WEEKLY OILSEED REPORT 27 JUNE 218 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : +27 11 692 44 Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183 INTERNATIONAL MARKET Table 1: CME Soybean prices and weekly change (cents/bushel) Currently 2/6/218 Weekly change Monthly change (c/bu) (c/bu) CME Jul-18 868 889 ½ -21 ½ -162 ½ CME Nov-18 888 91 ½ -22 ½ -154 ½ US soybean contracts traded lower in the past week with both the old and new crops coming under some pressure. On a monthly basis US soybean contracts are also trading sharply lower with CME July and November soybeans ending 15.7% and 14.8% lower in the past month. On the technical chart for July CME soybeans we see that the market traded sharply lower setting a new low of $8.41/bushels on the 19 th of June but the market has since pulled off that level. On the technical chart the moving averages and indicators remain under pressure but the market is oversold. US soybean prices were pressured by the ongoing trade war between the US and China with Chine being the major buyer of US soybeans. The favorable growing conditions seen in the season to date in the US Midwest and the current US soybean crop ratings are boosting yield prospects for the season ahead. The market is also looking towards the USDA acreage and stocks report due on Friday. US soybean market The USDA in their crop progress report indicated that 95% of the US soybean crop has emerged which is up from the 9% reported last week. The current rate of emergence is still ahead of the 5-year average seen at 89% emerged. The USDA in their report also indicated that 73% of the US soybean crop could be rated as good/excellent which is unchanged week/week. The current crop rating is well above the 66% rated as good/excellent the same time last year. From the graph below we see that the 218 % of the US soybean crop rated as good/excellent is seen at record highs for this time of the year. 7 Figure 1: US soybean crop conditions (% good/excellent) 72 72 67 67 66 73 5 4 57 53 3 2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 We did mention that the trade tension/war between the US and China has been a massive bearish factor for the US soybean market in the past few weeks on the uncertainty with regard to future sales to China. China is the largest buyer of soybeans in the global market. The graph below presents the US soybeans committed for exports this time of the year in the past few seasons.
5 4 3 2 Figure 2: US soybean export progress ( tons) 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 15 95 9 85 75 7 Exports commitments date ( tons) % of total exports (RHS) US Weather The weather conditions has been good in the US Midwest in the growing season to date with well above normal rainfall that was seen in most of the key areas in the month of June to date. This is also reflected in the US maize and soybean crop conditions. The extended 6-1 day forecast expects some more rainfall in the eastern parts of the Midwest while slightly drier conditions are possible in the western parts. The 6-1 day temperature forecast expects well above normal temperatures for the entire US Midwest. US 6-1 Day rainfall forecast US 6-1 Day temperature forecast USDA Acreage and stocks report USDA will release their June acreage and stocks report on Friday. The average market expectation of the US June 1 st soybean stock is seen at 1.225 billion bushels which is well above the 966 million bushels of soybeans in stock by June 1 st of 217. The average market expectation of the 218 US soybean area planted is seen at 89 691 million acres which is up from the March USDA estimate seen at 88.982 million acres. The average market expectation is down from the 9.142 million acres seen in 217. From the graph below we see that the market expectation for the 218 area estimate is the 2 nd largest on record and just short of the 217 soybean area planted. 2
17/9/1 17/9/15 17/9/29 17/1/13 17/1/27 17/11/1 17/11/24 17/12/8 17/12/22 18/1/5 18/1/19 18/2/2 18/2/16 18/3/2 18/3/16 18/3/3 18/4/13 18/4/27 18/5/11 18/5/25 18/6/8 18/6/22 /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 9.5 Figure 4: US Soybean area planted (million acres) 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. LOCAL OILSEED MARKET South African oilseeds ended mixed in the past week with July soybeans coming under pressure giving up 1.1% while July sunflower seed contracts managed to gain.6% in the past week. South African soybean contracts were pressured by the sharply lower US soybeans seen recently while the stronger rand seen in the past few trading sessions also added some pressure. The massive South African soybean crop and soybean stock position is another bearish factor for our market while the sunflower seed deliveries to date has been rather slow, which probably supported the sunflower seed market more than the soybean market. 5 Figure 5: Safex July sunflower seed and soybean prices 54 52 5 4 4 44 42 Jul Soy Jul Sun South African sunflower seed contracts once again outperformed the soybean market as mentioned earlier. This has resulted in the South African soybean/sunflower seed spread gaining some massive ground recently. The July soybean/sunflower seed spread is seen at R39/ton which is new highs for the July 218 contracts. 3
18/1/2 18/1/9 18/1/16 18/1/23 18/1/3 18/2/6 18/2/13 18/2/2 18/2/27 18/3/6 18/3/13 18/3/2 18/3/27 18/4/3 18/4/1 18/4/17 18/4/24 18/5/1 18/5/8 18/5/15 18/5/22 18/5/29 18/6/5 18/6/12 18/6/19 18/6/26 5 4 3 2 - -2-3 Figure 6: South African July soybean/sunflower seed spread Sagis monthly data 14 From the Sagis monthly data for the South African soybean market we see that on the supply side 91 114 tons of soybeans was delivered in May 218 bringing the cumulative total for the season to date at 1.35 million tons which is 91% of the CEC crop estimate. Imports have been minimal to date. On the demand side the South African soybeans processed for the local market was reported at 99 948 tons in May 218 which is up from the April estimate seen at 994 tons. The cumulative soybeans processed for the local market in the season to date is seen at 271 688 tons which is 21% higher year/year. Figure 7: Monthly soybean processed for local market ( tons) 12 4 2 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19 The South African soybean stocks at the end of May 218 were reported at 1.366 million tons compared to the 1.79 million tons seen the same time last year. The average monthly soybeans processed in the season to date is seen at 91 tons/month and based on this the stock at the end of May 218 should be enough for 15 months of consumption. Therefore in order to work away local stocks we will either have to boost the quantity processed or export some of our soybeans/soybean products. Looking at the South African sunflower seed market we see that on the supply side some 23 463 tons was delivered in the month of May 218 bringing the cumulative deliveries for the season to date at 349 675 tons. The deliveries by the end of May 218 represented 44% of the CEC crop estimate. On the demand side the South African sunflower seed processed for the local market in May 218 was reported at 436 tons which is up from the 53 84 tons seen in April 4
218. The cumulative sunflower seed processed for our market in the season to date is seen at 198 781 tons which is well above the 147 96 tons seen the same time last year. 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 Figure 8: Sunflower seed processed for local market ( tons) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19 The South African sunflower seed stocks at the end of May 218 was reported at 38 9 tons which is well below the 545 764 tons seen the same time last year. The average sunflower seed processed for our market in the season to date is seen at 66 tons/month and the stocks at the end of May 218 should be enough for 4.6 months of consumption. However the deliveries of sunflower seed have been slow in the season to date and deliveries have started to gain some momentum in June. FOCUS FOR THE WEEK US soybean contracts traded sharply lower in the past week with the favorable weather conditions in the US Midwest boosting yield prospects. Furthermore the trade tension between the US and China is increasing the uncertainty with regard to future trade. The next key data release for the US soybean market will be the USDA acreage and stocks report due on Friday. The market is looking for a larger 218 US soybean area planted compared to the March USDA estimate. The weather forecast expects some more rainfall in the Midwest the next few days with warmer temperatures forecasted for the 6-1 day period. South African oilseeds ended mixed in the past week with soybeans under some pressure as a result of the stronger rand seen recently and the lower US soybean prices. The producer deliveries of a massive South African soybean crop probably also weighed on prices. Key data for our market will be the CEC soybean and sunflower seed crop estimates due later today. Technical graphs Safex Jul-18 soybean prices CME Jul-18 soybean prices 5
Daily SOYN8 Cndl, SOYN8, Trade Price 218/6/26, 4 31., 4 32., 4 295., 4 38., N/A, N/A SMA, SOYN8, Trade Price(Last), 9 218/6/26, 4 354.67 SMA, SOYN8, Trade Price(Last), 4 218/6/26, 4 531.83 SMA, SOYN8, Trade Price(Last), 218/6/26, 4 1.5 217/1/2-218/7/9 (JHB) Price ZAR T 4 95 4 9 4 85 MACD, SOYN8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 218/6/26, -73.16, -66.61 Value ZAR T RSI, SOYN8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 218/6/26, 25.6 Value ZAR T 3 23 3 6 13 2 27 4 11 18 27 2 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 3 9 16 23 3 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 Oct 17 November 217 December 217 January 218 February 218 March 218 April 218 May 218 June 218 Jul 18 4 4 75 4 7 4 4 4 55 4 5 4 45 4 4 4 35 4 3 6
Daily SN8 Cndl, SN8, Trade Price 218/6/27, 868, 872 3 / 4, 866 1 / 2, 868, + 3 / 4, (+.9%) SMA, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 218/6/27, 119 3 / 4+ SMA, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 4 218/6/27, 979 5 / 8+ SMA, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 9 218/6/27, 886 1 / 4+ SMA, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 2 218/6/27, 113 1 / 8+ 217/1/3-218/7/12 (CHG) 85 84 1/8 RSI, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 218/6/27, 21.45 Value USc Bsh MACD, SN8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 218/6/27, -38 1 / 8+, -32 7 / 8+ Value USc Bsh 9 16 23 3 6 13 2 27 4 11 18 26 2 8 16 22 29 5 12 2 26 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 3 7 14 21 29 4 11 18 25 2 9 October 217 November 217 December 217 January 218 February 218 March 218 April 218 May 218 June 218 Jul 18 Price USc Bsh 1 15 14 13 12 11 99 9 97 9 95 94 93 92 91 9 89 8 87 8 7