Beef, Veal and Lamb Report April 14, 2016 Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef production last week declined 1.4% but was 8.9% larger than last year s Easter holiday shortened week. Beef output is expected to trend modestly above 2015 levels during the next several months. Beef prices are mostly trending below year ago levels. The USDA choice boxed beef cutout is 16% below a year ago and the lowest for mid-april since 2013. However, beef demand is starting to escalate for the pending grilling season. Spot choice boxed beef shipments last week were the largest for any week since the winter of 2014. Modest beef market increases are likely to occur in the near term especially for steak cuts including strips and top sirloins. Live Cattle (Steer) Increasing Short Lower Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Good Lower Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (ch) Increasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Good Higher 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Increasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Increasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Increasing Good Lower 120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Lower 120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Higher 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Lower 121e Cap & Wedge Increasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Increasing Good Lower 168 Inside Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Increasing Good Higher 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Good Higher 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Steady Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Increasing Good Higher 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Lower 193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Good Lower 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 65% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Lower Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.americanrestaurantassociation.com- 941-379--2228
Grains World palm oil supply concerns continue to support food oil prices. During March, palm oil output in Malaysia, a major producer, declined 18.4% from last year and was the smallest for the month since 2012. Soybean oil and palm oil prices could track above 2015 levels into the summer. Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Good Higher Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Good Lower Corn, bushel Increasing Good Lower Crude Corn Oil, lb Increasing Good Higher High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Good Lower Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Steady Good Higher HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Black Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Decreasing Good Lower
Dairy The butter market has firmed reaching its most expensive price level in eight weeks. Restaurant chains and manufacturers have been active in moving recipes to butter from margarine which is boosting butter demand. Further, buyers are wary of butter price increases that have occurred during the last two spring and summers. In 2015, the butter market rose 17.7% during the next five weeks. However, any further butter price increases this year could be less intense. The cheese markets are edging lower. History suggests further modest cheese price declines could occur. Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Steady Good Higher Butter (CME) Increasing Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Lower Whey, Dry Steady Good Lower Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Higher Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower
Pork Pork output last week declined 1.2% and was 1.8% less than the same week a year ago. Hog slaughter was the smallest for any non-holiday week in seven months. Seasonally declining pork production should bring modest support to pork prices in the coming months. Retail pork prices in China have risen substantially in recent months as the pork supply declines there. Chinese retail pork prices during March were the highest since the summer of 2014. Assuming this trend continues, it could bring a boost to U.S. pork exports and prices. Live Hogs Steady Ample Higher Sow Increasing Ample Higher Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Decreasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Decreasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Decreasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Good Higher Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Higher Picnic, untrmd Increasing Good Lower SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Good Higher 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher
Poultry Chicken output for the week ending April 2 nd rose 1% from the previous week and was 3.6% larger than last year. 2016 broiler slaughter is tracking 2.1% above the prior year while weights are 1.3% heavier. The chicken breast markets have softened as of late with the ARA Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Index declining to a two week low. This is counter seasonal and not a healthy signal for chicken producers. Recent chick placement data suggests that year-on-year chicken output expansion could intensify as the spring progresses. If so, it is likely to temper any pending season chicken breast price appreciation. The chicken wing markets may find modest support in the near term as supplies are stockpiled for pending feature activity. Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Steady Good Same Wings (whole) Increasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Higher Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Lower Breast, Bone In Increasing Good Lower Breast, Boneless Skinless Decreasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (random) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (sized) Increasing Good Lower Legs (whole) Increasing Good Lower Leg Quarters Decreasing Good Lower Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Good Lower Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Lower Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Short Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Short Lower Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Lower Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Short Higher
Seafood Shrimp trade remains favorable for U.S. buyers. During February, the U.S. imported 17.5% more shrimp than a year ago posting a record high for the month. Shrimp imports from Thailand during February were up 33% from the prior year and the biggest since 2013. The shrimp markets are anticipated to generally track below last year into the summer. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Increasing Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Steady Good Lower
Paper and Plastic Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Decreasing Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Decreasing Good Lower Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Feb-16 Jan-15 Dec-15 Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Decreasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing Pork Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Increasing Various Markets Recent appreciation in the Brazilian real compared to the U.S. dollar has brought support to coffee and sugar prices. The greater longer term price risk in the coffee market remains to the upside. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Increasing Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Increasing Good Lower Coffee lb ICE Increasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower
Produce Avocado s continue to trade at engaging levels for buyers as supplies remain ample. The avocado market this week is tracking at its lowest levels for mid-april since 2006. This is due to strong imports from Mexico. Just last week avocado imports from the country were 61% bigger than the previous year. Season to date U.S. avocado imports are tracking 29% above 2015. Avocado prices could remain well below year ago levels this spring. The tomato harvest in Florida remains subpar but output is expected to improve in the coming weeks. Modestly lower tomato prices could be forthcoming. Limes (150 ct) Increasing Good Higher Lemons (95 ct) Steady Good Higher Lemons (200 ct) Steady Short Lower Honeydew (6 ct) Increasing Good Lower Cantaloupe (15 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Blueberries (12 ct) Increasing Good Higher Strawberries (12 pnt) Increasing Good Higher Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Steady Good Lower Bananas (40 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Pineapple (7 ct) Term Increasing Good Higher Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Steady Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Higher Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Steady Short Higher Processing Potato (cwt) Steady Short Lower Yellow Onions (50 lb) Increasing Good Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher Red Onions (25 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher White Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Lower Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Decreasing Good Higher Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Decreasing Good Lower Green Peppers (lg case) Decreasing Good Higher Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Decreasing Good Lower Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Increasing Good Lower Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Steady Good Lower Broccoli (14 ct) Increasing Good Lower Squash (1/2 bushel) Decreasing Good Higher Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Decreasing Good Same Green Beans (bushel) Decreasing Good Lower Spinach (flat 24) Increasing Good Higher Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Steady Good Higher Cucumbers (bushel) Decreasing Good Higher Pickles (200-300 ct) Term Increasing Good Higher Asparagus (sm) Steady Good Higher Freight (truck CA-Cty Av) Decreasing Good Lower