Colombia: A Renewed Coffee Growing Colombia: Una Caficultura Renovada Juan Esteban Orduz President Colombian Coffee Federation New York November 2012 Copyright FNC (2012)
The Perfect Storm 2008-2009 El Niño (Higher temperature change in currents and winds in the Pacific Ocean) Non typical dry weather in Colombia» Increased berry borer Low Fertilization Lower production as of 2009
High oil prices increased the cost of fertilizers - Less fertilization Urea Sales to Coffee Cooperatives During 2008 the urea sales fell 26%, if compared with 2007. Sales (Tons) 19,500 17,500 15,500 13,500 11,500 9,500 7,500 2007: 117.328 Tons 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 5,500 3,500 50,000 1,500 40,000 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 2008: 86.590 Tons COP / 50 kg bag Source: Agroinsumos del Café
Higher temperatures in 2009 increased coffee berry borer infestation 7,00% National Average % of Coffee Beans Affected by the Borer at the Purchasing Point 6,00% 7% of infestation 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar- 07 Apr- 07 May- 07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov- 07 Dec- 07 Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 May- 08 Jun- 08 Jul- 08 Aug- 08 Sep- 08 Oct- 08 Nov- 08 Dec- 08 Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 May- 09 Jun- 09 Jul- 09 Aug- 09 Sep- 09 Oct- 09 Nov- 09 Dec- 09 Jan- 10 Feb- 10 Mar- 10 Apr- 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul- 10
The Perfect Storm 2009 2010 2011 2012 (1st. Sem.) LA NIÑA (Lower temperature in the Pacific Ocean, affecting climate in Asia and America) Rain above normal levels Less than sufficient sunlight and high humidity» No hydric stress» Low and / or delayed flowering» Increase in coffee rust Older trees and non resistant varietals Less coffee production
Since 2008, coffee regions were affected by an increase in rain levels never seen before Observed Rainfall change from historic average (2008 2011) 150% Sur (El Tambo) Centro (Naranjal) Norte (Pueblo Bello) 100% 50% 0% - 50% - 100% I - 2008 II - 2008 III - 2008 IV 2008 I - 2009 II - 2009 III - 2009 IV 2009 I - 2010 II - 2010 III - 2010 IV 2010 I - 2011 II - 2011 III - 2011 IV- 2011 La Niña phenomenon Rain prolongation El Niño phenomenon La Niña phenomenon
Decreasing the amount of sun exposure hours of the coffee trees Observed solar light change from historic average (2008 2011) 20% Sur (El Tambo) Centro (Naranjal) Norte (Pueblo Bello) 10% 0% - 10% - 20% - 30% - 40% I - 2008 II - 2008 III - 2008 IV 2008 I - 2009 II - 2009 III - 2009 IV 2009 I - 2010 II - 2010 III - 2010 IV 2010 I - 2011 II - 2011 III - 2011 IV- 2011 La Niña phenomenon Rain prolongation El Niño phenomenon La Niña phenomenon
And causing falls in the average temperature Observed temperature change from historical average (2008 2011) 10% Sur (El Tambo) Centro (Naranjal) Norte (Pueblo Bello) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% - 8% I - 2008 II - 2008 III - 2008 IV 2008 I - 2009 II - 2009 III - 2009 IV 2009 I - 2010 II - 2010 III - 2010 IV 2010 I - 2011 II - 2011 III - 2011 IV- 2011 La Niña phenomenon Rain prolongation El Niño phenomenon La Niña phenomenon
Adverse Weather Conditions Affected the Coffee Production Coffee production vs. Weather conditions (Niño/Niña) (1998-2011) 14.000 Producción Promedio hasta 2008 (miles Sacos de café verde (millones) ) 13.000 12.000 11.000 10.000 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Niño Niña Neutro
Production and Exports 000 s 60kg bags 14,000 Production 13,000 12,000 11,000 exports 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11
In a nutshell 2009 to 2011 Colombian coffee production and exports decreased: Bad weather: El Niño and La Niña (2008 2012). Low fertilization: Mostly due to high prices of oil (2008). Rust and berry borer: The weather and the lower use of fertilizers caused higher levels of rust and berry borer. Old and non rust resistant trees: Low productivity due to old coffee trees.
Light at the End of the Tunnel RECONFIGURATION: Our goal is to reach higher productivities and production every year. Renovation: Renovation: 117.000 hectares (290.000 acres) renovated in 2011. The process will continue at a rate of approximately 120,000 hectares (297,000 acres) renovated with resistant varietals per year. High productivity and rust resistant varietals: Castillo varietal and its regional strands in all coffee departments. Climatically Intelligent Coffee Agriculture: This is our top challenge this year. Since not all its repercussions manifest in the same form in the different coffee regions, multilevel solutions are the answer - CENICAFE
Light at the End of the Tunnel Circumstances have improved and measures have been taken: Better weather: End of La Niña phenomenon / mid 2012. Good flowering: Less rain at the beginning of 2012 has resulted in a better main crop. More fertilizers: Lower prices and FNC incentives with governmental support. Renovated areas start producing: The results from the first stages of the renovation start to increase productivity. Expansion of total cultivated areas: Incentives for expansion of the total cultivated areas. Now Colombia has 917,000 (2.26 million acres) cultivated hectares compared to 850,000 hectares (2.1 million acres) a couple of years ago.
120.000 Source: FNC - Inteligencia Competitiva Sales of Fertilizers January - July [Tons] May 2012: Inicio Fase II Ola Invernal 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 85.853 78.748 72.145 83.732 94.496 95.153 96.737 20.000-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Better Weather Conditions (Hydric Stress) and flowering for Mitaca
In 2012, we will continue fighting against rust through the execution of the second phase of the Ola Invernal program EMERGENCY PLAN EXECUTION FOR PRODUCTION RECOVERY. II STAGE (2012) STAGE I (2011) 161 K hectares (398 K acres) 180 K coffee growers STAGE II (Until Sep 10 of 2012) US$ 31 million 90 K hectares (222 K acres) 105 K coffee growers US$ 11 million complemento los recursos aportados por Colombia Humanitaria, los As Como a complement of thearesources given by Colombia Humanitaria, coffee growers cafeteros han la compra de fertilizante. haveinvertido invested$24.454 $20.237millones millions en buying fertilizers. November 2012 Copyright FNC (2012)
As a result of these programs, the rust infection percentage has declined sharply. 40 Rust infection. National average( July 2012) 35 30 Porcentaje 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mayo Julio Noviembre Febrero Mayo Julio Noviembre Febrero Mayo Julio 2010 2011 2012 National mean: 7,7%
Thanks to the renovation program, the area planted with young technified coffee in resistant varieties has doubled in the last three years. Productive structure 2008 Traditional Tecnificado Envejecido 17% 25% Resistant TJ Technified Resistente 22% 21% Productive structure 2012 (Aug) Tecnificado Envejecido 20% Traditional 7% TJ Resistente 43% Tradicional 7% Tradicional 14% Non resistant Technified 61% TJ Susceptible 40% TJ Susceptible 30% Non resistant Technified 43% Resistant Technified 50% The area planted in young technified and resistant coffee is 418.000 hectares (1 million acres).
The sun is shining again Renovation Better weather conditions Higher production Healthy coffee trees More fertiliztion
12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 535 1.106 1.682 2.262 2.951 3.665 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Competitive Inteligence - FNC Colombian Coffee Production [Thousand 60Kg Bags] 2012 2011 2010 2009 4.333 4.898 5.417 8.923 7.812 7.809
Positive trend in production and exports 10,000 9,500 9,000 9,582 Production 8,500 8,532 8,000 7,593 7,500 Exports 7,040 7,000 6,500 7,016 7,256 6,000 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Despite the production crisis, FNC has developed multiple strategies to add value to Colombian Coffee
From the Farm to the Cup CENICAFE - The most modern Research Center in coffee producing countries Extension Service Productivity, social fabric and traceability Quality Control Labs, directions, inspection at port Value Added Specialty Coffees Cup profile, origin, certified Freeze-dried coffee (high quality soluble coffee) Juan Valdez Café (Cafés in the U.S., Colombia, Ecuador, Chile and Spain) Coffee Extract
Manuel Mejia Foundation The Manuel Mejía Foundation is a private entity created by the coffee guild back in 1960. It is an asset of the coffee growers with the mission of teaching the coffee grower, its family and the rural community to contribute to their well being, competitiveness and sustainability.
Technical Support: Direct Contact with the Communities in the Coffee Region The Extension Service (more than 1,400 agronomists and technicians) helps the rural population to: Improve the agricultural methods and techniques, hence ensuring quality Raise productivity and earnings, and Improve the educational and social standards of the rural life with the assistance of educational methods.
SICA INFORMATION CYCLE Coffee farm Daily Coffee grower Updated Information Farms Weekly Regionals Visits Education Headquarters Crops Lots Committees Monthly 27
Technology and Education From the Farm to the Tablet 2011-2012 Between 4 to 5 thousand coffee growers will have tablets for virtual information. Last minute information about coffee prices, weather and real time data without even leaving the farm.
Currently, 20% of Colombian coffee growers produce coffee under differentiated production programs Number of coffee growers in certification or verification programs (2008 2012) 140.000 120.000 100.000 Certificados 103.275 Verificados 109.77 129.627 80.000 60.000 68.624 66.912 40.000 20.000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 jun- 12
This has led to a change in the structure of the coffee exports: At the beginning of 2000 only 9% of coffee exports was sold with aggregated value, in 2012 aggregated value exports account for 36% Structure of coffee exports 2000 July 2012 Colombia s structure FoNC s structure 36% 70%
1. 200. 000 1. 000. 000 800. 000 600. 000 400. 000 200. 000-100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% FNC: Specialty Coffee Exports Preparation Sustainable Origin Preparation Sustainable Origin 209.385 542.923 676.558 616.018 713.668 771.411 1.068.631 991.065 750.444 966.459 598.109 10% 11% 11% 9% 19% 18% 17% 15% 12% 11% 28% 1% 1% 7% 27% 2% 37% 47% 63% 51% 60% 65% 40% 30% 20% 10% 70% 80% 80% 76% 63% 52% 43% 27% 34% 29% 24% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source : Inteligencia Comptetitiva - FNC 2012 until July
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