Market Implications for GM Crops By Lloyd George www.farmhorizons.com Ph 03 9573 98 lloyd@farmhorizons.com Agriculture Australia 2003 Melbourne 12-14 August
Farm Horizons Australian grain information service Market reports Specialized reports Price monitoring services Education services Consultancy services Corporate and farmer customers
How to Assess GM Market Impacts? Polarised positions Range of views on market implications Customer demand for non-gm Premiums for non-gm? Reduced market access? Impacts on other markets What s best for growers, industry and Australia? How to assess? Substantial amount of information now in the public arena
Topics to cover World production of GM crops Trade in GM crops International regulatory environment Market access impacts Evidence of price premiums Impacts on other markets IP measures in other markets Conclusions
Production of GM crops 70 60 50 Mill tonne 40 30 20 Canola Cotton Corn Soybean 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 SBN 62%, Corn 21%, Cotton 12%, Canola 5%
Major GM producers 45 40 35 30 mill tonne 25 20 15 5 0 US Arg Canada China Aust 99% of total GM production occurs in US, Arg, Can and China
GM varieties in 2003 0 Soybean Corn Canola 90 80 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 81 95 69 20 40 30 0 US Arg US Arg Can Over half of world soybean production is GM
Major Grain Exporters 5 year ave 97/98 to 01/02 in % Canada 35 13 38 41 17 EU China 9 US 54 66 27 6 Brazil Crop Soybean Corn Total Export MMT 47.7 71.3 Aust 15 15 27 Argentina 14 25 Canola 8.9 Wheat 5.9 Barley 16.3
Major Grain Importers 5 year ave 97/98 to 01/02 in % Soybean Corn Canola Wheat Barley China 17% 25% 12% Japan % 23% 24% 6% 12% Korea 3% 11% 4% Indonesia 3% 2% 4% Taiwan 4% 7% >1% 1% 1% EU 37% 4% 33% 5% Brazil 7% 1% Mexico 9% 7% % 3% Egypt 1% 7% 6% Iran 1% 2% 5% Iraq 3% Saudi 2% 1% 30% World Trade 47.7 71.3 8.9 5.9 16.3
Trade from GM countries Percent of world trade 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 77 57 40 Soybean Corn Canola
Aust exports Exports Mill MT Canola 88 1-2 Japan, China, Bang, Pak, EU, Mex. Barley 90 3-4 Japan, China, Saudi Wheat 55 12 2 31 15-17 Indo, Japan, S Korea, Egypt, UAE Iran, Iraq, Yemen 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% Asia / Pac Africa Europe Mid East Other
International Regulations Major importers and other important countries Bangladesh China EU Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Pakistan South Korea Taiwan Thailand Saudi Arabia Food Labelling No labelling laws maybe next 12 months Mandatory labelling laws GM food and feeds >0.9% AP Draft labelling laws for >5% Specified foods >5% Considering >3% labelling Currently no labelling laws Govt. to finalise position Labelling required if corn, soybean, bean sprouts and potato if >3% >5% corn and soybeans >5% in top three ingredients All products require labelling Require Chinese issued Safety Cert. vague Varieties must be approved - Ban on new approvals since 1998 Varieties must be approved Require import permit Market Access Require health cert from export country
Market access concerns Canada lost access to EU canola market following introduction of GM canola Possible the moratorium on EU approvals will be revisited following introduction of new labelling laws Canadian canola exports have expanded following introduction of GM crops Some of GM market access requirements open to trade distortions e.g. China but no evidence so far Soybeans / Corn No evidence US or Argentina have lost market access following introduction of GM crops Large quantities going into Japan, S Korea, China & soybeans into EU Wheat / Barley No evidence that US / Canada has lost market share for wheat / barley as a result of accidental mixing with GM soybeans / corn / canola varieties Maintaining similar market shares into key markets
Canadian Canola exports Country Exports MMT 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 00 800 600 400 200 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 00 500 Total Exports MMT 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0 China EU Japan Mexico US Total Canadian canola exports expanding after GM varieties
World Wheat Exports 35 0 30 25 20 15 5 95 90 85 80 75 Mill tonne 0 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 70 US Canada Arg Aust EU Total No clear evidence that introduction of GM soybeans, corn & canola has impact wheat exports for US / Can
Evidence of premiums Canola Australian exporters unable to capture non-gm premiums Evidence of widening in prices between Australian and Canadian canola prices following introduction of GM canola can not be appointed to GM availability, freight spreads, quality improvements Possible premiums into EU when they want to import canola Soybeans Premiums for non-gm in US and Canada for limited quantities Some market segments prepared to pay premiums whereas other will not some Japan food grade soybeans Premium in Japanese non-gm soybean futures Relatively small premiums in some market segments
Size of non-gm market segments Canola Approx 50kt of Australian canola where non- GM integrity is maintain after imports No premium extracted for this Total imports 2.1 mill tonne Soybeans Approx 1 million of the 5 million Japanese soybean imports are for food quality soybeans This is for Tofu (approx ½) and other food products Greater willingness to pay premiums for some of the food quality markets how much?? Non-GM a small segment of total market size varies with grain type & purpose
Lessons from other countries US and Canada have introduced specialised IP systems to allow specialist markets to be captured included non-gm Systems appear to cater for non-gm markets such as non- GM soybeans into Japan These systems rely on a combination of supply chain management practices and a certification mechanism both must be able to maintain market confidence US Value Enhanced Grains developed by the US Grains Council with the USDA Canada Canadian export soybean IP standard gains certification of the Canadian Grains Commission SCIMAC UK system for managing GM trials
Conclusions Widespread trade in GM soybean, corn, canola International labelling systems have developed quickly over last 3 years Market access issues are greater new tool to use are a NTB Types of labelling systems varies widely but tolerances of GM grains in many Little evidence of major impact on trade GM grain/oilseeds or other grains Likely to be some non-gm markets but size is relatively small and premiums limited Non-GM market signals coming through Examples of where markets sophisticated enough to differentiate where they will and wont pay premiums Assessment of risks / rewards to Australia based on benefits and market risks Important to have established supply chain management practices and certification systems that have market confidence