The State of Foodservice and What it Means to the Pork Industry Prepared for: Fall Packer Processor Industry Council Meeting SEPTEMBER 25, 2014 technomic.com
5 Critical Trends Driving Foodservice Directions Authenticity New healthy definition Smaller portions Sustainability Value dimensionalization 2
1. Authenticity Is Now the Norm Tomato Cream Chutney Sriracha Aioli Tahini 60% Chimichurri Bordelaise 60% of eating occasions from foodservice are global cuisines. Ponzu Pico de Gallo Tzatziki Caribbean Jerk 3
Authentic Flavors + Meats = Major Trend 4
Pork Implications Establish pork as base for flavorings Identify, innovate around, produce, ethnic pork concepts Opportunity for pork to expand far beyond current applications 5
2. Definition of Healthy Has Changed Yesterday Low calorie Low fat Low saturated fat Not good tasting Denial What you can t have Today Wholesome Natural No preservatives Moderation Made-to-order Nutritious Better-for-me Produce It s All About Fresh Source: Technomic Inc. Fresh is the new healthy 6
Fresh and Healthy : Strong Link % Consumers Indicating Terms Means Healthy Fresh Homemade/house made Real Made from scratch Premium Artisan Authentic Seasonal 42% 43% 40% 36% 40% 35% 33% 33% 71% 76% 58% 63% 58% 58% 87% 87% Male Female Source: Technomic, Inc., The Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 7
The Foodservice Healthy-Tasty Spectrum Breed Farm Raised 8
Pork Implications Local, breed identification have brand power Important to tell the story of pork origin, environment Less processed, fewer additives, the better 9
3. Smaller Portions Abound Snacking Sharing Variety Economizing 10
The Marketing Message Small Plates: Sharing & Something for Everyone Shareability, variety and value New small-plate and appetizer menus Price-tiered menus help price-conscious consumers identify value The new Taste & Share Menu at Fridays. Something for everyone. No, really 11
Restaurants Place Snacking at Center Stage Enables: Smaller portions for snacking Food cost efficiencies 12
Pork Implications Hand-held application innovation has value Cut variety an opportunity Pricing hits the sweet spot on price point, food cost 13
4. Consumer Are More Socially Conscious Top 2 Box It is important to me to purchase meat that is free of antibiotics and/or hormones 70% It is important to me to purchase locally grown or locally sourced food whenever possible I am more likely to visit restaurants and other foodservice establishments that I perceive to be environmentally or socially conscious 63% 65% Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+; Consumers responded on a 1 6 scale where 1 = do not agree at all and 6 = strongly agree 14
Social Responsibility Plays a Role in Foodservice Venue Selection Top 2 Box Uses Meat from Animals Raised Humanely Environmentally Friendly Practices 55% 47% 53% 44% Socially Responsible 40% 52% Strives to be Energy Efficient Gives Back to the Community 47% 37% 45% 37% Millennials Gen Xers + Boomers Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+; Consumers responded on a 1 6 scale where 1 = do not agree at all and 6 = strongly agree 15
Operators Will Practice More Sustainable Purchasing Practices in the Future Operators agreeing that will have a great or moderate influence on purchase decisions in the future. Buying local 84% No chemicals /pesticides 84% Clean labels 82% Sustainably produced No hormones/antibiotics Humane animal treatment 82% 79% 79% 16
Pork Implications Expect increasing demand for more socially-acceptable products More transparency in labeling required Cleaner labels will be advantaged 17
5. Value Dimensionalization Previous Definition Low Price + Good Quality NEW Definition Fair Price + Exceptional Quality + Myriad of Other Factors 18
Myriad of Value Components Source: Technomic, The Value & Pricing Consumer Trend Report (2013) 19
Value Through Convenience, Customization, Fast Service Being Addressed 20
Value Offered Through Pricing Still Prominent, But Have Implications 21
5 Critical Trends Driving Foodservice Directions Authenticity Trends Have Evolved Two New Opportunity Areas New healthy definition Fast Casual Smaller portions Sustainability Value dimentionalization Supermarket Prepared Foods (SPF) 22
Fast Casual Restaurants (FCR): Solidly Addressing Consumer Trends 23 23
Fast Casual Attributes Align with Millennial Desires Full view preparation Fresh Fine ingredients Flexible offerings Friendly employees Fast Casual Appeals Fitter, wholesome food Food quality Fast service Fair price First-rate décor Source: Technomic 24
Fast Casual Is a Subset of Limited Service 2013 Total QSR $196B 85% FCR $35B 15% LSR: $231B* QSR Fast food <$9.00 check Fast service system Strong takeout orientation FCR Better quality offerings $9+ check Fair price Even split: takeout / on-premise *Sales, including alcohol. Source: Technomic 25
Food Quality/Craveability Fast Casual Is in an Attractive Position Polished CDR $20-50 Fast Casual $8-$12 Traditional CDR $12-20 QSR <$8 MSR $8-13 Price 26
6 of the 10 Fastest-Growing Chains over the Past 5 Years Are Fast Casual Total % Growth, 2008 2013 4,113% 424 277 195 151% 138 136 126 151 118 27
FCR Taking Share in Limited Service FCR Share of LSR Fast Casual Sales 2002 6% $8B 2007 9% $18B 2013 15% $35B 2018(F) 19% $54B 28
Supermarket Prepared Foods: The 80 s It s no secret that singles and affluent consumers want convenience items. We realized that prepared foods were a big part of that. Progressive Grocer, July 1989 Interview with Gnazzo s Food Center 29
Supermarket Prepared Foods: The 90 s Prepared meals came in near the bottom of the list of criteria consumers use to select supermarkets, and only 12% of shoppers said they almost always or frequently buy prepared foods. Progressive Grocer Annual Report, April 1997 Late1990 s Early 1990 s 30
Supermarket Prepared Foods: The 00 s While center store categories aren t considered as glamorous as fresh prepared foods, they remain the bread and butter of the supermarket trip, and as such, still drive both sales and traffic. Progressive Grocer, April 2005 31
Where We Are Today
Supermarket Prepared Foods: Today Profitability is up for operators, as 60% expect to find an increased bottom-line foodservice profit this year, compared to 55% in 2012. CS News, September 2013 33
Current State of Supermarket Prepared Foods: $23B Opportunity Explosion of choice + Strategic efforts of retailers = Level Playing Field 34
Supermarkets Are Positioning for Prepared Foods Growth 15% 70% of center store has shrunk in past 10 years of supermarkets planning future reductions in center store 10% reduction of center store in next 5 years (on average) Source: FMI, Technomic 35
Prepared Foods as % of Deli Sales 57% 51% 52% 52% 53% 53% 55% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Overall retail flat (real) but 8% SPF growth Source: Nielsen, Supermarket News, Technomic 36
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Final Thoughts Critical to start with consumers when looking at foodservice directions Consumers no longer satisfied with just good Cautious with spending but will spend on better and best Trends require new thinking, game plan 39
Pork has great opportunity to capitalize on new directions 40
Questions? Joe Pawlak Senior Vice President jpawlak@technomic.com 312-876-0004 foodinfo@technomic.com technomic.com 41