Corn and Soybean CORN OUTLOOK SOYBEAN OUTLOOK STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

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1 Corn and Soybean CORN OUTLOOK SOYBEAN OUTLOOK STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS CLAL (and its officers, employees and auxiliary persons) shall not be liable to clients, web users or anyone else for any loss or injury from use of the data (either provided from external information providers and/or from data processed by CLAL) and/or information and/or for any decision made or action taken by the client in reliance on such content. Even though this site was put together with the utmost attention, the information it contains may include printing, technical or other errors. The information may be altered or revised at any time without prior notice. This slideshow subject to the Legal Notice and Privacy of the CLAL.it website.

2 CORN OUTLOOK

3 CORN - Global and US outlook Forecast season Sep Aug 2017 World Data ( ) Million Tons From January outlook Beginning Stocks % Production 1, % Domestic Consumption 1, % Ending Stocks % Source (data and forecast): USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. U.S. Data ( ) Million Tons Billion Bushels From January outlook Beginning Stocks % Production % Domestic Consumption % Exports % Ending Stocks % Source (data and forecast): USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. CORN conversion factors: 1 bushel = metric ton - 1 metric ton = bushel.

4 CORN - Global outlook: production, utilization and stocks World Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e: estimated, p:previsional Ending Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Total Use (right axis) Mio t Mio t (e) (p) season 750

5 Corn Ending stocks (China and U.S.) Quantity % on total World Corn Ending Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e:estimated, p:previsional World Corn Ending Stocks (% on total) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e: estimated, p: previsional % 350 China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks 80% % Mio t 200 % % % (e) (p) season 0% (e) (p) season

6 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Corn prices $/bushel

7 SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

8 SOYBEAN - Global and U.S. outlook Forecast season Oct Sep 2017 World Data ( ) Million Tons From January outlook Beginning Stocks % Production % Domestic Consumption % Ending Stocks % Source: USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017) - processed by: CLAL. U.S. Data ( ) Million Tons Billion Bushels From January outlook Beginning Stocks % Production % Domestic Consumption % Exports % Ending Stocks % Source: USDA - FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (WASDE report February 2017), processed by CLAL. SOYBEANS conversion factors: 1 bushel = metric ton - 1 metric ton = bushel.

9 SOYBEAN - Global outlook: production, utilization and stocks World Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e: estimated, p:previsional Ending Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Total Use (right axis) Mio t Mio t (e) (p) season 200

10 Soybean Ending stocks (China and U.S.) Quantity % on total World Soybean Ending Stocks Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e:estimated, p:previsional World Soybean Ending Stocks (% on total) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: e: estimated, p: previsional % China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks China Ending Stocks United States Ending Stocks Rest of the world Ending Stocks % 80 60% Mio t 60 % 40% % (e) (p) season 0% (e) (p) season

11 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Soybean prices $/bushel

12 STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

13 CORN and SOYBEAN - World main producers 5 countries produce 76% of world Corn output. Total Corn production: Mio t 3 countries produce 82% of world Soybean output. Total Soybean production: Mio t Corn main producers (Forecast ) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Soybean main producers (Forecast ) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Others : 24% Others : 18% United States : 37% United States : 35% Argentina : 4% Argentina : 16% EU 28 : 6% Brazil : 8% China : 21% Brazil : 31%

14 CORN and SOYBEAN - World main exporters 4 countries export 86% of world Corn export. Total Corn export: Mio t 3 countries export 89% of world Soybean export. Total Soybean export: Mio t Corn main exporters (Forecast ) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Soybean main exporters (Forecast ) Source (data and forecast): USDA Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Others : 14% Others : 11% Argentina : 6% Ukraine : 13% United States : 38% Brazil : 42% Argentina : 17% United States : 40% Brazil : 19%

15 TOP 10 Producers: Variations of Corn Yields MT/H MT/H MT/H Source (data and forecast): USDA - Processed by: CLAL - Latest update:

16 TOP 10 Producers: Variations of Soybean Yields MT/H MT/H MT/H Source (data and forecast): USDA - Processed by: CLAL - Latest update:

17 Corn and Soybean prices in the USA, Argentina and Italy Comparison of Corn prices in Italy, USA and Argentina Processed by CLAL Comparison of Soybeans prices in Italy, USA and Argentina Processed by CLAL Corn price Italy Corn price USA Corn price Argentina Soy flour price Italy Soybeans price USA Soybeans price Argentina USD / Ton 150 USD / Ton Years Years

18 Agricultural and Energy Inputs Correlations Price comparison: Corn (Italy), Soy flour (Italy) and Crude Oil (U.S.) Historical comparative overview between Italian Corn and Soy Flour price with the Crude Oil price Processed by CLAL ,00 Italian corn price Italy Italian soy flour price Italy Crude Oil price US , ,00 Corn and Soybeans: /ton ,00 60,00 Brent: US$/bbl , , Oil Price (Brent): $/bbl - latest update: 2017/02/03 Years 0,00

19 Corn and Soybean U.S. Prices USA Comparative historical overview of the prices of Corn and Soybeans Processed by CLAL Latest update: ,50 Corn price USA Soybeans price USA 15,00 12,50 US$ / bushel 10,00 7,50 5,00 2,50 0, USDA projected season-average price Product Month $/bushel $/ton /ton Corn Feb $ 134$ 126 Corn Jan $ 134$ 126 Soybean Feb $ 349$ 329 Soybean Jan $ 349$ 327 Years

20 Corn and Soybean forward curve (CME futures) Corn forward curve (CME futures) Source: CME Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Soybean forward curve (CME futures) Source: CME Processed by: CLAL Latest update: Corn CME futures Soybean CME futures $/bushel $/bushel MAR 2017 MAY 2017 JUL 2017 SEP 2017 DEC 2017 MAR MAR 2017 MAY 2017 JUL 2017 AUG 2017 SEP 2017 NOV 2017

21 Focus on Italy: Corn and Soy prices Italian Corn: /ton (+3 from last month) Italian Soybean meal: /ton (+10 from last month) Price of Farm-gate milk Italy (Lombardy) January 2017 : /100lt Historical comparative overview between Italian Corn and Soy Flour price with the Farm gate Milk price Processed by CLAL Italian corn price Italy Italian Soy flour price Italy Farm gate milk price Italy, Lombardy 47,50 45, ,50 / Tons ,00 / 100 lt , , , Anni 30,00

22 Focus on Italy: The value of the Simulated Feed Ration The Simulated Feed Ration is a theoretical feed model exclusively based on the use of domestic corn and soybean extraction meal 44%; this has been taken as a model since the two constituent ingredients are the price drivers for all the raw materials available on the market. Simulated Feed Ration: value of 100kg 70kg of domestic corn meal + 30kg of soybean extraction meal 44% protein Above the columns the % variation of the total cost Inside the columns the % weight of each component on the total cost and % variation versus the previous month Quotations of the Milan Chamber of Commerce Processed by CLAL 35 30kg soybean extraction meal 44% 70kg corn meal 30 +8,96% /100kg ,98 45% 0,35% 9,86 45% 1,20% 1,30% 9,75 45% 1,17% +3,69% 10,19 45% +4,49% +11,32% 12,13 48% +19,15% 13,04 48% +7,48% 4,97% 12,44 48% 4,66% 7,27% 11,18 46% 10,13% 6,10% 0,11% 10,65 47% 4,70% 10,70 47% +0,42% +4,04% +0,44% 11,21 48% +4,77% 11,26 48% +0,45% +2,02% 0,13% 11,61 48% +3,15% 11,49 48% 1,03% ,12 55% 12,16 55% +0,36% 11,99 55% 1,41% 12,36 55% +3,04% 12,96 52% +4,87% 14,30 52% +10,35% 13,54 52% 5,26% 12,91 54% 4,65% 11,97 53% 7,32% 11,90 53% 0,58% 12,30 52% +3,38% 12,36 52% +0,43% 12,48 52% +0,99% 12,56 52% +0,70% 0 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Visit the page Feed composition analysis

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