Cereals, Oilseeds and Protein Crops. Market Situation. CROPS Market Observatory 12 th April 2018

Transcription

1 Cereals, Oilseeds and Protein Crops Market Situation CROPS Market Observatory 12 th April 2018

2 CONTENTS EU market situation Cereals Oilseeds Protein crops

3 Cereals

4 EU Soft Wheat Exports and Imports (July-December) including flour in grain equivalent

5 EU Soft Wheat Export Origins (July December) DE 9% LV 10% PL 5% BG 3% Others 7% 11.4m t. -19% FR 32% PL 6% DE 17% BG 5% Others 8% 14.0m t. FR 34% LT 11% RO 23% (Thousand tons) FR % RO % LT % LV % DE % PL % BG % Others % LV 4% LT 8% RO 18%

6 EU Soft Wheat Export Destinations (July December) Algeria 21% Algeria 20% Others 43% 11.4m t. Jordan 4% -19% Nigeria 4% Turkey 5% Egypt 8% Saudi Arabia 15% (Thousand tons) Nigeria 2% Jordan 2% Turkey 1% Others 57% Algeria % Saudi Arabia % Egypt % Turkey % Nigeria % Jordan % Others % 14.0m t. Saudi Arabia 10% Egypt 8%

7 25 France Soft Wheat Exports Intra-Eu vs Extra-Eu Whole Marketing Year 10 First 6 months of Marketing Year Source: COMEXT Extra_EU28 Intra_EU28

8 EU Barley Exports and Imports (July-December) including malt in grain equivalent

9 EU Barley Export Origins (July December) EE 5% BE 10% Others 17% DE 17% 4.2m t. -26% RO 19% FR 32% Others 31% EE 2% BE 10% 5.6m t. DE 11% FR 29% RO 17% (Thousand tons) FR % RO % DE % BE % EE % Others %

10 EU Barley Export Destinations (July December) Others 44% 4.2m t. -26% Saudi Arabia 29% Iran 8% China Morocco 5% Tunisia 4% Japan 5% 5% (Thousand tons) Others 51% Saudi Arabia % Iran % China % Tunisia % Japan % Morocco % Others % 5.6m t. Morocco 3% Japan 3% Saudi Arabia 28% China 9% Iran 3% Tunisia 3%

11 million tonnes EU Durum Wheat Exports and Imports (July-December) including flour in grain equivalent 1 EXPORTS IMPORTS Trade balance First 6 months of Marketing Year (July - December) Source: EUROSTAT, Comext extraction at 22/02/2018

12 EU Durum Wheat Import Destinations (July December) NL 5% UK 4% FR 4% Others 8% 1.0m t. -0% IT 79% NL 1% UK 0% Others 22% 1.0m t. IT 77% (Thousand tons) IT % NL % UK % FR % Others %

13 Others 3% Russia 6% EU Durum Wheat Import Origins (July December) Iran 3% Kazakhstan 2% Australia 1% Russia 1% Others 17% Kazakhstan 12% Australia 14% 1.0m t. -0% Canada 47% United States 17% 1.0m t. Canada 62% United States 15% (Thousand tons) Canada % United States % Australia % Kazakhstan % Russia % Iran 0 29 Others %

14 EU Maize Exports and Imports (July-December)

15 EU Maize Import Destinations (July December) UK 6% IT 9% IE 5% PT 10% Others 11% 7.9m t. +66% NL 21% ES 38% UK 6% IT 14% IE 4% PT 11% Others 9% 4.8m t. NL 19% ES 37% (Thousand tons) ES % NL % PT % IT % UK % IE % Others %

16 EU Maize Import Origins (July December) Canada 5% United States 5% Ukraine 30% Others 7% 7.9m t. +66% Brazil 53% Canada 7% United States 6% Others 15% 4.8m t. Brazil 16% Ukraine 56% (Thousand tons) Brazil % Ukraine % United States % Canada % Others %

17 EU Cereals Trade Exports: "lower than expected" EU wheat exports What about competitiveness of EU wheat on the global market? (versus Black Sea, Argentina and other origins) Is quality of EU wheat still a driver on global market? Imports: "higher than expected" EU maize imports What about competitiveness of EU maize vs imported maize? (to supply domestic EU demand versus Black Sea, Brazil and other origins)

18 EU cereals production 2018/19 forecast: 305 million tonnes lower area, higher yields, stable production 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 2018/19 vs 5Y-trimmed average Area Yield Production Soft wheat Maize Barley Cereals

19 EU Cereals Production: 2018/19 forecast EU EVOL CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTION 2016/ / / /2019 % change Million tonnes Feb fcst March fcst 2017/2018 TOTAL Soft wheat Durum wheat Barley Maize Rye Oats Sources : EC - DG AGRI

20 Milling Soft wheat FOB export prices 240 $/ tonne 230 Arg. Up River - $ US SRW Gulf - $ 219 FR Cl. 1 Rouen - $ 213 Black Sea - $

21 Maize FOB export prices Maize - FOB export prices 210 $ / tonne Black Sea - $ 205 FR Bordeaux - $ 195 (20/03/18) US Gulf - $ 194 Arg. Up River - $

22 EU Cereals Market Production: Area declining (and room for yield increase limited) Can production reach again 310 million tonnes or will 300 million tonnes be the new "standard"? Prices: Will the (slight) recovery recently observed (both on global and EU market) be sustainable (and make cereals "attractive again" to EU producers)?

23 LAST UPDATED: 23/03/2018 EU Cereals Balance Sheet EU 28 total cereals balance sheet (thousand tonnes) 2014/ / / / /2019 Beginning stocks Usable production Imports (from third countries) Total supply Total domestic use Human consumption Seed Industrial uses of which bioethanol/biofue Animal feed Losses Exports (to third countries) Total use Ending stocks Change in stocks

24 Oilseeds

25 EU Soyabeans Import Destinations (July December) UK 5% PT 5% IT 9% Others 11% 6.3m t. +0% NL 28% PT 5% IT 8% UK 5% Others 10% 6.3m t. NL 26% DE 18% ES 24% DE 21% ES 25% (Thousand tons) NL % ES % DE % IT % PT % UK % Others %

26 Paraguay 14% Others 3% Ukraine 5% Canada 10% EU Soyabeans Import Origins (July December) 6.3m t. +0% United States 39% Canada 12% Paraguay 9% Others 8% Ukraine 4% 6.3m t. United States 30% Brazil 29% (Thousand tons) United States % Brazil % Paraguay % Canada % Ukraine % Others % Brazil 37%

27 EU Soyameal Import Destinations (July December) Others 21% NL 17% Others 19% NL 23% UK 8% DE 9% FR 11% 9.9m t. +6% IT 11% PL 11% ES 12% (Thousand tons) UK 8% NL % ES % PL % IT % FR % DE % UK % Others % DE 9% FR 12% 9.4m t. IT 10% PL 9% ES 10%

28 EU Soyameal Import Origins (July December) Others 7% Paraguay 5% Paraguay 5% Others 5% Brazil 38% Argentina Argentina 9.9m t. 50% 45% +6% Brazil 45% 9.4m t. (Thousand tons) Argentina % Brazil % Paraguay % Others %

29 EU oilseeds production 2018/19 forecast: 35 million tonnes higher area and yields, +6.5% production increase 28% 2018/19 vs 5Y-trimmed average Area Yield Production 23% 18% 13% 8% 3% -2% -7% -12% Rapeseed Sunflower Soybean Oilseeds

30 EU Oilseeds Production: 2018/19 forecast EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/ / /19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed February 2018 March /18 5yrs trimmed Rapeseed Sunflower Soja TOTAL Sources : EC - DG AGRI

31 EU rapeseed prices Rapeseed HU (FARM GATE) Rapeseed LT (FARM GATE) Rapeseed LV (proc. plant gate) Rapeseed PL (del.first cust.) Rapeseed SK (FARM GATE) 420 EU Market prices for rapeseeds ( /tonne)

32 EU sunflower seed prices Sunflower seed ES (Average) Sunflower seed HU (FARM GATE) Sunflower seed SK (FARM GATE) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) 350 EU Market prices for sunflower seed ( /tonne)

33 EU soybeans prices Soybeans AT (exw upper Austria) Soybeans IT (FARM GATE) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) 395 EU Market prices for soybeans ( /tonne)

34 EU Oilseeds Market Imports: EU imports of soya and soya meals stable and still high (despite satisfactory EU oilseeds production), any room for substitution with EU oilseeds in the near future? Production: will the recovery in EU oilseeds production be sustainable? (market demand for EU oilseeds and profitability vs other crops?)

35 EU Oilseeds Balance Sheet 2014/ / /2017e 2017/2018f 2018/2019f Usable production Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Domestic use Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Imports Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Exports Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower

36 Protein crops

37 Million tonnes Protein Crops: production on the rise since 2013 EU Protein crops & soybeans production ALL peas, beans, lupins soyabeans 2.8

38 EU Protein Crops 2018/19 forecast Production: No Member States notifications yet But open questions about area and yields related to new policy framework (EFAs) After successive increases in area and production since 2013, is EU production going to stabilise, or even (slightly) decrease?

39 First Draft - EU Protein balance sheet 2017/18 (thousand tonnes) Grain legumes LAST UPDATED: 06/04/2018 Sweet Beans and Peas Broad Lentils lupins Chickpeas Other dry beans pulses Fodder legumes Green leguminou s EUR 28 Lucerne Vetch mainly Clover Beginning stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Usable production Imports (from third countries) Dried Flour & meals Total supply Total domestic use Food (dried) Animal feed Non-food industrial use Exports (to third countries) Dried Flour & meals Total use Ending stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a EUR 28

40 (first draft) EU Protein Crops Balance Sheet Any comments welcome, including on some methodological challenges/open questions: - Scope: which crops to include (or not)? - Stocks (opening and ending): which data? - Consumption (food and feed uses): which data?

41 Thank you for your attention! Market data the for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops are available at the EU Crops Market Observatory.