Mintec Market Report July 2016

Transcription

1 Potato planted area for 2016/17 is projected to increase for the largest five producers in the EU. EU deadweight pork prices have continued to increase for the third consecutive month, driven by high exports to China. Crude oil prices have fallen due to uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Mintec Market Report July 2016

2 Mintec Market Report July UP DOWN Cherry Tomatoes (DE) +36% Watermelon (ES) -24% Grapes (UK) +26% Pepper (EU) -21% Cotton (CN) +19% Peach (EU) -18% Paddy rice (IT) +18% Durum wheat (IT) -16% Butter (PL) +17% Petrol (EU) -14% Pork (NL) +12% Egg (DE) -8% All percentage changes in this report refer to month-on-month price changes. Softs... Arabica coffee prices rose on ICE US (+7%) driven by concerns over the quality of the new crop in Brazil due to heavy rainfall, which disrupted the harvest, and a risk of isolated frosts in the southern part of the coffee belt. Robusta coffee prices rose on London ICE (+8%) as production from Vietnam is forecast to fall 7% y-o-y. Sugar prices rose on both London ICE (+2%) and ICE US (+1%) due to an increase in consumption, which has been steadily increasing y-o-y. The increase in consumption will see ending stocks for 2016/17 fall to the lowest level in six years at 40.5m tonnes, down 13% y-o-y. Tea prices rose in Sri Lanka (+13%) and Kenya (+1%) but fell in India (-3%). Cocoa bean prices fell on ICE US (-6%) but rose on London ICE (+4%). Large volumes of cocoa beans continue to be rejected at ports in the Ivory Coast due to poor quality, which has caused a reduction in exports. Both cocoa butter (+7%) and powder (+4%) rose in the UK. EU molasses prices remained stable (0%). Oils and fats... Soyabean oil prices fell on CBOT US (-3%) due to abundant domestic supply, but rose in Rotterdam (+2%) and Argentina (+2%) due to the slowdown of South American crushing and exports. Rapeseed oil prices rose in Rotterdam (+3%) and Canada (+1%) due to lower than expected production of rapeseed in 2016/17. Palm oil prices fell in Indonesia (-6%), Rotterdam (-3%) and Malaysia (-1%) due to lower demand caused by increased prices earlier this year. Palm kernel oil prices fell in Malaysia (- 5%) and Rotterdam (-4%) but remained stable in Indonesia (0%). Coconut oil prices fell in Rotterdam (- 3%) and the Philippines (-2%). Sunflower oil prices fell in Rotterdam (-7%), Argentina (-2%), Ukraine (- 1%) and Russia (-1%) due to increased production forecasts for 2016/17. Extra virgin olive oil prices rose in Spain (+4%), but remained stable in Italy (0%). Lampante olive oil prices also rose in Spain (+5%). Linseed oil prices rose in Argentina (+2%).

3 Mintec Market Report July Grains Maize prices rose in Brazil (+17%) but fell on CBOT US (-14%), Euronext Paris (-6%), in Argentina (-6%) and in Germany (-4%). Global maize production is forecast to rise to 1.0bn tonnes in 2016/17, with an increase of 5% y-o-y. Feed wheat prices rose in the Netherlands (+9%) and on ICE EU (+4%), but fell in Hungary (-8%) and remained stable in Finland (0%). Milling wheat prices fell on ASX Sydney (-11%), in Canada (-8%), on CBOT US (-7%) and Euronext Paris (-1%), but rose in both the UK (+10%) and Germany (+5%). Durum wheat prices fell on ICE Canada (-9%) and in Italy (-16%). Paddy rice prices rose in Italy (+18%), but fell on CBOT US (-1%) and in Vietnam (-1%), prices remained stable in Thailand (0%). Basmati rice prices rose in both Pakistan (+1%) and India (+1%). Thai fragrant rice fell in both Thailand (-2%) and Vietnam (-1%). Feed barley prices fell in Canada (-13%) and Australia (-8%) but rose in Germany (+5%) and France (+2%). Oats prices fell on CBOT US (-4%) and in Finland (-2%). Rye prices fell in Germany (- 1%). Ingredients Expectations of a large 2016/17 crop in California, the main almond producer, drove almond prices down (-5%) in the US. US almond production is forecast to rise by 8% y-o-y in 2016/17. In Spain, almond prices fell (-7%). Turkish prices for hazelnuts were up (+15%), as the production for the new 2016/17 season is projected to decline from last year. Peanut prices rose sharply on average (+15%) in the EU, influenced by harvest delays in Argentina. For dried fruit, Turkish dried apricot prices rose slightly (+1%), as did sultanas (+2%) but raisins remained steady (+0%). US raisins were down (-5%). Spice prices fell across South East Asia with white pepper (-6%) and black pepper (-1%) both declining. In India, cardamoms (+10%) and cumin seed (+8%) prices rose but chilli (0%) and ginger (0%) remained unchanged. Chilli prices remain at a very high level due to limited supplies this year. On the NCDEX, coriander (+9%) and turmeric (+3%) prices rose. In Germany, prices were up for poppy seeds (+9%) and sesame seeds (+3%). Fruit Apple prices were up (+5%) on average in the EU last month. Increases were seen for Germany (+16%); UK prices remained steady (0%). Pear prices fell slightly (-1%) on average in the EU, with declines seen in Spain (-4%); prices remained unchanged in the UK (0%). Prices for summer fruits continued to fall seasonally last month. In the UK, prices for Galia melons (-21%), watermelons (-19%) and Honeydew melons (-10%) all fell. Spanish watermelons (-24%) were also down but Galias remained unchanged (0%). Peach prices were down (-18%) on average in the EU, with nectarine prices also falling (-18%). In the UK, prices for grapes (+26%) rose on average, while Spanish grapes were up (+50%). Prices for strawberries increased (+37%) on average across the EU. Apple juice prices in China were steady last month (0%). Frozen concentrated orange juice prices increased on ICE US (+9%). Lower orange concentrate supplies from major producers, Brazil and the US, are currently putting global markets under pressure.

4 Mintec Market Report July Vegetables Potato prices fell on average across the EU (-3%). Potato planted area for 2016/17 is projected to increase for the largest five producers in the EU however, yields have been revised down in July from the previous estimate, due to adverse weather in parts of EU. Prices increased for round tomatoes in Spain (+16%). In the UK, prices for salad, beef, cherry and plum tomato varieties rose (+33%) on average last month. In Germany, cherry tomatoes (+36%) were also up. Lettuce prices rose on average across the EU (+16%). Iceberg lettuce prices rose in Germany (+36%) and Spain (+13%). Romaine lettuce fell in Spain (-5%) but was stable in the UK (0%). Round lettuce prices fell in France (-24%), but remained stable in the UK (0%). Pepper prices were down on average across the EU (-21%). Celery prices declined in Germany (-3%). Onion prices fell in Poland (-16%) and Spain (-10%) but remained unchanged in the UK (0%). In France, onion prices were up (+12%). EU carrot prices decreased (-6%) on average. Meat and poultry Deadweight beef prices increased in Australia (+10%) for the third consecutive month, due to a smaller cattle herd and sustained high exports to the US. Beef prices increased in both Brazil (+4%) and Uruguay (+2%), due to high exports from Brazil and falling production levels in Uruguay. EU deadweight beef prices fell (-2%) in July with prices falling in Ireland (-5%) and the UK (-3%), whilst prices remained unchanged in Belgium (0%) and Germany (0%). Lamb deadweight prices have started to increase in the EU (+1%), due to a seasonal fall in production. Lamb prices increased in France (+5%), the UK (+2%) however, remained stable in Ireland (0%), but fell in Germany (-1%). However, lamb prices fell in New Zealand (-2%). EU deadweight pork prices have continued to increase on average (+8%) for the third consecutive month, with the largest being the Netherlands (+12%), Spain (+11%), France (+10%), Germany (+9), Belgium (+8%) and the UK (+5%), due to higher exports to China. Pork deadweight prices continued to fall in the US for the second consecutive month (-10%), due to a large pig inventory. EU deadweight chicken prices fell (-1%), with prices falling in Italy (-8%), the UK (-6%), whilst prices increased in Poland (+7%). Strong exports and low domestic maize supplies have increased Brazilian chicken prices (+4%). Milk and dairy On average EU butter prices increased (+12%) in July. Increases were seen in Poland (+17%), the UK (+16%), France (+12%), Germany (+8%) and the Netherlands (+5%), driven by high global demand, despite increased EU butter production. Butter prices also rose in the US (+11%) and remained stable in New Zealand (0%). EU SMP prices were up (+2%), with increases seen in France (+3%), Germany (+2%), the Netherlands (+2%) and Belgium (+1%). EU WMP prices in the EU increased on average (+3%), with rises seen in Germany (+10%) and Belgium (+4%), driven increased export demand. New Zealand SMP prices remained stable (0%), but New Zealand WMP prices decreased (-4%) driven by falling WMP exports. Cheddar prices rose in the US (+10%). Further cheddar price increases were also seen in the UK (+8%) as a result of higher UK exports outside the EU. New Zealand cheddar prices remained stable (0%). EU egg prices remained stable (0%) however decreases were seen in the Czech Republic (-10%), Germany (-8%), Greece (-7%), Poland (-6%) and Bulgaria (-4%), due to falling feed costs and increased production. EU processed egg prices increased (+2%), with liquid yolk and whole liquid egg prices remaining stable (0%) and liquid white fell (-5%).

5 Mintec Market Report July Chemicals and plastics European petrochemical prices mostly increased, with benzene (+7%), propylene (+3%), styrene (+2%), butadiene (+2%), paraxylene (+1%) all going up, while toluene (-6%) and ethylene (-1%) decreased and orthoxylene (0%) and ethylene glycol (0%) remained stable. Despite the rise in feedstock cost, European LLDPE (-8%), PS (-7%), LDPE (-6%), PP (-5%), HDPE (-4%) and PET (-2%) prices all fell, due to high supply and low demand, but PVC (0%) prices remained stable. In China, butadiene (+16%) prices rose due to low supply, while ethylene (0%) remained stable. Plastic prices in China also rose with LDPE (+4%), PVC (+4%), LLDPE (+3%), HDPE (+1%) all going up, but PET (-1%) decreased. In the US fertiliser market, urea (-8%) and DAP (-1%) prices fell due to high global supply, while phosphoric acid rose (+1%). Pulp and paper Global softwood pulp supply increased by 1 day m-o-m to 28 days of supply, while hardwood pulp declined by 4 days to 41 days of supply in June. Shipments of softwood pulp fell 2.6% to 1.94m tonnes, while hardwood pulp increased by 9.1% to 2.17m tonnes. Prices of European NBSK rose (+2%), despite recent increase in stocks, the levels are still considered low in relation to consumption. BHK prices declined (-2%), as the stocks, despite declining, remained on the level considered above balanced. Supported by feedstock NBSK price rise, kraftliner price have also rose (+1%). Testliner (-1%) and fluting (-1%) prices have both declined. European newsprint prices declined as well (-1%). NBSK pulp prices were (+1%) higher than a month ago in China, while BHK remained stable (0%). NBSK in the US increased (+1%). Energy Light sweet crude oil prices on NYMEX US (-7%) and Brent crude oil prices on ICE London (-6%) both fell, due to uncertainty over the global economic outlook including concerns over the UK s vote to leave the EU, and a stronger USD. EU diesel (-8%) and US diesel (-7%) both fell to their lowest level in over two months due to high stock levels and falling demand. US petrol (-18%) and EU petrol (-14%) also fell due to plentiful supplies. Gas oil prices on ICE fell (-6%). Natural gas prices on NYMEX US (-2%) fell due to high stock levels, which are 14% up y-o-y. However, natural gas prices on ICE London (+9%) rose due to higher demand both locally and in Europe. The Bacton terminal NBP (0%) remained steady. Coal prices rose in the US (+1%) and the EU (+3%) due to production cuts, supply disruptions and higher demand.

6 Mintec Market Report July Metals Base metal prices have generally risen on LME. Copper prices were up on both NYMEX US (+6%) and LME (+5%). Nickel prices on LME rose (+13%) as did zinc (+9%), lead (+7%) and tin (+3%). Aluminium prices fell on LME (-1%) but rose on SHFE China (+1%). Stainless steel scrap rose in the EU (+3%), iron scrap prices remained stable in the UK (0%) as did aluminium scrap (0%). Global cold rolled (CR) steel coil prices continue to fall, with declines in the Black Sea (-6%), the EU (-5%), China (-2%) and the US (- 2%). Hot rolled (HR) coil prices also fell in the US (-3%), the Black Sea (-2%) and in China (-2%). Stainless steel coil prices fell in the EU (-2%), but rose in China (+2%). Others Cotton CN (+19%), Rubber RSS TH (+10%), Wool AU (+7%), Polyester yarn CN (+5%), Viscose PK (-3%).

7 Mintec Market Report July Company profile Mintec Limited Mintec has a long and successful history of working in partnership with sales, purchasing and supply chain professionals, primarily in the retail, manufacturing and food service sectors. We deliver unique understanding and valuable insight into a vast range of worldwide commodity and raw materials markets. Using innovative technology and a highly experienced and knowledgeable team of specialists, we have the proven ability to provide independent insight and trusted, authoritative data, and to translate this into expert analysis. This expertise helps the world s most prestigious brands to make the intelligent, informed decisions needed to reduce costs, manage risks and realise commercial opportunities in order to reach their business objectives. Mintec Ltd 9 The Courtyard, Glory Park Wooburn Green High Wycombe Bucks HP10 0DG United Kingdom t: +44 (0) e: support@mintecglobal.com w: All Rights Reserved Mintec Ltd has endeavoured to ensure that Mintec Ltd has the rights to use all images, company names and information contained within these documents. All materials contained in these documents are protected by copyright laws, and may not be reproduced, republished, distributed or otherwise exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of Mintec Ltd. You may utilise this information for your own personal and commercial use only, without altering or removing any trademark, copyright or other notice from such material.