- May 2015 Sugar #11 and #5 : prices May: back to the cruel reality The gains that sugar had obtained in April totally disappeared in May: white and raw sugar lost around 7 on the first term, when expressed in US$ (p.1). Raw finishedmayunder12cts/lbandseemsnowstuckatthis6yearlow. Afterthehopesgivenbythechange ofterms,attheendofapril,speculatorsreturned toasellerposition(p.2).andthismaylast,atleastfortworeasons. The first is linked to currencies: they remained highly sensitive to the strong US dollar this month, especially the Brazilian Real, which lost almost 3.5 (and the Euro,whichlost2.3).Thesloping curveofthebrazilianrealcomparedtous$(p.7)is,onceagain, notcomfortableforthenearfuture,and willcertainlyimpact thevalueofsugarinjune(seethewabcgstudypublishedinmay). The second reason is that, all around the world, production is really, really abundant: -Indiahasannounced thatitwillproducemorethan28.3mtin2014-15,whichwouldbesimilartotheall-timehighproducedin6/07. - Thailand produced more sugar in 2014/15 than initially thought(11.6mt, thus almost the same as last year). -AccordingtoFoLicht,Brazilmayproduce morethan37.3mtofsugarin2014-15 whichisonly2.9mtlessthantherecordyear,in2012-13! - And Cuba is coming back into the race, with 1.9Mt of sugar announced in 2014-15, thus, almost 18 more than last year and an 11 year high! Is it the beginning of something in this former 8Mt producer(it was in the 1990 s)? Sugar is not alone in this depressed context: almost all cereals remained very low in May (p. 5), with soy losing more than 6. Ethanol lost 5 in USA: similar to whatoildid(brentlost4,p.4).ethanolineuropewasabitbetter,andremainedcloseto55 /hl.freightforsugar(supramaxindex)remainedalmostflat(p.8). White sugar (sugar#5, London, $/t) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, cts/lb) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, $/t) Settling date Aug 15 375,4 348,3-27,2-7,2 Oct 15 372,6 349,8-22,8-6,1 Dec 15 378,6 356,2-22,4-5,9 Mar 16 383,7 362,3-21,3-5,6 Jul 15 12,90 12,04-0,87-6,7 Oct 15 13,29 12,36-0,93-7,0 Mar 16 14,48 13,66-0,82-5,6 May 16 14,53 13,76-0,77-5,3 Jul 15 284,4 265,3-19,09-6,7 Oct 15 293,0 272,5-20,5-7,0 Mar 16 319,2 301,2-18,0-5,6 May 16 320,4 303,4-17,0-5,3 Premium Aug/Jul 15 91,0 82,9-8,1-8,9 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 Raw & White sugar over the month (daily price according to term T, US$/t) 250 04/05/2015 11/05/2015 18/05/2015 25/05/2015 Raw-T1 Raw-T2 Raw-T3 Raw-T4 White-T1 White-T2 White-T3 White-T4 $850 Sugar#11 and #5 prices since January 2010 front term, US$/t $750 $650 $550 $450 $350 $250 Raw sugar, NY White Sugar, London FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 1
Sugar #11 and #5 : open interest & non-commercial operators positions White sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) 400 400 300 300 0 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 0 Jul 15 Oct 15 Mar 16 May 16 Term White sugar (sugar#5, London, 1lot=50t) Average weekly open interest per term (x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, 1lot=112,000lb=50.8t) number number T1 29,9 30,8 1,0 3,2 439,1 266,3-172,8-39,4 T2 12,5 14,9 2,4 19,3 180,9 136,5-44,4-24,5 T3 8,3 11,1 2,9 34,7 116,3 78,1-38,2-32,8 T4 5,8 6,8 1,1 18,7 24,2 15,7-8,5-35,1 Total 0,0 NC NC NC 819,1 536,7-282,4-34,5 Net position of speculators on sugar#11 in New-York & front term prices 25 160000 23 Net position of speculators, x1,000 lots 100 21 60000 19 00 17 01/01/2012 01/07/2012 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015-40000 15 Sugar#11 price, cts/lb -90000 13-140000 11 Net position of speculators (non-commercial operators) Sugar#11 price FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 2
Sugar #11 : premium compared to Sugar#5 and prices in local currencies Front term white premium since January 2010 Front term, US$/t 175 150 125 75 50 120 Price Changes since January 2010 Front term, in local currencies, from a Basis on the 01/01/2010 110 90 80 70 60 50 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 US$ Australian $ Br. Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Baht South Afri. Rand Nota: Russian Rouble left the graph in Nov. 2014 (index>120) and came back in April 2015 Currency US $ Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand Sugar#11 Front term 284,44 265,35-19,09-6,7 359,75 342,92-16,83-4,7 860,90 831,48-29,41-3,4 1 731,69 1 615,36-116,33-6,7 253,54 242,20-11,33-4,5 18 108,34 16 900,19-1208,15-6,7 4 369,32 4 060,87-308,45-7,1 14 492,53 13 581,67-910,87-6,3 9 479,97 8 919,90-560,07-5,9 3 413,91 3 192,98-220,92-6,5 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 3
Energy markets : ethanol, crude oil & gazoline Crude oil prices since January 2010 US$/barrel 120,00,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 WTI (New-York, US market) Brent (London, 2/3 of petrol exchanges) 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 Focus on BRAZIL : Ethanol in Sao Paulo since January 2010 Price Ex-distillery, Real/l Anhydrous Hydrous 1,10 Focus on USA : Ethanol & Gazoline prices since January 2010 Front term CBOT (Ethanol) & RBOB (Gazoline), US$/l 0,90 0,70 0,50 0,30 Gazoline Ethanol Oil 59,72 58,65-1,07-1,8 66,53 63,89-2,65-4,0 Gazoline RBOB, US$/l 0,54 0,53-0,01-1,1 Ethanol In Brazil (ex. dist.) In USA (CBOT) In Europe (T2 Rtdam) WTI, US$/barrel Brent, US$/barrel Real/l (Anh., S. Paulo) Real/l (Hydr., Sao Paulo) US$/gal US$/l /l US$/l US$ 1,39 1,38-0,01-0,6 1,23 1,21-0,02-2,0 1,64 1,55-0,09 0,54 0,53-0,01 0,54 0,54 0,01 1,5 0,60 0,60-0,01-1,0 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 4-5,4
Grain markets : corn, soybeans, wheat, HFCS 900 800 700 600 HFCS-55 in US Midwest market, Monthly from USDA, in US$/t dry weight Dry HFCS 55 monthly Price in USA April-14 April-15 US$/t 722,69 780,00 7,9 cts/lb 32,79 35,39 800 Grains and sugar#11 prices since January 2010 Front term, in US$/t 700 600 400 300 Wheat (CBOT) Corn (CBOT) Soy (CBOT) Sugar#11 Corn Soy Wheat Front term (CBOT) US$/t 141,89 139,31-2,58 cts/bsl 360,40 353,84-6,56 US$/t 362,45 339,74-22,71 cts/bsl 986,52 924,72-61,80 US$/t 172,74 180,89 8,16 cts/bsl 470,16 492,36 22,20-1,8-6,3 4,7 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 5
By-products : molasses and beet pulps 400 Cane molasses and beet pulp since January 2010 In France and Netherlands, ex-tank, in US$/t 350 300 250 150 Pulp in NL (LIE) Pulp in France (ARTB) Molasses ex-tank Amsterdam (LEI) By-products prices March-15 April-15 Beet pulp pellets NL France Cane molasses (ex-tank Amsterdam) US$/t 168,01 168,70 0,68 0,4 /t 159,15 157,50-1,65-1,0 US$/t 156,24 158,52 2,28 1,5 /t 148,00 148,00 0,00 0,0 US$/t 178,94 182,62 3,68 2,1 /t 169,50 170,50 1,00 0,6 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 6
Exchange rates 110 Currency changes, compared to US$, since January 2013 Weekly based, basis on the first week of 2010 90 80 70 60 50 40 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South-African Rand Value of 1 US$ Currency Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand 0,7907 0,7738-0,0169-2,1 0,3304 0,3191-0,0113-3,4 0,1643 0,1643 0,0000 0,0 1,1219 1,0955-0,0263-2,3 0,0157 0,0157 0,0000 0,0 0,0651 0,0653 0,0002 0,4 0,0196 0,0195-0,0001-0,5 0,0300 0,0297-0,0003-0,9 0,0833 0,0831-0,0002-0,3 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 7
Freight : Baltic indexes 3 Freight indexes since January 2010 3000 2 0 1 0 0 Baltic Dry Panamax Capesize Supramax (the most used in Sugar) Freight index (Baltic) Index Baltic Dry Baltic Supramax Baltic Panamax Baltic Capesize index 578 587 9 2 619 636 18 3 619 534-85 -14 582 814 233 40 700,0 Fertilizers prices since January 2010 World bank, in US$/t 600,0,0 400,0 300,0,0,0 0,0 DAP Phosphate Rock Potassium Chloride TSP Urea DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf Phosphate rock (Moroccan), 70 BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver TSP (triple superphosphate), up to September 6 bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf; from October 6 onwards Tunisian, granular, f.o.b. Urea (Black Sea), bulk, spot, for 1985-91 (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe; 1991 (July) onwards f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 8
Market overview : the grower dashboard Sugar Sugar#11 Difference cts/lb 12,90 12,04-0,87 US$/t 284,44 265,35-19,09-6,7 Sugar#5 US$/t 375,44 348,26-27,18-7,2 Grains Ethanol cts/bsl 360,40 353,84-6,56 US$/t 141,89 139,31-2,58 cts/bsl 986,52 924,72-61,80 US$/t 362,45 339,74-22,71 cts/bsl 470,16 492,36 22,20 US$/t 172,74 180,89 8,16 /l 0,54 0,54 0,01 1,5 US$/l 0,60 0,60-0,01-1,0 US US$/l 0,54 0,53-0,01-5,4 Brazil Anydr. US$/l 1,39 1,38-0,01-0,6 Oil Brent US$/barrel 66,53 63,89-2,65-4,0 Freight Supramax Index 619 636 18 2,9 Brazilian Currency Corn (CBOT) Soybeans (CBOT) Wheat (CBOT) EU spot -1,8-6,3 4,7 Value of 1 Real US$ 0,3304 0,3191-0,0113-3,4 Value of 1 US$ Real 3,027 3,134 0,107 3,4 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 9