UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE Department of Agronomy and Land Management Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy Simone Orlandini, Valentina Di Stefano, Annalena Puglisi simone.orlandini@unifi.it Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agro Meteorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture. Oscarsborg,, Norway COST ACTION 734 ET - Climate Risks in Vulnerable Areas: Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies (WMO)
Grapevine: high quality of production sensible to environmental change longer growing season Increase temperature phenological phases anticipated risk of decrease of productions Napa Valley (California): flowering anticipated of more then 20 days (1951-1997 ). Increasing of frozen Risk reduction of bud productivity (Nemani et al., 2001) Bordeaux: anticipated and shorter phenological phases, longer growing season (Jones and Davis, 2000) Veneto (Italia): anticipated Merlot flowering (Chiaudani et al., 2007) Oregon: increase elevation limit for vegetation of grapevine (from 180 to 300 m asl) (Sergo, 2007) Australia: quality changed in the last 50 years (Powley, 2007)
Olive is a bio-indicator for the Mediterranean climate high temperature bloom anticipated (data get from pollen bulletin) Max [pollen] anticipation= 8.5 days/1 C (Chuine et al., 1998) Olive cultivated up to England (McCarthy, 2006; Coldiretti, 2007)
Aims 1 Homogenization of the historical series of temperature (data of Tuscany region, Italy) Result are homogeneous historical series 2 Analysis of the trend of last 50 years 3 Analysis of the potential effects of change and variability on the grapevine and olive responses
Material and methods IBIMET CNR data base 1955-2002 38 agrometeorological stations analysed on the basis of > Number of years < % missing value Regional area covering 22 termometric stations Daily Tmax e Tmin
Name Lat UTM_X Long UTM_Y Elevation (m.s.l.m.) Station characteristics Arezzo 730805 4815384 249 Boscolungo 633977 4888891 1340 Camaldoli 727025 4853030 1110 Castel del Piano 706920 4752060 596 Castelnuovo Garf. 613275 4885305 280 Elba Calamita 614306 4731893 380 Firenzuola 689640 4888022 454 Grosseto 669415 4735216 5 Livorno 606140 4822595 9 Lucca 620990 4855580 25 Massa 591800 4875450 38 Massa Marittima 653850 4768500 362 Montepulciano 726520 4774950 575 Orbetello 681025 4699970 1 Peretola 676985 4852101 38 Pisa 613017 4838671 3 Pistoia 653080 4867535 88 Pontremoli 570117 4913436 247 San Miniato 647740 4838630 132 Siena 687630 4799185 346 Vallombrosa 706000 4845450 972 Volterra 649965 4808235 465
Homogenization of the historical series original data Test of data quality Craddock test Tmax >= 42 C Tmin < - 15 C >= 25 C Tmin o Tmax = for 5 or + days Tmin e Tmax = for 3 or + days Tmin > Tmax Reference stations: not only one but 10 stations Homogenization Metadata Homogenization made by trigonometric fitting, reference period true up in the not homogeneity year Auer et al., 2005 Maugeri et al., 2004 (UNIMI) Brunetti et al., 2006 (CNR-ISAC)
Days with minimum temperature < 7 C (olive) Agroclimatic indices Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 10 C) Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 0 C) Degree day accumulation Mean of the maximum temperature Huglin index (grape) Mean of the minimum temperature Date of Bud-break (grape) Mean of the range of temperature Date of Flowering (grape) Frequency of frosts Date of growth (grape) Date of the last frost event Minimum temperature of the last frost event Date of the first autumnal frost Minimum temperature of the first autumnal frost September October mean temperature (olive) Chilling requirement (olive)
The historical series analysis Linear regression slope (annual variation rate) significativity p { 0.05 0.01 0.001 moving mean (5 year) Climate variability analysis standard deviations (5 years)
RESULTS
before Craddock Test (Firenzuola, Tmax) after
1955-2002 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the Tmin (Grosseto station). Annual trend
1980-2002 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the minimum temperature (Grosseto station). Annual trend.
AGROCLIMATIC INDICES
Duration of vegetative season threshold 0 C threshold 10 C 300 Peretola - DSV 0 C y = 0.2187x + 166.52 R 2 = 0.0081 250 Montepulciano - DSV 10 C y = 0.7903x + 153.2 R 2 = 0.094 250 200 200 150 100 50 150 100 50 0 0 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 (Peretola station) (p<0.05) (Montepulciano station) (p<0.05)
Maximum and minimum temperature Increase of temperature Minimum temperature trend period July- August- September (Massa station) (p<0.001). Maximum temperature trend period July- August- September (Livorno station) (p<0.01)
Maximum and minimum temperature ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1955-2002 April July August September Tmin ~ + ++ ~ Tmax ~ ~ /+ ++ ~
Grapevine phenology The sky-blue data are the ones with longer phenological phases. The red data are the stations in which the heat-need is not reach.
Frost and phenology Giorni giuliani 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 frost risks Montepulciano Tempo (anni) 120 Lucca Increase of frost risks Giorni giuliani 100 80 60 40 20 0 Tempo (anni)
Flowering phase Trend of anticipation: 8 days during the study period Arezzo station (p<0.01).
Ripening period 21 days during the study period -21 giorni -21 Day! Grosseto (p<0.001).
Ripening period
Huglin index Values from 1884.4 to 2089.9 (+11%) quality IH High quality wine 1500-2000 Dessert wine 2000-2800 30 09 ( tmed 10) + ( t IH = max 10) K 01 04 2
Huglin Index
Degree day accumulation Values from 1499.7-1675.0 C Elba Calamita station(p<0.001)
Degree day accumulation interannual variability Moving mean and standard deviations of the STA index (Montepulciano station). The mean (1955-1959) is about 1959 C. The δ 2 shows a significant trend (p<0.01).
Degree day accumulation
Chilling requirement (hours with T<7.2 C) Reduction: 1514 hours 1113 hours Ore 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Vernalizzazione - Massa M.ma 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 Tempo (anni) Massa Marittima station. (p<0.001). y = -8,5339x + 1522,7 R 2 = 0,2091 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
September October mean temperature 22.0 y = 0,0229x - 28,075 R 2 = 0,0923 p<0,05 20.0 Temperatura ( C) 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Tempo (anni)
Conclusions Better quality of the data thank to the homogenization Increase of Tmin, Tmax, degree day accumulation Tendency of the anticipation for the phenological phases > Risks (late frost) Fast growth rate < time for ripening Lengthening of growing season increase of Huglin index increase inter annual variability Affecting productions and quality Shorten Chilling period problems for the optimal threshold for the olive
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