Corn and Soybean CORN OUTLOOK SOYBEAN OUTLOOK STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

Corn and Soybean CORN OUTLOOK SOYBEAN OUTLOOK STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS CLAL (and its officers, employees and auxiliary persons) shall not be liable to clients, web users or anyone else for any loss or injury from use of the data (either provided from external information providers and/or from data processed by CLAL) and/or information and/or for any decision made or action taken by the client in reliance on such content. Even though this site was put together with the utmost attention, the information it contains may include printing, technical or other errors. The information may be altered or revised at any time without prior notice. This slideshow subject to the Legal Notice and Privacy of the CLAL.it website.

CORN OUTLOOK

CORN - Global and US outlook Forecast season Sep 2016 - Aug 2017 World Data (2016-17) Million Tons From January outlook Beginning Stocks 210.39 +0.2% Production 1,040.21 +0.2% Domestic Consumption 1,033.03 +0.6% Ending Stocks 217.56-1.5% Source (data and forecast): USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. U.S. Data (2016-17) Million Tons Billion Bushels From January outlook Beginning Stocks 44.12 1.74 0.0% Production 384.78 15.15 0.0% Domestic Consumption 314.85 12.40 +0.3% Exports 56.52 2.23 0.0% Ending Stocks 58.93 2.32-1.5% Source (data and forecast): USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. CORN conversion factors: 1 bushel = 0.027 metric ton - 1 metric ton = 39.38 bushel.

CORN - Global outlook: production, utilization and stocks World Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e: estimated, p:previsional 225 200 Ending Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Total Use (right axis) 1.200 1.150 175 1.100 150 1.050 125 1.000 Mio t Mio t 100 950 75 900 50 850 25 800 0 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season 750

Corn Ending stocks (China and U.S.) Quantity % on total World Corn Ending Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e:estimated, p:previsional World Corn Ending Stocks (% on total) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e: estimated, p: previsional 400 100% 350 China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks 80% 300 250 60% Mio t 200 % 150 40% 100 20% 50 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season 0% 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Corn prices $/bushel

SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

SOYBEAN - Global and U.S. outlook Forecast season Oct 2016 - Sep 2017 World Data (2016-17) Million Tons From January outlook Beginning Stocks 77.19 0.0% Production 336.62-0.4% Domestic Consumption 330.75 +0.1% Ending Stocks 80.38-2.4% Source: USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. U.S. Data (2016-17) Million Tons Billion Bushels From January outlook Beginning Stocks 5.35 0.20 0.0% Production 117.21 4.31 0.0% Domestic Consumption 56.02 2.06 0.0% Exports 55.79 2.05 0.0% Ending Stocks 11.44 0.42 0.0% Source: USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017), processed by CLAL. SOYBEANS conversion factors: 1 bushel = 0.027 metric ton - 1 metric ton = 36.74 bushel.

SOYBEAN - Global outlook: production, utilization and stocks World Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e: estimated, p:previsional 90 80 Ending Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Total Use (right axis) 380 360 70 340 60 320 50 300 Mio t Mio t 40 280 30 260 20 240 10 220 0 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season 200

Soybean Ending stocks (China and U.S.) Quantity % on total World Soybean Ending Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e:estimated, p:previsional World Soybean Ending Stocks (% on total) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 e: estimated, p: previsional 120 100% China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks 100 80% 80 60% Mio t 60 % 40% 40 20 20% 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season 0% 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 (e) 2016 17 (p) season

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Soybean prices $/bushel

STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

CORN and SOYBEAN - World main producers 5 countries produce 76% of world Corn output. Total Corn production: 1040.21 Mio t 3 countries produce 82% of world Soybean output. Total Soybean production: 336.62 Mio t Corn main producers (Forecast 2016 17) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 Soybean main producers (Forecast 2016 17) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 Others : 24% Others : 18% United States : 37% United States : 35% Argentina : 4% Argentina : 16% EU 28 : 6% Brazil : 8% China : 21% Brazil : 31%

CORN and SOYBEAN - World main exporters 4 countries export 86% of world Corn export. Total Corn export: 148.97 Mio t 3 countries export 89% of world Soybean export. Total Soybean export: 140.11 Mio t Corn main exporters (Forecast 2016 17) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 Soybean main exporters (Forecast 2016 17) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 10 Others : 14% Others : 11% Argentina : 6% Ukraine : 13% United States : 38% Brazil : 42% Argentina : 17% United States : 40% Brazil : 19%

TOP 10 Producers: Variations of Corn Yields +0.99 MT/H +0.00 MT/H -0.99 MT/H Source (data and forecast): USDA - Processed by: CLAL - Latest update: 2017-02-10.

TOP 10 Producers: Variations of Soybean Yields +0.49 MT/H +0.00 MT/H -0.49 MT/H Source (data and forecast): USDA - Processed by: CLAL - Latest update: 2017-02-10.

Corn and Soybean prices in the USA, Argentina and Italy Comparison of Corn prices in Italy, USA and Argentina Processed by CLAL Comparison of Soybeans prices in Italy, USA and Argentina Processed by CLAL 300 600 Corn price Italy Corn price USA Corn price Argentina Soy flour price Italy Soybeans price USA Soybeans price Argentina 250 500 200 400 USD / Ton 150 USD / Ton 300 100 200 50 100 0 2015 2016 2017 Years 0 2015 2016 2017 Years

Agricultural and Energy Inputs Correlations Price comparison: Corn (Italy), Soy flour (Italy) and Crude Oil (U.S.) Historical comparative overview between Italian Corn and Soy Flour price with the Crude Oil price Processed by CLAL 700 140,00 Italian corn price Italy Italian soy flour price Italy Crude Oil price US 600 120,00 500 100,00 Corn and Soybeans: /ton 400 300 80,00 60,00 Brent: US$/bbl 200 40,00 100 20,00 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oil Price (Brent): 55.53 $/bbl - latest update: 2017/02/03 Years 0,00

Corn and Soybean U.S. Prices USA Comparative historical overview of the prices of Corn and Soybeans Processed by CLAL Latest update: 2016 12 31 17,50 Corn price USA Soybeans price USA 15,00 12,50 US$ / bushel 10,00 7,50 5,00 2,50 0,00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USDA projected season-average price Product Month $/bushel $/ton /ton Corn Feb 2017 3.40$ 134$ 126 Corn Jan 2017 3.40$ 134$ 126 Soybean Feb 2017 9.50$ 349$ 329 Soybean Jan 2017 9.50$ 349$ 327 Years

Corn and Soybean forward curve (CME futures) Corn forward curve (CME futures) Source: CME Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 14 Soybean forward curve (CME futures) Source: CME Processed by: CLAL Latest update: 2017 02 14 410 1.075 Corn CME futures Soybean CME futures 1.070 405 1.065 400 1.060 395 1.055 $/bushel $/bushel 1.050 390 1.045 385 1.040 1.035 380 1.030 375 MAR 2017 MAY 2017 JUL 2017 SEP 2017 DEC 2017 MAR 2018 1.025 MAR 2017 MAY 2017 JUL 2017 AUG 2017 SEP 2017 NOV 2017

Focus on Italy: Corn and Soy prices Italian Corn: 179-180 /ton (+3 from last month) Italian Soybean meal: 382-384 /ton (+10 from last month) Price of Farm-gate milk Italy (Lombardy) January 2017 : 37.50 /100lt Historical comparative overview between Italian Corn and Soy Flour price with the Farm gate Milk price Processed by CLAL 700 600 Italian corn price Italy Italian Soy flour price Italy Farm gate milk price Italy, Lombardy 47,50 45,00 500 42,50 / Tons 400 40,00 / 100 lt 300 37,50 200 35,00 100 32,50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Anni 30,00

Focus on Italy: The value of the Simulated Feed Ration The Simulated Feed Ration is a theoretical feed model exclusively based on the use of domestic corn and soybean extraction meal 44%; this has been taken as a model since the two constituent ingredients are the price drivers for all the raw materials available on the market. Simulated Feed Ration: value of 100kg 70kg of domestic corn meal + 30kg of soybean extraction meal 44% protein Above the columns the % variation of the total cost Inside the columns the % weight of each component on the total cost and % variation versus the previous month Quotations of the Milan Chamber of Commerce Processed by CLAL 35 30kg soybean extraction meal 44% 70kg corn meal 30 +8,96% /100kg 25 20 15 9,98 45% 0,35% 9,86 45% 1,20% 1,30% 9,75 45% 1,17% +3,69% 10,19 45% +4,49% +11,32% 12,13 48% +19,15% 13,04 48% +7,48% 4,97% 12,44 48% 4,66% 7,27% 11,18 46% 10,13% 6,10% 0,11% 10,65 47% 4,70% 10,70 47% +0,42% +4,04% +0,44% 11,21 48% +4,77% 11,26 48% +0,45% +2,02% 0,13% 11,61 48% +3,15% 11,49 48% 1,03% 10 5 12,12 55% 12,16 55% +0,36% 11,99 55% 1,41% 12,36 55% +3,04% 12,96 52% +4,87% 14,30 52% +10,35% 13,54 52% 5,26% 12,91 54% 4,65% 11,97 53% 7,32% 11,90 53% 0,58% 12,30 52% +3,38% 12,36 52% +0,43% 12,48 52% +0,99% 12,56 52% +0,70% 0 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Visit the page Feed composition analysis