FooDS FOOD DEMAND SURVEY Volume 5, Issue 5 : September 19, 2017 About the Survey FooDS tracks consumer preferences and sentiments on the safety, quality, and price of food at home and away from home with particular focus on meat demand. FooDS is a monthly on-line survey with a sample size of at least 1,000 individuals, weighted to match the US population in terms of age, gender, education and region of residence. See the online technical document for more details. MEAT DEMAND Willingness-to- Pay Last Year: September 2016 Last Month: August 2017 Steak Chicken Breast Hamburger Pork Chop Deli Ham Chicken Wing Beans & Rice Pasta $7.91 $5.43 $4.51 $3.90 $2.47 $2.38 $2.49 $2.94 $6.46 $4.95 $4.03 $3.50 $1.83 $1.93 $1.71 $2.78 September 2017 $6.66 $5.05 $4.40 $3.32 $2.17 $1.89 $1.72 $2.65 % change 3.10% 2.02% 9.18% -5.14% 18.58% -2.07% 0.58% -4.68% (Aug. - Sept.) Compared to one month ago, willingness-to-pay (WTP) increased for steak, chicken breast, hamburger, and deli ham. WTP decreased for pork chops and chicken wings. WTP for deli ham experienced the largest percent increase compared to one month ago. WTP for all products is lower than one year ago. FOOD EXPENDITURES Current weekly Current weekly Anticipated change in at Anticipated change away from at home away from home home in next 2 weeks home in next 2 weeks September 2016 $98.26 $60.91-0.28% -1.08% August 2017 $94.30 $50.36-0.37% -1.21% September 2017 $92.56 $50.15-0.40% -1.34% % change (Aug. - Sept.) -1.85% -0.42% -------- -------- Expenditures on food eaten at home decreased 1.85% from August to September and expenditures on food purchased away from home decreased 0.42%. Consumers expect prices to increase for all meat products compared to one month ago. Consumers plan to buy more beef, chicken, and pork compared to last month. Plans to eat out decreased slightly compared to last month.
Consumer Expectations FooDS Page 2 AWARENESS & CONCERN TRACKING GMOs, E. coli, and Salmonella were the most visible issues in the news over the past two weeks. The largest percent increase in awareness form August to September was for mad cow disease followed by beta-agonists. The largest percent decrease in awareness from August to September was for E. coli followed by antibiotics. E. coli, Salmonella, and farm animal welfare were ranked as the top three food safety concerns in September. The largest percent increase in concern from August to September was for mad cow disease followed by swine flu. The largest percent decrease in concern from August to September was for GMO followed by hormones. Awareness of Food Issues
Concern for Food Issues FooDS Page 3 GENERAL FOOD VALUES Taste, safety, and price remained consumers most important values when purchasing food this month. Consumers food values remained similar to those in past months. Similar to last month, consumers reported that their main challenge was finding affordable foods that fit within their budget. Finding time to cook at home was the challenge experiencing the largest percentage increase, while avoiding pesticides, added hormones and antibiotics experienced the largest percent decrease. In September, 6% of participants reported having food poisoning, a 5.3% increase from last month. About 5% of respondents reported being vegetarian or vegan. Consumer Challenges Consumer Values
AD HOC QUESTIONS FooDS Page 4 Several ad hoc questions were added this month s survey relating to Celiac disease, individual s sensitivity towards gluten, and their political affiliations. Gluten sensitivity, where individuals who do not have Celiac disease but still experience poor health symptoms after consuming gluten, has been a major food topic in the last decade. There is still disagreement on whether gluten-sensitivity is real in the same way that Celiac disease and other established health conditions are universally accepted as diagnosable conditions. Nevertheless, food manufacturers like to stamp a gluten-free label on their foods whenever they can. Some observers note that sensitivity to gluten seems to be strangely correlated with political affiliation. Skeptical of its biological basis, some have referred to it as a trendy disease for rich white people, and Ted Cruz once likened gluten-sensitivity to liberal political correctness. This week s ad hoc questions were devoted to assessing the correlation between gluten-sensitivity and political affiliation. First, it was necessary to eliminate those with Celiac disease. Participants were asked: Have you been diagnosed by a medical professional as having Celiac disease? Only 3.3% of participants stated they had been diagnosed with Celiac disease. These individuals were excluded from all subsequent analysis. Participants without Celiac disease were asked four questions regarding gluten sensitivity, shown below. Across all questions, around 10% - 20% of individuals report some form of gluten sensitivity, meaning they believe its consumption leads to poor health symptoms. Gluten Sensitivity Amongst Those Without Celiac Disease
AD HOC QUESTIONS FooDS Page 5 Before asking whether there is a correlation between one s political affiliation and whether they are glutensensitive, we wanted to study whether becoming gluten-sensitive might cause changes in political affiliation. It could be the case that becoming gluten-sensitive causes one to become more critical of the conventional food system, and such critics are typically found on the political-left. Those who stated somewhat agree, agree, or strongly agree to one or more of the above statements (indicating they believe themselves to be gluten-sensitive), were asked: In at least one of the questions above you indicated an aversion to gluten. Since the time you identified a gluten sensitivity, how has your political affiliation changed? Approximately two thirds of participants stated there has been no change in their political affiliation. 18.5% of participants stated they have become more liberal since identifying a gluten sensitivity. About 15% of participants stated they have become more conservative. The margin-of-error in surveys of this size tend to be around 3 percentage points, so there is little evidence that becoming gluten-sensitive makes one lean to the political-left. Responses to: Since the time you identified a gluten sensitivity, has your political affiliation changed?
AD HOC QUESTIONS FooDS Page 6 Participants were then asked: When it comes to politics, do you think of your parents (or guardians) as liberal or conservative? The idea is that political affiliation is often passed down from parents to their children, partly through genetics and partly through environment. About 14% of participants stated I don t know, and are not included in the graph below. Approximately 30% of gluten-sensitive who answered the question described their parents political affiliation as moderate or middle of the road. Interestingly, more respondents had liberal parents than conservative parents, suggesting that through genes and the environment one is raised, children of liberal parents are more likely to report a gluten-sensitivity than children of conservative parents. Responses to: When it comes to politics, do you think of your parents (or guardians) as liberal or conservative? by gluten-sensitive respondents
AD HOC QUESTIONS FooDS Page 7 Next, we wanted to analyze the political affiliations of those who reported gluten-sensitivity, but we wanted to describe politics first in terms of social issues. Participants were asked: When it comes to social issues (such as immigration, gay marriage, abortion, and religion in schools), do you usually think of yourself as liberal or conservative? About 26% of gluten-sensitive respondents identified themselves as moderate or middle of the road. About 45% of participants identified themselves as either extremely liberal or slightly liberal, and 30% of participants identified themselves as either slightly conservative or extremely conservative. (Only 5% of participants stated I don t know and are not included in the graph below.) Given a three percentage point margin-of-error, those who avoid gluten for health reasons are much more liberal than conservative when it comes to social issues. This could be because those with genetics that predispose them to liberal politics also make them more likely to become gluten-sensitive, but causality could work the other way also. Being liberal may make one more aware that gluten can cause health problems, or may make the individual claim to be gluten-sensitive for reasons other than health, like social identity. Responses to: When it comes to social issues (like immigration, gay marriage, abortion, and religion in schools), do you usually think of yourself as liberal or conservative? by gluten-sensitive respondents
FooDS Page 8 Then, participants were asked: When it comes to economic issues (such as government spending, taxes, poverty, and labor unions), do you usually think of yourself as liberal or conservative? The results are virtually identical to the previous question regarding social issues. For a variety of possible reasons, those associating gluten with poor health are much more likely to be liberal in regard to economic issues. These results suggest that when Ted Cruz associated gluten-free foods with liberals, and vowed not to provide gluten-free meals for the military, he had done his political homework and was appealing to a largely conservative base. That said, roughly one-third of the gluten-sensitive who report a political identity do consider them a conservative, so the gluten issue is not one strictly of politics. Responses to: When it comes to economic issues (like government spending, taxes, poverty, and labor unions), do you usually think of yourself as liberal or conservative? by gluten-sensitive respondents
FooDS Page 9 Another way of measuring political affiliation is by asking who they voted for (or would have voted for) in the 2016 presidential election. Among those who voted, there are little differences in responses to the statement I believe I am sensitive to gluten in foods among Clinton and Trump supporters. A total of 12.5% of Clinton supporters agreed, compared to Trump s 13.20% The difference was more pronounced among those who did not vote. Non-voters who said they would have supported Trump over Clinton were more likely to report a gluten-sensitivity. Non-voting Clinton supporters agreed with the statement 15.21% of the time, compared to Trump s 24.72%. This demonstrates that associating an aversion to gluten as being a liberal cause is not entirely accurate. The 2016 presidential election has made what we consider a liberal or conservative more nuanced. The results below suggest that non-voting fans of the 2016 Republican presidential candidate are actually more likely to be gluten-sensitive than the non-voting fans of the Democratic candidate. Responses to: I believe I am sensitive to gluten in foods
FooDS Page 10 Similar results were found for the statement I often feel in poor health after eating foods containing gluten. Of those who voted, 13.67% of Clinton supporters agreed, compared to 17.78% of Trump supporters. However, among those who did not vote, 22% of Clinton supporters agreed compared to 30.12% of Trump supporters. In both cases, the Trump supporters were more likely to be gluten-sensitive than Clinton supporters, but this difference was amplified among non-voters. Responses to: I often feel in poor health after eating foods containing gluten
FooDS Page 11 Less difference is found among Clinton and Trump supporters to the statement my health improves when I avoid foods containing gluten. Given a three percentage point margin of error, roughly the same percentage of Clinton and Trump supporters agreed with the statement, regardless of whether they actually voted. Responses to: My health improves when I avoid foods containing gluten
FooDS Page 12 For the statement part of maintaining good health is avoiding foods containing gluten, Clinton and Trump supporters expressed similar sentiments. Among voters, 24.01% of Clinton supporters agreed, compared to 23.19% of Trump supporters. For non-voters, although the bars for somewhat agree, agree, and strongly agree differ considerably, the total number who indicated at least one of those levels of agreement were 29.49% for Clinton and 32.62% for Trump. Whether Clinton or Trump supporters are more likely to be gluten-sensitive then depends on how the question is asked, and in cases where there is a difference, Trump supporters are more gluten-sensitive. Responses to: Part of maintaining good health is avoiding foods containing gluten