Zenith International and Warrick Research Global Aseptic Packaging 2012 Report Extracts 1. Effectiveness of Packaging Sterilisation Systems The various aseptic packaging systems use different methods to eliminate micro-organisms and achieve pack sterility. The different methods achieve different organism reduction rates, which can be measured precisely when carried out under repeatable controlled conditions. Most systems use hydrogen peroxide, which may be applied by immersion, spraying or vaporisation and then activated and dried off with hot air. The precise technique used will have an effect on the rate of kill of micro-organisms. The current methods of application of hydrogen peroxide solution used by major equipment manufacturers will achieve a count reduction of the order of 10 6 to 10 8 (one part per million to one part per 100 million). Similar reduction can be achieved by the use of wet heat. With other systems such as dry heat or infra-red radiation, a lower count reduction (10 4 or 10 5 ) is usually obtained. However, even though the organism reduction rate of a system can be calculated with some confidence and precision, this cannot be used to give a precise measure of the proportion of non-sterile packs that will be produced by the systems. There are a number of reasons for this:- - The proportion of non-sterile packs will vary according to pack size. The larger the pack, the higher proportion that will be non-sterile at a given rate of organism reduction. - The condition of the packaging before sterilisation will also affect the incidence of non-sterile packs. The more contaminated the packaging, the more organisms that will be left on it after sterilisation, and the higher the incidence of non-sterile packs. - Most important, the failure of the sterilisation process to kill the bacteria is not the only, or even the most important, cause of pack non-sterility. Other causes include physical defects in the packs, particularly in seals and seams, and technical failure in the aseptic packaging system. Equipment suppliers may be able to predict in theory the maximum occurrence of non-sterile packs, assuming the system works exactly as is intended. However, they cannot predict these other causes of nonsterility with the same precision as they can predict the effectiveness of the sterilising method used. There is also a practical testing problem. While it is feasible to test and check 10,000 packs for non-sterility, it is not practical to test 1 million packs, or 100,000 packs. It is therefore difficult for aseptic packaging equipment suppliers to give meaningful estimates of the maximum incidence of non-sterility that a user may expect. Equipment suppliers with many installations, and filling a standard product such as milk, can give estimates based on previous experience with reasonable confidence. Many suppliers, however, have comparatively few installations, which do not provide sufficient basis for such estimates. Many suppliers have claimed that their systems can provide a maximum non-sterility of 1 in 10,000 packs. If this rate is not achieved, they can often claim special factors - packaging defects, operator mistakes etc. - to which this can be attributed.
This has become an important issue in the past few years, with suppliers of aseptic filling systems claiming a 10 5 or 10 6 reduction in organism count. Users are more interested in rates of non-sterile pack, and there have been some instances where suppliers have had to guarantee pack sterility levels, with penalties if these are not attained. This is difficult for suppliers, because packaging defects and operator mistakes may cause non-sterility. At the same time, market requirements have changed. For some applications, filling low acid products with a meat content, users look for 100% sterility, with no instances of non-sterile packs, and undertake rigorous pack testing in an attempt to ensure total sterility. For other applications, a certain proportion of non-sterile packs is commercially acceptable. This is the case for some high acid products, where a nonsterile pack will cause the product to deteriorate but will not have serious consequences such as food poisoning. It is also the case where products will be stored in chilled conditions for a limited period, when the chilled distribution will inhibit product deterioration of any non-sterile product. Thus, while most of the market requires a virtually foolproof guarantee of total sterility, some will accept systems that fall short of this standard.
2 Aseptic and Ultra Clean Filling Systems Filling systems are now available with specified hygiene levels, each offering a different potential shelf life. - Aseptic filling implies no increase in contamination during filling, and if used with UHT processing, allows ambient distribution. Aseptic filling systems provide commercial sterility whereby no unwanted organisms will grow in the filled pack. - Ultra clean filling uses various techniques to limit recontamination to minimal levels. Typically systems have non-contact fillers, sterile air flow and rigorous cleaning schedules. Ultra clean systems reduce the presence of organisms to levels approaching zero, but are not designed to ensure zero contamination. The level is sufficiently low, that with chilled distribution preventing growth from any residual organisms, extended shelf life can be achieved. - Clean fillers allow more recontamination (but are cheaper) and are cleaner than standard fillers, of which there are few new installations. The growth in demand for extended shelf life chilled products has increased the demand for both modified processing systems, and for ultra clean packaging systems. Most equipment suppliers can provide either ultra clean or aseptic versions of their systems. In many cases, ultra clean systems use the same technology and design as fully aseptic systems but are operated to less rigorous standards, providing lower levels of pack sterility. Thus some ultra clean systems will use hydrogen peroxide, but without enclosing the filler in sterile air and possibly with lower concentrations and less rigorous cleaning systems. More commonly, sterilisation by heat or UV light will be used - these are methods which can be used for aseptic systems, but which equipment suppliers have generally found difficult to maintain total sterility. However, the level of sterility required is sufficient when used in combination with chilled storage, to provide the required shelf life. The use of aseptic or ultra clean fillers, together with UHT or modified processing, gives the following shelf life for low acid products: Processing and Filling Method Shelf Life Distribution Standard pasteurisation/clean fill 6-9 days Chilled distribution Standard pasteurisation/hygienic fill 10-15 days Chilled distribution HTST and ultra clean fill 30+ days Chilled distribution HTST and aseptic fill 40+ days Chilled distribution UHT and ultra clean fill 40+ days Chilled distribution UHT and aseptic fill 90+ days Ambient distribution If a product is stored in ambient distribution having been sterilised by heat treatment then it has been aseptically filled. If it is not aseptically filled, it will not be sterile. To achieve commercial sterility may however require different levels of organism reduction, depending on the product - whether high acid or low acid. If products are distributed in chilled conditions, they may or may not be aseptically filled. If they are aseptically filled, the filling cost - capital, labour - will be higher, although the supplier will have the option of reducing distribution costs by using ambient distribution for some or all of the distribution chain.
Use of Aseptic Fillers for ESL Products In some countries aseptic fillers are used for products which are pasteurised and then distributed through the chill chain - mainly in North America and some countries in West Europe. This is done mainly for high value dairy products - desserts in plastic pots, drinking yogurt in plastic bottles. The reasons for this approach include: - Product Safety: For major brand owners, product safety has become an increasingly important issue. Using an aseptic filler, rather than an ultra clean filler, reduces the possibility of product contamination. - Product Quality: A related issue is product quality. Using an aseptic filler may enable a gentler processing method to be used. Sometimes this approach is used to utilise existing capacity - companies have aseptic fillers, but demand for short life products.
3 Aseptic Carton Systems A.1 Overview Aseptic carton fillers account for around 75% of all installed aseptic filling lines. There are over 10,000 operational aseptic carton filling lines worldwide. Cartoning systems dominate the high volume UHT white milk market, and to a lesser extent the ambient still beverage market. The aseptic carton market was developed by Tetra Pak, which still dominates this market, which over 75% of all installations. Their main competitor is Combibloc with around 15% of installations. Other suppliers of aseptic cartoning systems include: Elopak - Norway Greatview - China IPI - Italy Lamican - Finland Shikoku - Japan These companies have only a small number of installations, mainly for high acid applications. Other Chinese companies, including Guangdong Yuandong and Zhenjiang Senmao have supplied carton fillers. Two of the world s leading paper companies, International Paper and UPM Kymmene, entered the aseptic packaging market in the 1990s as suppliers of aseptic filling systems for cartons, but both withdrew from the market The carton is a well established and reliable form of pack. It achieved dominance in milk, and to a lesser extent juice, markets where it tended to be perceived as a commodity pack. Its position has been under threat from other types of packaging, in particular plastic bottles and pouches. Tetra Pak and Combibloc defended their position by developments to make the carton more user-friendly. A wider range of pack sizes, shapes, and closure options was developed. A.2 Developments Tetra Pak have developed the Evero a bottle shaped carton, with initial installations in the European UHT milk market, competing with polymer bottles. Current development emphasis is on environmental issues and system cost and efficiency. Environmental issues include reducing energy, water and chemical usage, and improving pack recycling rates. Pack weights have also been reduced slightly. In some applications, foil barriers have been replaced by polymers to make recycling easier. Tetra Pak have started to use material derived from sugar cane in carton production. System cost and efficiency include higher line speeds, easier operation, more flexibility and faster pack change times. The carton systems use hydrogen peroxide as a sterilant. Environmental issues have created interest in alternative sterilisation methods not involving the use of chemicals, and in the medium or longer term there may be a move to alternative methods depending on the successful development of electron beam or other sterilisation methods.
A significant recent development has been the emergence of alternative suppliers of carton board for Tetra Pak fillers. The Tetra Pak system is form fill seal, and the company has been able to establish contracts whereby they are the exclusive supplier of the carton board for its aseptic filling machines. This has enabled it to supply fillers at low prices or on favourable terms, while obtaining the required margin on the supply of carton board. In recent years, alternative suppliers have entered the market, in particular in China. The main competitor is Greatview Aseptic Packaging (formerly Tralinpak) who produce carton board carton board at two large production facilities in China. In addition to selling to filling companies with Tetra Pak aseptic filling machines, the company has also developed its own aseptic carton filling system. Greatview is building a carton board production facility at Erfurt, Germany, due to open in 2012. The facility will have a capacity of about 4 billion packs p.a. This development is likely to reduce carton board prices in Europe. Other suppliers of aseptic carton board include Skylong Aseptic Packaging, of China and Posetsan of Turkey, supplying the Middle East and Central Asia.
4 Asia Pacific In 2011, over 11.7 billion litres of product were aseptically filled in Asia Pacific, using nearly 23 billion packs. The use of aseptic packaging increased by 1.5% per annum between 2008 and 2012, and usage is expected to grow at around 2.4% per annum in the period 2012 to 2016, and it is expected that 12.9 billion litres of product will be aseptically packaged by 2016. B.1 The Use of Aseptic Packaging - By Product Beverages accounted for the vast majority of aseptic packaging use in 2011 (81%), with dairy making up 10%. Food products, whilst making up the smallest amount of aseptic packaging use grew at almost 5% per annum between 2008-2012. It is expected that aseptic packaging use will grow in all markets between 2012-2016. Aseptic Packaging Use By Product (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 White Milk 312 335 340 369 2.1 2.1 Other Dairy Products 768 856 885 989 3.6 2.8 Beverages 9,100 9,490 9,447 10,347 0.9 2.3 Food Products 863 1,030 1,039 1,186 4.8 3.4 TOTAL 11,044 11,712 11,712 12,892 1.5 2.4
5. Mexico White Milk B.1 Market Size and Trends The market for white milk stood at just under 5.8 billion litres in 2011. Growth decelerated as a result of the recession, particularly for chilled milk and other chilled dairy products, which was somewhat offset by more resilient ambient milk and powdered milks. Growth of the white milk market is recovering, with growth expected to accelerate in the next five years to around 1.3% yearly growth to 2016, compared with just 0.7% up to 2011. The market has shifted towards UHT milk which nowadays dominates sales. In a competitive and concentrated market led by three main companies, innovation has been key to spur growth and it is now common to see a wide range of 'specialty' milks for all ages and health concerns. The share of specialty milks is growing and they are expected to continue contributing to the category s growth. ESL milk is non-existent at the moment, with a low likelihood of coming into the market in the future. Consumption of White Milk (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 Short life Chilled: 1,873 1,924 1,988 2,108 1.5 1.5 Pasteurised 1,873 1,924 1,988 2,108 1.5 1.5 ESL 0 0 0 0 - - Long life Ambient: 3,802 3,871 3,981 4,167 1.2 1.1 UHT 3,738 3,805 3,914 4,100 1.2 1.2 Sterilized 65 66 68 67 1.2-0.4 TOTAL WHITE MILK 5,675 5,795 5,969 6,275 1.3 1.3 Source: Zenith International/Warrick Research B.2 Suppliers Grupo Lala is the largest supplier of milk in the country with an estimated share of around 35%, followed by Alpura with a share of 23%. Together, both companies account for 58% of the market. The rest of the market is taken up by regional dairy companies, Nestlé and government-owned Liconsa which offers milk at subsidised prices. Grupo Lala has 8 plants across Mexico and over 110 distribution centres, allowing it to have easy access to urban areas. The company has a wide portfolio of products, ranging from cheese, cream, dairy desserts, white and flavoured milk juices and juice drinks. In milk, Lala has one of the widest pack formats, which include 1 litre cartons for UHT milk, 1, 1.8 and 3.7 litre plastic bottles and more recently a 1 litre plastic pouch for pasteurised milk. Alpura meanwhile has focused on extending its range of UHT white milks by launching enriched milks targeted at different age groups and with different nutritional needs or health concerns. Key examples
include milk for women, men, adults over 40, without cholesterol and for general health with added fibre, folic acid and vitamins. The company also has a range of traditional flavoured milks and others with natural fruit for a more refreshing drink as well as a Kids range with added nutrients to fulfil the needs of young children. The company was the pioneer of UHT milk, introducing the first such milk in the country in 1973 under the name Alpura 2000. Alpura also has extensive reach across the country thanks to its nearly 30 distribution centres and 64 distributors which together are present in all but a few states. Nestlé is the third largest player with a share of around 11%; however this is mostly due to its powdered milks, Svelty and Nido. Svelty is also sold as UHT milk and is targeted at health conscious adults, mostly female, and has recently added a variant called Total Digest which is skimmed, lactose-free and with prebiotic fibre to aid digestive problems. Other important, yet smaller suppliers include Lechera Guadalajara with its Sello Rojo brand which is mostly present in the state of Jalisco and surrounding areas. Liconsa is a government-owned organisation which buys milk from small and medium sized producers across the country and sells it to low income families at a discount. Liconsa has an estimated share of 6% of the fluid milk market. Unlike the other leading players, Liconsa has traditionally sold milk in both cartons and plastic pouches. B.3 UHT Milk and Use of Aseptic Packaging In UHT white milk, 1 litre carton is the dominant pack format with just under 98% of all products sold in 2011. This is reflected on all producers offering white milk in this format. Its dominance has been slightly eroded in recent years as suppliers have expanded the packaging materials and sizes used. Nevertheless, it is still very common for households to buy cases of 12 1 litre cartons, which offers them significant savings. Sales of 1 litre cartons is expected to reach 3.8 billion litres in 2012, registering compound annual growth rates of 1% between 2008 and 2012. Meanwhile, smaller cartons, usually in sizes of 250ml, have registered much higher growth, seeing sales increase annually by 6% during the same period. This has been thanks to the promotion of single-serve milks as the perfect addition to a healthy lunch box or for consumption on the go, both for children and adults. The use of plastic pouches for UHT milk has disappeared, with pouches being used for pasteurised milk. The largest user of this format is Liconsa, with Grupo Lala having introduced a similar 1 litre format also for pasteurised white milk and promoting it as more environmentally friendly pack. In unit terms, the number of UHT packages is very similar to volume due to the widespread presence of 1 litre cartons. Total unit numbers reached 4 billion in 2011, with 0.2 billion units added by 2012. Units are set to increase in line with demand for 1 litre cartons, with the more dynamic segments of small cartons and HDPE bottles fuelling growth. The first HDPE bottle for UHT milk was launched in 2011 by Grupo Lala in the form of a 250ml bottle for out-of-home consumption. If this format is successful, it could signify the beginning of a shift from small cartons in white milk and in flavoured milk to HDPE bottles.
UHT White Milk Aseptic Packaging Use By Pack Type/Size (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 3,663 3,710 3,810 3,985 1.0 1.1 Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml) 64 76 80 86 6.0 1.8 HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml) 0 19 23 29-5.1 PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - PET Bottles (up to 499ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pouches (up to 499ml) 11 0 0 0-100.0 - Plastic pots (over 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pots (under 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Bag in Box 0 0 0 0 - - Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick 0 0 0 0 - - TOTAL 3,738 3,805 3,914 4,100 1.2 1.2 Source: Zenith International/Warrick Research Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 320
6 Poland Beverages D.1 Market Size and Trends There have been big changes in the Polish beverage market in the past 4 years, since the start of the economic recession. Sales of juices and nectars have fallen by about 4% in the past 3 years. Short life products in chilled distribution have increased market share. Sales of juice drinks have also fallen slightly. The trend has been caused by higher prices and a move towards lower calorie products. Sales of RTD tea and energy drinks have continued to increase. The juice sales decline in 2012 appears to be particularly strong with sales nearly 10% lower in the first few months, and a reversal of current trends is not anticipated. The juice market is mature, with a switch to more lower cost supermarket label products perhaps the most likely way to stabilise sales. Sales of isotonic drinks, energy drinks and tea are expected to continue to grow. Beverage Consumption (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 RTD Tea & Coffee 189 218 227 262 4.7 3.6 Juice and Nectars 768 735 698 640-2.4-2.1 Juice Drinks 1,043 1,020 1,010 1,064-0.8 1.3 Sports & Energy 141 192 204 274 9.7 7.7 Total Beverages 2,141 2,165 2,139 2,240 0.0 1.2 Short Life 21 29 32 40 11.1 5.7 Long Life 2,120 2,136 2,107 2,200-0.2 1.1 Source: Zenith International/Warrick Research D.2 Suppliers Sokpol is the largest supplier of retailer own label fruit juices. The largest suppliers of branded products are Maspex and Agros Nova. In the juice drinks sector, Coca Cola, Pepsi Cola and Hoop are the largest producers. For isotonic drinks, Coca Cola (Powerade and Isostar) is the market leader. Oshee is the second largest supplier, having achieved nearly 30% market share within 3 years of entering the market. In energy drinks, Tiger and Red Bull are the leading brands. D.3 Processing and Packaging of Ambient Products Juices and nectars are about 70% in cartons. About 15% of products are in glass, and most of the remainder in PET bottles. Traditionally, most juice drinks were in plastic bottles, but cartons steadily gained market share and now have around 57% of the market, with plastic bottles having around 36% and a small quantity is available in glass. Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 321
Ready to drink tea is mainly in PET bottles (the most popular sizes 1 litre and 0.5 litre), with some use of cartons. Energy and sports drinks are also mainly in PET bottles, with some use of cans (especially Red Bull). Ambient Packaging Use By Pack Type/Size (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 Long Life Products 2,120 2,136 2,107 2,200-0.2 1.1 Aseptic 1,283 1,318 1,296 1,366 0.3 1.3 Hot Filled 471 472 471 483 0.0 0.7 Preservatives 366 346 341 350-1.8 0.7 Ambient Packaging use Total 2,120 2,136 2,107 2,200-0.2 1.1 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 967 977 957 990-0.3 0.9 Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml) 168 171 167 184-0.2 2.5 HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - HDPE Bottles (up to 499ml) 31 31 30 11-0.8-23.0 PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 647 645 643 703-0.2 2.3 PET Bottles (up to 499ml) 102 99 100 98-0.6-0.4 Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pouches (up to 499ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pots (over 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pots (under 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Bag in Box 0 0 0 0 - - Others - glass, cans, aerosols, stick 205 214 211 214 0.8 0.3 Source: Zenith International/Warrick Research D.4 Use of Aseptic Packaging Cartons About 1 billion litres of beverages were aseptically filled in cartons in 2011. This is mainly 1 litre size, but with a growing use of portion packs. Plastic Bottles In the period 2005-2009 several companies installed aseptic fillers for PET bottles. The aim was to remove preservatives from many juice drink products, and to use for pure juices. Companies with aseptic filling lines for PET bottles include Zbyszko, Maspex, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Nestlé Waters, Ustronianka, Sokpol. Market developments in the past 3 years have meant that utilisation of these lines has been lower than expected, and there has been little new investment in the past 2 years. A high proportion of low cost juice drinks still use preservatives. Little new investment in aseptic bottle fillers is expected in the next 2 years, and is only likely if the economic situation improves sharply. Market trends towards lower cost products, and lower calorie products, and healthier products do not favour juice drinks in PET bottles. Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 322
POLAND Aseptic Packaging Use By Pack Type/Size (Million Litres) 2008-2016 CAGR% CAGR% Million litres 2008 2011 2012 2016 08/12 12/16 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 967 977 957 990-0.3 0.9 Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml) 168 171 167 184-0.2 2.5 HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - HDPE Bottles (up to 499ml) 0 0 0 0 - - PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) 130 150 152 172 4.1 3.0 PET Bottles (up to 499ml) 18 20 20 20 3.1 0.3 Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pouches (up to 499ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pots (over 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Plastic pots (under 50ml) 0 0 0 0 - - Bag in Box 0 0 0 0 - - Others - glass, cans, aerosols, stick 0 0 0 0 - - TOTAL 1,283 1,318 1,296 1,366 0.3 1.3 Source: Zenith International/Warrick Research Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 323
7 Australia Other Dairy Products C.3 Flavoured Milk Australia has high per capita consumption of flavoured milk. Total sales were nearly 230 million litres in 2011, an increase of around 5% over 2010. Fresh products have about 90% market share, UHT ambient products about 10% - equating to approximately 25 million litres per annum - mostly sold through small outlets. Ambient UHT products are in cartons; production in HDPE bottles ceased when National Foods shut their line in 2011. UHT products are produced by Murray Goulburn and Harvey Fresh. The main carton sizes are 375-500ml, with some use of 1 litre. In Australia, flavoured milk is in larger packs than in many other markets. Most fresh products are in plastic bottles with Farmer s Union Iced Coffee the most popular flavoured milk brand. C.4 Cream Retail sales of dairy cream were some 65 million litres in 2011, having grown in the past 3 years; UHT cream accounts for less than 5% of the market, with all products coming in cartons. There are also sales to the food service market. Harvey Fresh are a producer of UHT cream. C.5 Soya Milk and Rice Milk The market for soya milk and rice milk was around 70 million litres in 2011, growing at 10% per annum. About 75% is UHT long life product and the remaining 25% is chilled short life product. Leading soya brands include Sanitarium and Vita Soy. There is also a market for meal replacement drinks such as the Nestlé protein drink Sustain. Most UHT products are packed in cartons - 1 litre for soya milk, 250-500ml for other products. Producers of UHT soya milk include Vita Soy and Pure Harvest. There are also imports from Asia. C.6 Desserts and Yogurts The Australian market for yogurts stood at around.150 million litres in 2011. Dessert sales were 45 million litres, of which over 50% is custard. All yogurts are pasteurised short life distributed in chilled chain. Desserts and custards are aseptically filled in cartons by Murray Goulburn and Classic Foods; UHT products packed in plastic pots are imported. There is also production of UHT custard aseptically packed in 10 litre bag in box for the foodservice sector. Total sales of aseptically filled UHT products were 8 million litres in 2011. Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 324
Zenith International Ltd and Warrick Research Ltd 2012 325