THE POWER OF BAKERY CATEGORIES Todd Hale Retail Insights Thought Leader Principal, Todd Hale, LLC March 30, 2015
DRIVING GROWTH IN DYNAMIC TIMES Staying connected with winning retailers & categories Engaging in digital retailing & digital shopping Winning the trip through precision marketing & sales focused against shoppers that matter Driving the health & wellness growth wave Winning the occasion 2
BREAD & BAKED GOODS TRENDS SIMILAR TO TOTAL STORE VIEW, BUT UNITS ARE UP! Bread & Baked Goods Fresh, Frozen & Refrigerated Dollar Sales Unit Volume Billions $43 $45 $46 $46 $47 20 20 20 20 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Dollar Trend +4 +2 +2 +1 Unit Trend +0 +0 +1 +1 How can the industry collaborate to enhance sales growth? Source: Nielsen Answers, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), All Departments, All Brands, % Change, 52 week periods vs. year ago 5
INFLATION & DEMAND DRIVING GROWTH All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience) Dollar Trend Meat Deli Dairy Produce Alcohol Health Care Personal Care Bakery Grocery Beauty Care Pet Care Tobacco & Alternatives Household Care Frozen Foods General Merchandise Total All Departments -4 Perimeter departments growing, while center store departments struggle Source: Nielsen Answers, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), 52 weeks ending 12/27/2014 (vs. year ago), UPC-coded 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 8 23
FOUR CATEGORIES WITH SALES IN EXCESS OF $5 BILLION; TOP SEVEN WITH $36.2 BILLION IN SALES Fresh Bread & Baked Goods: Dollar Sales Bread Cookies Crackers Snack Cake Rolls & Buns Cake Mexican Shells Pastries Bagel English Muffin Fresh Pies Muffin Ice Cream Cones $0 $5,000 $10,000 Millions Source: Nielsen Answers, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), 52 weeks ending 12/27/2014 25
MOST FRESH BREAD & BAKED GOODS CATEGORIES WITH SHORT-TERM GROWTH Fresh Bread & Baked Goods: Latest Year (% change in $ Sales) Snack Cake Mexican Shells English Muffin Muffin Cookies Fresh Pies Bagel Rolls & Buns Cake Crackers Bread Pastries Ice Cream Cones -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Fastest short-term growth from Sweeter Goods, Mexican Shells & English Muffins Source: Nielsen Answers, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (plus Convenience), 52 weeks ending 12/27/2014 27
SHAKING UP THE AISLE Is it time to convert trade spend to capex spend? Source: http://vmsd.com/content/mega-foods-eau-claire-wis; Photography: Mark A. Steele Photography, Columbus, Ohio; Note: capex = capital expenditures 42
SOME DIVERSITY IN DEMAND ACROSS AGE Age of Female Head: $ Buying Rate Index Index < or = to 85 Index > or = to 115 Source: Nielsen Homescan, 52 w/e 12/27/2014 <35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ English Muffins - Dairy 79 79 80 97 133 Frozen Pie 83 82 96 103 117 Cookies 83 105 107 107 106 Bread 88 103 105 106 108 Bagel 90 105 108 103 92 Hot Dog Bun 93 108 105 101 90 Crackers 98 120 111 99 95 Frozen Garlic Bread 106 112 101 93 92 Mexican Shells 110 120 104 86 80 Where is your category or brand connecting? > Universal Appeal 47
WALMART INVESTING IN DRIVE THROUGH GROCERY PICK UP Sources: Forbes.com & Walmart (photos) Bentonville, Arkansas The test concept, which is a free service, allows customers to place their orders online any time from two hours to three weeks in advance. Customers drive to the Walmart Pickup Grocery warehouse and use a kiosk to notify attendants that they are ready to pick up their orders. Walmart associates bring orders out to customers cars. In total, shoppers have about 10,000 items to choose from, including dairy, meat and produce as well as HBC and household items. Forbes.com Oct. 2, 2014 65
BREAD & BAKED GOODS # 1 DRIVER OF SMALL TO LARGE TRIPS All Outlet Trips Top Five Categories by Trip Type Ranking of Purchase Occasions IMMEDIATE FILL-IN ROUTINE STOCK-UP Bread & Baked Goods Bread & Baked Goods Bread & Baked Goods Bread & Baked Goods Snacks Snacks Snacks Snacks Milk Milk Fresh Produce Fresh Produce Candy Fresh Produce Milk Cheese Carbonated Beverages Cheese Cheese Milk Are Bread & Baked Goods receiving enough retail attention? Source: Nielsen Homescan, Total U.S. 52-week ending 12/27/2014, excludes gas only or Rx only trips 70