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Transcription:

Trade Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Million tonnes Production & Stocks Weather conditions Focus on winter crops Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 136 tons) Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 136tons) Prices Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 5 tons) Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 127 tons) DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS Export prices FOB wheat durum wheat barley maize 19 Jul 217 m/m variation y/y variation /t $/t /t $/t /t $/t US Gulf (SRW) 178 25 3% 6% 11% 16% US Gulf (HRW) 199 229-9% -6% 18% 23% EU Rouen (grade 1) 169 194-1% 2% 2% 7% CA St Lawrence (CWAD) n.q. n.q. - - - - EU Port-la-Nouvelle n.q. n.q. - - - - Black sea (feed) 142 164 3% 6% 8% 13% EU Rouen (feed) 147 169-1% 2% 6% 11% US Gulf (3YC) 142 164-1% 2% -1% -5% EU Bordeaux 171 198-2% 1% -2% 3% soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 334 386 4% 8% -11% -7% 2 /t 19 18 17 16 15 Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob) 14 3 2 1 US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea World production (million tonnes) 249 125 735 187 174 17 348 cereals maize wheat soybeans 214/15 215/16 (est) 216/17 (f'cast) 217/18 (proj.) 19 /t 18 17 16 15 Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob) 174 154 14 143 4 3 2 1 US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea EU production (million tonnes) 298 139 62 57 cereals wheat maize barley 214/15 215/16 216/17 (est) 217/18 (f'cast) Last update: 2.7.217 EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 6 days CME US maize & soybeans futures - 6 days Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 SEP'17: 171 MAR'18: 182 SEP'18: 183 Daily Volume Euronext milling wheat futures /t 2 185 17 155 14 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 35 3 25 2 15 1 SEP'17: 185 MAR'18: 21 SEP'18: 21 Daily volume 24 $/t 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 15 5 14 Chicago (CME) SRW futures 13 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 12 15 9 75 6 45 3 SEP'17: 151 MAR'18: 16 SEP'18: 164 Daily volume 18 $/t 175 17 165 16 155 15 145 14 15 CME Maize futures 135 13 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 5 4 3 2 1 AUG'17: 367 SEP'17: 369 NOV'17: 372 Daily volume 39 $/t 38 37 36 35 34 Chicago soybeans futures 33 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 $ 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 $/barrel 7 6 5 4 Brent Crude Oil 3 14 12 1 8 6 4 Exchange rate vs $ Freight (Baltic dry index) 2 1.14 48 872 World stocks (million tonnes) 6 48 4 199 241 2 41 cereals maize wheat soybeans 214/15 215/16 (est) 216/17 (f'cast) 217/18 (proj.) 6 5 4 3 2 1 EU stocks (million tonnes) 35 11 13 6 cereals wheat maize barley 214/15 215/16 216/17 (est) 217/18 (f'cast) 12 9 6 3 Common wheat & flour - exports Weekly volume (current MY) 217/18.5Mt 216/17 3 24.6 2 1 4 3 2 1 Barley, malt included - exports Weekly volume (current MY) 217/18.3Mt 216/17 12 8.1 8 4 6 5 4 3 2 1 Weekly volume (current MY) Maize - imports 217/18.6Mt 216/17 16 12.9 12 8 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 Cereals: 17 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries) Coarse grain exports Wheat exports Trade balance Wheat imports Coarse grain imports 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI, DG TAXUD), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek Marketing Year (July-June)

Export prices FOB wheat durum wheat barley maize 19 Jul 217 m/m variation y/y variation /t $/t /t $/t /t $/t US Gulf (SRW) 178 25 3% 6% 11% 16% US Gulf (HRW) 199 229-9% -6% 18% 23% EU Rouen (grade 1) 169 194-1% 2% 2% 7% CA St Lawrence (CWAD) n.q. n.q. - - - - EU Port-la-Nouvelle n.q. n.q. - - - - Black sea (feed) 142 164 3% 6% 8% 13% EU Rouen (feed) 147 169-1% 2% 6% 11% US Gulf (3YC) 142 164-1% 2% -1% -5% EU Bordeaux 171 198-2% 1% -2% 3% soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 334 386 4% 8% -11% -7% Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer

2 /t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob) 19 18 17 16 187 174 17 15 14 US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea Source: International Grains Council

19 /t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob) 18 17 16 15 174 154 14 143 US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer

3 2 World production (million tonnes) 249 1 125 735 348 cereals maize wheat soybeans 214/15 215/16 (est) 216/17 (f'cast) 217/18 (proj.) Source: International Grains Council

4 3 2 1 EU production (million tonnes) 298 139 62 57 cereals wheat maize barley 214/15 215/16 216/17 (est) 217/18 (f'cast) Source: European Commission DG AGRI

6 48 World stocks (million tonnes) 4 2 199 241 41 cereals maize wheat soybeans 214/15 215/16 (est) 216/17 (f'cast) 217/18 (proj.) Source: International Grains Council

6 5 4 3 2 1 EU stocks (million tonnes) 35 11 13 6 cereals wheat maize barley 214/15 215/16 216/17 (est) 217/18 (f'cast) Source: European Commission DG AGRI

Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 5 tons) Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 136 tons) EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 6 days 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 SEP'17: 171 MAR'18: 182 SEP'18: 183 Daily Volume Euronext milling wheat futures /t 2 185 17 155 14 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 35 3 25 2 15 1 SEP'17: 185 MAR'18: 21 SEP'18: 21 Daily volume 24 $/t 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 15 5 14 Chicago (CME) SRW futures 13 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 Source: MATIF Source: CME

Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 127 tons) Daily traded volume (1 contracts of 136tons) CME US maize & soybeans futures - 6 days 12 15 9 75 6 45 3 15 SEP'17: 151 MAR'18: 16 SEP'18: 164 Daily volume CME Maize futures 18 $/t 175 17 165 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 Source: CME 5 4 3 2 1 AUG'17: 367 SEP'17: 369 NOV'17: 372 Daily volume 39 $/t 38 37 36 35 34 Chicago soybeans futures 33 2/5 3/5 9/6 19/6 29/6 9/7 19/7 Source: CME

Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight $ 1.14 Exchange rate vs $ 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Source: European Central Bank $/barrel 7 6 Brent Crude Oil 14 12 1 Freight (Baltic dry index) 872 8 6 4 2 Source: The Baltic Exchange 5 4 48 3 Source: Intercontinental Exchange

Source: European Commission DG JRC

Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Common wheat & flour - exports 12 3 9 Weekly volum e (current MY) 217/18.5Mt 216/17 24.6 2 6 1 3 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek Source: European Commission DG TAXUD

Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes 4 Barley, malt included - exports 12 3 Weekly volum e (current MY) 217/18.3Mt 8.1 8 2 216/17 1 4 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek Source: European Commission DG TAXUD

Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Maize - imports 6 5 4 Weekly volum e (current MY) 217/18.6Mt 216/17 16 12.9 12 3 8 2 4 1 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 w eek Source: European Commission DG TAXUD

Million tonnes Cereals: 17 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries) 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 Coarse grain exports Wheat exports Trade balance Wheat imports Coarse grain imports Marketing Year (July-June) Source: Eurostat