Organic Tree Fruit: Growing, Growing, Gone? David Granatstein Elizabeth Kirby Washington State University Wenatchee, WA
TOPICS Fruit consumption trends Fruit production trends Economics
Consumer Demand Growth of US Organic Food Sales Organic Food Sales (Bil $) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 2008-3.5% of all food sales 1% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 4% projected Fruits & vegetables = 37% of sales Source: OTA, Nutrition Business Journal
Market Share of Organic Food and Fruit, 2007 Organic share of food market (%) All food Fruit Austria 5.4 7.1 Germany 2.7 5.6 Switzerland 4.6 5.4 Source: FiBL Survey based on data from Bio Austria, AC Nielsen/ZMP/BOELW and Bio Suisse. Leading organic fruit: apple, orange, banana, mango
# 1 Consumers Willing to Pay 30% More for Organic Fresh fruit Fresh vegetables Meat/poultry Baby food Milk Eggs Soymilk Breads Coffee Cold cereal Juice Other dairy Canned fruit/veg Yogurt Fresh prepared Frozen foods 27 30 32 32 34 38 37 37 40 41 46 49 54 53 55 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Hartman, 2008
U.S. Consumption of Fresh Fruit kg/person/yr 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Tropical Temperate Total 1975 1985 1995 2005 (USDA-ERS, 2008)
Top 10 Fresh Fruits Consumed in the U.S. % of total US fresh fruit consumption Rank Fruit 2005 1995 1985 1 Banana 20.7 23.0 22.3 2 Melon 19.3 20.1 20.8 3 Apple 14.9 15.4 15.8 4 Orange 9.1 9.7 11.2 5 Grape 6.5 5.8 6.0 6 Strawberry 4.4 3.2 2.6 7 Pineapple 3.8 1.5 1.3 8 Peach/nectarine 3.8 4.3 4.9 9 Avocado 2.6 1.3 1.4 10 Pear 2.3 2.7 2.5 Source: USDA ERS, 2008.
Tree Fruit and Nut Production
Global Organic Fruit Area by Specific Crop, 2007 Grapes Fruit/nuts/berries NS Pome Fruit Stone Fruit Fruit NS Other Berry Strawberry Fruit, other 2.8 2.7 11.4 45.3 37.9 33.8 33.6 121.8 28% of ha are NS 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Hectares (X1000) (C+T)
Organic Tree Fruit and Nuts Western U.S. 2008 Apple Pear Sweet Cherry Walnut Almond US 20,009 2,145 2,061 4,321 4,937 WA 13,055 1,319 1,497 7 -- CA 3,192 212 380 4,279 4,934 OR 136 344 276 -- -- AZ 1,023 -- 0 0 -- CO 426 -- 27 0 0 MT 20 -- 34 -- 0 NM 66 4 13 0 -- NV 55 0 0 0 0 UT 48 -- -- 0 0 Data: USDA-ERS, USDA NASS; 2008
25,000 20,000 15,000 Estimated U.S. Organic Apple Trend Acres Organic = 4.6% of US apple acres West = >95% of area US Total* 10,000 West* Washington State 5,000 0 East/Midwest* CA USA West WA East/Midwest Based on combined data from WSDA, ERS, CDFA AZ Apple Growers Assoc., QAI and OTCO; * same data for 2008 and 2009, except WA and CA
Acres 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 $ drop Alar Organic Apple Area Washington State MD $ drop Wal-Mart $ drop Certified Transitional 15,735ac = 10% of WA apple bearing acreage (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 153,000 acres) Combined certifiers data
California Organic Tree Fruit Acres California Dept of Food and Agriculture 6,000 5,000 4,000 Acres 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Apple Stone Fruit Pear (Euro & Asian) Organic grapes 23,000 ac Based on raw CDFA data
California Organic Stone Fruit Acres California Dept of Food and Agriculture 3,000 2,500 2,000 Acres 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Prune/Plum Peach Nectarine Apricot Cherry Based on raw CDFA data
Organic Pear Acreage Washington State 2,500 2,000 Acres 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Certified Transition 2009 = 8% of total WA pear acreage (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 24,000 acres) Combined certifiers data; 2009 WSDA only
Organic Cherry Acreage Washington State 2,500 Acres 2,000 1,500 1,000 U.S. organic tart cherries 264 ac GF-120 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Certified Transition 2009 = 7% of total WA cherry area (based on 2008 WA-NASS estimate of 34,300 acres) Combined certifiers data
Organic Tree Nuts % of all CA acres acres Walnut 4279 1.8 Almond 4934 0.6 CA has 99% of organic walnut and almond acres in US Hazelnut/filbert (US) 154 ac OR/WA had 9 of 32 farms
Economics $ $ $
$40 Apple Price Trends Gala $/box FOB $30 $20 $10 Organic Conv } price premium $0 $40 Fuji $/box FOB $30 $20 $10 organic conventional $0 organic conventional WAGCHA data; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes, domestic & export
Pear Price Trends $50 Bartlett $ /box FOB $40 $30 $20 $10 Org Conv $0 $50 D Anjou $/box FOB $40 $30 $20 $10 organic conventional $0 organic conventional WAGCHA data; FOB avg, all storage, grades, sizes, dom & exp
Jan. 2010 Grower Survey How would you compare the cost of production for organic tree fruit to similar conventional production? 55% 1. 20% or more lower in organic 2. 10% lower in organic 3. Similar 4. 10% higher in organic 5. 20% or more higher in organic 5% 15% 7% 18% 1. 20% or more... 2. 10% lower i... 3. Similar 4. 10% higher... 5. 20% or more...
Jan. 2010 Grower Survey Was organic fruit production profitable for you for the 2008 crop? 1. Yes 2. No 43% 57% Yes No
Year-to-Date WA Organic Apple Sales 1000 800 1000 boxes 600 400 200 0 Gala Fuji Red Golden HoneyCrisp Braeburn Pink Lady 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 WSDA compliance data
Question 1a. What is the most serious problem you face in 29% organic tree fruit production? 1. New varieties / rootstock 2. Insect management 3. Disease control 4. Tree nutrition 5. Weed control 6. Crop load management 7. Fruit quality 8. Economics 9. Post harvest issues 3% 1. New varieties / rootstock 2. Insect management 3. Disease control 4. Tree nutrition 23% 12% 10% 8% 8% 5% 1% 5. Weed control 6. Crop load management 7. Fruit quality 8. Economics 9. Post harvest issues
Question 13a. Choose your highest priority for organic tree fruit research. 1. Crop load management 2. Post harvest issues 3. Disease control 4. Economics 5. Weed control 6. New varieties / rootstock 7. Organic systems site 8. Tree nutrition 9. Insect management 10. Fruit quality 1. Crop load m... 5% 2. Post harves... 1% 3. Disease con... 7% 6% 4. Economics 5. Weed contro... 16% 6. New varieti... 1% 7. Organic sys... 8% 8. Tree nutrit... 8% 9. Insect mana... 49% 10. Fruit qual... 1%
Rank the 3 most difficult insect pests to control in organic apple production (with the worst first). 32% 1. Rosy apple aphid 2. Stink bug 3. Mites 4. Woolly apple aphid 5. Codling moth 6. Thrips 7. Lygus bug 8. Leaf roller 9. San Jose Scale 10. Green aphid 22% 13% 9% 6% Rosy apple aph... Stink bug Mites Woolly apple a... Codling moth 6% 5% 4% 2% 1% Thrips Lygus bug Leaf roller San Jose Scale Green aphid
Future Outlook Organic trees fruits and nuts: - market will still grow - there is a ceiling - price premiums likely to decline Research to help lower costs, risks; increase yield and quality - insect pests a priority Organic system constraints offer unique research opportunities - e.g. GF-120 for cherry fruit fly Western states a premier region for organic fruits, nuts; need support to remain competitive, to deal with new pests