The People of Perth Past, Present and Future John Henstridge Data Analysis Australia UDIA Pemberton 2003
Overview The Past Population growth Population Structure The Present Future How we forecast What do we forecast UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 2
A Statisticians View The numbers and their meaning Look behind sources like the Census Three dimensions Demographic Geography Social And how these combine UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 3
Why Bother with Demographics? Directly impacts urban development UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 4
Trends in people, houses Both increasing Rates critical to urban development 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Persons 800,000 600,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Households 400,000 200,000 Detail even more important 200,000 100,000 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 5
Health Needs Heavily weighed to the elderly 90 and over 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Accident and Emergency 60-64 Young adults have a minor peak Accidents Age 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 Females Males 25-29 20-24 Where do you place services And people move to services 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Rate per 1000 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 6
Justice Youth orientation 60 and over 55-59 50-54 Imprisonment Urban environment affects crime Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 Females Males 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 4 8 12 16 Rate per 1000 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 7
The Past Population since 1829 Perth now 75% of state population 2000 Population 1000's 1500 1000 Rest of State Perth 500 0 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 8
Perth as part of Western Australia Now 75% of population Australians prefer the coast Are we a maritime nation? UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 9
1942 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 10
Measuring Growth Census every fives years 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, Australian Census one of the best in the world Now readily available UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 11
1981 Perth reaches size of Adelaide UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 12
1986 America s Cup UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 13
1991 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 14
1996 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 15
2001 Latest Census UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 16
Ages 1961 Age Profile 1961 Shaped by the war 85 + 80-84 And the depression 75-79 70-74 65-69 Baby boom dominates 32.5% aged less than 15 >20% at school Age 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 Australia WA 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Proportion of Population UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 17
Ages 1981 Age Profile 1981 High growth has made WA young Mineral boom 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Australia WA Influx from the East 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 Time of major development 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of Population UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 18
Ages 2001 Age profile 2001 Western Australia almost matches all Australia Age 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 19
The Present The past leaves an imprint on the present Who we are Where we live Same as but different from the rest of Australia UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 20
Age 0-40 Proportion of 0-4 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 50% UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 21
Age 5-145 Proportion of 5-14 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 22
Age 15-24 Proportion of 15-24 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 23
Age 25-39 Proportion of 25-49 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 24
Age 60 + Proportion of 60 year olds and over 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 25
Household size Average Persons Per Household 2001 CDs 0.6 to < 2 2 to < 3 3 to < 4 4 to < 5 5 or more UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 26
The Future Forecasting is always difficult Especially when applied to the future UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 27
Forecasting Population Simple demographics People get older Some die More are born Some move away Some move in Measure using statistics Combine using mathematics UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 28
What a Model Looks Like Consider five year age groups And five year time periods E.g. from 1996 to 2001 Match Census years UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 29
Let most people age Move to the next age group The one exact thing Some do not make it Age specific mortality Well measured Very predictable UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 30
Add in births People produce babies Age specific birth rates Linked to adult females Well measured Births registered Reasonably predictable UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 31
Subtract emigration Add immigration Both also depend on age Intrastate Interstate Overseas Poorly measured Only from Census Poorly predicted Linked to economy UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 32
Put it together Complex when combined Still need to think of gender Most demographers think males irrelevant Do for each area Australia State Local area UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 33
What drives it? Births greatly outnumber deaths 25,000 births, 10,000 deaths Will do so for next 20 years Due to young profile Then Births will be static, deaths increase Migration from other states Young people aged 20-35 Looking for jobs Depends strongly upon economy Keeps age profile young Few leaving UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 34
Birth rate declining Women having fewer children Declined to 1.7 per woman Not enough to sustain population Women having children at a greater age Greater time between generations Slows rate of change UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 35
Fertility Trends Boom and bust Economic factors Downward trend 4 3 2 Fertility Below replacement 1 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 36
Migration Changing and Declining Australia less attractive to older sources Fewer immigrants from Europe WA less attractive to rest of Australia Resource industries less labour intensive Globalisation reduces Perth operations to branch offices UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 37
Implications for Population Population growth declining Current growth half due to aging This will disappear in 30 years Growth fed by migration UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 38
2011 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 39
2021 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 40
People are not everything Social structures also changing Gender equality Employment patterns Education UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 41
Household Size Heading down Continuing trend since 1960 4 Average Household Size 3 2 1 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Change in definition in 1985 UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 42
Household Structure Increase in small households Large households static 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 1991 1996 2001 Dramatic change for only 10 years 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Household Size UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 43
Economic Changes In 1981 Gary Becker predicted that economic changes would affect family structures Families partly based upon economic marriage of convenience Economic benefit of being in a family less now We see it happening If you outsource cooking (restaurants, takeaway) and cleaning who needs a traditional wife? UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 44
How long will it take? Age profile 2001 Next 25 years will see population bulge reach limit Flat profile Low growth will follow New definition of elderly in community Age 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 45
Implications for Developments Household size is declining Effect is part demographic, part social Demographic part can be predicted Social part means that family is together for a shorter period Demand for some housing will suddenly dry up Sufficient stock of four bedroom, two bathroom houses in suburbs Demand will switch to different styles UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 46
Summary Must understand the future population Forecasts are not certain What might happen is as important for planning as what will happen The past has 80% of the answer The future will reflect the past and present The tools lie in statistics and demography UDIA Pemberton September 2003 - Page 47
Thank you