Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation. Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets. 27 September 2018

Transcription

1 Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets 27 September 2018

2 1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 2

3 Sun, rape & soy (million tonnes) ALL (miliion tonnes) World oilseeds production 2018/19 changes (m/m): Total Oilseeds: 605 m t Soybeans: 369 m t Rapeseed: 72 m t Sunflower: 50 m t / / / / /18 (est) 2018/19 (proj) 0 Sunflower Rapeseed Soybeans All (7 crops) Source: USDA 3

4 World soya: USDA 150 M t World Ending Stocks of which US World Production World Consumption M t est proj. Source: USDA September report 60 4

5 World Oilseeds 2018/19: key messages Global oilseed production for 2018/19 is up again from last month to a record 605 m t with a 2.2 m t increase for soyabean production, only partly offset by lower global rapeseed and sunflower seed output. Global soyabean supply and demand forecast includes record production, sharply exceeding consumption. Accordingly, stocks are expected to rise to a new high Rapeseed production is again slightly reduced from last month and down 4 % from last year. Sunflowerseed production forecast is at 50 m t, up 5% from last year. 5

6 World oilseeds: Export prices (fob) Export prices FOB 25 sept 2018 m/m variation y/y variation /t $/t /t $/t /t $/t Argentina - Up River % 4% 2% 2% soybeans Brazil - Paranagua % 6% 5% 5% US Gulf % -2% -16% -16% Ukraine % -4% 4% 4% Australia % -1% -5% -5% rapeseed Canada % 0% -4% -4% EU (Rouen) % 0% -2% -2% Ukraine % -1% -1% 0% sunflower EU (Bordeaux) % -3% -4% -4% Ukraine % -3% -4% -4% 6

7 1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 7

8 EU Oilseeds EU OILSEEDS AREA AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million ha trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Rapeseed Sunflower Soja TOTAL Sources : EC - DG AGRI EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimm. Rapeseed Sunflower Soja TOTAL Sources : EC - DG AGRI 8

9 EU Oilseeds (incl. Linseed) 9

10 EU rapeseed 10

11 EU rapeseed (MS) Rapeseed Production AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed TOTAL EU France Germany Poland UK Czech Republic Romania Others

12 EU Oilseeds 2018/19: key messages Area stable at around 12 million hectares, with an increase for rapeseed, more or less unchanged for sunflower and a decrease for soyabeans (at a record level last marketing year) EU production forecast was slightly increased from last month to 32.6 million tonnes mainly due to a revision for the rapeseed production, now seen at 19.7 million tonnes, still about 9% below the five year trimmed average. 12

13 EU Protein crops EU PROTEIN CROPS AREA AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million ha trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Field peas Broad beans Sweet lupins TOTAL Sources : EC - DG AGRI EU PROTEIN CROPS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Field peas Broad beans Sweet lupins TOTAL Sources : EC - DG AGRI 13

14 Updated report on Soya Trade New update available on the CROPS MARKET OBSERVATORY website: ulture/marketobservatory/crops/oilseeds -protein-crops/soytrade_en 14

15 1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 15

16 EU oilseeds balance sheet OILSEED 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Beginning stocks Usable production Area (thousand ha) Yield (tonnes/ha) Imports (from third countries) Total supply Domestic use of which crushing Exports (to third countries) Total use Ending stocks Change in stocks

17 EU oilmeals balance sheet OILSEED MEAL 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Beginning stocks Usable production Imports (from third countries) Total supply Domestic use Exports (to third countries) Total use Ending stocks Change in stocks

18 EU vegetable oils balance sheet VEGETABLE OILS 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Palm TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Palm TOTAL Beginning stocks Usable production Imports (from third countries) Total supply Domestic use Exports (to third countries) Total use Ending stocks Change in stocks

19 Conclusions World Oilseeds: ample supplies for global oilseeds in the 2018/19 marketing year with a record soyabean output that exceeds consumption. Prices: South American soyabean prices firmed, while US prices further declined. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed prices eased. EU Market: EU oilseed production forecast was revised up from last month to 32.3 million tonnes due to an increase in rapeseed production. 19

20 Thank you for your attention! Market data the for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops are available at the EU Crops Market Observatory.