Special Crops Update. Highlights & Lowlights. Inside This Issue 1 Highlights & Lowlights 2 Pea Markets Mostly Calm 5 Dry Bean Market Well- Peas

Transcription

1 Special Crops Update March 22, 17 Volume 7, Issue 44 LeftField Commodity Research, 52 Swiss Bay, Winnipeg, MB R2G 2P3 ph: fax: Inside This Issue 1 Highlights & Lowlights 2 Pea Markets Mostly Calm 5 Dry Bean Market Well- Supplied? 7 Not Much Excitement in the Mustard Outlook 9 Modest Gains Possible for Canaryseed 11 Special Crop Bid Sheet 12 Global Price Indications 13 CGC Special Crop Handling Statistics 14 S&Ds and Charts Highlights & Lowlights Peas Indian pea prices have firmed up while Canadian values are steady. The pace of farmer deliveries and licensed exports has strengthened in the past few weeks. Canadian exports were 2,000 tonnes in January, for a new Q2 record and supports a full-year record of 3.6 million tonnes. Yellow pea production for 17 is forecast at nearly 4.0 million tonnes and the green crop at,000 tonnes. Dry Beans US bean inventories are more comfortable for black than pintos. Estimates of Mexican bean yields are high but prices are firming up during harvest, a contradictory signal. The Brazilian first bean crop has recovered sharply from last year. Chinese bean acreage could expand in 17. Mustard Mustard exports were below average again in January, the slow season. Exports tend to pick up in the spring with some tentative signals of improved European demand. Canadian yellow and oriental mustard crops are expected to shrink in 17 while brown production could actually increase. Canaryseed Export volumes improved in January with a return of Indonesian buying. A seasonal bump in export demand should support bids. Low new-crop bids will discourage acres and tighten up supplies in 17/18.

2 Page 2 March 22, 17 Special Crops Update Pea Markets Mostly Calm Throughout the turmoil caused by the various rumours and announcements by the Indian government, pea prices have seen a very limited response. Bids in North America have shown only slight weakness while values (for most pulses) in India have actually risen. Of course, supporting domestic pulse prices was the main reason behind the Indian government s proposed import restrictions. The first Indian announcement/rumour was about applying a ban on fumigation at Indian ports, while still requiring fumigation of cargoes at exporters ports of origin. While this issue hasn t definitively been resolved, fresh rumours are circulating that the fumigation ban could be put off yet again, essentially allowing business as usual. Even if this isn t resolved, the trade is already figuring out ways of working with the ban by fumigating cargoes (at least bulk shipments) at ports between Canada and India. At the same time, the Indian government is also rumoured to be considering reviving pulse import duties. Some suggest these duties could be around % and could be applied by the end of March. The rationale for this approach is that it s far more flexible for the Indian government as it can vary duties among individual pulse crops and adjust rates as needed. Whether import duties would end up lowering Canadian prices or raise Indian pulse prices will depend on the supply/demand balance. If supplies are comfortable (as they are now) or heavy, the % duty would largely come off Canadian prices and affect the bids to the farmer. But in the case of tight pea supplies, the duty would force Indian importers to pay more and would ultimately get passed on to consumers. So far, the Indian situation has had very little measurable impact on Canadian pea exports. In fact, the pace of movement has actually increased since this news hit the front page. Over the past eight weeks, farmers have been delivering an average of 80,000 tonnes into the elevator system, nearly double the normal

3 LeftField Special Crops Update Page 3 pace for this time of year. And those deliveries are in response to exporters shipping programs, not simply a matter of farmers jamming peas into the elevator system. Weekly exports from the licensed elevator system have also been strong recently, averaging 75,000 tonnes per week over the past four weeks. The year-to-date total (of licensed exports) as of week 32 is 2.36 million tonnes, exactly,000 tonnes more than last year and almost one million tonnes ahead of the 5-year average pace. The complete StatsCan export data for January is now out and shows the 16/17 pace for both the 1 st and 2 nd quarters were new records. The Aug- Jan total of 2.2 million tonnes means another 1.4 million is needed in the second half of 16/17 to reach our full-year forecast of 3.6 million tonnes. Because of the record pace for the first half, that target still appears doable, even without hitting new records for the 3 rd and 4 th quarters. In January, a total of 2,000 tonnes of Canadian peas were exported, but with recent changes to StatsCan s HS product codes, the breakdown by type isn t clear. Of the total, 122,000 tonnes went to India, with China taking 49,000 tonnes and Bangladesh a distant third at 11,000 tonnes. We are confident China will remain a solid buyer of peas through the rest of 16/17, but the potential to hit our full-year export forecast of 3.6 million tonnes largely depends on steady shipments continuing to India. Based on what we re hearing so far, it appears peas are still moving to India but new business is more tentative. The price chart on page 2 shows steady to firmer Indian pea prices in 17 despite heavy imports and a favourable rabi season. This suggests overall demand for peas has expanded in 16/17, which was partly supported by India s decision to build 2.0 million tonnes of pulse buffer stocks. Roughly three-quarters of those stocks are now in store and once they re full, India s import pace will likely slow down. But until then, India will continue to need pea imports.

4 Page 4 March 22, 17 Special Crops Update As long as Canadian exports end up close to our target (and the 16 crop isn t revised higher), 16/17 ending stocks of peas (shown above) will be quite well-balanced. The firm price environment tends to confirm this healthy supply situation. If supplies were considerably heavier than indicated on paper, we would have already seen that reflected by softer prices. Two weeks ago, we bumped up our forecast of 17 pea plantings by another 150,000 acres, which would take seeded area up to 4.5 million acres, 6% more than last year. That said, other forecasters have different ideas, including some suggestions that seeded area will actually drop this spring. Within our 6% increase in total seeded area, we re forecasting a 15% drop in green pea acreage while yellows would be up %. Based on normal abandonment and a return (lower) to 5-year average yields, yellow pea production would be just under 4.0 million tonnes, 5% less than last year. Green pea production would be right around,000 tonnes, 21% less than last year. This production scenario suggests a smaller 17 crop would end up restricting green pea export potential more than it would for yellows. Green pea supplies would be low enough that exports (including other minor types) would be limited to less than 300,000 tonnes, something that hasn t happened since 02/03. Meanwhile, This production scenario suggests a smaller 17 there would still be enough yellow peas to supply crop would end up restricting green pea export an export program over 3.0 million tonnes. Of potential more than it would for yellows. course, if the more pessimistic acreage forecasts are right, a tighter 17/18 supply situation would limit exports further and provide new-crop price support. The problem with that is we re not as optimistic about pea exports for 17/18 as in the current marketing year, largely because of quieter Indian demand. This sets up a potential outcome where yellow pea supplies become more burdensome while green peas are tight. If so, it would finally allow price relationships to return to the more typical situation, where greens are showing a premium over yellows. Seasonal tendencies for both yellow and green peas are sideways until mid-may when they start heading toward the harvest bottom. With adequate supplies and steady demand this year, prices will remain mostly flat until the new-crop picture gets a little clearer. The new-crop price outlook remains fairly friendly, especially for greens, but acreage and yield unknowns are considerable.

5 LeftField Special Crops Update Page 5 90-Day Price Probability Pea Bids (C$/bu, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (2C or better) Under $ % $ $8.00 % $ $ % Over $8.50 % Green (2C or better) Under $8.00 % $ $8.50 % $ $ % Over $9.00 5% Dry Bean Market Well-Supplied? Dry bean markets have been very quiet for several months now, largely due to limited trading activity at this time of year. The seasonal price index for North Dakota dry bean bids suggests this sideways movement will continue for at least a few more weeks. The index shows that bids for pintos, blacks and small whites all tend to be flat through the spring months and start to turn higher in early to mid June. That s the time when commercial inventories start to run lower and bidding becomes more active again. The latest stocks report from North Dakota shows commercial inventories as of Dec 31. Black bean stocks of 1.07 million cwt were above last year and at the second highest level on record. Pinto bean stocks in North Dakota at 4.61 million cwt were below the average of 5.07 million cwt and closer to the lower end of the recent range. For navies, commercial stocks of 1.26 million cwt were lower than the last two years and below the average of 1.35 million cwt. While these stocks numbers are already a little dated and only represent North Dakota (the largest producing state), they provide a few clues about possible direction for the remainder of 16/17. Because stocks aren t at extreme levels (either high or low), prices are more likely to follow seasonal tendencies. The more comfortable black bean supplies would suggest less of a seasonal boost heading into the summer while pintos could see a little more support from the lower inventories. Of course, a large part of the outlook also depends on developments in other countries. In Mexico, the winter bean harvest is well underway and the early indications are pointing to a sizable production increase. Seeded area was 13% larger than last year but very much in line with the -year average. At about the halfway point in the harvest, yields reported by the Ag

6 Page 6 March 22, 17 Special Crops Update Ministry are very positive, although Mexican yields early in the season tend to be higher than the later results. Even so, the winter bean crop could end up in the ballpark of 300,000 tonnes, nearly 0,000 tonnes more than last year. We re still not convinced though as the optimistic production estimate is at odds with Mexican bean prices that have strengthened in recent weeks even while the harvest is ongoing. We ll continue to monitor both the production estimates and price movements to see how this will be resolved. Earlier in March, we indicated the Argentine 16/17 dry bean crop was estimated to be mostly on par with last year, including similar production for the individual classes. Forecasts of the 17/18 acreage which has now been planted aren t available yet. Dry bean prices in Argentina are sideways to lower after coming off the 16 highs. Government estimates of the Brazilian first dry bean crop, with harvest nearly complete, show a sizable increase. Seeded area was 13% higher than the very small 15/16 crop and nearly in line with the 5-year average. Yields this year were also up, 18% more than last year and 23% above average. The result is a first bean crop of 1.38 million tonnes versus 1.03 million last year and the average of 1.12 million tonnes. The largest production increase was seen in cowpea, up nearly 150%, with carioca estimated 30% larger than last year while the black bean crop was only % larger than last year. In addition, seeded area of the second bean crop is already estimated to be larger than last year as well. These larger crops set the stage for a sizable rebound in the total 16/17 bean crop. In the past few weeks, Brazilian bean prices have firmed up slightly but are well off the highs of 16. One area of concern is the potential for increased plantings of dry beans in China. Because the Chinese government is deemphasizing corn production, other crops will gain acreage and that could include dry beans. Already in 16, Chinese exports had increased to 590,000 tonnes versus 463,000 tonnes in 15. Getting hard acreage and production estimates from China is difficult and without price signals, anecdotal reports and export data will be the main indicators of increased dry bean production in 17.

7 LeftField Special Crops Update Page 7 Some modest strength will likely show up in late spring or early summer in line with seasonal tendencies, but it doesn t look like a surge in Latin American demand will show up to boost prices beyond that. The USDA acreage report at the end of March will be a key signal for the new-crop market. 90-Day Price Probability Dry Bean Bids (C$/cwt, Eastern Prairies) Range Probability Pinto (1C) Under $38 15% $38 - $ % $ - $42 30% Over $42 15% Black (1C) Under $38 5% $38 - $ 15% $ - $42 50% Over $42 30% Navy (1C) Under $36 % $36 - $38 % $38 - $ 30% Over $ % Not Much Excitement in the Mustard Outlook Canadian mustard bids continue to exhibit few signs of life. We expect that even though companies are posting bids, only limited volumes are being bought and sold at this stage of the year. This fits with the seasonal pattern which tends to be quiet, heading sideways until late April when there s a bit more strength for yellow and oriental while brown starts moving lower. One of the reasons for the sleepy behaviour in the mustard market is that export volumes are still in the slower period of the year. And this year, export performance has mostly been below average. The latest StatsCan data from January shows only 8,300 tonnes exported, a slight improvement over December but still underwhelming. The US remains the largest customer taking just over 4,000 tonnes. Halfway through 16/17, the pace to the US is only a couple of thousand tonnes behind the -year average. Exports to Europe are trailing the average by about 5,000 tonnes while Asian purchases are slightly above average. So far, we re not seeing many signs that demand is going to pick up significantly and revive the 16/17 market. Even if US processors need more mustard heading into the higher consumption months, they have a larger 16 domestic crop to fill that demand.

8 Page 8 March 22, 17 Special Crops Update Some improvement is possible in terms of European demand, although the signals are a little nebulous. Mustard prices in Ukraine have strengthened recently and if they actually reflect a tighter Black Sea supply situation, it could indicate the potential for a little more European demand shifting to Canadian mustard. A bulk shipment of mustard typically moves to Europe through Thunder Bay around the time of the Seaway reopening. If larger volumes are needed this year, that should start to show up soon in the form of stronger bids, especially for brown and possibly yellow mustard. We recently raised our estimate of 17 Canadian mustard plantings a bit, now at 350,000 acres. That s still one-third lower than last year but not exceptionally small. At this stage of the year, our production forecast for 17/18 is based on the 5-year average yield (of all classes combined) at 965 pounds per acre, well below last year s performance. If so, 17 mustard production would drop 85,000 tonnes from last year. Of course, there will be different shifts for the various mustard classes. Based on differing price performance for the individual types, we re forecasting the largest decline will show up in oriental mustard acreage, followed closely by yellow. Because of brown mustard s relatively stronger bids, we re actually forecasting a small increase in seeded area. When we apply the 5-year average yields for each individual class along with typical abandonment, the oriental mustard crop would be 30,000 tonnes, 48% smaller than last year. Yellow mustard production would be 90,000 tonnes, % less than 16 and brown mustard production would be just under 30,000 tonnes, % larger than last year. Old-crop bids for all three classes of mustard won t show much life, although brown could see an occasional bump as buyers look to fill individual sales. Newcrop bids haven t moved much either, a signal that buyers aren t too concerned about reduced 17 acreage. Unless there s a production problem in western Canada, only modest gains are likely for 17/18.

9 LeftField Special Crops Update Page 9 90-Day Price Probability Mustard Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (1C) Under $28 15% $28 - $29 30% $29 - $30 % Over $30 15% Brown (1C) Under $30 % $30 - $33 25% $33 - $36 45% Over $36 % Oriental (1C) Under $28 % $28 - $29 45% $29 - $30 25% Over $30 % Modest Gains Possible for Canaryseed Even though canaryseed bids haven t shown any strength for quite some time, the latest StatsCan export data for January has a couple of optimistic signals. In January, canaryseed exports of 11,300 tonnes were above average for only the second time this year, not bad considering January is the low point of the year. We had heard rumblings that Mexican demand was softer and that certainly showed up in the January totals, partly because of stronger purchases in December. While Mexico was still the largest single buyer in January, the larger total was due to increased purchases by Spain and Indonesia. We had been waiting for Indonesia (Canada s third largest buyer the last two years) to return to the market after starting the year slowly. It wasn t too much of a concern as ndonesian purchases are typically heavier in the second half of the marketing year and that same pattern may be happening in 16/17. If so, that provides a little more positive outlook for the rest of the year. With the seasonal export highs still ahead, our full-year export forecast of 1,000 tonnes appears quite achievable. That s in spite of year-todate exports of 67,000 tonnes that are trailing last year s pace of 75,000 tonnes. Behaviour of canaryseed bids in western Canada reflects a comfortable supply situation. Oldcrop prices seem to have found a bottom right around $ per cwt. That s not surprising, as farmers become reluctant to let canaryseed go below that level. The small move off the lows could gain a little more yet when additional canaryseed needs to be sourced for the larger export

10 Page March 22, 17 Special Crops Update volumes expected in April and May. Even so, we doubt that will turn into a full-scale rally as farmers will also use the small bumps as selling opportunities. New-crop canaryseed bids have moved higher, but we advise some caution when viewing the chart below. The limited number of bids, especially earlier this winter, made those late 16 prices a little patchy. The more recent bids closer to $18 per cwt are a more accurate reflection of the overall market. Those $18 new-crop bids won t stir up a whole lot of interest in growing canaryseed in 17. As a result, we recently trimmed our seeded area projection a little further to 225,000 acres, 15% less than last year. With average yields, 17 production would drop roughly -25,000 tonnes and would tighten supplies somewhat. But unless the crop runs into serious trouble, it wouldn t be enough to trigger that windfall rally many canaryseed growers look for. Some moderate strength could be seen in the weeks and months ahead in old-crop canaryseed bids, but those gains will likely be local and sporadic. Not much strength is expected in new-crop bids but they should start to converge with old-crop values later in spring. 90-Day Price Probability Canaryseed Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability 1C Under $ % $ - $22 45% $22 - $24 30% Over $24 5% We encourage you to call or with questions or comments! ~ or info@leftfieldcr.com ~ This material is intended for the clients of LeftField Commodity Research. We don t have a team of lawyers, but we simply ask that you don t forward it or copy it without asking us. It s our livelihood. The fine print: We do our best to provide accurate information in this newsletter but we don t guarantee its accuracy nor accept liability for any errors. This newsletter provides guidance but does not make specific marketing recommendations.

11 Special Crop Bid Sheet Posted bids from Western Canadian buyers This week Last week Wkly 4 Weeks Min Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago Peas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu #2 Yellow #2 Green Feed n/a #2 Maple Lentils (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt #2 Lg Green #2 Med Green #2 Sm Green #2 Fr Green n/a #2 Sm Red Chickpeas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Kabuli 8-9 mm Desi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Flax (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu Brown Yellow n/a Mustard (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Yellow Brown Oriental Canaryseed (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Canaryseed Posted bids from US Northern Plains and PNW buyers This week Last week Wkly 4 Weeks Min Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago Peas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu #2 Yellow #2 Green Feed n/a Lentils (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Lg Green n/a Med Green Sm Green n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Pardina n/a Red Dry Beans (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Pinto Black Navy n/a Chickpeas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt Sm Kabuli n/a Lg Kabuli n/a Flax (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu Brown Yellow n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Sunflowers (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt NuSun HO Sun n/a Oil Birdfood n/a Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt White Millet Red Millet n/a Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu Milo n/a

12 Global Price Indications Note: Prices shown are indications only and may not be actual traded values. All values in US$ per tonne This week Week Ago 4 Wks Ago Year Ago Type Location Flax Seed Type Location Peas Grower #2 Yellow Edmonton C Saskatoon #1 Green Saskatoon C Wpg, MB #1 Yellow Saskatoon #1 RedWing, MN Green N Dakota Golden N Dakota Yellow N Dakota Linseed NW Europe Dun Adelaide Linseed Ukraine Wholesale Linseed FOB Russia Cdn Yellow Mumbai Linseed Tianjin (offer) Cdn Green Kolkatta Products Green Bogota Meal Minn Yellow FOB Ukraine Meal FOB Rhine Russian Yel Karachi Oil Minn, MN 1,521 1,521 1,521 1,521 Feed Netherlands Oil Rotterdam Feed Rouen Sunflowers Yellow China port Seed Green China port Oilseed Saskatoon Lentils Oilseed Enderlin, ND Grower Oil NuSun Kansas Lg Grn Saskatoon ,093 1,264 Oilseed FOB Ukraine Sm Grn Saskatoon ,023 1,037 Oilseed NW Europe Red Saskatoon Birdseed US elev Red (Nugget) Adelaide Confection Buenos Aires Med Grn US Elev Avg ,014 Confection FOB Russia Red US Elev Avg ,014 Products Wholesale Meal ND/SD/MN Lg Grn Mexico City 1,717 1,627 1,678 1,535 RBWD NuSun Oi Dakotas 1,190 1,190 1,190 1,168 Green Bogota 1,636 1,627 1,688 1,747 Oil Rotterdam Green Mersin 1,546 1,632 1,612 1,646 Oil Ukraine Sm Grn Spain 1,149 1,128 1,135 1,347 Mustard Red (retail) Egypt 1,667 1,700 1,690 - Brown S'toon, SK Red Mersin ,230 Yellow S'toon, SK Red Indore Oriental S'toon, SK Cdn Red Karachi Ind Yellow NW Europe 1,268 1,268 1,243 1,255 Products Ind Brown NW Europe Split Red Mersin ,029 1,267 White Ukraine Football Red Mersin ,066 1,329 White FOB Russia Split Yellow Mersin 1,430 1,559 1,555 1,646 Yellow Chennai, India NULL NULL Black Chennai, India NULL NULL Chickpeas Dry Beans Grower Pinto N Dakota mm Kabuli Saskatoon Black N Dakota mm Kabuli ID/WA Pea Bean N Dakota Desi Saskatoon Grt Northern NE / CO Desi Brisbane Negro Mexico City Wholesale Pinto Mexico City 1,041 1, mm Kabuli Mersin 1,3 1,837 1,002 1,0 Peruano Mexico City 1,717 1,729 1,727 1,706 8mm Mersin 1,880 1,874 2,2 1,169 Black Buenos Aires 1,0 1,0 1,0 5 9mm Mersin 2,2 2,224 2,296 1,503 Lg alubia Buenos Aires 1,0 1,0 1, mm Mersin - 2,387 2,806 1,682 Sm alubia Buenos Aires Lg Garbanzo Mexico City 1,873 1,780 1,727 1,422 Red Buenos Aires Sm Kabuli Spain Carioca (8.5) Brazil ,002 Chana Jaipur Preto Extra Brazil Round White Ethiopia Birdseed Blackeye Colombia 1,6 1,1 1,132 1,318 Canaryseed Saskatoon Nima Calima Colombia 1,174 1,167 1,245 2,014 Argentina White Mersin 1,391 1,323 1,551 1,083 Spain #N/A #N/A #N/A - Romano Mersin 1,645 1,784 1,457 1,545 White Millet Dakotas Faba (retail) Egypt Red Millet Dakotas Faba Adelaide Niger Seed Mumbai ,017 1,377 Faba Rouen Currency US$/Cdn$ US$/Tlira US$/Euro US$/AU$ US$/IN Rupee US$/Arg Peso This week Week Ago 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

13 CGC Weekly Handling Statistics Includes only bulk movement through licensed facilities (thousand tonnes) Grain Shipping Week: 32 Week ending: March 12, 17 Flax Peas Lentils Chickpeas Canaryseed Mustard Dry Beans Farm Deliveries Current Last week Year-to-date Last YTD Shipments Current Last week Year-to-date Last YTD Exports Current Last week Year-to-date Last YTD Visible Stocks Primary & Proc Terminal In-transit Total Last week Last yr total Unfortunately, the Indian gov't has decided to stop reporting weekly imports. We will be posting monthly imports as we receive them, but data will be less timely. India Weekly Pulse Imports (tonnes) Week ending: November 27, 16 Green Peas Chana Lentils Tur Yellow Peas Kidney Beans Other Current week 77,851 1,949 48,286 28,234 44,288 1,547 8,973 Last week 212,587 2,166 46,013 19,833 32, ,924 Year-to-date 1,890, , , ,6 463,811 70, ,419 Prior YTD 1,032,593 1, , ,876 3,091 64, ,949 Full year 15/16 1,671, ,486 1,084,172 1,157, ,533 97,5 698,171 Market year (Apr-Mar)

14 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 4 of 9 CDN$ per bushel Field Pea Prices - Saskatchewan Cents per pound Lentil Prices - Saskatchewan Feed peas Green edibles Yellow edibles Large Green Small Green Red Canadian Field Pea Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's 3,730 3,325 3,985 3,680 4,239 4, Harvested Acres, 000' 3,645 3,285 3,923 3,632 4,166 4,5 Yield (bu/acre) Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production 3,341 3,961 3,8 3,1 4,836 4,525 Imports Total Supply 3,622 4,160 4,170 3,901 5,032 4,817 Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports 2,650 2,781 3,091 2,716 3,600 3,0 Total Disposition 3,448 3,831 3,486 3,724 4,750 4,275 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 5.0% 8.6% 19.6% 4.7% 5.9% 12.7% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Canadian Lentil Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's 2,515 2,7 3,1 4,035 5,860 4,850 Harvested Acres, 000' 2,481 2,695 3,008 3,926 5,7 4,747 Yield (lbs/acre) 1,367 1,850 1,456 1,427 1,248 1,469 Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production 1,538 2,262 1,987 2,541 3,248 3,164 Imports Total Supply 2,7 2,738 2,786 2,921 3,347 3,616 Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports 1,638 1,753 2,229 2,146 2,250 2,350 Total Disposition 1,9 1,952 2,421 2,848 2,915 3,125 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 24% % 5% 5% 5% 5% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Cents per pound Chickpea Prices - Saskatchewan Cents per pound Canaryseed Price - Saskatchewan Desi Kabuli 9mm Canadian Chickpea Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's Harvested Acres, 000' Yield (lbs/acre) 1,797 2,097 1,664 1,600 1,658 1,763 Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 43% 131% 99% 9% 13% 17% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Canadian Canaryseed Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's Harvested Acres, 000's Yield (lbs/acre) 1,015 1,375 1,039 1,0 1,321 1,158 Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 43% 23% 22% 44% 49% 28% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research

15 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 5 of 9 C$ per tonne Flax Price - Manitoba & Saskatchewan Cents per pound Oil Sunflower Price - Saskatchewan Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Canadian Flax Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's 980 1,070 1,585 1, ,250 Harvested Acres, 000' 950 1,043 1,534 1, ,197 Yield (bu/acre) Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply , Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 12% 13% 11% 35% 14% 9% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Canadian Sunflower Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's Harvested Acres, 000' Yield (lbs/ac) 1,955 1,683 1,684 1,685 1,6 1,729 Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 16% % 12% 39% 41% 34% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Cents per pound Mustard Prices - Saskatchewan US$ per cwt North Dakota Dry Bean Producer Bids Yellow Mustard Brown Mustard Oriental Mustard Pinto Black Pea Bean Canadian Mustard Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's Harvested Acres, 000' Yield (lbs/acre) 951 1, , Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed Other Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 36% 29% 38% 18% 55% 46% Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold Canadian Dry Bean Supply & Disposition 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Seeded Acres, 000's Harvested Acres, 000' Yield (lbs/acre) 1,905 2,178 2,034 2,097 2,079 2,058 Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In Production Imports Total Supply Disposition ('000 tonnes) Total Domestic Exports Total Disposition Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 7.3% 7.9% 5.0% 7.3% 4.3% 6.5% Source: StatsCan & AgCan with LeftField projections in bold Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research

16 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 6 of 9 Thousand tonnes 2,800 2,0 2,000 1,600 1,0 800 Cumulative Licensed Pea Exports Not including containers and exports through unlicensed facilities. Thousand tonnes 3, 3,000 2, 2,000 1, 1,000 Cumulative Pea Farm Deliveries /17 15/16 5-Yr Avg /17 15/16 5-Yr Avg Thousand tonnes Canadian Field Pea Visible Stocks Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator -Yr Avg Indian Rupees per Quintal Yellow Pea Spot Prices - Mumbai, India CDN$ per CWT Green Pea Grower Prices CDN$ per CWT Yellow Pea Grower Prices ID/WA Sask NDak ID/WA Sask NDak 80 Green Lentil Grower Prices 8,000 Red Lentil Spot Price - India CDN$ per CWT Rupees per quintal 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Brewer ID/WA Lg Grn SK Richlea NDak Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research

17 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 7 of Whole Lentil Prices - Mersin, Turkey 6.50 Processed Lentil Prices - Mersin Turkish Lira per kg Turkish Lira per kg Whole Red Whole Green Split Red Red Football Split Yellow Rupees per quintal 12,000 11,000,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Chana (Desi) Price - Jaipur Turkish Lira per kg Kabuli Chickpea Prices - Mersin 7 mm 8 mm 9 mm mm Rupees per tonne 55,000 50,000 45,000,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Mustard Spot Price - Jaipur, India US$ per cwt Average US Birdseed Sunflower Bid US$ per cwt US Oil Sunflower Prices US$ per tonne Global Sunseed Values ND/MN Composite Great Plains Composite CIF ARAG Offer Kansas NuSun Bid FOB Argentina Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research

18 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 8 of 9 0 Cumulative Licensed Flax Exports 700 Weekly Flax Farm Deliveries Thousand tonnes Thousand tonnes 16/17 15/16 5-Yr Avg 16/17 15/16 -Yr Avg 1 Canadian Flax Visible Stocks 18 Red Wing, MN Daily Flax Bid 0 16 Thousand tonnes US$ per bushel Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator 5-Yr Avg US$ per tonne Linseed CIF NW Europe US$ per ton Minneapolis-Duluth Linseed Meal Price US$ per tonne Veg Meal Prices NW Europe US$ per tonne 1,0 1,300 1,0 1,0 1, Veg Oil Prices NW Europe Soy Meal Rape Meal Lin Meal Rape oil Sun oil Lin oil Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research

19 LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts 3/22/17 9 of 9 Mexico Wholesale Bean Prices Argentine Dry Bean Prices US$ per cwt US$ per tonne Garbancillo Peruano Black Pinto Sm wht Med wht Lg wht Black Red US$ per C$ US Dollars per Cdn Dollar Rupees per dollar Indian Rupees per Cdn & US Dollar Vs US dollar Vs Cdn dollar Turkish Lira per Cdn & US Dollar Euros per Cdn & US Dollar Turkish Lira per dollar Euros per dollar US dollar Cdn dollar US dollar Cdn dollar 70 Selected Bulk Ocean Freight 900 Container Freight Indices US$ per tonne Composite Rate Index PNW-Jpn (Panamax) St Law-Rott (Handy) Duluth-Rott Howe Robinson ConTex Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright 16 by LeftField Commodity Research