Australian wine sales update Mark Rowley, Senior Analyst Wine Sector Intelligence June 2015
Australian supply and demand Murray Valley s key varieties Summary
Billion litres Global wine supply has tightened but 32 30 28 Global wine supply and demand over time Vineyard area in the EU has fallen by 270,000ha since 2008 due to financial incentives OIV reported global supply decreased in 2014 26 24 22 20 Supply Demand Global demand is growing after a flat period post-gfc 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f Source: OIV
Australian supply and demand balanced but Australian wine supply v demand over time Source: ABS, AGWA
Declining red sales have increased the stocks to sales ratio Red wine supply and demand figures
White wine stock to sales ratio is declining White wine supply and demand figures
Australian supply and demand Murray Valley s key varieties Summary
Murray Valley is a key player particularly with whites Share of production Share of Australian production Chardonnay 28% 27% Shiraz 14% 13% Cabernet Sauvignon 10% 16% Merlot 9% 26% Sauvignon Blanc 8% 32% Muscat Gordo Blanco 8% 47% Pinot Gris 6% 42% Colombard 5% 34% Semillon 4% 15% Other 9% 13%
Where are your grapes going?
Chardonnay Share of Sales Australia 31% United Kingdom 24% United States Of America 18% ROW 17% Germany, Federal Republic 5% Canada 3% China, Pr 1% New Zealand 1% Off-trade sales of Chardonnay in Australia
Shiraz Share of Sales Australia 33% United Kingdom 24% ROW 17% United States Of America 10% China, Pr 6% Canada 6% Germany, Federal Republic 3% New Zealand 2% Off-trade sales of Shiraz in Australia
Cabernet Sauvignon Share of Sales Australia 40% United Kingdom 18% ROW 16% United States Of America 13% China, Pr 6% Canada 4% Germany, Federal Republic 2% New Zealand 2% Off-trade sales of Cabernet Sauvignon in Australia
Merlot Share of Sales Australia 36% United Kingdom 19% United States Of America 18% ROW 14% China, Pr 6% New Zealand 3% Canada 3% Germany, Federal Republic 2% Off-trade sales of Merlot in Australia
Sauvignon Blanc Share of Sales Australia 65% United Kingdom 18% ROW 7% United States Of America 5% New Zealand 3% Canada 1% China, Pr 0% Germany, Federal Republic 0% Off-trade sales of Sauvignon Blanc in Australia
New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc in Australia
Moscato (MGB) Share of Sales Australia 79% United States Of America 10% ROW 5% Canada 2% United Kingdom 2% New Zealand 2% China, Pr 1% Germany, Federal Republic 0% Off-trade sales of Moscato in Australia
Pinot Gris Share of Sales United States Of America 36% United Kingdom 22% Canada 21% ROW 11% Australia 7% New Zealand 2% Germany, Federal Republic 1% China, Pr 0% Exports of Pinot Gris/Grigio
White wine in Australia (Colombard, MGB & Semillon) Total sales of white wine in Australia
White wine in Australia (Colombard, MGB & Semillon) Imports of white wine into Australia
Australian supply and demand Murray Valley s key varieties Summary
Key takeaways Global supply and economic conditions have a huge consequence on Australian producers and the world remains in oversupply. Australia s 2015 vintage appears to be lower than first thought. However, the potential for a large crop remains. Sales results in the key markets will dictate prices for growers (along with supply). Many variables are heading in a positive direction but scarcity is still the key to increasing pricing for grapes.