Teruel Location of weather stations on study site Valencia DO, Spain with available data Castellon Llíria Study site Valencia DO Cerrito Cheste Albacete Valencia airport Station name Valencia Benifaio airport Albacete Castellon Benifaio Teruel Cerrito Lliria Cheste Daily temperature data 1965-2014 Elevation Distence from sea 69m 14km 1914-2013 1937-2013 1999-2014 1986-2013 2000-2014 2000-2014 1999-2014 686m 30m 35m 915m 810m 172m 110m 140km 9km 12km 104km 57km 28km 31km
Topographic profiles: meteorological stations toward Mediterranean sea Valencia airport Valencia airport Albacete Albacete
Progress of minimum and maximum temperature 25.0 Tmax_VLC_AIR Tmax_Albacete 24.0 +1.6 C 23.0 22.0 21.0 14.0 13.0 Tmin_VLC_AIR Tmin_Albacete +1.6 C 19.0 12.0 11.0 18.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 20.0 +2.5 C +1.9 C
Progress of mean temperature for study period 1965-2013 Meteorological station Increase of mean temeprature [ C] VLC_air 1.6 Albacete 2.2 19.0 18.0 +1.6 C 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 +2.2 C
WINKLER index HUGLIN index k= 1.02 Huglin class Very cold Index points 5 Cold Cool Warm Wine varieties Muller-Thurgau, Pinot blanc, Gamay, Gewurztraminer 1500-1800 Riesling, Pinot noir, Chardonnay, Merlot, Cabernet franc 1800-2100 Cabernet-Sauvignon, Ugni Blanc, Syrah 2100-2400 Grenache, Mourvèdre, Carignan 2400-3000 Potential which exceeds the heliothermal needs to ripen the varieties, even the late ones (with some associated risks of stress) Hot Very hot >3000 There is no heliothermal constraint for the grapes to ripen Region Index points Wine varieties Region I 850-1389 pinot noir, riesling, chardonnay, gewurztraminer, pinot grigio sauvignon blanc Region II 1389-1667 cabernet sauvignon, chardonnay, merlot, semillon, syrah Region III 1671-1950 grenache, barbera, tempranillo, syrah, Region IV 1951-2220 carignan, cinsault, mourvedre, tempranillo Region V >2221 pri itivo, ero d avola, palomino, fiano
3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 +388.08 Progress of bioclimatic indexes 1965-2013 +470.55 Winkler progress 2800 Huglin progress 2600 +452.35 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 +531.36
Analysis of average temperature and average bioclimatic indexes increase during 1965-2013 Valencia DO [ C] Temperature mean 1,9 Temperature minimum 2,0 Temperature maximum 1,8 HUGLIN Valencia DO [bioclimatic points] 429,3 WINKLER 491,9
300 250 100 SOMMER (2) 200 FALL (3) 350 700 300 600 200 250 500 150 150 300 100 200 50 50 100 0 0 0 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Valencia_airport 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 SPRING (1) 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Precipitation in seasons Valencia airport 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 WINTER (4) 300 250 200 400 150 100 50 0
The rise of temperature trend on all weather stations in the study period Valencia airport The highest increase (2.17 C) was detected on weather stations Albacete weather station Albacete The average rise of temperature at Valencia site: +1.88 C The increase of Huglin and Winkler index at all weather stations Precipitation decrease was noticed especially in fall season
Temperature analysis in Valencia study site: observed and modeled data Used four stations for analysis Historical data: 1963-2013 Euro-Cordex data CMIP5, rcp8.5: 1985-2100 Resolution: 0,11
Temperature progress in Valencia DO: observation and simulation (rcp8.5) [ C] +4.9 C 26 24 +1.7 C 22 20 18 Tmin_observation Tmin_simulation Tmax_observation Tmax_simulation 16 +4.5 C 14 +2.0 C 12 10 2097 2093 2089 2085 2081 2077 2073 2069 2065 2061 2057 2053 2049 2045 2041 2037 2033 2029 2025 2021 2017 2013 2009 2005 2001 1997 1993 1989 1985 1981 1977 1973 1969 1965 8
Minimum temperature progress observations and simulation (rcp8.5) detail in Valencia DO (1985 2013) [ C] 23.5 23 Detail of maximum temperature progress Observed rcp85 22.5 22 21.5 21 20.5 20 [ C] Detail of minimum temperature progress 12.5 12 Observed rcp85 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 Average difference: 1,5 C Average difference: 1,1 C
Valencia DO average temperature progress 21 Valencia_observations 20 Valencia_rcp85 +4.7 C 19 18 +1.8 C 17 16 15 14 1963 1983 2003 2023 2043 2063 2083 2100
Limitations of comparison between observed and modelized data Uncertainties linked to the climate models = it is impossible to validate future of climate data. Climate model is a simplified representation of a climate system. Spatial resolution of the climate models is far higher in comparison to observed data on meteorological stations (point Vs. 0,11 degree net).
Conclusion Temperature and bioclimatic indexes increase in the last five decades, decrease of precipitation. Simulated rcp8.5 scenarios significant increase of temperatures. Future steps: Precipitation analysis simulation 1985 2100, rcp4.5 scenario; Usage of all available weather stations for further climate change analysis. The outcome of this research will be beneficiary for understanding local climate conditions. Possible adaptation scenarios: other varieties, changing fertilizers, changing location, irrigation,.. Comparative analysis with a second viticulture site: Brda wine region in Slovenia.
Thank you all for your attention Contact: igsir@topo.upv.es