PRESENT STATUS OF EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION AND HOUSEHOLD DEMAND PROJECTION FOR TAMIL NADU (INDIA)

Transcription

1 Journal of Agricultural Sciences Vol. 57, No. 1, 2012 Pages DOI: /JAS G UDC: :633.85(540) Original scientific paper PRESENT STATUS OF EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION AND HOUSEHOLD DEMAND PROJECTION FOR TAMIL NADU (INDIA) Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj 1*, Satrasala Suryaprakash 1 and Nilakantan Sivaramane 2 1 University of Agricultural Sciences, GKVK, Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangalore Indian Agricultural Statistical Research Institute, Division of Econometrics, New Delhi Abstract: Until the 1990s the major edible consumed in Tamil Nadu state was peanut and sesame. The technological, economic and policy changes thereafter induced dynamism in consumer demand for food, including edible s. In this study, the household demand for individual edible s based on present consumption was assessed and forecasted for 2015 and 2020 for Tamil Nadu. Due to constraints in the secondary data published by National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the primary data was used. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was employed to estimate the income (expenditure) elasticities and in turn used to project the demand for edible s and associated products like ghee and butter. The overall edible demand is expected to grow at 7.0% per annum in Tamil Nadu, with the highest growth of sunflower (8.7%) followed by other s (7.8%), sesame (6.6%), peanut (6.6%) and palm (3.1%). The demand for total edible in rural Tamil Nadu increases from 3.14 lakh tonnes ( ) to 5.3 lakh tonnes (2020), whereas, in urban areas, it increases from 3.24 lakh tonnes to 5.45 lakh tonnes. The non-traditional like sunflower and other s (soybean, corn, rice bran, palm ) has made inroads in the consumption basket and will continue to dominate in the future. Hence, concerted efforts like increasing seed replacement rate, increasing the intensity of adoption of improved technology and appropriate price policy are required to increase productivity of non-traditional crops besides promoting traditional crops (peanut and sesame) to meet the growing edible demand in the state. Key words: edible, almost ideal demand system, household demand, elasticities, Tamil Nadu. * Corresponding author: mggraj74@gmail.com

2 42 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. Introduction In the agricultural economy of India, seeds are important next only to food grains in terms of acreage, production and value. India accounts for about 13% of world seeds area, 8% of world seeds output (Hegde, 2003). Tamil Nadu is one of the major seeds producing state in India. The major edible seed crops grown in this state are peanut, sesame, sunflower etc. The total area under seed crop in the state is million ha with total production of 1.15 million tonnes (Damodharm and Hegde, 2007). The gross value of output from all seeds amounts to Rs crores with total production of 1.15 M t during the year ( The population of Tamil Nadu was 67.0 million during 2010 and it is expected to reach 70.6 million by 2020 (GoI, 2001). As the economy grows and income rises, the household demand for edible s increases due to change in the food consumption pattern. The shift in edible consumption is also apparent among the households as education or awareness increases. Household income and prices of edible s are the major economic factors that determine the demand. In addition, changes in lifestyle, urban influence, changes in tastes and preferences, increased literacy and health consciousness influence the household demand for edible s including both type and quantity. The edible consumption has been changing in the recent years in many states of India due to several socio-economic and policy changes. More changes are occurring in the fast growing states like Tamil Nadu due to several factors. Firstly, it is one of the most urbanised states of India in terms of degree of urbanisation (percentage of population in urban areas) and town density (number of towns per thousand square kilometres). As per 2001 census, 44% of people of Tamil Nadu live in urban area. Secondly, the high literacy level i.e. 73% as against average literacy rate of India of 65% (GoI, 2001) also has effect on the consumption shift in edible s both in terms of quantity and type of. Thirdly, the consumption of sesame is very peculiar to Tamil Nadu which is conspicuous by its absence in other states of India. Fourthly, the Government of Tamil Nadu also supplies the edible palm through the Public Distribution System (PDS), at subsidised price. This policy induced some change in the consumption of edible s, especially, among the poor households in the state. Some of the empirical studies, viz., Bhalla and Hazell (1997), Kumar (1998), Radhakrishna and Venkata Reddy (2002), and Mittal (2006) estimated the demand for food commodities including the edible for India. These studies used National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data to project the demand for food grains including edible s. Most of the researchers estimated demand for edible s as a group and for all India and there is no information available on the demand for individual as well as total edible demand at the state level hindering specific policy planning for individual edible seeds at the state level. Hence, in this study an attempt has been made to estimate the household demand for individual edible s

3 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 43 that are consumed at present for Tamil Nadu state. The demand estimates and forecasts projected will act as evidence for the policy makers to carve different policies like crop production, support policy (price or income), subsidy policy or any other macro policy that directs in increasing the domestic production of seed crops. Materials and Methods Data constraints, sampling methods and sample The NSSO publishes data on different edible s consumed by the rural and urban households for different states and for different rounds (quinquennial years). For Tamil Nadu state, NSSO data encompass only five s, viz., vanaspathi/margarine, mustard, peanut, coconut and other edible s. The other edible group consists of different s which are not clearly differentiated by the NSSO data. Moreover, the important s consumed by the households in recent years like sunflower, soybean, rice bran, palm and the traditional s like sesame are completely lacking in the NSSO data. Due to the dearth in the secondary data, primary data was collected to estimate the demand for different edible s. Stratified Multistage Random Sampling procedure was followed to collect the edible household consumption data. In the first stage, five zones were identified, viz., North, South, West, East/Coastal and Central zones so that it represents all geographical regions of the state. From each zone, one district was randomly selected. In the northern zone, Vellore district, in western zone, Coimbatore district, in central zone, Tiruchirappalli district, in the east/coastal zone, Nagapattinam district and in south zone, Kanyakumari district were selected for the study. In the second stage, one taluk from each of the selected districts and one block from the selected taluk were selected randomly. In the third stage, from each of the selected blocks, a cluster of three villages was selected. The household samples from the selected district headquarter were considered as urban samples and the household samples from the selected cluster of villages constituted the rural sample. In the final stage, rural and urban households were randomly selected and interviewed using the pre-tested questionnaire developed for the purpose. Primary data was collected from the randomly selected households through personal interview during the years 2009 and The urban sample size was 100 in each zone and similarly rural sample size was 100 in each zone. In total, 1,000 sample households were surveyed from all the five zones of the Tamil Nadu state. Analytical techniques The AIDS model in linearized form was chosen to estimate demand function in the present study due to its superiority over other methods. It is used over other methods due to the following reasons. First, the system is linear in parameters and

4 44 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. simple to estimate. Second, the functional form is general and flexible (Deaton and Muellbauer, 1980). Third, the model is the most satisfactory in terms of being able to test the restrictions of adding up, homogeneity and symmetry through linear restrictions on fixed parameters. It is easy to estimate using cross-section and time series data (Green and Alston, 1990; Chen and Veeman, 1991; Buse, 1994) and also testing the predictions of the consumer demand theory. Because of the above desirable characters of the model, it has been widely applied in empirical studies of consumer behaviour. The AIDS model is derived from a consumer expenditure function of the form n n n ln e (u, p) = α0 + Σ α i log (pi) + ½ ΣΣ γij log (pi) log (pj) + β0пpj Eq.(1) i=1 i=1 j=1 Where, e(u,p) is the expenditure function for utility u, and price vector p. Applying Shephard s lemma to the expenditure function yields a demand system in terms of utility and prices. Since utility is unobservable, the resulting demand system cannot be estimated. Using inverse of the expenditure function to express utility in terms of income and prices (indirect utility function) results in budget share equation. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) formulated in terms of budget share used in current study is given by n Wi = αi + Σ γij (Pj) + β if Xi + Σ i d i Z i + e i IMR i +g i Ni = Eq.(2) i=1 Where W i (dependent variable) is the expenditure share of the i th commodity (particular edible ), P j the independent variable of the equation, i.e., the price of each good j (price vector of all other edible s), F X i is the per capita food expenditure vector of the individual household, Z i is the household variable vectors like household size, education of the decision maker, IMR is the Inverse Mills Ratio for the specific edible type i and N i is the dummies for different zones in Tamil Nadu. The following restrictions on the demand parameters were imposed on the demand system n n n Adding up: Σ α i= 1; Σ βi = 0; Σ γij = 0 Eq.(3) i=1 i=1 i=1 Homogeneity: Σ γij = 0 Symmetry: γij = γji Eq.(4) Eq.(5)

5 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 45 Adding up requires that the demand functions must satisfy the linear budget constraint (marginal budget share derived from the system must add up to one). Homogeneity of degree zero in all prices and income means that the scaling of all prices and income has no effect on the quantity demanded of each good. Symmetry entails that the cross-price derivatives of demand are symmetric. The homogeneity and symmetry restrictions were imposed at the simple mean. Adding up restrictions was imposed while composing the parameters of the last equation of the model which was not included in the estimation. The AIDS model was estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) with homogeneity and symmetry restrictions imposed using the SAS software. The expenditure elasticities were derived by Expenditure elasticity: η i = 1+ [β i /w i ] Eq.(6) Demand projections The demand projections for different edible s for rural and urban Tamil Nadu are obtained by using the following formula (Kumar, 1998). Dit = di0 *Nit (1+y x η i ) t Eq.(7) Where, D it is the demand for a commodity for the group i (rural/urban) in t period; d i0 is per capita consumption per month for i group in the base year; y is growth in per capita income (the per capita income growth was calculated by considering 10 years ( to ) per capita income data at constant prices. The estimated annual growth rate of per capita income was 5.8%. This growth rate was calculated using only nine-year data, but in the long run there will be fluctuations in per capita income and hence for the present study, income growth of 5% was assumed for projecting the demand of individual edible s and associated products up to 2020); η i is the expenditure (income) elasticities for rural/urban population and N it is population in t year belonging to i group. (Population projected for Tamil Nadu by the office of Registrar General and census commissioner, New Delhi till 2020 was used for the analysis. According to the 2001 census, the proportion of urban and rural population was 44% and 56%, respectively. Hence the same proportion was used to bifurcate the total projected population into the rural and urban population till 2020). Results and Discussion The results of the present status of household consumption of edible s across the geographical zones and projected demand for individual edibles in Tamil Nadu state for 2015 and 2020 are presented below.

6 46 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. Consumption of edible s and associated products across zones in rural Tamil Nadu Zone-I (North) In this zone, the major edible consumed per capita per month across income classes was traditional peanut (0.295 kg/capita/month) followed by sunflower (0.186 kg/capita/month) and palm (0.099 kg/capita/month) (Table 1). Though the newer edible s, like sunflower, have made inroads in the consumption basket, still traditional peanut consumption is dominant in this zone. An amount of Rs.42.8 per capita per month was spent on s and associated products like butter and ghee in this zone, of which total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure, 59% was spent on peanut, 32% on sunflower and 9% on palm. Hence, it can be concluded that the highest per capita consumption and expenditure in this zone was peanut followed by sunflower and palm. Zone-II (West) In this zone, sunflower was consumed at the rate of kg/capita/month across the income groups followed by peanut (0.174 kg/capita/month), palm (0.109 kg/capita/month) and coconut (0.098 kg/capita/month) (Table 1). Though peanut was the traditional consumed, sunflower consumption has been dominating in recent years in this zone. An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on edible s and associated products like butter and ghee in this zone, of which total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure, 42% was expended on sunflower, 27% on peanut, 15% on coconut and 8% on palm. Hence we can conclude that in this zone, the rural households spent more on sunflower followed by peanut and coconut. The coconut consumption was expected, since this zone is contiguous with the Kerala state where consumption of coconut is higher than of any other. Zone-III (Central) The major consumed in rural areas of this zone was sesame (0.277 kg/capita/month) followed by peanut (0.201 kg/capita/month) and sunflower (0.164 kg/capita/month) (Table 1). This zone falls in the central part of the state where traditional consumed was peanut as well as sesame and rural households still consume the same combination. An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on s and associated products like butter and ghee

7 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 47 in zone III, of which total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure 48% was spent on sesame followed by 24% on peanut and 17% on sunflower. It can be concluded that in this zone, the rural sample households consume and expend money on sesame followed by peanut and sunflower. Zone-IV (East/Coastal) In this zone, the major consumed was palm (0.258 kg/capita/month) followed by sunflower (0.222 kg/capita/month) and sesame (0.188 kg/capita/month) (Table 1). The palm consumption was high in this zone and this was due to high fish consumption. An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on edible s and associated products like butter and ghee, of which, total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure 43% was spent on sesame, 31% on sunflower, 20% on palm and 3% on peanut. It can be concluded that in this zone, the rural households spent more on sesame though the quantity consumed of palm was higher and this was due to high price of sesame vis-à-vis other s. Zone-V (South) The major consumed in rural areas of this zone was palm (0.198 kg/capita/month) followed by coconut (0.146 kg/capita/month), sunflower (0.139 kg/capita/month) and sesame (0.016 kg/capita/month) (Table 1). Similar to the zone IV, palm consumption was high due to higher consumption of fish products in this zone. An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on edible s and associated products in this zone, of which total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure 37% was spent on coconut, 30% on sunflower, 25% on palm and 6% was expended on sesame. It can be concluded that the highest per capita consumption among the rural sample households in this zone was of palm followed by coconut. The pooled data revealed that around kg/capita/month of edible was consumed among the sample rural households in Tamil Nadu. The major consumed was sunflower (0.203 kg/capita/month) followed by peanut (0.139 kg/capita/month), palm (0.153 kg/capita/month), sesame (0.102 kg/capita/month), and coconut (0.54 kg/capita/month). It can be concluded that the consumption of sunflower was higher than the traditional peanut in rural Tamil Nadu. The per capita expenditure per month was also high on sunflower vis-à-vis other s. In coastal and southern zones the consumption of palm was high vis-à-vis traditional s and this was due to higher consumption of fish and fish based products.

8 48 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. Table 1. Monthly per capita consumption of edible s by sample households in rural Tamil Nadu. Zones Oil type Peanut Sunflower Sesame Coconut Palm Other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) Total s (kg) I II III IV V Pooled Value (Rs.) (kg) Value (Rs.) (58.45) (27.20) (31.8) (42.36) (6.80) (14.86) (9.00) (7.50) (0.01) (1.26) (kg) Value (Rs.) (24.20) (17.42) (48.03) 0.73 (1.04) 3.95 (5.61) 2.56 (3.63) (kg) Value (Rs.) (kg) (3.46) (30.56) (42.94) (2.35) (19.54) (1.12) Value (Rs.) (kg) 0.03 (0.09) (30.35) (6.82) (37.42) (24.96) (0.34) Value (Rs.) (23.17) (29.71) (24.83) 4.41 (8.84) 5.97 (11.97) 0.72 (1.44) Ghee Butter Total Note: i) Zone I: Northern Zone (Vellore district), Zone II: Western Zone (Coimbatore), Zone III: Central Zone (Tiruchirapalli), Zone IV: Eastern/Coastal Zone (Nagapattinam), Zone V: Southern Zone (Kanyakumari); ii) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of total expenditure on edible s. Consumption of edible and associated products across zones in urban Tamil Nadu Zone-I (North) The major consumed in urban areas in this zone was sunflower (0.429 kg/capita/month) followed by peanut (0.247 kg/capita/month) and palm (0.076 kg/capita/month) (Table 2). An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent for s and associated products like butter and ghee in this zone, of which total expenditure was Rs Among the total expenditure 52% was spent on sunflower followed by 37% on peanut and 6% on palm. Hence, it can be concluded that the highest per capita consumption and expenditure in this zone was sunflower followed by peanut. The traditional peanut consumption has been overtaken by the sunflower consumption in this zone.

9 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 49 Zone-II (West) In this zone the major consumed was sunflower (0.402 kg/capita/month) followed by peanut (0.248 kg/capita/month), palm (0.069 kg/capita/month), sesame (0.048 kg/capita/month) and coconut (0.031 kg/capita/month) (Table 2). An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on edible s and associated products like butter and ghee in this zone, of which total expenditure stands at Rs Of the total expenditure, 43% was spent on sunflower, 27% on peanut, 15% on coconut and 8% on palm. Hence, it can be concluded that, in this zone, the urban households expend more on sunflower followed by ground nut. In this zone also the traditional peanut consumption has been overtaken by peanut. Zone-III (Central) The major consumed in this zone was sunflower (0.393 kg/capita/month) followed by sesame (0.190 kg/capita/month) and peanut (0.120 kg/capita/month) as depicted in Table 2. An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent for s and associated products like butter and ghee in this zone, of which total expenditure was Rs Regarding the total expenditure 39% was spent on sunflower followed by 38% on sesame and 15% on peanut. It can be concluded that in this zone, the urban sample households consume and expend more money on sunflower followed by sesame. The total monthly per capita expenditure on edible s is high in this zone vis-à-vis other zones due to more consumption of high-priced sesame, as well as due to higher ghee and butter consumption. Zone-IV (East/Coastal) The sunflower consumption was (0.364 kg/capita/month) followed by sesame (0.214 kg/capita/month) and palm (0.182 kg/capita/month) (Table 2). Similar to urban areas of other zones, the consumption of sunflower outstripped the traditional s and this might be due to an increased awareness about low cholesterol in sunflower compared with traditional s. An amount of Rs per capita per month has been spent on edible s and associated products like butter and ghee, of which total expenditure was Rs As for the total expenditure, 39% was spent on sesame, 37% on sunflower, 10% each on peanut and palm. We can infer that in this zone the urban households spend more on sesame though the quantity consumed is less than the quantity of sunflower. This was due to higher price of sesame compared with other s.

10 50 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. Zone-V (South) In this zone, the major edible consumed by the households was sunflower (0.269 kg/capita/month) as in other zones, followed by palm (0.214 kg/capita/month), coconut (0.097 kg/capita/month) and sesame (0.041 kg/capita/month) (Table 2). An amount of Rs per capita per month was spent on edible s and associated products like butter and ghee, of which total expenditure alone stands at Rs Of the total expenditure, 45% was expended on sunflower, 21% on palm, 18% on coconut and 12% on sesame. We can conclude that the highest per capita consumption among the urban sample households in this zone was of sunflower followed by palm. Table 2. Monthly per capita consumption of edible s by sample households in urban Tamil Nadu. Zones Oil type Peanut Sunflowe r Sesame Coconut Palm Other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) Total s Qty (kgs) I II III IV V Pooled Value (Rs.) (37.00) (52.59) 1.80 (3.38) 0.18 (0.33) 3.05 (5.74) 0.49 (0.92) (kgs) Value Value (Rs.) (kgs) (Rs.) (35.65) (14.67) (42.85) (39.22) (10.69) (38.44) 2.96 (4.78) (0.67) 2.72 (4.39) (5.74) 1.01 (1.63) (1.23) (kgs) Value Value (Rs.) (kgs) (Rs.) (10.90) (0.72) (37.38) (45.58) (39.00) (12.40) (0.39) (17.73) (10.97) (20.77) 0.89 (1.33) (2.77) (kgs) Value (Rs.) (20.23) (43.26) (22.41) 2.33 (3.99) 5.21 (8.93) 0.68 (1.16) Ghee Butter Total Note: i) Zone I: Northern Zone (Vellore district), Zone II: Western Zone (Coimbatore), Zone III: Central Zone (Tiruchirapalli), Zone IV: Eastern/Coastal Zone (Nagapattinam), Zone V: Southern Zone (Kanyakumari); ii) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of total expenditure on edible s. The pooled data revealed that around kg/capita/month of edible was consumed among urban sample households in Tamil Nadu during the year The major consumed was sunflower (0.372 kg) followed by

11 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 51 peanut (0.142 kg), and palm (0.128 kg). We can infer that the consumption of sunflower was higher than of the traditional peanut in urban Tamil Nadu and this might be due to factors like high income, high education and awareness about s in urban areas. The per capita consumption was high in zone IV (coastal zone) and this might be due to higher consumption of fish products in this zone vis-à-vis other zones. Projected demand for rural Tamil Nadu The edible demand projection for rural Tamil Nadu for different years , 2015 and 2020 is presented in Table 3. During the household demand for peanut was 0.66 lakh tonnes, sunflower (0.98 lakh tonnes), sesame (0.48 lakh tonnes), coconut (0.26 lakh tonnes), palm (0.71 lakh tonnes) and other s (0.05 lakh tonnes). The corresponding demand in 2015 will be 0.88 lakh tonnes of peanut, 1.36 lakh tonnes of sunflower, 0.63 lakh tonnes of sesame, 0.33 lakh tonnes of coconut, 0.83 lakh tonnes of palm and 0.05 lakh tonnes of other s. By the year 2020, the peanut demand in rural Tamil Nadu will be 1.16 lakh tonnes with annual demand growth of 7.6%. Sunflower demand will be 1.89 lakh tonnes by 2020 and demand will grow at 9.3% per annum. Similarly, the sesame demand will be 0.82 lakh tonnes with the annual growth of 7.1%. Table 3. Household demand projection for different edible s for rural Tamil Nadu (lakh tonnes). Projected demand Actual Projection Commodities growth * Peanut Sunflower Sesame Coconut Palm Other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) Negligible Total s Ghee and butter *actuals estimated based on primary survey. Note: per capita consumption levels and expenditure (income) elasticities estimated from primary survey were used for projecting the demand for the years 2015 and The coconut and palm demand will be 0.42 and 0.05 lakh tonnes, respectively by The annual demand of coconut and palm will grow at

12 52 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. 6.1% and 3.5 %, respectively. The palm demand (3.5% per annum growth) will be less than the demand for other s since people perceive this as a commodity of poor people and moreover the awareness about the ill effects of palm vis-a-vis other s is increasing. It can be concluded that the demand for total edible in rural Tamil Nadu increases from 3.14 lakh tonnes during to 5.30 lakh tonnes during The overall demand growth for all edible s in rural Tamil Nadu will be 6.9% per annum. Among all the edible s, the major demand will be for sunflower (9.3%) followed by peanut (7.6%). The ghee and butter demand will increase in rural Tamil Nadu from 0.10 lakh tonnes during to 0.27 lakh tonnes during Projected demand for urban Tamil Nadu The edible demand projection for urban Tamil Nadu for different years , 2015 and 2020 are presented in Table 4. The household demand for total edible s during was 3.24 lakh tonnes and it is expected to increase to 4.22 and 5.45 lakh tonnes during the years 2015 and 2020, respectively. The peanut demand will increase from 0.52 lakh tonnes ( ) to 0.80 lakh tonnes (2020) with an annual growth of 5.4%, whereas leapfrog jump in demand for sunflower is expected from 1.38 lakh tonnes ( ) to 2.53 lakh tonnes (2020) with an annual growth of 8.3%. The sesame demand will be 0.63 lakh tonnes during 2020 and the annual demand growth will be 7.0%. However, during the same period the absolute demand of coconut and palm shows marginal increase. Table 4. Household demand projection for different edible s for urban Tamil Nadu (lakh tonnes). Projected demand Actual Projection Commodities growth * Peanut Sunflower Sesame Coconut Palm Other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) Total s Ghee and butter *actuals estimated based on primary survey. Note: per capita consumption levels and expenditure (income) elasticities estimated from primary survey were used for projecting the demand for the years 2015 and 2020.

13 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 53 This might be due to an increased awareness about the high saturated fat content in coconut and palm among the urban households. The ghee and butter demand also increases from 0.16 lakh tonnes during to 0.40 lakh tonnes during It can be inferred that the urban households will demand more sunflower vis-à-vis other s in the coming years in Tamil Nadu (Table 4). Projected total edible demand for Tamil Nadu (rural and urban) The total edible demand projections for Tamil Nadu state for the periods 2015 and 2020 are presented in Table 5. The projected demand for the year 2020 was 1.96 lakh tonnes of peanut, 4.42 lakh tonnes of sunflower, 1.44 lakh tonnes of sesame, 0.58 lakh tonnes of coconut, 1.53 lakh tonnes of palm and 0.82 lakh tonnes of other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) during The total edible demand for Tamil Nadu will be 8.3 and lakh tonnes during 2015 and 2020, respectively. For the state has a whole, the edible demand will increase at a growth of 7.0% per annum. The highest growth will be for sunflower (8.7%) followed by other s (7.8%), sesame (6.9%), peanut (6.6%) and palm (3.1%). Table 5. Household demand projection for different edible s for Tamil Nadu (lakh tonnes). Projected demand Actual Projection Commodities growth * Peanut Sunflower Sesame Coconut Palm Other s (soybean, corn, rice bran) Total s Ghee & butter *actuals estimated based on primary survey. Note: per capita consumption levels and income (expenditure) elasticities estimated from primary survey were used for projecting the demand for the years 2015 and Comparison of demand projections for edible s The edible demand projected by other researchers viz., Bhalla and Hazell (1997), Kumar (1998), Radhakrishna and Venkata Reddy (2002), Mittal (2006)

14 54 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. are presented in Table 6. All these studies projected demand (2020) for edible as a group and for all India and not for individual edible s and for different states and hence it is not comparable with the present estimates. However, the projected demand by Basavaraj (2007) for Karnataka state for whole edible s group is comparable with the present study considering the population and per capita income differences between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu states. Table 6. Comparisons of household demand projections of edible s for Commodity group Present study for Tamil Nadu state (PCY growth of 5%)* Basavaraj, 2007 for Karnataka state (PCY growth of 5%)* Bhalla and Hazell, 1997 for India (PCY growth of 5.5%)** Radhakrishna and Venkata Reddy, 2002, for India (PCY growth of 5%)** Mittal, 2006, for India (GDP growth of 7%)** Edible s *projections in lakh tonnes;**projections in million tonnes; PCY-Per Capita Income and GDP-Gross Domestic Product. Conclusion The demand growth of edible s in Tamil Nadu state will be higher than the assumed five per cent income growth. The high demand for edible s may be attributed to income growth, change in lifestyles, change in dietary pattern, increased awareness about different s, population growth etc. To meet the growing edible demand the production of traditional and non-traditional seeds has to be stepped up in the state. Since horizontal increase (area expansion) is near impossible, the productivity improvement (vertical expansion) through extension of frontier technologies in the important edible crops like peanut, sunflower, sesame, palm etc., is the need of the hour. There is a necessity for public investment in irrigation infrastructure since the majority of the seed crops in Tamil Nadu state are at present grown in dry land and rainfed conditions.

15 Present status of edible consumption and household demand projection 55 References Basavaraj, G. (2007): Household demand for food in Karnataka: an economic analysis. PhD thesis. University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, India. Bhalla, G.S., Hazell, P. (1997): Foodgrains demand in India to 2020: a preliminary exercise. Economic and Political Weekly 23(52):A Buse, A. (1994): Evaluating the linearised almost ideal demand system. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76: Chen, P.Y., Veeman, M.M. (1991): An almost ideal demand system for with meats and habit formation and structural change. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 39: Damodaram, T., Hegde, D.M. (2007): Oilseeds situation in India: a statistical compendium, directorate of seeds research, Hyderabad, India. Deaton, A., Muellbauer, J. (1980): An almost ideal demand system. American Economic Review 70: Government of India (GoI, Census Report) (2001): Registrar general and census commissioner, New Delhi. Green, R., Alston J.M (1990): Elasticities in AIDS models. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(2): Hegde, D.M. (2003): Vegetable s scenario in India: past, present and future. Renewable Energy Science Series 12:1-17. Kumar, P. (1998): Food demand and supply projections for India. Agricultural Economics Policy Paper, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi. Mittal, S. (2006): Structural shift in demand for food: projections for Working Paper No. 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi. Radhakrishna, R., Venkata Reddy, K. (2002): Food security and nutrition: vision Received: April 9, 2012 Accepted: September 10, 2012

16 56 Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj et al. SADAŠNJE STANJE POTROŠNJE JESTIVOG ULJA I PROCENA TRAŽNJE DOMAĆINSTAVA ZA TAMIL NADU (INDIJA) Gurrappanaidu Govindaraj 1*, Satrasala Suryaprakash 1 i Nilakantan Sivaramane 2 1 Univerzitet poljoprivrednih nauka, GKVK, Odsek za agroekonomiju, Bangalore Indijski institut za poljoprivredna statistička istraživanja, Katedra za ekonometriku, New Delhi R e z i m e Sve do devedesetih godina dvadesetog veka glavno jestivo ulje koje se koristilo u državi Tamil Nadu je bilo kikirikijevo i susamovo ulje. Tehnološke, ekonomske i promene politike su posle toga dovele do promene u tražnji potrošača za hranom, uključujući jestiva ulja. U ovom radu se ocenjuje trenutna tražnja domaćinstava za pojedinim jestivim uljima i predviđa potrošnja za period i godine za Tamil Nadu. Usled ograničenosti sekundarnih podataka koje je objavila National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), korišćeni su primarni podaci. Korišćen je Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model kako bi se procenile elastičnosti prihoda (rashoda), a samim tim je korišćen i za procenu tražnje jestivih ulja i sličnih proizvoda kao što su ghee (vrsta maslaca koji se koristi u kulinarstvu u Indiji) i maslac. Očekuje se da ukupna tražnja za jestivim uljem raste po stopi od 7% godišnje u Tamil Nadu, pri čemu bi najveći rast bio kod suncokretovog ulja (8,7%), a zatim kod drugih ulja (7,8%), susamovog ulja (6,6%), kikirikijevog ulja (6,6%) i palminog ulja (3,1%). Tražnja za ukupnim jestivim uljem u ruralnom Tamil Nadu se povećava sa 3, lakh tona ( ) na 5, lakh tona (2020), dok se u gradskim sredinama povećava sa 3, lakh tona na 5, lakh tona. Ulja koja nisu tradicionalna kao što je suncokretovo ulje i druga ulja (sojino, kukuruzno, ulje pirinčanih mekinja, palmino ulje) su našla mesto u potrošačkoj korpi i nastaviće da dominiraju u budućnosti. Stoga, udruženi napori kao što su povećanje stope zamene semena, ubrzano usvajanje unapređene tehnologije i odgovarajuće politike cena su neophodni kako bi se povećala proizvodnja netradicionalnih useva pored promovisanja tradicionalnih useva (kikiriki i susam) kako bi se zadovoljile potrebe sve veće tražnje za jestivim uljima u državi. Ključne reči: jestivo ulje, almost ideal demand system, tražnja domaćinstva, elastičnosti, Tamil Nadu. Primljeno: 9. aprila Odobreno: 10. septembra * Autor za kontakt: mggraj74@gmail.com