Globalisation + Financialisation = Concentration? RECENT TRENDS ON MERGERS, ACQUISITIONS AND FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS IN THE WINE SECTOR Enometrics, XIV VDQS, May 4-5, 7 A. Coelho JP Couderc JL Rastoin UMR MOISA SupAgro Montpellier WINE AND SPIRITS INDUSTRY Concentration and external growth Part 1: Deals evolution from 1998 to 5 Part : Motivations and winning strategies Conclusion Trier, Germany 1 Concentration and external growth theories The wine sector in 5 : M&A are a fast route for wine companies to expand their product lines in both domestic and international markets; M&A offer manufacturers a larger market share together with economies of scale and increasing bargaining power in obtaining shelf space in retailing M&A can be considered as finance strategies that help managers signalling their intentions M&A tend to reduce asymmetric information and agency costs, but may engender transaction costs Managerial entrenchment rooted in opportunism and managerial discretional behaviour (Shleifer & Vishny, 1989) 3 million hl and 53 billion on the world market Exchanges = 3% and 15 billions ( still leading with 5.5 billions ) the first 3 companies = 7% in value ( % in the spirits sector) the first companies = 7% Concentration in the spirits sector and atomisation in the wine sector? Financialization: an alternative to M&A? (value creation) 3 4 World Wine Consumption has increased from.4 to 3 billion 9L cases. Whilst the number of financial deals increased from 7 to 5 per year. Evolution from 1998 to 5 Evolution from 1998 to 5 3,5 3 3,5 3 Billion 9L cases 3,5 1,5 1,5 World Consumption World Trade 5 15 1 5 Total world wine export has expanded slowly from.67 billion to.73 billion 9L cases Billion 9L cases 3,5 1,5 1,5 World Consumption World Trade 5 15 1 5 The industry registered 1,84 restructuring deals over the period (and divestments) 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 5 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 6
What is at stake in the external growth strategies we are observing? Targeted firms were mostly (7) located in the main world producing countries During the last 8 years, the 5 biggest deals add up to 1 billion. Although it is difficult to discriminate between the wines and spirits activities of these market dominating multinational firms: About % of the financial deals are specific to the wine sector (and are geared towards a total control, against 4% in the spirit sector) About 5 firms have obtained a market quotation (IPO) over the period, but only a few since 3. Is there a financialisation starting in the wine sector? 7 Deals by target country (1998-5) South Africa Germany Greece China Russia Chile USA Spain 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 1998-1 - 5 Gaining strong and long term access to wine sources (grapes) was a dominant motivation behind major deals 8 Control objectives of the deals? /3rd of the investors are located in wine producing countries and tend to invest in their home market Minoriy stake 3% Joint-ventures Operations by deal type (1998-5) Other 9% Acquisition for control 4% Total acquisition 3% Most of the deals were aiming at gaining majority or full control over the firms purchased 9 Top acquirers countries (1998-5) Non identified 18% Others 3% 1% 11% United States 9% Spain 8% Priority is given to a further concentration in their home markets 1 Investors located in non wine producing countries tend to invest. in cross border deals Targets for cross border deals Top acquirers countries (1998-5) Top target countries (1998-5) Others 4% Canada Germany 7% 1 United States 1 11% Anglo- American investors give a priority to transnational deals 11 13% 7% Other China Portugal 4% Moldavia New-Zealand 4% 4% Producing countries, but also potential markets 1
l Correlation between Average transaction value and Number of transactions There is also a change in the nature of the investors ($mil) 18 ($mil) 16 ($mil) 14 ($mil) 1 ($mil) 1 ($mil) 8 ($mil) 6 ($mil) 4 ($mil) ($mil) ($mil) 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 Average Transaction value Number of Transactions 16 14 1 1 8 6 4 In 5, the purchase of Allied Domecq by Pernod Ricard and Fortune Brands became the most expensive deal of all times 13 Since 1998, the number of deals by some fifty financial institutions have been multiplied by 5. 6 5 N u m 4 b e r o 3 f d e a s 1 1998 1999 1 3 4 5 Since 199, wine specialised funds have appeared. About ten of them have realized almost fifty operations. Some purely financial investments also appear in the wine world 14 Finally Part : Analysis of the strategies involved On average, deals are increasing both in number and in value. Since 1998, the number of actors has been multiplied by 5. They are mostly industrial, but financial institutions ansd specialised funds play a growing role 1. Ensuring long-term supply of wine or grape. The development or acquisition of strong corporate brands 3. The control over distribution networks A few examples of deals will follow 15 16 Ensuring long-term supply of wine or grape The development or acquisition of strong corporate brands McGuigan acquires strong production capacities with Simeon. Marketing and branding activities can be extended to the Simeon wine portofolio. Two years later: the oversupply of grapes makes this merger for Mc Guigan probably less attractive, but export is going well Also a Champagne and other renown wine Brian McGuigan Wines (): Simeon wines February Upper market brands reinforcement Repositioning the Woodbridge-brand Gaining better access to the UK market Sales of some vineyards Expected synergies: $ 35 million/year Constellation Brands (US): The Robert Mondavi December 4 producing areas issue. 17 18
The control over distribution networks Combined strategies Both national or transnational (with new export opportunities). Potential change in the mix of wine, spirit and beer portfolio. Partially avoid difficult central buying negotiations with dominating multiples. Has been recently growing to represent % of the deals in between and 5. Castel (): Wine Cellar and Oddbins (UK) s 19 Motivation & effects Search for a global leadership in the premium wine market. Building a multi beverage model. Possession of vineyards (was a previous motivation of Southcorp when buying Rosemount). Foster (): Southcorp () 5 Combined strategies Part 3 : A look into the future Motivation & effects This deal was more spirit -driven. Pernod Ricard is however building up an interesting wine-portfolio: Champagne (Mumm, Perrier-Jouët), Campo Viejo (Spain), Montana (New-Zealand) come as a reinforcement to Orlando s success () Pernod Ricard (): Allied Domecq (UK) April 5 1. Excess supply of grapes will continue to put pressure on prices and margins.. Increasing concentration of suppliers, importers, and distributors worldwide means that competition in the attractive price segments gets fiercer. 3. Emerging mimicry of the other drinks in the wine sector? 4. Fewer potential listed targets for takeover. Future focus on spirits and Champagne with a potential sale of its wineactivities? 1 Shareholders changes of behaviour Which trend for the future: investing in land and wineries or distributors/importers? Shareholders are requiring: further rationalization and consolidation in the industry, more competent management, a governance geared to creating more value for the shareholders (Share buybacks). Cost of land is attractive for future investments in Argentina, Brazil, China and India, When investing in expensive renown vineyards can lead to reduced returns. Size is key in terms of marketing economies of scale and negotiating power, When distributors are thriving for more market power. 3 4
Reasons for success or failure of financial investments Questions to be discussed Production facilities concentration. Corporate brands. Distributions networks control. Is the observed concentration in the wine industry leading to a larger dependence upon financial investors and shareholders? Debt level. Experience in mergers and acquisitions. Will a few multinational firms in the wine and spirits dominate the market for brands? Participation of financial investors. The existence of a wine cluster environment. Control of the majority of the capital. 5 Will this sector become more dependent from the willingness of the consumer to pay and from the potential return which will be offered to the shareholders? 6 Thank you for your attention Email: coelho@supagro.inra.fr 7