Trends in North American Strawberry Production & Supply by Tom Sjulin, Consultant Presented at the International Strawberry Congress Antwerp, Belgium 1 September 2010 1
Objectives Review North American production trends Identify changes in demand, systems and supply that are driving production trends Project future production trends in light of expected consumption trends Identify factors affecting the sustainability of North American production Data sources: FAO, USDA, CSC, PSAB 2
Strawberry Production Trends Production continues to grow in the major production areas Demand continues to grow, especially in off-season production windows Strawberries are available in good supply all year in North American markets New technologies & new production areas are impacting production Threats to traditional production areas loom on the horizon 3
N. AMERICAN STRAWBERRY PRODUCTION, 1988-2008 1,400,000 U.S.A. MEXICO CANADA 1,200,000 1,000,000 Source: FAO METRIC TONS 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 4
25,000 NORTH AMERICAN STRAWBERRIES - AREA HARVESTED 1988-2008 U.S.A. MEXICO CANADA 20,000 HECTA ARES 15,000 10,000 5000 5,000 0 Source: FAO 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 5
U.S. Utilized Strawberry Production, 1989-2009 1,400,000 Fresh Processed 1,200,000 1,000,000 Tons Metric 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Source: USDA-ERS 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 6
U.S. Strawberry Production Value, 1989-2009 $2,500 Fresh Processed $2,000 Million Dollars $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Source: USDA-ERS 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 7
60 U.S. STRAWBERRIES - YIELD, 1989-2009 50 YIELD (mt/ha) 40 30 20 Source: USDA-ERS 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 8
MET TRIC TONS pe er HECTARE 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: USDA-ERS U.S. STRAWBERRIES - YIELD by STATE 1989 1999 2009 CALIFORNIA FLORIDA OTHER 9
HECTAR RES 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 U.S. STRAWBERRIES - HARVESTED AREA by STATE Source: USDA-ERS 1989 1999 2009 Production has shifted to states with higher yields (California i & Florida) CALIFORNIA FLORIDA OTHER 10
Primary North American Strawberry Production Regions Wats-Salinas Sta Maria Oxnard Orange- S. Diego N. Baja Plant City, Fla S. Baja Guanajuato Jalisco Michoacan 11
4.0 3.5 US Per Capita Consumption of Strawberries, 1988-2008 Fresh Frozen Per Capita Con nsumption (kg) 3.0 2.5 20 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 SOURCE: USDA-ERS 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 12
16 14 US Per Capita Consumption of Selected Fresh Fruits Bananas Apples Strawberries Per Capita Con nsumption (kg) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 SOURCE: USDA-ERS 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 13
Drivers of Change Berry consumption is part of a healthy lifestyle Strawberries are no longer perceived as a seasonal product Demand for off-season fruit has increased as supplies have increased Innovative growers and researchers have developed new technologies to meet this demand 14
Theme: Control of Flowering A constant theme underlying the changes in strawberry production has been the control flowering Control of flowering creates the opportunity to produce fruit when it is needed 15
Control of Flowering Flowering has historically been controlled by climate modification In North America, production has long been shifting to milder climates like Florida, California and Baja, where winter & spring flowering creates early and/or long season production 16
Newer Methods Used in North America to Control Flowering Day-Neutral Production Low Latitude Production 17
Day-Neutral Production Pioneering work by Royce Bringhurst at UC-Davis led to the introduction of the Selva variety in 1983 Doug Shaw s latest releases ( Albion, Monterey, Portola and San Andreas ) are much improved over older varieties Private programs are also introducing high-yielding day-neutral varieties with excellent fruit quality 18
Day-Neutral Production Improved day-neutral varieties have markedly increased summer & fall production in California Shift from short-day to day-neutral varieties, especially in the Santa Maria district, has broadened the California supply curve, leading to a more orderly flow of product into the markets 19
40,000 35,000 NORTH AMERICAN FRESH STRAWBERRY SHIPMENTS 1999 versus 2009 Source: USDA-AMS 2009 1999 ER WEEK METRIC TONS P 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 2009 Total = 1,038,000 metric tons 1999 Total = 593,000 metric tons 5,000 0 10-Jan 14-Feb 21-Mar 25-Apr 30-May 4-Jul 8-Aug 12-Sep 17-Oct 21-Nov 26-Dec WEEK ENDING DATE 20
Source: USDA-AMS 21
Increased Day-Neutral Acreage & Improved Varieties Increased Late-Season Fruit Source: USDA-AMS 22
Low Latitude Production Systems 23
Low Latitude Production North American production is lowest from mid-november to mid-february Southern California & Baja production is vulnerable to bad weather in this period Florida production does not peak until late February, and is a long distance from Western U.S. markets Could a winter production system in Central Mexico fill this gap? 24
6,000,000 5,000,000 NORTH AMERICAN STRAWBERRY SHIPMENTS OCT 2008 - MAR 2009 FLORIDA CAL TOTAL TRAYS PER WEEK 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Winter Supply Gap 1,000,000 Source: USDA-AMS 0 27-Sep 25-Oct 22-Nov 20-Dec 17-Jan WEEK ENDING DATE 14-Feb 14-Mar 25
Mexico fresh market exports to the U.S. Until recently, most exports to the U.S. from Mexico were produced in Baja California. Production systems and varieties were drawn from Southern California, and timing was somewhat earlier, but it did not fill the winter gap. 26
Low Latitude Production Central Mexico has a long history of strawberry production, but most fruit was marketed within Mexico or processed for export The traditional system is a low-input, open-field system using Florida or California varieties Production is centered around lowlatitude, high-elevation regions 27
Low Latitude Production Yields in traditional Central Mexico systems were low, fruit was small, and production did not peak until March CentralMexicohadmuchtoofferasa to offer as a winter production region: Truck shipments to the U.S. Existing base of strawberry growers Land, labor and a mild, predictable winter climate 28
Proximity of Central Mexico Shipping Points to U.S. Markets 2000 miles 1100 miles 1000 miles 29
Low Latitude Production In the 1990 s, Driscoll s initiated research on a new production system based on high tunnels After many trials, a new system was developed that was a vast improvement in production, timing and quality The system takes advantage of the naturally occurring short daylengths in this low latitude region 30
Flowering in the Strawberry Many strawberry varieties are shortday types, which means that flowers initiate only when daylengths are below a critical point (the induction point). For most short-day varieties, the critical daylength is somewhere below 13.5 hours. Once the daylength is below the critical point, the plant begins to initiate flower primordia in the crown (induction). 31
Low Latitude Regions Areas of the world where daylengths remain below 13.5 hours 32
-No Low Latitude Areas Available 33
Low Latitude Production Few low-latitude latitude areas outside of Mexico have a history of strawberry production Many potential areas are unsuitable Hot & humid climates Politically unstable Logistical issues Some attempts in Kenya & Ethiopia 34
Low Latitude Production Driscoll s success in Central Mexico has created a surge in acreage by many grower-shipper groups Baja acreage has quickly declined Production begins & peaks about two months ahead of Florida Yields are more stable and potentially higher than Florida 35
Central Mexico Production Field in Early December 36
1,200,000 1,000,000 MEXICO STRAWBERRY SHIPMENTS to the U.S. OCTOBER through MARCH 2008-2009 SEASON 2004-2005 SEASON Baja Acres Down, Central Mex. Acres Up, Peak Shifts 6 Weeks Earlier WEEK TRAYS PER 800,000 600,000000 400,000 200,000000 Source: USDA-AMS 0 2-Oct 30-Oct 27-Nov 25-Dec 22-Jan 19-Feb 19-Mar WEEK ENDING DATE 37
2,500,000 2,000,000 MEXICO & FLORIDA STRAWBERRY SHIPMENTS OCTOBER 2008 through MARCH 2009 MEXICO FLORIDA Central Mexico Also Peaks Two Months Earlier Than Florida WEEK TRAYS PER 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Source: USDA-AMS 27-Sep 27-Oct 27-Nov 27-Dec 27-Jan 27-Feb 27-Mar WEEK ENDING DATE 38
WEEK TRAYS PER 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 NORTH AMERICAN STRAWBERRY SHIPMENTS OCT 2008 - MAR 2009 MEX TOTAL FLORIDA CAL TOTAL Central Mexico Production Helps Fill the Winter Gap 1,000,000 Source: USDA-AMS 0 27-Sep 25-Oct 22-Nov 20-Dec 17-Jan 14-Feb WEEK ENDING DATE 14-Mar 39
Future Production Trends I expect that the demand for strawberries will continue to increase I expect that Off-season production will continue to grow faster than main season production to fill supply gaps 40
North American Trends California growth is already slowing due to competition from Mexico and market saturation at supply peaks Central Mexico should grow rapidly, probably doubling in area under tunnels from 2,000 to 4,000 hectares over the next 5 to 6 years 41
North American Trends Good opportunities exist for growth in off-season organic production, as the organic supply is more seasonal that conventional production U.S. growers, with research support, are exploring alternative systems such as substrate and protected culture systems 42
Future Production Trends Plug Plant Production Plug Plant Production in High Tunnels North Carolina October, 2008 43
Raised Bed Trough Trials Filled with Substrate Research Sponsored by the California Strawberry Commission Steam Sterilization Trials 44
Threats to Sustainable Strawberry Production in North America Distance to Market Land Labor Water 45
Primary North American Strawberry Production Regions Wats-Salinas Sta Maria Oxnard Orange- S. Diego N. Baja Plant City, Fla S. Baja Guanajuato Jalisco Michoacan 46
Long Distances to Market Creates Opportunities for Local Production Day-neutral varieties combined with high tunnels may create opportunities for extended Pacific Northwest harvests Early flower initiation in plug plants may create autumn production opportunities under tunnels in North Carolina and Maryland 47
Land and Labor Land has been under development pressure in Florida and Southern California U.S. labor supply is affected by changes in border security and immigration policies Severe recession with collapse of building boom has temporarily eased land and labor issues 48
Water Water use by agriculture has long been debated, but few solutions exist Groundwater and surface waters are both important components of North American strawberry production, and long-term supplies are threatened Both Florida and California groundwater supplies are being overdrawn 49