Charles Creek Flood Zone Modeling: A Correlation Study of Environmental Conditions Versus Water Level in the Pasquotank Watershed
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1 Charles Creek Flood Zone Modeling: A Correlation Study of Environmental Conditions Versus Water Level in the Pasquotank Watershed
2 Team Members Je aime Powell Nartezya Dykes Lekedrick Easley Jerome Mitchell Mentor Student Student Mentor 2
3 Overview Motivation Abstract Research Questions Methodology Materials Initial Setup Procedures Problems/Solutions Data Analysis Conclusion Future Work 3
4 Motivation 4
5 Abstract The Charles Creek area in Elizabeth City, NC experiences frequent flood conditions seemingly unrelated to rain fall amounts. The purpose of this study was to compare barometric pressure, lunar cycles, wind directions and wind speeds with water depth readings of Charles Creek (a tributary of the Pasquotank River). A static remote imaging system was used to measure water depth through pixel enumeration and referencing through remote sensing techniques coupled with custom image processing software. Envirnomental data was collected through Elizabeth City State University s National Renewable Energy Laboratory Weather Monitoring Station. The data was correlated using MINITAB to find an equation that approximated the model of the rise of the creek s water level based upon environmental conditions. The regression equation had a coefficient of determination of 42%; this means that there was a 42% probability that the model was useful at predicting the pixel count based on environmental variables. 5
6 Research Questions Does barometric pressure have a correlative relationship with the Charles Creek water level? Which environmental variable had a greater effect on the Charles Creek water level? Can a visual method be used to capture images in order to measure water levels in Charles Creek? What is the equation that can model the interaction between the water level and environmental variables? 6
7 Methodology: Materials Hardware Laptop Creative Webcam Model Tripp-Lite Battery 7ft Pole Standard Tape Measure Software Dropbox Google Docs Minitab ENVI Chronolapse 7
8 Methodology: Initial Setup Installation June 8, 2011 North West m From Imaging System to pole -7 ft below sea level Ubuntu Linux Camorama 8
9 Methodology: Procedures S Insitu Process S Epoch Script S Google Docs S ENVI S ECSU Weather Station S Brian Casey Artifact Page 9
10 Problems/Solutions Bad/Poor Imagery Camorama Chronolapse Matlab MiniTab 10
11 Results: Data Analysis Pixels= *(Barometric Pressure) *(Wind Direction)-0.122*(Wind Speed)+4.29*(Lunar Cycle) 11
12 Conclusion The barometric pressure placed inside of the model created by the flood zone modeling team showed a R-squared value of 2.5% that indicated that it had very little correlative relation with the Charles Creek water level. Further more the data analysis did show that the lunar cycle variable, individually, placed in the model showed greater effect on the water level of Charles Creek than others. It had a R-squared value of 40.5%. Finally a visual method was proven to be helpful to capture images in order to measure the water levels in Charles Creek and facilitate the teams procedures and derive a meaningful model from the data analysis.the equation that modeled the interaction between the water level and environmental variables was Pixels= *(Barometric Pressure) *(Wind Direction)-0.122*(Wind Speed)+4.29*(Lunar Cycle) 12
13 Future Research Automated Image Processing Program Night Lighting Cloud Based Image Storage System Pressure Gauge 13
14 Questions? 14
15 References J. Hampton, "Flood-Prone Elizabeth City Neighborhood's a Puzzle," The Virginian-Pilot, Norfolk, January 16, E. C. D. A. (2011, June 9) Action on Bridge Should Relieve Flooding. [Online]. Available: action-bridge-should-relieve-flooding L. Adams. (2011, June 16) Effects of Barometric Pressure. [Online]. Available: page.asppage=barometric W. O. U. (2011, June 16) Weather Facts: Isobars on Surface Maps. [Online]. Available: Isobars-on-surface-maps.htm W. (2011, June 25) Glossary of Weather Terms. [Online]. Available: K. Cooley. (2011, June 26) The Moon and Tides: How The Moon Affects 15 Ocean Tides. [Online]. Available: ~krcool/astro/moon/moontides/
16 References cont N. R. E. L. (2011, June 26) NREL: MIDC/Elizabeth City State University. [Online]. Available: B. Casey. (2011, June 26) The Moon's Phase. [Online]. Available: G. Johnson, "Interview," Phone, R. Atkins. (2011, June 26) Field of View. [Online]. Available: , June 26) Field of View. [Online]. Available: W. Russell. (2011, June 27) Resolution. [Online]. Available: (2011, June 22) Resolution. [Online]. Available: (2011,June 22)ENVI. [Online]. Available: A. R. S. C. S. (2011, June 23) ENVI. [Online]. Available: (2011, June 20) ChronoLapse. [Online]. Available: C. Green. (2011, June 20) ChronoLapse. [Online]. Available: 16
17 References cont S. Khan, "ECSU Weather Station," electronic mail, J. O'Brien. (2011, June 26) MODELING TSUNAMI WAVES AND OCEAN STORM SURGES WITH FLO-2. [Online]. Available: uploads/tsunami-and-storm-surge.pdf Hollowell and Hoover. (2011, June 9) Pasquotank River Watershed Integrated Water Design (IWD) Project. [Online]. Available: Pasquotank.html Tuomey. (2011, July 2) What Does 'Correlation' Mean? [Online]. Available: (2011, July 2) Positive Correlation. [Online]. Available: (2011, July 2) Regression. [Online]. Available: N. Henry. (2011, July 2) R-square and Standardization in Regression. [Online]. Available: (2011, July 3) R-Squared. [Online]. Available: M. Mutchler. (2011, July 3) Glossary of Statistical Terms. [Online]. Available: W. Trochim. (2011, July 7) The T-Test. [Online]. Available: (2011, July 7) What Is the Correlation Coefficient. [Online]. Available: (2011, July 7) Correlation. [Online]. Available: ] 17
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