SOUTH AFRICAN BREAKFAST CEREALS INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE REPORT COMPILED: AUGUST 2018
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REPORT OVERVIEW The South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Landscape Report (127 pages) provides a dynamic synthesis of industry research, examining the local and global Breakfast Cereals Industry (Including Gluten-free cereals and cereal bars) from a uniquely holistic perspective, with detailed insights into the entire value chain from manufacturing to retailing, market size trends, industry trends, industry drivers & challenges, competitor and pricing analysis. SOME KEY QUESTIONS THE REPORT WILL HELP YOU TO ANSWER: For the Global Breakfast Cereals Industry Section: What are the current market dynamics (market environment, production, key regional markets) of the Global Breakfast Cereals industry? What are the Global Breakfast Cereals industry trends, drivers, and challenges? For the South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Section: What are the current market dynamics (market environment, production and trade, market size, volume) of the SA Breakfast Cereals and Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals industry? Who are the key manufacturing players in the SA Breakfast Cereals and Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals industry? What are the South African industry trends, drivers, and challenges? For the South African Retail and Pricing Analysis Section: Who are the key retail players (retail, independent, and online retail outlets) in the SA Breakfast Cereals and Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals industry? What are the prices of frequently purchased Breakfast Cereals, Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals, and Breakfast Cereal Bar brands across SA retail outlets? 5
SCREENSHOTS FROM REPORT 127 page report filled with detailed charts, graphs, tables and insights 6
SAMPLE FROM REPORT: GLOBAL KEY MARKETS OVERVIEW Breakfast Cereals found its origin in North America and together with Europe, the two regions held the majority (65%) of the total Breakfast Cereal market in 2017. Porridge was originally seen as the breakfast for the poor. The introduction of Breakfast Cereals (instead of meaty breakfasts) by Dr. John Harvey Kellogg led to the increasing popularity of cereals. Sugary Breakfast Cereals were initially targeted at children and animated characters were used to increase desirability of the product. Since the start of the 1960 s, the worldwide increasing importance of health created obstacles for the Breakfast Cereals industry. The protein, sugar, fat and fiber content of Breakfast Cereal products became a critical factor to consumers. Furthermore, as consumers in different parts of the world started to lead faster lives during the 1970 s, they opted for easier and more convenient food alternatives. The global market for Breakfast Cereals is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. North America and Europe might soon reach saturation in terms of the Breakfast Cereals market; however, an opportunity to enter exists for the Asia-Pacific region. As illustrated in the below graph, the origin country of Breakfast Cereals, North America, continued to dominate in terms of retail sales which amounted to US$11.6 billion (41% of worldwide retail sales) in 2017. Western Europe was the second strongest competitor in the Breakfast Cereals industry (at US$6.5 billion), followed by the Asia- Pacific region (at US$3 billion). Middle East and Africa BREAKFAST CEREAL RETAIL SALES BY REGION: 2017 (IN US$ BILLION) World (TOT) North America Western Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Eastern Europe Australasia South Africa 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.3 3.0 2.5 6.5 11.6 28.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: NorthAmerica&Europe; History; Gluten; Segments; Euromonitor Image Source: Bloomberg; Snopes 7
SAMPLE FROM REPORT: BREAKFAST CEREALS DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS As illustrated in the graph below, 83.2% of all Breakfast Cereals were distributed through Modern Grocery Retailers in 2017, while 8.0% was distributed through Traditional Grocery Retailers. Furthermore, 7.3% of Breakfast Cereals was distributed through Mixed Retailers and 1.5% through Internet Retailing. The table below illustrates the distribution of Breakfast Cereals according to outlet types for 2012 and 2017. In 2017, 69.1% of Breakfast Cereals was distributed via Supermarkets (a decrease from 69.7% in 2012). Interestingly, the distribution of Breakfast Cereals via Mixed Retailers increased from 7.0% in 2012 to 7.3% in 2017. 8.0% Source: Euromonitor CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION FOR BREAKFAST CEREAL PRODUCTS: 2017 7.3% 1.5% 83.2% Modern Grocery Retailers Traditional Grocery Retailers Mixed Retailers Internet Retailing CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION (2012 AND 2017) BY OUTLET TYPE Revenue Share (%) (2012 and 2017) Image Source: The NP; Simple Icon; The NP 1; Pixabay Revenue Share (in ZAR million) (2012 and 2017) Store-Based Retailing 100.0% 98.5% 4,535.4 7,217.1 Grocery Retailers 93.0% 91.2% 4,217.9 6,679.3 Modern Grocery Retailers 85.0% 83.2% 3,855.1 6,093.2 Convenience Stores 7.0% 6.0% 317.5 439.5 Discounters 0.6% 0.7% 24.9 51.3 Forecourt Retailers 2.0% 2.0% 90.7 146.5 Hypermarkets 5.8% 5.4% 263.1 392.7 Supermarkets 69.7% 69.1% 3,158.9 5,063.1 Traditional Grocery Retailers 8.0% 8.0% 362.8 586.1 Independent Small Grocers 8.0% 8.0% 362.8 586.1 Mixed Retailers 7.0% 7.3% 317.5 537.8 Non-Store Retailing - 1.5% - 109.9 Internet Retailing - 1.5% - 109.9 8
SAMPLE FROM REPORT: SA INDUSTRY TRENDS Exotic and Unique Flavours The South African Breakfast Cereals market offers consumers a wide range of product options. As a result, the industry is quite competitive, and manufacturers need to be innovative through product differentiation to attract consumers to purchase their products. Furthermore, in terms of Hot Cereal products, Jungle Oats offers caramel, strawberry and banana toffee flavours for their Oatso Easy product. They also offer a Oats-So-Easy Cup in orange and chocolate and blueberry forest fruit flavours. Many manufacturers are introducing exotic and unique flavours to their Breakfast Cereal ranges in order to keep consumers interested. Woolworths, for example, offers a Baked Crunchy Citrus Granola, a Gluten-Free Raw Goji Berry and Beetroot Granola, a Cranberry and Coconut Macaroon Muesli, and many other unique Breakfast Cereal options. Woolworths has also introduced a number of unique snack bars that serve consumers need for on-the-go convenience, such as their Raw Chocolate Brownie Date Bar and their Fig and Pistachio Snack Bar. OTEES, which is manufactured by Bokomo, also has a number of unique and exotic flavours in their Breakfast Cereal range, such as the mixed berry, cream soda and bubblegum flavours. Source: Woolworths1; Woolworths2; OTEES; Makro Image Source: Fruits; Taste; Icon 9
SAMPLE FROM REPORT: TIGER BRANDS: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE As of 30 September 2017, Tiger Brands operating income increased by 11% to R4.6 billion in 2017 (compared to R4.2 billion in September 2016). Tiger Brands has prominent market shares in a broad range of categories in South Africa. It has been growing for almost a century through acquisitions and by developing its brands. The Grains division indicated a strong increase in revenue and operating income. The former increased by 5%, whereas the operating income for the division increased by 18% to R2.4 billion for the year ended 30 September 2017. TIGER BRANDS CASH GENERATED FROM OPERATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 (IN ZAR BILLION) Other Grains, which includes Tiger Brands Breakfast Cereals, reported an increase in revenue of 6% to R3.8 billion. Similarly, operating income also increased by 24% to R502 million. These increases were as a result of the strong rand as well as improvements in procurement strategies. The adjacent graph shows that, for the year ended 30 September 2017, Tiger Brands cash generated from operations increased from R4.2 billion in 2016 to R6.1 billion in 2017. 7 6 5 4 3 2 4.2 6.1 1 0 FY 2016 FY 2017 Source: Tiger Brand s Integrated Annual Report 2017 Image Source: Tiger Brands; IconScout; ShareIcon; Medical News Today 10
SAMPLE FROM REPORT: BREAKFAST CEREALS PRICING ANALYSIS BRAND AND SIZE Ace Instant Porridge 1kg R18.99 N/A N/A R18.19 R16.15 R18.99 R13.99 R18.99 N/A N/A All Bran Flakes 500g R39.99 N/A N/A R41.99 R34.44 R39.33 N/A R41.99 N/A R37.99 All Bran Hi-Fibre 375g R39.99 N/A R29.95 R37.39 R32.25 R39.99 R39.99 R38.99 N/A R38.99 All Bran Instant Porridge 500g R38.99 N/A N/A R34.29 R30.25 R38.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A Alpen Muesli 450g R39.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A R40.99 N/A N/A Alpen Nutrific 225g R16.99 N/A N/A R16.19 R14.65 R17.49 R16.99 R15.99 N/A N/A Bar-One Cereal 575g R49.99 N/A N/A R55.49 R46.42 R57.99 R39.99 (365g) R55.49 N/A N/A This pricing analysis was conducted at retail stores and supermarkets during w/c 20 August 2018 11
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary (3 pages): 1.1 Global Industry Snapshot 1.2 South African Industry Snapshot 1.3 Industry Drivers & Restraints 2. Global Breakfast Cereals Industry (13 pages): 2.1 Global Breakfast Cereals Industry Overview (13 pages) 2.1 Global Industry Overview 2.2 Global Market Environment 2.3 Global Industry Production: BREAKFAST CEREAL WORLD PRODUCTION: 2014-2018* (IN BILLION TONNES); BREAKFAST CEREAL WORLD PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: 2017 ESTIMATE (IN MILLION TONNES) (Graphs) 2.4 Global Key Markets: Regional Overview: BREAKFAST CEREAL RETAIL SALES BY REGION: 2017 (IN US$ BILLION) (Graph) 2.5 Global Key Markets: North America 2.6 Global Key Markets: Europe 2.7 Global Key Markets: Asia-Pacific: BREAKFAST CEREAL RETAIL SALES FOR CHINA: 2012-2021 (IN US$ MILLION) (Graph) 2.8 Global Industry Trends 2.9 Global Industry Drivers 2.10 Global Industry Challenges 12
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. South African Breakfast Cereals Industry (65 pages): 3.1 South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Overview (23 pages) 3.1.1 South African Industry Overview 3.1.2 South African Market Environment 3.1.3 South African Production and Trade: SA CEREAL PRODUCTION (IN 000 TONNES) (Table) 3.1.4 South African Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals 3.1.5 South African Industry Market: South African Breakfast Cereals Market Definitions 3.1.6 South African Industry Market: Distribution Definitions 3.1.7 South African Industry Market Size: Breakfast Cereal Market (2012-2017): VALUE OF BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET: 2012-2017 (IN ZAR MILLION); SA BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET CAGR AND TOTAL GROWTH (IN PERCENTAGE) (Graph and Table) 3.1.8 South African Industry Market Size: Breakfast Cereals Market (2012-2017: By Category): VALUE OF SA BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET BY CATEGORY: 2012-2017 (IN ZAR MILLION) (Graph) 3.1.9 South African Industry Market Size: Breakfast Cereals Market (Forecast: 2018-2022*): VALUE OF SA BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET: 2017 & 2022* (IN ZAR MILLION); SA BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET VALUE FORECAST BY CATEGORY (IN ZAR MILLION) (Graph and Table) 3.1.10 South African Industry Market Size: Breakfast Cereals Market Volumes (2012-2022*): RETAIL VOLUME OF SA BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET 2012-2022* (Table) 3.1.11 South African Industry Market Size: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals Market (2012-2017): VALUE SALES OF GLUTEN-FREE BREAKFAST CEREALS (2012-2017) (IN ZAR MILLION); VOLUME SALES OF GLUTEN-FREE BREAKFAST CEREALS (2012-2017) (IN TONNES) (Graphs) 3.1.12 South African Market Environment: Top Breakfast Cereal Companies: TOP BREAKFAST CEREAL COMPANIES IN SOUTH AFRICA: 2017 (REVENUE SHARE IN ZAR MILLION); TOP BREAKFAST CEREAL COMPANIES: 2012 VS 2017 (REVENUE SHARE IN PERCENTAGE AND ZAR MILLION) (Graph and Table) 13
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Continued (65 pages): 3.1 South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Overview Continued (23 pages) 3.1.13 South African Market Environment: Top Breakfast Cereal Companies (Per Category): TOP 1 BREAKFAST CEREAL COMPANIES (PER CATEGORY) IN 2017 (MARKET SHARE IN PERCENTAGE AND ZAR MILLION) (Table) 3.1.14 South African Market Environment: Top Breakfast Cereal Brands: TOP 10 BREAKFAST CEREAL BRANDS IN SOUTH AFRICA: 2017 (REVENUE SHARE IN ZAR MILLION); TOP 10 BREAKFAST CEREAL BRANDS: 2012 VS 2017 (REVENUE SHARE IN PERCENTAGE AND ZAR MILLION) (Graph and Table) 3.1.15 South African Market Environment: Top Breakfast Cereal Brands (Per Category): TOP 3 BREAKFAST CEREAL BRANDS (PER CATEGORY) IN 2017 (REVENUE SHARE IN PERCENTAGE AND ZAR MILLION) (Table) 3.1.16 South African Market Environment: Breakfast Cereals Distribution Channels: CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION FOR BREAKFAST CEREAL PRODUCTS: 2017; CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION (2012 AND 2017) BY OUTLET TYPE (REVENUE SHARE IN PERCENTAGE AND ZAR MILLION) (Graph and Table) 3.1.17 South African Industry Trends 3.1.18 South African Industry Drivers 3.1.19 South African Industry Challenges 14
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Continued (64 pages): 3.2 South African Breakfast Cereals Manufacturing (42 pages) 3.2.1 South African Breakfast Cereals Manufacturing Overview (26 pages) 3.2.1.1 FUTURELIFE: Overview 3.2.1.2 FUTURELIFE: Breakfast Cereal & Cereal Bar Brands 3.2.1.3 Health Connection Wholefoods: Overview 3.2.1.4 Health Connection Wholefoods: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.5 Kellogg s: Overview 3.2.1.6 Kellogg s: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.7 Kellogg s: Cereal Bar Brands 3.2.1.8 Nestlé: Overview 3.2.1.9 Nestlé: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.10 NutriStart: Overview 3.2.1.11 NutriStart: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.12 Pioneer Foods: Overview: PIONEER FOODS REVENUE BY SEGMENT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH 2018 (IN ZAR BILLION) (Graph) 3.2.1.13 Pioneer Foods: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.14 Premier FMCG: Overview 3.2.1.15 Premier FMCG: Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.2.1.16 Tiger Brands: Overview: TIGER BRANDS CASH GENERATED FROM OPERATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 (IN ZAR BILLION) (Graph) 3.2.1.17 Tiger Brands: Breakfast Cereal & Energy Bar Brands 3.2.1.18 South African Breakfast Cereal Manufacturers: Other 15
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3. South African Breakfast Cereals Industry Continued (64 pages): 3.2 South African Breakfast Cereals Manufacturing Continued (42 pages) 3.2.2 South African Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals Manufacturing Overview (16 pages) 3.3.2.1 Doves Farm: Overview 3.3.2.2 Doves Farm: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal & Oat Bar Brands 3.3.2.3 Fresh Earth: Overview 3.3.2.4 Fresh Earth: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.5 Glutagon: Overview 3.3.2.6 Glutagon: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.7 Health Connection Wholefoods: Overview & Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.8 Nairn s: Overview & Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.9 Nature s Choice: Overview 3.3.2.10 Nature s Choice: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal & Snack Bar Brands 3.3.2.11 Nature s Path: Overview & Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.12 Orgran: Overview & Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 3.3.2.13 Rude Health: Overview 3.3.2.14 Rude Health: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal & Snack Bar Brands 3.3.2.15 Wholesome Earth: Overview 3.3.2.16 Wholesome Earth: Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereal Brands 16
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. South African Breakfast Cereals Retail Analysis (25 pages): 4.1 South African Breakfast Cereals Retail Overview (9 pages) 4.1.1 South African Retail Overview 4.1.2 Checkers: Overview 4.1.3 Clicks: Overview: CLICKS GROUP REVENUE BY DIVISION FOR SIX MONTHS ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2018 (IN ZAR BILLION) (Graph) 4.1.4 Dis-Chem: Overview: DIS-CHEM CATEGORY MARKET SHARE: 2018 (IN PERCENTAGE) (Graph) 4.1.5 Massmart: Overview: MASSMART DIVISIONAL SALES OPERATIONAL REVIEW FOR 53 WEEKS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2017 (IN ZAR BILLION) (Graph) 4.1.6 Pick n Pay: Overview: PICK N PAY TOTAL REVENUE FOR YEAR ENDED 25 FEBRUARY 2018 (IN ZAR BILLION) (2017 VS 2018) (Graph) 4.1.7 Shoprite: Overview: TOTAL TURNOVER FOR 26 WEEKS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2017 (IN ZAR BILLION) (2016 VS 2017) (Graph) 4.1.8 Spar: Overview: SPAR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PER GEOGRAPHICAL SEGMENT: 2017 (IN ZAR MILLION) (Graph) 4.1.9 Woolworths: Overview: WOOLWORTHS TOTAL REVENUE CONTRIBUTION BY SEGMENT: 2017 (IN ZAR BILLION) (Graph) 4.2 South African Online Retailers (1 pages) 4.2.1 South African Independent and Online Retail Outlets: Other 17
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. South African Breakfast Cereals Retail Analysis Continued (25 pages): 4.3 South African Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis (15 pages) 4.3.1 Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis (8 pages) 4.3.1.1 Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis Ace Instant Porridge; All Bran Flakes; All Bran Hi-Fibre; All Bran Instant Porridge; Alpen Muesli; Alpen Nutrific; Bar-One Cereal; Bokomo Bran Flakes; Bokomo Corn Flakes; Bokomo Fibre Plus; Bokomo Maltabella; Bokomo Nature s Source; Bokomo OATS; Cheerios; Coco Pops Choc O s; Coco Pops Crunchers; Coco Pops Original; Corn Flakes; FUTURELIFE Bran Flakes with Probiotics; FUTURELIFE Crunch; FUTURELIFE Smart Food; FUTURELIFE Smart Oats; Froot Loops; Frosties; Health Connection Cacao Chia Oats; Health Connection Cacao Quinoa Cereal; Health Connection Maca Chia Oats; Iwisa; Jungle Instant Oats; Jungle Large Tiger Flakes; Jungle Muesli; Jungle Oat Brand; Jungle Oats Crunchalots; Jungle Oats-So-Easy Cup; Jungle Oatso Easy; Jungle Oats Ultra; Jungle Oats Original; Kellogg s Granola Original; King Korn Mabele Fine Meal; MILO Energy Cereal; MONATI Super Mabela; Morvite; NutriStart Active in a Cup; Nyala; OTEES; ProNutro Wheat Free; ProNutro Whole Wheat; Rice Krispies; Special K Classic; Strawberry Pops; Thrive; Tia s Muesli; Vital Health Muesli; WEET-BIX; WEET-BIX Bites; White Star Super Maize Meal Comparative pricing at Checkers, Clicks, Dis-Chem, Game, Makro, Pick n Pay, Shoprite, Spar, Wellness Warehouse, Woolworths 4.3.2 Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis (5 pages) 4.3.2.1 Gluten-Free Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis Doves Farm Cereal Flakes; Doves Farm Chocolate Stars; Doves Farm Corn Flakes; Doves Farm Fibre Flakes; Earth Puffed Millet; Fresh Earth Grinola (Honey Flavour); Glutagon Cocoa Rice; Glutagon Corn Flakes; Glutagon Crispy Rice; Glutagon Rice & Corn; Health Connection Flax and Coconut Porridge; Health Connection Seed and Nut Muesli; Nairn s Scottish Porridge Oats; Nature s Choice Gluten-Free Luxury Granola; Nature s Choice Gluten-Free Rolled Oats; Nature s Choice Super Goji Granola; Nature s Path Gluten-Free Crunchy Maple Surprise; Nature s Path Gluten-Free Crispy Rice; Nature s Path Corn Flakes (Fruit Juice Sweetened); Orgran Itsy Bitsy Cocoa O s; Rude Health Coconut and Seed Muesli; Rude Health Honey Puffed Oats Cereal; Wholesome Earth Chocolate Loops; Wholesome Earth Corn Flakes; Wholesome Earth Fruit Loops; Wholesome Earth Honey Rings; Wholesome Earth Quick Cooking Oats; Wholesome Earth Rolled Oats; Wholesome Earth Steel Cut Oats Comparative pricing at Clicks, Dis-Chem, Faithful to Nature, Fresh Earth, Wellness Warehouse 18
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. South African Breakfast Cereals Retail Analysis Continued (25 pages): 4.3 South African Breakfast Cereals Pricing Analysis Continued (15 pages) 4.3.3 Breakfast Cereal Bars Pricing Analysis (2 pages) 4.3.3.1 Breakfast Cereal Bars Pricing Analysis Coco Pops Cereal Bar; Doves Farm Oat Bar; FUTURELIFE Protein Crunch; FUTURELIFE High Energy; FUTURELIFE High Protein; FUTURELIFE High Protein Lite; Jungle Oats Bar; Kellogg s Cereal Bar; OTEES Bar; ProNutro Power Bar; ProNutro Sport Bar; Rice Krispies Cereal Bar; Rude Health Gluten-Free Snack Bar; Special K Cereal Bar Comparative pricing at Checkers, Clicks, Dis-Chem, Game, Makro, Pick n Pay, Shoprite, Spar, Wellness Warehouse, Woolworths 19
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