- May 2016 Sugar #11 and #5 : prices May: speculators brought raw sugar over 17cts/lb Raw sugar maintained a good trend throughout the month of May, gaining 6 in the month, and finishing at over 17.5cts/lb, something not seen since July 2014 (p. 1)! White sugar found it harder to follow the rhythm: gaining only 2.5. The white premium finished the month just above US$(p. 3). At the very beginning of the month, FoLicht published its estimation of deficit for 2015/2016 (9.5Mt), and also gave its first estimation for 2016/2017, with another deficit campaign (around 6.1Mt). Mid-May, the data published by ISO was slightly more conservative (deficit at 6.6Mt in 2015/2016 and at 3.8Mt in 2016/2017), but with the same pattern: we are in deficit for at least 2 campaigns. This news kept speculatorsunderpressure,andtheyarenowinarecordpositionofnetbuyer(p.2),withalmost235,000lots(morethan11mt!).thisisa historical high, and is not comfortable: the situation can turn down quite sharply once speculators change their position. It will be interesting to see how the new term will be reached, mid-june All the currencies suffered compared to US$, from Euro (-2.5) to Mexican Peso (-4.7) and Brazilian Real (-2.0), and thus sugar gains acrosstheworldwereverydifferent:from6intheusto13insouthafrica(p.7&3). Oil gained 10 in May, after a +20 in April, and finished May almost at 50US$/barrel (p. 4). And all over the world, ethanol increased: +6 in Europe, +8 in the USA and + 10 in Brazil. But sugar and ethanol are quite isolated: corn and wheat remained dramatically low despite small gains(p. 5), and freight remained at a historically low level. White sugar (sugar#5, London, $/t) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, cts/lb) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, $/t) Settling date Aug 16 466,3 478,1 11,8 2,5 Oct 16 462,1 479,3 17,1 3,7 Dec 16 461,1 479,7 18,6 4,0 Mar 17 460,8 480,4 19,6 4,2 Jul 16 16,14 17,10 0,96 6,0 Oct 16 16,44 17,36 0,92 5,6 Mar 17 16,92 17,76 0,84 5,0 May 17 16,61 17,40 0,79 4,7 Jul 16 355,8 377,0 21,25 6,0 Oct 16 362,5 382,7 20,2 5,6 Mar 17 372,9 391,5 18,6 5,0 May 366,3 383,6 17,4 4,7 Premium Aug 16/Jul 16 110,6 101,1-9,5-8,6 490 470 450 430 410 390 370 350 Raw & White sugar over the month (daily price according to term T, US$/t) 330 02/05/2016 09/05/2016 16/05/2016 23/05/2016 Raw-T1 Raw-T2 Raw-T3 Raw-T4 White-T1 White-T2 White-T3 White-T4 Sugar#11 and #5 prices since January 2010 front term, US$/t $800 $700 $600 $ $400 $300 $ Raw sugar, NY White Sugar, London FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 1
Sugar #11 and #5 : open interest & non-commercial operators positions White sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) 400 400 300 300 0 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 0 Jul 16 Oct 16 Mar 17 May 17 Term White sugar (sugar#5, London, 1lot=50t) Average weekly open interest per term (x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, 1lot=112,000lb=50.8t) number number T1 55,7 55,8 0,1 0,2 400,7 380,1-20,6-5,1 T2 18,1 20,1 2,0 11,2 186,5 253,8 67,3 36,1 T3 11,7 13,4 1,7 14,5 122,8 144,7 21,9 17,8 T4 8,8 10,1 1,3 14,3 19,5 26,5 7,1 36,5 Total 98,8 104,5 5,7 5,8 791,9 877,8 85,8 10,8 Net position of speculators on sugar#11 in New-York & front term prices 260000 24 Net position of speculators, in lots (1lot : 50t) 22 160000 20 100 18 60000 00 16 01/01/2012 01/07/2012 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 01/01/2016 01/07/2016-40000 14 Sugar#11 price, cts/lb -90000 12-140000 10 Net position of speculators (non-commercial operators) Sugar #11 price FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 2
Sugar #11 : premium compared to Sugar#5 and prices in local currencies Front term white premium since January 2010 Front term, US$/t 175 150 125 75 50 160 Price Changes since January 2013 Front term, in local currencies, from a Basis on the 01/01/2013 150 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 50 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 01/01/2016 01/07/2016 US$ Australian $ Br. Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Baht South Afri. Rand Nota: Russian Rouble left the graph in Jan 2015 (index>160) and came back between Feb. and Oct. 2015 Currency US $ Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand Sugar#11 Front term 355,78 377,03 21,25 6,0 474,07 523,19 49,12 10,4 1 246,39 1 347,87 101,48 8,1 2 307,90 2 471,61 163,71 7,1 310,36 337,33 26,97 8,7 23 651,50 25 352,43 1700,93 7,2 6 246,59 6 948,54 701,94 11,2 23 380,37 24 978,55 1598,18 6,8 12 439,97 13 422,91 982,94 7,9 5 199,97 5 897,91 697,94 13,4 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 3
Energy markets : ethanol, crude oil & gazoline Crude oil prices since January 2010 US$/barrel 120,00,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 WTI (New-York, US market) Brent (London, 2/3 of petrol exchanges) 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 Focus on BRAZIL : Ethanol in Sao Paulo since January 2010 Price Ex-distillery, Real/l Anhydrous Hydrous 1,00 Focus on USA : Ethanol & Gazoline prices since January 2010 Front term CBOT (Ethanol) & RBOB (Gazoline), US$/l 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Gazoline Ethanol Oil 44,24 49,01 4,78 10,8 45,16 49,12 3,96 8,8 Gazoline RBOB, US$/l 0,40 0,43 0,03 8,6 Ethanol In Brazil (ex. dist.) In USA (CBOT) In Europe (T2 Rtdam) WTI, US$/barrel Brent, US$/barrel Real/l (Anh., S. Paulo) Real/l (Hydr., Sao Paulo) US$/gal US$/l /l US$/l value 1,53 1,62 0,09 5,6 1,34 1,48 0,14 10,5 1,51 1,64 0,13 0,40 0,43 0,03 0,52 0,55 0,03 6,1 0,60 0,62 0,02 3,2 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 4 8,4
Grain markets : corn, soybeans, wheat, HFCS HFCS-55 in US Midwest market, Monthly from USDA, in US$/t dry weight Dry HFCS 55 monthly Price in USA 900 800 700 April-15 April-16 US$/t 780,00 908,71 16,5 cts/lb 35,39 41,23 600 800 Grains and sugar#11 prices since January 2010 Front term, in US$/t 700 600 400 300 Wheat (CBOT) Corn (CBOT) Soy (CBOT) Sugar#11 Corn Soy Wheat Front term (CBOT) US$/t 148,78 159,13 10,35 cts/bsl 377,90 404,20 26,30 US$/t 375,57 394,22 18,65 cts/bsl 1 022,25 1 073,00 50,75 US$/t 169,26 173,03 3,77 cts/bsl 460,70 470,95 10,25 7,0 5,0 2,2 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 5
By-products : molasses and beet pulps 400 Cane molasses and beet pulp since January 2010 In France and Netherlands, ex-tank, in US$/t 350 300 250 150 Pulp in NL (LIE) Pulp in France (ARTB) Molasses ex-tank Amsterdam (LEI) By-products prices March-16 April-16 Beet pulp pellets NL France Cane molasses (ex-tank Amsterdam) US$/t 176,75 171,12-5,63-3,2 /t 159,75 151,65-8,10-5,1 US$/t 174,81 178,29 3,48 2,0 /t 158,00 158,00 0,00 0,0 US$/t 183,77 187,31 3,54 1,9 /t 166,10 166,00-0,10-0,1 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 6
Exchange rates Currency changes, compared to US$, since January 2013 Weekly based, basis on the first week of 2010 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 01/01/2016 01/07/2016 Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South-African Rand Value, in US$, of the Currency Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand 0,7505 0,7206-0,0298-4,0 0,2854 0,2797-0,0057-2,0 0,1542 0,1525-0,0016-1,0 1,1463 1,1177-0,0286-2,5 0,0150 0,0149-0,0002-1,1 0,0570 0,0543-0,0027-4,7 0,0152 0,0151-0,0001-0,8 0,0286 0,0281-0,0005-1,8 0,0684 0,0639-0,0045-6,6 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 7
Freight : Baltic indexes 3 Freight indexes since January 2010 3000 2 0 1 0 0 Baltic Dry Panamax Capesize Supramax (the most used in Sugar) Freight index (Baltic) Index Baltic Dry Baltic Supramax Baltic Panamax Baltic Capesize index 662 611-51 -8 582 569-12 -2 625 601-24 -4 987 823-164 -17 700,0 Fertilizers prices since January 2010 World bank, in US$/t 600,0,0 400,0 300,0,0,0 0,0 01/01/2010 01/07/2010 01/01/2011 01/07/2011 01/01/2012 01/07/2012 01/01/2013 01/07/2013 01/01/2014 01/07/2014 01/01/2015 01/07/2015 01/01/2016 DAP Phosphate Rock Potassium Chloride TSP Urea DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf Phosphate rock (Moroccan), 70 BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver TSP (triple superphosphate), up to September 6 bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf; from October 6 onwards Tunisian, granular, f.o.b. Urea (Black Sea), bulk, spot, for 1985-91 (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe; 1991 (July) onwards f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 8
Market overview : the grower dashboard Sugar Sugar#11 Difference cts/lb 16,14 17,10 0,96 US$/t 355,78 377,03 21,25 6,0 Sugar#5 US$/t 466,34 478,12 11,78 2,5 Grains Ethanol cts/bsl 377,90 404,20 26,30 US$/t 148,78 159,13 10,35 cts/bsl 1 022,25 1 073,00 50,75 US$/t 375,57 394,22 18,65 cts/bsl 460,70 470,95 10,25 US$/t 169,26 173,03 3,77 /l 0,52 0,55 0,03 6,1 US$/l 0,60 0,62 0,02 3,2 US US$/l 0,40 0,43 0,03 8,4 Brazil Anydr. US$/l 1,53 1,62 0,09 5,6 Oil Brent US$/barrel 45,16 49,12 3,96 8,8 Freight Supramax Index 582 569-12 -2,1 Brazilian Currency Corn (CBOT) Soybeans (CBOT) Wheat (CBOT) EU spot 7,0 5,0 2,2 Value of 1 Real US$ 0,2854 0,2797-0,0057-2,0 Value of 1 US$ Real 3,503 3,575 0,072 2,0 FlashMarket from WABCG - www.wabcg.org - Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 9