How to Identify and Address The Most Profitable Demand? Ashley Wu Associate Director Nielsen
Strong Network is #1 Driver to Success Every company recognizes the importance of network, but often speed-to-market and lack of rigor leads to a not-scientific-enough approach to city and location selection, resulting in poor results. CEO, Leading Retailer
Rapidly Increasing (and Aging) Car Parc in China Car parc* is expected to grow to 150 million by 2015 60% vehicles over 4 years old Aftermarket is growing significantly faster than OEM car market Rapid expansion of aftermarket network is a must for exponential growth *Parc - The total number of cars on road
Tire Company Case Study Background: Focused on aftermarket needs of premium car brands Growth Opportunity: Expand to top 50 cities in next 3 years Three Key Questions: 1 2 3 Which top 50 cities by rank order? What is the capacity of each city? What locations within in each city?
Network Expansion Strategy Which market? City Potential Index How many per city and what size? City Capacity Assessment Where? Location Selection and Evaluation
Nielsen s Location Analytics Deployed Client Data (store characteristics, activity, sales) Consumer Profiles Cartography (Location of Interest) Competitive Landscape Demographics Car Parc* Income Proxy *Parc - The total number of cars on road Concentration of Auto Workshops
Highest Car Ownership Regions Personal Car Ownership (Cars per 100 Household) Beijing Highest with 30 Cars per 100 Household Beijing 29.55 Shandong 16.00 Zhejiang 23.72 Guangdong 23.31 Shanghai 14.04 Yunnan 14.88
Next Highest Car Ownership Regions Personal Car Ownership (Car Households (HH) per 100 HH) Hebei 10.13 Beijing 29.55 Tianjin 11.86 Xing Jiang 7.61 Sichuan 6.83 Yunnan 14.88 Inner Mongolia 9.51 Shandong 16.00 Shanxi 10.03 Guangdong 23.31 Zhejiang 23.72 Liaoning 7.23 Shanghai 14.04 Jiangsu 11.92 Guangxi 10.68 Hainan 10.72 Fujian 9.57
Personal Car Ownership - All Regions Car Households (HH) per 100 HH Beijing 29.55 Xing Jiang 7.61 Tibet 13.28 Gansu 2.53 Tsinghai 3.95 Ningxia 5.30 Sichuan 6.83 Yunnan 14.88 Hebei 10.13 Shan'xi 5.72 Inner Mongolia 9.51 Guangxi 10.68 Shanxi 10.03 Guangdong 23.31 Shandong 16.00 Zhejiang 23.72 Tianjin 11.86 Ji Lin 5.95 Hei Longjiang 3.23 Liaoning 7.23 Shanghai 14.04 Jiangsu 11.92 Jiang Xi 4.31 An Hui 2.76 Henan 5.03 Chongqing 4.90 Guizhou 4.85 Hunan 5.51 Hainan 10.72 Hubei 4.41 Fujian 9.57
Dealership Network for Premium Car Brands Dealerships spread across 200 cities Top Tier Car Brands Audi (244 dealership) BMW (291 dealerships) Mercedes Benz (140 dealerships) Karamay Urumqi Qiqihar Daqing Harbin Chifeng Shenyang Tonghua Panjin Fushun Jinzhou Anshan Hohhot Chengde Qinhuangdao Yingkou Beijing Baotou Fengrun Dalian Baoding Ordos Tangshan Yulin Datong Tianjin Cangzhou Weihai Yinchuan Taiyuan YangShijiazhuang Dongying Dezhou Qingdao Lvliang quanhandan Yan an Jinan Zibo Weifang Linfen Changzhi Xining Anyang Jining Rizhao JinchengXinxiang ZaozhuangLinyi Lanzhou Yuncheng Xuzhou Lianyungang Luoyang Zhengzhou Huai an Yancheng Pingding Taizhou Xi an Yangzhou Bengbu Nantong shan NanyangNanjing Shanghai Hefei Liyang Changshu Nanchong Yichang Taicang Mianyang Ma Anshan YixingSuzhou Jiaxing Deyang WuhuHuzhou Cixi Chengdu Ningbo Wuhan Hangzhou Zhuji Yiwu Leshan Linhai Shangrao Taizhou Chongqing Changsha Quzhou Yueqing Wenzhou Nanping Zunyi Xiangtan Nanchang Rui an Zhuzhou Ningde Hengyang Ganzhou Fuzhou Chenzhou Sanming Putian Qujing Guiyang Guilin Longyan Xiamen Quanzhou Zhangzhou Kunming GuangzhouJieyang Meizhou Liuzhou Yuxi Zhaoqing Huizhou Shantou Nanning Foshan Zhongshan Shenzen Zhuhai Zhanjiang Songyuan Changcun Jilin Jiamusi Mudanjiang Yanji Haikou
City Potential and Prioritization Index Rank City Potential Index 1 Shanghai 130 2 Beijing 93 3 Guangzhou 63 4 Shenzhen 47 5 Chengdu 43 6 Wuhan 41 7 Shenyang 40 8 Tianjin 36 9 Hangzhou 33 10 Nanjing 32 Rank City Potential Index 11 Chongqing 30 12 XiAn 26 13 Dalian 26 14 Dongguan 25 15 Changsha 24 16 Zhengzhou 24 17 Qingdao 22 18 Jinan 20 19 Changchun 19 20 Taiyuan 18 Rank City Potential Index 21 Suzhou 17 22 Harbin 17 23 Wenzhou 17 24 Wuxi 16 25 Kunming 15 26 Xiamen 15 27 Fuzhou 15 28 Changzhou 15 29 Shijiazhuang 14 30 Foshan 14 Rank City Potential Index 31 Urumqi 13 32 Nanning 13 33 Hefei 12 34 Ningbo 12 35 Zibo 10 36 Guiyang 9 37 Xuzhou 9 38 Nanchang 9 39 Shantou 8 40 Huhhot 8 Rank City Potential Index 41 Lanzhou 8 42 Tangshan 8 43 Zhuhai 8 44 Yangzhou 7 45 Yantai 7 46 Zhongshan 7 47 Jilin 7 48 Huizhou 7 49 Taizhou 7 50 Luoyang 7
Top 50 City for Tire Company s Expansion Huhhot Taiyuan Lanzhou Luoyang Tangshan Yantai Zibo Xuzhou Changzhou Yangzhou Hefei Guiyang Fuzhou Taizhou Shantou Foshan Zhongshan Dongguan Zhuhai Huizhou
Network Expansion Strategy Which market? City Potential Index How many per city and what size? City Capacity Assessment Where? Location Selection and Evaluation
City Capacity Assessment Factors: Purchasing power # of premium car parc Catchment area Assessment of revenue expectation # of areas with automotive, transport concentration using location of interest (LOI) data Conducted for cities where Tire Company is already present (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou)
Nielsen s Location Analytics Deployed Client Data (store characteristics, activity, sales) Consumer Profiles Cartography (Location of Interest) Competitive Landscape Demographics Car Parc* Income Proxy *Parc - The total number of cars on road Concentration of Auto Workshops
Suggested Workshops Per City for Tire Company Rank City Workshops per city 1 Shanghai 5* 2 Beijing 3* 3 Guangzhou 4* 4 Shenzhen 10 5 Chengdu 9 6 Wuhan 9 7 Shenyang 9 8 Tianjin 8 9 Hangzhou 7 10 Nanjing 7 Rank City Workshops per city 11 Chongqing 6 12 XiAn 6 13 Dalian 6 14 Dongguan 6 15 Changsha 5 16 Zhengzhou 5 17 Qingdao 5 18 Jinan 4 19 Changchun 4 20 Taiyuan 4 Rank City Workshops per city 21 Suzhou 4 22 Harbin 4 23 Wenzhou 4 24 Wuxi 4 25 Kunming 3 26 Xiamen 3 27 Fuzhou 3 28 Changzhou 3 29 Shijiazhuang 3 30 Foshan 3 *SH, BJ and GZ advised to open additional workshops Rank City Workshops per city 31 Urumqi 3 32 Nanning 3 33 Hefei 3 34 Ningbo 3 35 Zibo 2 36 Guiyang 2 37 Xuzhou 2 38 Nanchang 2 39 Shantou 2 40 Huhhot 2 Rank City Workshops per city 41 Lanzhou 2 42 Tangshan 2 43 Zhuhai 2 44 Yangzhou 2 45 Yantai 2 46 Zhongshan 2 47 Jilin 2 48 Huizhou 2 49 Taizhou 1 50 Luoyang 1
Network Expansion Strategy Which market? City Potential Index How many per city and what size? City Capacity Assessment Where? Location Selection and Evaluation
Site Assessment Approach 1 2 Sites selected / ranking applied Ranking based on: Location of interest Nearness to auto/transport hub and premium shopping/leisure areas Purchasing power of the neighborhood 3 4 Success score assigned to each store location Results used to: Quantify the site assessment criteria Standardize and speed up the site selection decision-making cycles
Site Assessment Green dots 80% chance of success Red dots 60% chance of success Blue dots 40% chance of success Purple dots 20% chance of success
Tire Company s Network Expansion Strategy Open 250 stores in first 3 years Penetration first, intensity second: Start with one store in the city, then add more stores in the same city 3 year network expansion plan: 1st Year add 100 stores; Top 30 cities 2nd Year add 50 stores; Top 50 cities 3rd Year add 100 stores; Top 50 cities