REPORT FARMER S. market trends

Transcription

1 FARMER S REPORT market trends This notice is subject to change. Information printed is based on last received market data. Subject to change without notification US Foods. All rights reserved.

2 BEEF Live cattle prices moved up $1.00 last week after consecutive weeks of declining prices. These moves upward suggest prices will not continue to fall in the near term. Production levels continue to be cut from year ago levels which will prevent prices from falling to historical norms. Rounds Insides: The market did top out which should start to slowly yield some declines in the next few weeks, with further declines into early March. Flats: Same as the inside round. LOINS Strips: The market has been a little more unpredictable the last several weeks. We will likely continue this up one week and down another for the short term with a more solid move on the upside into mid March and beyond. Top Butts: Overall, the projections are for a steady market for the short term. Traditionally, this is the lowest point in the market and it has a tendency to move up in March and beyond. thin meats & grinds Flap Meat: The market has possible slight downside in the next few weeks as the market adjusts to the lower live prices from the last few weeks, but should follow with a seasonal pattern up into early spring. Briskets: The market appears to be leveling with reaching the peak for the short term. We could see a slight rebound as we get into early spring and a higher demand period. Grinds: We are seeing the market decline from the record high levels, and will likely see a little more stability until we get into early spring and a higher demand period. Skirt Meat: Outside skirts are steady for the current time period; however we should see overall strength for the long term as we go into the next several weeks. Ball Tips: The market has a more steady tone showing up than early year projections. This cut, as well as many of the thin cuts, can be affected quickly by fluctuating production levels which have continued to be under performing. Tenderloins: Choice as well as select /ungraded tenders are expected to show some downside as we get into early March. ribs RibEyes: This market has been under value compared to live cattle prices and some of the end cuts. In the short term, packers are providing some discounts to keep production moving but we expect the long term view is that demand will pick up and prices will move up further. Chucks Chuck Rolls: The market has peaked and will start to erode with declining prices towards the end of the month. 2

3 pork Base hog prices continue to move higher this week as animal availability over the upcoming weeks remains a concern. Weekend storms across portions of the Midwest could threaten hog movement this week, but not to the magnitude the industry experienced last week. Additionally, speculation on the severity of the PED virus and its impact on spring and summer hog supplies, and an anticipated decline in overall beef supplies, is expected to result in increasing live hog prices for spring and summer. Hog weights remain about 3% above year ago levels, but are expected to begin gradually moving lower during March. Producers are expected to get current with marketing their hogs as we approach late March. Overall pork prices are steady to higher with price support from the rib, butts and ham markets. Markets could remain volatile this week due to weather related disruptions in supply, as uncertainty could support higher prices. Loins The markets for bone in and boneless loins traded steady to higher last week on tighter than expected supplies. Bone-in loins and boneless loins are trending higher this week due to improved demand. Bone in loins are expected to trade steady to higher through this week then trade steady to lower. Similarly boneless loins are expected to trade steady to higher through early March as buyers compensate for tighter beef supplies. Boneless prices are expected to gradually move lower during March as Lent approaches. tenders Pork tenders traded steady to slightly higher on stronger retail demand. Prices are expected to trade steady to higher, then hold steady mid March. Butts Prices for bone in and boneless pork butts moved higher on continued strong retail, foodservice and export demand and tighter than anticipated supplies. Prices are expected to trade steady to slightly higher through early March, then move slightly lower with the onset of Lent. Ribs Spare RibS: Spare rib prices traded slightly higher on improved demand. Prices are expected to gradually move higher due to increased demand for freezer programs. Supply constraints could support higher prices during Q1. Back Ribs: Back ribs continued to trade higher on improved demand from foodservice. Prices are expected to continue trending higher through mid March. Bellies/Bacon Bacon/belly prices continued higher on strong seasonal demand. Processors continue to move product to the freezer in anticipation of tight supplies during summer months. Belly prices are expected to continue trending higher through early March, and then hold steady in late March due to the onset of the Lenten season. Supply constraints could support higher EB bacon prices through May. Hams Ham prices continued higher on strong domestic and export demand and weather related supply disruptions. Prices are expected to trend higher through mid March, then trade steady to slightly lower. This is the typical seasonal move for the Easter ham season. Trim The following market dynamics will impact finished goods pricing during March. Pork trimmings continue trending higher on increased product demand from processors. Heavier hog weights will be pressure fat trim markets while limited availability of sows will support higher prices for lean pork trim. Trimmings prices are expected to trend higher through Q2. Picnics Pork picnics traded higher last week on strong demand. Picnics are expected to trade steady to higher during March. Demand for exports and unanticipated supply constraints could support higher prices. 3

4 turkey Consistent demand is keeping product moving. Orders are being placed for prompt shipments here at home and into export channels. Supplies are closely balanced to short with inventories, whole birds continue to show value with higher prices projected. Breast meat continues to show steady money, but all signs are in place for a higher market with higher demand. Whole turkeys Market reported steady from the previous week. This market will continue to slightly move upward. boneless raw turkey breasts This market continues to ride along with steady prices, we are still seeing strong projections to higher cost and we move into March. poultry As we canvassed the poultry industry, it became evident that poultry suppliers have, for the most part, caught up to the voided pipelines caused by the storms last week. The poultry suppliers have confirmed production on Saturday for a catch up of birds going into production. The wing market continues to have pressure, with less demand from the consumer. Suppliers are trying to find a balance in price to keep inventories clean. Breast meat and tenderloins are showing signs of strengthening as retailers are placing forward ads and the grilling season is in front of us. Whole/cut-up Chickens Market remained steady from previous week with projections of a steady market over the next few weeks. Boneless Breast Meat Market reported steady from the previous week, this market is being watched closely as the breast market could move upward as we approach March with heavy demand expected. Chicken Tenderloins The market reported slightly down to steady from the previous week, all signs are in place that the tenderloin market will follow the breast market and move upward in March with heavy demand expected. Medium Wings The market slightly moved downward in price this week. Full expectations are that we will continue to see adjustments downward through the month of March. Jumbo Wings Consistent with the medium wings, wings are under pressure and we do expect a downturn to price into March. Boneless Skinless Thigh Meat The market reported steady from previous week. The market is still at risk based on lack of demand both here in the United States and with the export business. commodity grocery Oil The market has rallied since hitting historic lows near the beginning of the month. Last week s USDA report was considered negative for the complex as ending stocks were left unchanged. Exports in the USDA report were raised; however this was offset by higher imports and lower residual use. Despite finally receiving confirmation on China cancellations the market remained bullish. In South America, the harvest is progressing, but there are concerns that rain will slow movement to the port. The next couple of weeks will have a wealth of data coming to determine status of the soybean complex. There is a lot of attention being placed on the Export Inspections report that came out this week. Currently, exports have exceeded expectations, and the US is outpacing current export sales estimates. We expect the market to continue this run as typically the soy oil markets tend to rise during this part of the season. 4

5 dairy Butter Butter prices remain up. Cream supplies are becoming more readily available and butter manufacturers are showing high production rates. Current supplies are still on the tight side. Export demand continues to be strong as the domestic price is still favorable to global prices. Domestic demand is moderate, but expected to begin increasing as we get closer to the Easter season. Shell Eggs Markets are rising quickly, almost near record highs again. Weather is driving strong retail demand as consumers are stocking up on perishable items before storms arrive. Additionally, shell egg supplies are almost 20% lower than 1 year ago. Cheese Cheese markets continue to be at higher than expected levels for this time of year. Exports of cheese during December exceeded expectations with Cheddar exports doubling year ago levels. What is driving export demand is that international prices are at record high levels, which keep the export demand extremely strong. Cheddar production was close to forecast but remained below year ago levels which is also adding support to the cheese market. In addition to exports, weather has impacted overall milk production to be shorter. seafood Shrimp General News: The final import numbers for December are in. In total, the United States imported 50 million less pounds than in 2012 year over year. Last year s total imports were the lowest since As expected, India was the leader with the largest tonnage. Interestingly, Ecuador was behind 2012 not due to disease issues but due to stronger exports to China. Shrimp, Imported (Black Tiger and Whites) The Asian HLSO tiger & Asian White HLSO market was relatively unchanged this week on the mid and smaller sizes ranges. We did see some price firming on sizes 13/15 and higher. The valued added Asian shrimp complex (cooked and P&D) tiger or white saw the market full steady to firm, with prices firming and rising on some of the larger sizes of both tiger and white shrimp. Large sizes remain an issue with lack of supply. Shrimp, Domestic (Whites and Browns) The Domestic brown & white Headless shell on shrimp was mostly unchanged this week. The white shrimp market saw some strengthening on the mid range sizes of 36/40 & 41/50 ct. The pricing spread between brown and white shrimp is very small at this point the exact same on the larger counts (those higher than 26/30 ct). The domestic P&D Tail off market saw strengthening this week with most sizes being affected. The domestic PUD Market saw another round of price increases this week. Sellers continue to raise prices in an attempt to keep up with replacement costs and slow demand on depleting inventories. There is robust buying interest and ongoing supply concerns. 5

6 seafood (Cont d) Shrimp, Latin Central AmerICa (Whites) The Latin American headless shell-on white shrimp market is a mixed market right now. 26/30 and 31/35 count are barely steady to weak with supplies more than adequate for a weak demand. Conversely, 51/60-71/90 are full steady and strengthening. Shrimp, mexican (Whites & Browns) Mexican WILD shrimp market was steady this week. CatFIsh, Domestic & Imported Both the domestic and imported market are flat this week. Domestic Farmers continue to ask for higher prices for the limited supply or production that they have, which will mean higher prices for Lent on both fresh and frozen fillets. Scallops SEA: The domestic Dry and Processed Sea scallop market saw another rise in pricing this week. With very little action on the auction due to weather and inventories starting to show true signs of depletion, it was not surprising to see a jump in the market price. BAY: The Chinese bay scallop market was unchanged last week. Tilapia The Chinese have planted another crop that should be ready to harvest in April the question is will there be enough supply to help drive down cost? In addition, the supply is also affected by how much more of this species is staying in China for domestic consumption. 7/9 will continue to be short. Salmon Chilean Farmed Salmon: Frozen salmon prices are firm. Frozen portions were steady this week but supplies remain light for a moderate demand. The fresh fillet Chilean market saw a weakness as transportation (due to the weather issues across the US) left product in Miami that needed to move quickly. Mahi Mahi Peru has all ready started to re-gear boats for other species and whatever landings that there may be will be in Ecuador for the most part. Mahi prices remain all over the board as some suppliers work through the remainder of last year product and others are shipping this season s new higher priced product. It will be a few more weeks before the market settles down. Whitefish Complex (Cod, Pollock, Haddock) Cod: The market for both Atlantic and Pacific twice frozen product is stable this week. The disparity in inventories on smaller versus larger size fillets continues with a disproportionately high amount of 32+ and very little 8/16. Pollock: The market remains stable on both domestic and imported pollock fillets. Haddock: The haddock catch numbers are in for 2103 the catch was down approximately 33% - in line with the quota cut of 30%. Imports of frozen haddock fillets to the USA fell by 64% - which is a big reason behind the continuously rising prices. With quotas cut again slightly for 2014, we can expect to see these prices stay high for some time to come. Tuna, Yellowfin (CO treated) The frozen tuna market was continues to be quiet this week, with the market remaining stable. The quiet undertone is attributed to the weather across the country, after Christmas bills and not a lot of buying. Snow Crab Canada & Alaska: Canada the Canadian suppliers are still sitting on some 8+ crab and they are looking to move it off. This should keep some pressure on the Alaska market price for 8+. Alaska crab season continues at a brisk pace and all though the quota is not 100% caught, the quota is almost 100% committed. Pricing is at minimum 8-10% higher than last year. What is creating this higher priced market? 1) The Dungeness catch was not good and with the major jump in price on this crab many west coast restaurants and supermarkets have shifted to AK snow crab as a substitute. 2) There is very little 5/8 Canada product available, if at all, and with that season 6-8 weeks away, some contracts are having to bridge with Alaskan. 3) The Alaskan quota was cut. 4) The Japanese came in buying strong as they are no longer able to get any illegal crab from Russia. King Crab The market for red king crab is stable this week on both red and golden crab. Dungeness Crab The market for Dungeness crab is very firm on both clusters and whole cooked. Supplies are very light. The shortage of Dungeness is putting additional pressure on Alaskan snow crab as the areas that traditionally use Dungeness look for a replacement item. LOBster TAIls Warm & Cold water: The market is stable this week with few changes. AmerICan Tails: The market continues very firm with a tight supply situation. 6

7 produce vegetables potatoes Russets: The nationwide russet potato market is very steady with few changes and steady demand. The remaining storage inventories are adequate in every major shipping state. For the Idaho Russets, prices have been steady but the weather changes in the Northeast and Southeast are limiting demand. The quality of Russet Burbank potatoes has been fair, and Russet Norkotah potatoes have continued good quality. Transportation has been good for all areas. Reds: North Dakota is in very good shape with their storage crop in terms of quality and supply. Prices remain the same for now and with some shippers looking to ship comfortably through April. Florida is beginning to hit its stride in shipments but they are still very high priced with good movement at the retail level. As more shippers get going this month and into early March the market will begin to ease off some. White, Yellow and Fingerling: Yellow potatoes have had good supply and quality out of the storage areas in Colorado and North Dakota. New crop Florida should be going in volume in the next month. Storage crop white potatoes have limited availability in the Northeast, but more new crop potatoes are available each day. The fingerling potato market has steady demand and pricing, and growers from the major shipping areas are looking to move increased volume. leaf lettuce Leaf supplies will be good this week and next. Romaine quality is good to fair and each head is long with cartons weighing 38-40lbs. Red and Green leaf weighing 22-24lbs per case and quality is also good to fair on both varieties. Due to the warm weather pushed leaf production ahead of schedule, there could be a gap at the end of the Yuma season and the beginning of the Huron/Salinas season. CABBage The cabbage market is steady with good supply out of Florida. The price for cabbage is slightly down compared to last week. Supply is expected to remain steady and quality is good. 7 Iceberg Lettuce Iceberg lettuce market slightly improved this week. The bad weather and weak demand has caused the market to be flat. The cartons weights are ranging from pounds, depending on the supplier. Yuma production will be good throughout the week. Epidermal peel, cracking, miss-shaped heads and ribbing appearance have been seen. Onions The onion market is finally seeing the push up that the industry has been expecting. Demand has increased significantly and supplies of onions are getting tighter and prices are rising accordingly. This is especially the case in the Pacific Northwest, where most shippers are asking a few more dollars per bag than last week. Eastern onion prices are also climbing, as growers in Michigan are almost done shipping and are now pulling local onions to repack. Shippers in Mexico are behind schedule due to cold weather, and we won t see significant supplies cross the border for another two weeks. If demand picks up more, onion prices will rise significantly. This market is expected to continue this pattern until April. ChilE Peppers Jalapeño, Anaheim, Serrano, Caribe and Pasilla are now available. This market continues to be strong, with full production coming out of the Southern regions of Mexico. The northern regions are experiencing some production but it is very light. Squash The recent eastern cold temperatures, high winds and heavy rains have kept this market tight, especially on the yellow squash. Green squash appears to have loosened up in the past few days but is starting to show some strength due to rain and cold weather. Mexico continues with moderate supply and quality is good. CaulIFlower Same as broccoli, cauliflower supplies look to be above budgeted numbers. Quality remains good. Salinas is expected to start harvesting by the end of this month. Look for this market to remain steady this week.

8 produce Tomatoes Rounds: In Florida the market is moving down; larger fruit remains steady while smaller fruit (6x6 and 6x7 s) are down. Quality is very good but there are reports of variable quality from grower to grower. Look for there to be a drop in volume in March, pushing the market up. In Mexico, the excessive heat is causing quality issues and white internal tissue on ripe fruit is being reported, this is caused by a virus spread by the white fly. FOB prices are at a minimum. Grapes and Cherries: In Florida, Cherry and grape supplies are up as demand lags. This is putting downward pressure on FOB prices. Quality continues to be good. In Mexico, the market continues to see strong supplies but with a wide range in quality and condition. Expect these commodities to continue to flourish next week and keep pricing low for the next ten days or so. Hothouse: Hothouse and on-the-vine varieties are calm this week, as steady supply meets equally stable demand. Volume has been consistent out of Mexico and demand should pick up next week. Imported product out of Guatemala and Honduras is still available in Florida and keeps this market priced accordingly. Next week should bring continued stable pricing on these items and all rounds, in general. Romas: Florida roma prices are up only slightly as supply and demand continues to stay in equilibrium. Smaller sizes are more available and the pricing is the same as last week. Romas in Mexico are at the minimum and will be for the next week. Puffiness and softness is being reported from most shippers. Quality varies from shipper to shipper. GarlIC Garlic is still coming from California and China. Demand and supplies are stable. Prices have come off compared to last month but look for it to stabilize this week. 8 Cucumbers Eastern supplies continue to be harvested in Florida and imported from Honduras. Eastern supplies remain light due to shipments delayed at the port. Western market is steady with moderate supply crossing from Yucatan. Look for this market to get stronger as demand increases. Eggplant Eggplant market is settling down and supplies are improving. Production is improving in the west and supplies are moderate in the East. Bell Peppers Eastern bell pepper supplies remain tight. The market is steady due to light demand. Mexico will start to increase supply crossings through Nogales in the coming weeks. Look for this market to be more stable. Carrots The carrot market is starting to show some strength and prices are firming up. Quality is good with supplies beginning to get lighten. Georgia cello carrots are still available with moderate supply and good quality. Celery Florida markets remain steady with good supply and quality. Western Celery supplies continue to be harvested in Oxnard, Santa Maria, Yuma and Mexico. Quality is good from all areas and the market is expected to remain steady. Oxnard will continue production through March. Broccoli Broccoli markets are stable with good quality. Yuma continues with warm weather which pushes supplies ahead of schedule by 1 to 2 weeks. Demand continued to be weak for this time of year. Supplies are readily available industry wide and look to be the case for the coming weeks. Salinas s broccoli is scheduled to start up at the end of February or early March. Florida supply is also improving with quality ranging from good to fair. Green Beans Florida beans supply and quality continue to be erratic. Markets are stronger as supplies become to tighten this week.

9 produce Green Onions The majority of green onions are still being produced out of Mexico and California. The market is steady and supply is improving due to the warm temperatures. Demand is good. Look for light to moderate supplies throughout the week. Asparagus The asparagus market is softer with promotional deals available this week. Supplies in Peru are light but Mexico production continues to remain strong this week and next. There are no quality issues reported from either the Peru or Mexico growing areas. tropical Pineapples Both Costa Rican and Mexican pineapples are available in good supply and are of reported good quality as well. Favorable weather and growing conditions have helped strengthen the current crop, and the markets are fairly stable and relaxed. The pineapple markets are flat. Bananas The banana industry is stable this week as current supplies are adequately meeting the current levels of demand. The banana markets are flat. Avocados Mexican growers continue to raise markets by holding back on their harvesting efforts. Larger sized avocados are growing scarcer and pricing is increasing accordingly. Availability is expected to be less abundant than weeks prior and 48 counts and larger are expected to be limited, with more availability on 60, 70, and 84 counts. Avocado quality continues to be reported as excellent, and some Chilean fruit is available on the west coast. Californian avocados are coming online, although their crops are taking longer to ripen than Mexican or Chilean fruit. Crops may size up over the next several weeks, and the avocado markets are up. Berries Strawberries The strawberry markets are lower this week for both Californian and Mexican fruit. Recent favorable weather has increased strawberry output and shown better quality fruit. Oxnard fruit is firm with good color, occasional bruising, and showing some white shoulder. Counts are averaging 18 to 20 with some varieties running larger and the strawberry markets are lower. Blackberries Blackberry supplies have caught back up with demand and Mexico is harvesting healthy numbers of blackberries. Strong volume is expected for the next couple weeks, quality is reportedly about average, and the blackberry markets are a little down. Raspberries It s much of the same for raspberries this week. These winter months produce very few raspberries, and the ones that are available are below average in size and quality. The raspberry markets are flat. Blueberries The U.S. continues to fumigate all imported Chilean blueberries. This protocol continues to holdup and delay the arrival of blueberry shipments, and as a result current supplies are falling short of desired targets. Product availability has picked up in some pockets throughout the country, and the blueberry markets are flat. 9

10 produce Grapes Year-to-date imported grape volume is down approximately 15% when compared to last season. The main varieties affected are Flames, Sugarones and Thompsons. Crimsons are expected to replace the dwindling Flames, and Thompsons production is starting to slow down. Black seedless grapes are starting with good color, size and sugar levels. Green grape quality has remained good, with a nice green color and good sizing. The greens are very sweet, showing brix readings above 22. The import grape market remains stagnant as the month draws to a close, and greater arrivals on both Thompsons and Crimsons are expected over the next few weeks. With this increased volume, the market should see some relief next month, but for the time being the grape markets are flat. Melons Cantaloupes Cantaloupe supplies remain tight but demand has stabilized and the markets have leveled off. Current melons are trending jumbo in size which is common for Honduran fields at this time. The first cycle of Guatemalan cantaloupes has finished up, and supplies are expected to remain snug for the next few weeks. The cantaloupe markets are flat. HONEYDEWS Honeydew supplies remain limited; however relief is expected sometime in the coming weeks. The market is steady to soft as volumes are increasing out of Mexico, while decent shipments are arriving from South America. The overall quality is very good out of both areas with good coloring and excellent sugars. There is a good range of sizes offered and good availability is expected through next month. The cantaloupe markets are flat. Watermelon Watermelon supplies are tight; however more fruit is available this week, which is a trend that is expected to continue in the coming weeks. Limited volumes of melons are crossing from Mexico due to the cooler weather and rain. Overall Mexican crossings are significantly down compared to last year, which has pushed the market pricing up. The sizing is still trending heavier to four and five count cartons, with off-shore melons into Florida being scarce and of subpar quality. The watermelon markets are flat. HANGIng FRUIT Apples Recent demand for Gala apples has been very strong and some growers anticipate that the market on this variety may increase through summertime as storage levels fall. Many shippers may start to push fruit out instead of risking spoilage. This is expected to create some volatility as pricing is projected to fluctuate over the next several months. Imported apples are expected to arrive before the start of April, but they are anticipated to be smaller than current domestics. The apple markets are flat. Pears The first Argentinean bartletts are supposed to arrive in the next week or so, and there is currently a limited quantity of Chilean bartletts available for loading on the east coast. Chilean pear supplies have been tight and demand has been strong. The word is that there will be fewer Argentinean bartletts available which may apply some upward pressure on pricing. Domestic Anjous are still available in good quantities, and there are plenty of Bosc pears to be had as well. The pear markets are flat. Stone Fruit Stone fruit continues to be hard to find this winter which has not been helped by the freeze damage to Chilean fruit last October. Expect available imported fruit to be pricey and below average quality. The stone fruit markets are flat. 10

11 produce citrus Lemons California lemons continue to show limited availability, with production light out of District 2 (Coastal). District 1 (California central valley) and District 3 (California desert) continue to produce stronger fruit, but with shippers having more than adequate backup supplies there has been downward pressure on the markets. The current quality of lemons is very good with a nice tight rind and excellent juice content. The lemon markets are lower this week. Grapefruit Grapefruit shipments were sluggish last week, and many shippers are packing heavily for export. The domestic market is currently saturated with fruit which is expected to continue for the next few weeks and should depress pricing. The grapefruit markets are flat. Oranges It looks like the aftereffects of the freeze have settled down at this point, however growers are still hesitant to guarantee future pricing as they are afraid their crops will end earlier this year and orders may have to be cut short. The markets have relaxed a bit this week as shippers are backed up with their current supplies, and the quality on available Navels is reportedly very good. Growers are still unsure how this summer s Valencia crop survived the freeze, so it s best to expect higher than average markets for the next several weeks. For the time being, the orange markets are a little lower. Limes Limes are currently being imported from eastern Mexico with good quality and good, green color. Supplies are very light and market prices remain high. Weather conditions have been favorable in the growing regions and sizing is peaking on 200s and 230s. The lime markets are slightly down this week.