Supply & Demand for Lake County Wine Grapes Christian Miller Lake County MOMENTUM April 13, 2015
About Full Glass Research Provider of economic, market & industry research to food & drink companies and organizations, governments Economic Impact studies Supply vs. demand analysis using acreage/crush stats vs. sales data Marketing research & consulting Co-founder and research advisor for Wine Opinions Clients have included a food service company, blueberry farmer, vineyard REIT, industrial suppliers, regional wine organizations, grape brokers and many large & small wineries 2 2
Wine Opinions Clients (sampling) Full Glass Research Clients (sampling) 3 3
A Brief Review of the Project
Where are the best opportunities for Lake County grape growers? Where will the grapes achieve the highest prices? What uses and markets have the best growth potential? What are the perceptions of Lake County grapes and viticulture held by winemakers and grape buyers? Theorize three main sources of demand: high end blending, mid-price blending, Lake County AVA wines Focus on Cabernet Sauvignon and Sauvignon Blanc 5 5
Three Report Sections I. Survey of grape users & buyers to assess perceptions of Lake County grapes, their usage and pricing II. Review of current and historic acreage trends III. Comparison of current and expected supply of Lake County grapes vs. the three main sources of demand 6 6
Data Sources Interviews with Lake County producers, grape brokers and consultant winemakers Independent survey of winemakers, grape buyers, grower relations managers and grape brokers CASS acreage and crush reports 2005-2013; CASS 2014 crush report 2014 (prelim in written report; final #s here) Nielsen retail data on Cabernet and Sauvignon Blanc sales for California, Napa and Lake County; total, $13-20 and $20+ price segments. Developed projection model for estimated tonnage of Cabernet Sauvignon & Sauvignon Blanc for Lake County, Napa County and All Other California sources Sundry other data (Full Glass Research, Gomberg-Fredrikson, etc.) 7 7
Survey of Winemakers and Grape Buyers
Survey Participant Profile 64 respondents in total; not all responded to profile. There were some that preferred anonymity or manual data entry 16 under 5k cases; 6 at 5-50k cases; 17 at 50-500k cases; 4 500-999k cases and 10 at 1 million cases production or more 15 based in Napa, 10 in Sonoma, 8 in Lake County, 17 in multiple locations/wineries Primarily winemakers (22) grape buyers (11) and accounting/administration roles (10) 18 crushed over 200 tons Lake County grapes, 11 crushed 51-200 tons, 15 10-50 tons. Adjusted for respondent size and grape usage, estimated coverage of Lake County supply to the market is 55% 9 9
In your opinion, how have Lake County grapes changed over the past five years? LC growers have improved ability to work closely with wineries Lake Cty has developed distinct style of Sauv Blanc Lake Cty has developed a distinct style of Cabernet Lake County has increased quality more than most other competitor I have increased my experience with and exposure to Lake County grapes 2% 4% 6% 13% 24% 24% 31% 46% 45% 54% 59% 46% 46% 36% 19% 13% 17% 6% 4% 4% Viticultural practices have improved 24% 63% 13% Some extremely high quality vineyards or lots have emerged 2% 33% 46% 17% Quality has become more consistent, reduced variability 33% 57% 9% Quality on average has improved 22% 65% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Please rate the typical quality of Lake County grapes by variety, compared to other coastal appellations Lake County is substantially better Lake County is slightly better Lake County is about average Variable both better and worse Lake County is slightly worse Lake County is substantially worse Variety Cabernet Sauvignon 14% 39% 32% 9% 5% 2% Cabernet Franc 13% 16% 32% 26% 10% 3% Merlot 3% 18% 42% 30% 6% 0% Malbec 9% 22% 50% 13% 3% 3% Zinfandel 3% 28% 36% 26% 5% 3% Petite Sirah 14% 46% 30% 5% 3% 3% Syrah 3% 33% 48% 6% 6% 3% Tempranillo 7% 33% 47% 7% 3% 3% Sauvignon 23% 47% 28% 2% 0% 0% Blanc Muscat (all types) 0% 25% 54% 21% 0% 0% Riesling 0% 28% 38% 28% 3% 3% Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Thinking of your experience with, or the reputation of, Lake County vineyards and growers, how would you rate them compared to other California regions in terms of: Ease of transport, harvest logistics and coordination 7% 17% 21% 38% 14% 2% Ease of communications, visiting the vineyard, coordinating vineyard 5% 19% 57% 17% 2% Ability to grow grapes in the style/quality/manner you desire 2% 17% 50% 29% 2% Reliability/consistency from vintage to vintage or batch to batch 5% 12% 52% 26% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Lake County is substantially worse Variable both better and worse Lake County is slightly better Lake County is slightly worse Lake County is about average Lake County is substantially better Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Blending Wine from other Regions into Napa Wine HOW MANY WINERIES DO THIS? For $10-30 wines, 30% say ¾ to all Napa wineries do it. 47% say at least half the wineries do it. For wine over $30, 61% say less than ¼ of Napa wineries do it. Only 9% say it s ¾ or more. HOW MUCH DO THEY BLEND IN? About half say they use 12-15% other regions grapes Other responses are variable, tending higher percentages for Napa Sauvignon Blanc, lower for Napa Cabernet PRICE PAID? Cabernet: for wines under $20 $1700; $20-30 ranges $1700-2300 Sauv Blanc: $1100-$1500, depending on target retail price $15-30 Source: Full Glass Research 2014 1 3 13
Below is a list of reasons that wineries might blend Lake County Cabernet into Napa County or Napa Valley wines. Please indicate your opinion on the importance or frequency of each reason To meet production goals, given limited Napa supply 2 7 6 6 In place of weaker lots or poor quality Napa County wine 7 9 3 1 To enable us to reach production goal without compromising the blend 2 6 6 5 To improve the quality of, or add distinct character to, the blend 5 7 4 3 To reduce the average cost of the overall blend 1 9 11 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% rarely or never a reason a major reason a minor reason The dominant reason Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Below is a list of reasons that wineries might blend Lake County Sauvignon Blanc into Napa County or Napa Valley wines. Please indicate your opinion on the importance or frequency of each reason. To meet production goals, given limited Napa supply 0 6 8 5 In place of weaker lots or poor quality Napa County wine 5 7 4 3 To enable us to reach production goal without compromising the blend 0 8 6 5 To improve the quality of, or add distinct character to, the blend 2 8 4 5 To reduce the average cost of the overall blend 0 1 9 9 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% rarely or never a reason a major reason a minor reason The dominant reason Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Below is a list of reasons that wineries might blend Lake County Cabernet/SB into North Coast or California appellation wines. Please check any or all reasons that are leading or key reasons for such blending. Answer Options Cabernet Sauv Blanc To meet production goals, given limited grape supply To offset weaker or lower quality lots in the blend To enable us to reach production goal w/o compromising the blend 77% 66% 53% 69% 56% 59% To improve the quality of the blend 35% 38% To reduce the average cost of the overall blend 56% 56% Other (please specify) 6% 9% Source: Full Glass Research 2014
What is the maximum price per ton that would typically be paid for grapes that are going to be used as a substantial part of a North Coast or California blend for a wine retailing at: Maximum Price per Ton Retail Price per 750ml $12 $15 $25 <$800 4 1 0 $800-900 4 0 0 $900-1000 3 4 0 $1000-1100 6 0 0 $1100-1200 8 3 0 $1200-1300 0 4 0 $1300-1400 2 4 5 $1400-1500 1 6 2 $1500-1600 1 2 1 $1600-1700 0 2 1 $1700-1800 0 0 0 $1800-1900 0 2 4 $1900-2000 0 0 1 $2000-2100 0 0 3 $2100-2200 0 0 0 $2200-2300 0 0 1 $2300-2400 0 0 5 $2400-2500+ 0 0 2 Source: Full Glass Research 2014
Grape Supply Trends: Recent History & Current Situation
Lake County Cabernet Crush 2005 2014 16,000 14,000 $1524 $1565 $1376 $1431 $1396 $1288 $1365 $1614 $1724 $2009 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 OWNER- CRUSHED SOLD 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County Cabernet: Volume by Price 2005-2014 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County Cabernet: Price Distribution 2005-2014 100% 90% 80% 22% 23% 6% 6% 3% 1% 8% 15% 19% 23% 6% 5% 13% 13% 9% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 13% 38% 35% 59% 78% 45% 70% 80% 33% 48% 68% 49% 51% 28% 24% 26% 15% 12% 14% 7% 8% 0% 1% 4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % $3000+ %2500-3000 % $2000-2500 % $1500-2000 % $1000-1500 % <$1000 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County Sauvignon Blanc Crush 2005 2014 $1058 $1085 14,000 $943 $909 $1006 $917 $851 $883 $855 12,000 $818 10,000 8,000 OWNER- CRUSHED 6,000 SOLD 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County Sauvignon Blanc: Volume by Price 2005-2013 4,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County Sauvignon Blanc: Volume by Price 2005-2014 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 8% 11% 13% 26% 25% 22% 20% 23% 45% 65% 60% 59% 63% 41% 60% 62% 66% 72% 29% 30% 23% 48% 34% 31% 18% 12% 7% 2% 5% 0% 2% % > $1500 % $1200-1500 % $1000-1200 % $800-1000 % <$800
Projected Cabernet Tonnage to 2018 600,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 500,000 435,624 489,152 400,000 376,709 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 10,524 71,264 55,537 69,529 15,540 14,025 Lake Cab Napa Cab All other CA Cab Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Projected Cabernet Tonnage to 2018 80,000 70,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 69,529 71,264 60,000 55,537 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 10,524 14,025 15,540 0 Lake Cab Napa Cab
Projected Sauvignon Blanc Tonnage to 2018 120,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100,000 97,359 93,541 80,000 83,342 60,000 40,000 20,000 9,575 11,967 11,731 12,514 15,111 16,587 0 Lake SB Napa SB All Other CA SB Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Cabernet Under-reported in Napa? BECOMES Y ACRES IN X ACRES PLANTED IN 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NAPA CAB SAUV PLANTED IN 2009 58 89 378 378 402 NAPA CAB SAUV PLANTED IN 2010-10 137 137 148 NAPA CAB SAUV PLANTED IN 2011 - - 76 76 166 NAPA CAB SAUV PLANTED IN 2012 - - - 24 138 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Cabernet Under-reported in California? BECOMES Y ACRES IN X ACRES PLANTED IN 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 All CA CABERNET PLANTED IN 2009 632 984 1,515 1,621 1,774 All CA CABERNET PLANTED IN 2010-1,033 1,337 1,488 1,577 All CA CABERNET PLANTED IN 2011 - - 634 758 998 All CA CABERNET PLANTED IN 2012 - - - 1,693 2,830 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Supply/Demand Analysis Going Forward
Three Vectors of Demand As part of a blend in expensive ($20+/50ml bottle) wines, produced primarily in Napa Valley; As part of a blend in California Cabernet or Sauvignon Blanc in $14-20 range, typically labeled as California or North Coast ; As the main or sole source of grapes for wines marketed as Lake County AVA Cabernet Sauvignon & Sauvignon Blanc 3 1 31
Blend-based Demand from Napa Cabernet CABERNET 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Napa Harvest Tons 71,517 65,919 69,529 70,451 70,860 71,120 71,264 Tons Required at 15% blend, all Cab blended 12,621 11,633 12,270 12,433 12,505 12,551 12,576 Tons required at typical blending rates* 1,928 1,777 1,874 1,899 1,910 1,917 1,921 Tons assuming competition** 482 444 469 475 478 479 480 Lake County available supply*** 9,594 11,296 11,185 11,223 11,573 12,010 12,432 *assumes 31% Napa wineries blend, 8% average, 100% LC share. **assumes competition takes 3/4 share *** assumes 5 year average of 80% for sale Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Supply/Demand Balance for Napa Cabernet *@ 4% SALES GROWTH 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Napa Harvest Tons 65,919 68,920 70,451 70,860 71,120 71,264 Market requirements * (assume market clears in 2013) 65,919 68,556 71,298 74,150 77,116 80,200 tons long (-short) (3,542) (5,781) (8,253) (10,977) (13,928) Market requirements* (assume market cleared in 2011) 54,996 57,196 59,483 61,863 64,337 66,911 tons long (-short) 7,818 6,033 4,034 1,801 (638) Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Blend-based Demand from Napa Sauv Blanc Sauvignon Blanc 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Napa Harvest Tons 14,806 18,010 15,111 16,445 16,540 16,556 16,587 Tons Required at 15% blend, all wine blended 2,613 3,178 2,667 2,902 2,919 2,922 2,927 Tons required at typical blending rates* 1,009 1,228 1,030 1,121 1,128 1,129 1,131 Tons assuming competition** 252 307 258 280 282 282 283 Lake County available supply*** 6,100 9,277 9,233 8,137 8,218 8,273 8,329 *assumes 50% Napa wineries blend SB, 12% average, 100% LC share *** assumes 5 year average of 80% for sale **assumes competition takes 3/4 share Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Supply/Demand Balance for CA Cabernet $ $13-20 Segment *@ 5% SALES GROWTH 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Harvest Tons $13-20 segment 65,869 64,209 67,636 69,631 71,740 73,373 Market requirements * (assume market clears in 2013) 65,869 69,162 72,620 76,251 80,064 84,067 tons long (-short) 0 (4,954) (4,984) (6,620) (8,324) (10,694) Market requirements* (assume market cleared in 2012) 55,135 57,892 60,786 63,826 67,017 70,368 tons long (-short) 10,734 6,317 6,850 5,806 4,723 3,005 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County AVA Wine How Big? LCWC 2012-2013 surveys imply 444,000 cases. Interpolation from public data suggests 459,500 cases. Projected from Nielsen data: estimate 100,000 cases Lake County Sauvignon Blanc in 2013 and 129,000 cases Cabernet (not including DtC). Assume all winery-owned Lake County Cabernet and Sauvignon Blanc grapes in the 2012 crush were made into Lake County-labeled wines = 161,000 cases of Cabernet and 167,000 cases of Sauvignon Blanc. Growth rates in retail sales for Lake County Sauvignon Blanc and Cabernet are extremely robust: +19% for Sauvignon Blanc and +32% for Cabernet Sauvignon in 2014 Nielsen data. 3 6 36 Source: Full Glass Research 2015
Lake County AVA Sales vs. Supply LAKE CTY TONS USED Nielsen-based Sales CABERNET Nielsen-based Sales CABERNET Lake County Total Crush CABERNET Nielsen-based Sales SAUVIGNON BLANC Nielsen-based Sales SAUVIGNON BLANC Lake County Total Crush SAUVIGNON BLANC Assumed growth rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 32% w/decay 1,920 2,534 2,940 3,175 3,302 3,368 6% 1,920 2,035 2,157 2,287 2,424 2,569 19% w/decay 14,121 14,025 14,029 14,466 15,012 15,540 1,488 1,770 1,938 2,031 2,080 2,105 8% 1,488 1,636 1,800 1,980 2,178 2,396 13,066 11,967 11,461 11,576 11,653 11,731 Source: Full Glass Research 7 37 2015 3
Some Conclusions The Napa Blender source of demand can t absorb much more than 6-12% of Lake County Cab and Sauv Blanc. While the long term trend in Napa is towards shortage, whether we are currently short or somewhat long in Cab depends on sales of the 2012 vintage. The increase in Napa grape prices and margin pressures provide opportunity for Lake County grapes in this market to raise price. Demand for blender into $13-20 California and North Coast cabernets is sufficient to absorb most Lake County Cabernet and the trend is towards shortage of quality grapes. For Sauvignon Blanc, demand is sufficient to absorb ¼ to ¾ of Lake County grapes, depending on Lake County s perceived quality and value. The trend for Sauvignon Blanc is towards shortage. Lake County AVA wines account for 15-16% of the Lake County Cabernet and Sauvignon Blanc grapes. Current growth suggests this could easily increase to 20% of Cabernet and 29% of Sauvignon Blanc. However, sales are currently dependent on a limited number of brands, indicating both volatility and opportunity. The high proportion of Lake County Cab sales at $2000+ per ton in 2014 compared to the potential Napa blender market indicates that substantial amount of $2000+ Cabernet is being used in Sonoma and high end North Coast wines. 3 8 38
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