May 2010 CCP:TE 10/CRS 19 E COMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS INTERGOVERNMENTAL GROUP ON TEA NINETEENTH SESSION New Delhi, India, 12 14 May 2010 MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES INDIA
Indian Tea- Market Developments FAO IGG Meet
Tea Market Construct
With 95% penetration, tea is perhaps the most penetrated beverage in India Tea penetration in India 95% Branded Tea penetration in India 85% Unbranded Tea penetration in India 50% Penetration figures for FY 09 Source: IMRB Household Panel
The landscape Unbranded tea still command more than half of the Indian tea market Volumes in Mil Kgs Domestic tea market size 817 Mil Kgs 380 437 Branded Tea Unbranded Tea Economy segment is the largest within branded tea segments 78 Volumes in Mil Kgs Branded tea market size 380 Mil Kgs 190 112 Source: Nielsen retail audit, IMRB HHP and Tata tea internal estimates Economy (MRP below Rs 200) Popular (MRP Rs 200 to 280) Premium (MRP Rs 280+)
Category Dynamics
Branded tea is witnessing decline in growth rates; Unbranded tea has seen volume de growth in current FY Packet Tea Volume Growth Rate (%) 10.7 Unbranded Tea Volume Growth Rate (%) 2 5 5.7 3.4 0.7 1.4 FY 07 Vs 06 FY 08 Vs 07 FY 09 Vs 08 FY 07 Vs 06 FY 08 Vs 07 FY 09 Vs 08 IMRB Household Panel Nielsen Retail Audit -1 IMRB Household Panel -1.2 Both branded and unbranded tea are under pressure on volume front
Decrease in average household tea consumption is emerging as primary cause of declining growth rates Average household tea consumption 198 196 194 186 186 182 Loose tea conversion gains for branded tea 3309 2614 1142 FY 07 Vs 06 FY 08 Vs 07 FY 09 Vs 08 FY 07 Vs 06 FY 08 Vs 07 FY 09 Vs 08 Unbranded Tea Branded Tea Gains in tons Unit per household per month in grams Both branded and unbranded tea are witnessing decline in average monthly household consumption. Branded tea continues to gain from loose tea conversions
Local players have increased their value shares considerably in the current FY. Moving Annual Value Shares (%) 26% 25% 25% 24% 32% 31% 30% 33% 42% 44% 45% 43% Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 Mar'10 National players Local Players Regional Players Source: Nielsen retail audit
What is causing the recent pressure on tea consumption General inflationary situation? Inflation (based on WPI with base 1993-94) and growth rate in food output (%) Item Food commodities Milk group Sugar 2005 2.97 0.73 15.09 2006 5.09 4.48 4.83 2007 5.60 8.17-14.69 2008 7.87 7.87 5.62 2009 12.90 8.93 36.34 2010 January 19.42 13.99 58.94 Average 2006-09 Sources: Office of Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GOI, New Delhi. Average Price/Kg in INR 7.86 7.36 8.02 169 169 170 174 182 195 198 206 213 Oct- Dec'07 Jan- Mar'08 Apr- Jun'08 Jul- Sept'08 Oct- Dec'08 Jan- Mar'09 Apr- Jun'09 Jul- Sept'09 Oct- Dec'09 Source: Nielsen retail Audit PACKAGED TEA Tea and complimentary industries are witnessing steep inflationary pressure
Market Expansion Strategies
Cascade of wellness messaging Robust GDP growth Growing Rural Opportunity Potential Growth Drivers for Tea Increase appeal among youth Growing middle class Value added variants/exciting offerings
Robust GDP growth 29745 17620 Per capita indicators in INR 38695 34533 37328 32012 23012 20168 21841 18909 40745 23626 9.5 GDP growth rates (%) 9.7 9.2 6.7 7.2 Source: CSO 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Annual Per Capita Income Annual Per Capita Consumption 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 With GDP growth rates back on track, Indian consumers is likely to have more spending power with him now.
The rise and rise of Indian middle (consuming) class Source: MGI
The Rural Opportunity More than 6 lakh villages Rural market for FMCG products is growing much faster than the urban counterpart 145 million households Nearly half of India's middleclass More than 60 % of the total disposable income 72% of total Indian population Source IRS 2009 R1, NCAER Research Data
Increase Appeal Among Youth Indian population is becoming younger over the decades. Young India provides immense growth opportunity for the category Changes in Population Pyramid-India (2001-2016) Need to make tea connect better with youth (as coffee is doing driven by its imagery/coffee cafes) Source: Nielsen India
Advertising of tea brands largely in the space of family, in home, serious.
..whereas coffee connects better with youth / fun.
Cascade of wellness benefit of tea Increasing trend of adoption of healthier foods and beverages by consumers Awareness of wellness benefit of tea largely confined to educated urban consumers Cascade of this messaging to masses / rural consumers will drive consumption
Value added variants/exciting offerings Tea in value added formats and new exciting variants will increase its appeal as well as consumption occasions Changes in regulatory framework can facilitate tapping of such opportunities even more.
Lets Make Tea everybody's cuppa
Thank you for your attention..