VIETNAMESE COFFEE REPORT

VIETNAMESE COFFEE REPORT Hanoi, November 2016 Coffee is one of Vietnam's most important agricultural exports, second only to rice about export turnover. Vietnam still remains the world s biggest exporter of Robusta coffee. Coffee exports bring more than 3 billion USD each year for Vietnam, about 10% of whole country export turnover. Therefore, coffee sector has an important role in Vietnam national economy. 1

Vietnamese coffee market in Nov-2016: - In the early November, some main growing coffee regions have heavy rain affected to coffee harvesting process. By the end of this month, better weather condition and high coffee price led farmers to harvest coffee faster. The peak of this crop harvest is from the end of November. -Nearly 70 percent of coffee area is harvested in some areas in Dak Lak, the top coffee growing area, while between 30-50 percent has been picked in other Central Highland provinces. - Coffee domestic average price in November 2016 reached 43,800VND/kg, up to 1.6% higher than last month and increased 24.9% comparing with same period last year. Culminating in the in early November, coffee price hits over 45,000VND/kg in some regions. -According to General Department of Vietnam Customs, in Nov-2016, Vietnam exported 114,662 tonnes of coffee, brought $248.7 million in export value. In the first 11 months of 2016, Vietnamese coffee export quantity was 1.64 million tons, equivalent to over 3 billion USD, increased by 38% in quantity and 27% in export value comparing with the same period last year. -Germany was still the biggest import market of Vietnamese coffee, holding 15.2% market share. 2

1. COFFEE PRODUCTION, HARVESTING According to Vietnamese Coffee and Cocoa Association (VCCA), at the beginning of 2016, the severe drought caused extensive damages in Central Highland-the main coffee growing area. Thousands hectares of coffee were suffered from water shortage. Beside that, heavy rain continuously prolongs when rainy season coming affected to coffee quality and output. In Gia Lai province, coffee output declines by 50% compared with last crop, therein about 400 hectares mostly lost. Dak Lak-the main coffee growing province has more than 50,000ha suffered from drought and 4,500ha is seriously affected. According to statistics, the Central Highland has more than 165,000ha (account for 30% acreage) is damaged by drought and water shortage. In the early November, some main growing coffee regions had heavy rain affected to coffee harvesting process. Beside that, the coffee harvested in 2015/2016 crop is later 2 weeks than previous crops, so coffee harvesting output is still modest. By the end of November, better weather condition and high coffee price led farmers to harvest coffee faster. Almost harvested coffee output was sold immediately with high price. The peak of this crop harvest was from the end of November. Their estimate was that the harvest was 70 percent complete in some areas in Dak Lak, the top coffee growing area, while between 30-50 percent had been picked in other Central Highland provinces. Normally, the crop will finish at the end of December or the early January. However, with recent harvesting speed, this crop is estimated to finish at mid-december. Moreover, coffee volume this year is lower than previous crop, so this harvest will end earlier than usual. 3

2. COFFEE EXPORT a. Coffee export output and value Coffee export output this crop is quite high mainly thanks to inventory coffee from last year. In November, farmers take advantage of coffee price surging high to sell coffee immediately after harvesting. VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT QUANTITY AND VALUE 11 MONTHS IN 2015 AND 2016 Month Quantity (1000 tonnes) Value (million USD) 2015 2016 % compare 2016/2015 2015 2016 % compare 2016/2015 January 146 177 121% 307 306 99.7% February 97 117 120% 204 197 96.6% March 137 180 131% 277 303 109% April 107 188 176% 219 319 146% May 108 161 149% 221 286 129% June 110 158 144% 222 292 132% July 111 140 126% 225 264 117% August 95 153 161% 190 293 154% September 87 129 148% 168 256 152% October 88 117 133% 169 243 144% November 103 115 112% 159 249 157% Total 11 months 1,189 1,635 138% 2,361 3,008 127% (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT QUANTITY AND VALUE FROM JANUARY 2015 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Quantity (thousand tons) Value ( thousand USD) (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) 4

According to General Department of Vietnam Customs, in November 2016, Vietnam exported 114,662 tonnes of coffee, brought $248.7 million in export value. Coffee export output in November declined by 2.3% compared with last month due to heavy rain in main growing regions at the beginning of this month, prevented coffee harvesting. However, export value has still increased by 2.1% because of high coffee price. Thus, in the first 11 months of 2016, Vietnam exported total 1.63 million tonnes of coffee with export value reaching over $3 billion. Both export volume and value sharply increasing compared with same period last year. Specifically, until the end of November 2016, total Vietnamese coffee export volume increased 38% and export value raised by 27% compared with 11 months of last year. VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT QUANTITY 11 MONTHS IN 2015-2016 200 (Unit: Thousand tons) 150 100 50 2015 2016 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT VALUE 11 MONTHS IN 2015-2016 (Unit: Thousand USD) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) 2015 2016 5

b. Coffee export markets General, in the first 11 months of 2016, Vietnamese coffee exported to all markets significantly increase both in quantity and value, except to Spain decreased by 8.4% compared with same period last year. Specifically, Vietnam s coffee export to 10 main markets figure as in the table below: MAIN VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT MARKETS 11 MONTHS 2015-2016 (Quantity: ton; Value: thousand USD) No. Country 11 months/2015 11 months/2016 %2016/2015 Market share( %) Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value 2015 2016 1 GERMANY 169,684 321,094 258,686 457,382 152.5 142.4 13.0 15.2 2 US 129,400 264,580 212,588 394,228 164.3 149.0 11.1 13.1 3 ITALIA 96,700 183,045 126,294 224,304 130.6 122.6 7.6 7.5 4 SPAIN 106,334 210,157 106,707 192,600 100.4 91.6 8.8 6.4 5 JAPAN 77,964 157,177 95,806 183,525 122.9 116.8 6.7 6.1 6 BELGIUM 55,521 113,115 66,921 124,959 120.5 110.5 4.7 4.2 7 RUSSIA 40,488 92,875 55,390 107,872 136.8 116.1 3.9 3.6 8 PHILIPPINE 25,544 56,632 55,607 103,921 217.7 183.5 2.5 3.5 9 ALGIERIA 32,842 61,627 59,512 103,337 181.2 167.7 2.6 3.4 10 CHINA 25,873 65,437 43,129 97,948 166.7 149.7 2.7 3.3 Other 429,046 869,367 553,160 1,016,416 128.9 116.9 36.4 33.7 Total export 1,189,396 2,395,106 1,633,800 3,006,492 137.4 125.5 100.0 100.0 (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) 6

VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT IN 10 MAIN MARKETS 11 MONTHS 2015-2016 OTHER 34% GERMANY 15% U.S.A 13% CHINA 3% ALGIERIA PHILIPPINES RUSSIA 3% 4% 4% BELGIUM 4% JAPAN 6% ITALIA 8% SPAIN 6% (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) According to General Department of Vietnamese Customs, Until November 2011, Germany is still the biggest market of Vietnamese coffee export, holding 15.2% in market share. In the first 11 months of 2016, Germany imported more than 258 thousand tons of Vietnamese coffee, equivalent to 457.4 million USD, increase 52.5% in quantity and 42.4% in value compared with the same period last year. U.S.A is the second biggest market importing Vietnamese coffee, holding 13.1% of total coffee export value until Nov/2016. Italia replaced Spain to be the third import market of Vietnamese coffee with 7.5% market share. Export value increased sharply in some main markets respectively: Philippines (83.5%), Algeria (67.7%), China (49.7%), US (49%), Germany (42.4%), Italia (22.6%) and Japan (16.8%). 7

VIETNAM S COFFEE EXPORT OUTPUT AND VALUE IN NOV-2016 AND 11 MONTHS 2016 Export output Nov-2016 (tonne) Export value Nov-2016 (USD) Export output 11 months (tonne) Export value 11 months (USD) Market share by value (%) No. Country 1 GERMANY 18,117 38,082,613 258,686 457,382,848 15.2 2 U.S.A 13,882 31,386,076 212,588 394,228,346 13.1 3 ITALY 9,616 20,533,294 126,294 224,304,025 7.5 4 SPAIN 5,647 11,848,199 106,707 192,600,576 6.4 5 JAPAN 6,836 15,043,372 95,806 183,525,981 6.1 6 BELGIUM 9,798 20,552,192 66,921 124,959,774 4.2 7 RUSSIA 3,341 7,905,054 5,539 107,872,895 3.6 8 PHILIPPINES 4,808 9,182,384 55,607 103,921,250 3.5 9 ALGERIA 2,435 4,934,826 59,512 103,337,008 3.4 10 CHINA 3,249 9,013,324 43,129 97,948,179 3.3 11 MEXICO 2,879 5,793,177 50,233 85,734,380 2.9 12 THAILAND 3,838 8,160,384 38,759 73,322,504 2.4 13 ENGLAND 1,178 2,539,159 41,017 72,332,487 2.4 14 INDIA 3,714 7,068,562 41,257 69,828,307 2.3 15 FRANCE 2,562 5,209,694 36,329 62,804,519 2.1 16 KOREA 2,537 5,758,112 2,934 55,671,550 1.9 17 MALAYSIA 2,165 4,650,204 277 52,173,738 1.7 18 INDONESIA 19 39,754 17,275 29,272,608 1.0 19 NETHERLANDS 1,823 3,882,918 15,517 29,262,845 1.0 20 POLAND 855 2,055,929 13,731 28,664,047 1.0 21 AUSTRALIA 748 1,725,358 14,577 27,919,085 0.9 22 PORTUGAL 626 1,387,756 11,616 20,566,429 0.7 23 EGYPT 359 687,797 1,266 19,417,060 0.6 24 ISRAEL 264 56,765 7,323 17,750,619 0.6 25 SOUTH AFRICA 151 314,626 9,468 15,780,501 0.5 26 CANADA 537 1,166,689 6,473 12,362,788 0.4 27 GREECE 405 909,223 6,747 12,282,925 0.4 28 RUMANI 416 960,454 4,633 9,750,692 0.3 29 SINGAPORE 272 943,291 217 7,558,812 0.3 30 SWITZERLAND 126 237,105 3,872 6,849,341 0.2 31 DENMARK 63 146,223 1,635 2,753,851 0.1 32 CAMBODIA 57 274,306 323 1,427,382 0.1 33 NEW ZEALAND 0 0 621 984,854 0.1 Total 103,323 222,448,820 1,356,889 2,704,552,206 90.0 Other countries 11,339 26,222,146 276,911 301,940,282 10.0 Total export 114,662 248,670,966 1,633,800 3,006,492,488 100.0 (Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs) 8

3. COFFEE PRICE COFFEE DOMESTIC AND EXPORT PRICE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS Month Green beans domestic price(vnd/kg) Export price FOB HCM(USD/tonne) 10/15 35,400 1,650 11/15 34,800 1,639 12/15 33,600 1,579 1/16 30,300 1,454 2/16 30,600 1,434 3/16 31,800 1,446 4/16 33,700 1,533 5/16 35,700 1,636 6/16 36,600 1,643 7/16 37,900 1,737 8/16 38,300 1,742 9/16 40,600 1,861 10/16 43,100 1,959 11/16 43,800 1,993 (Source: Daktip; Vicofa ) COFFEE DOMESTIC AND EXPORT PRICE FROM OCT-2016 TO NOV-2016 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 ต.ค.-15 พ.ย.-15 ธ.ค.-15 ม.ค.-16 ก.พ.-16 ม.ค.-16 เม.ย.-16 พ.ค.-16 ม.ย.-16 ก.ค.-16 ส.ค.-16 ก.ย.-16 ต.ค.-16 พ.ย.-16 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 Grean bean domestic price (VND/kg) Coffee export price FOB HCM(USD/tonne) (Source: Daktip; Vicofa ) 9

a. Coffee domestic price COFFEE DOMESTIC PRICE IN 4 MAIN GROWING PROVINES IN NOVEMBER-2016 45000 44500 44000 43500 43000 42500 42000 41500 41000 40500 40000 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Dak Lak Lam Dong Gia Lai Dak Nong (Source: Daktip; Vicofa ) Coffee domestic average price in November 2016 reached 43,800VND/kg, up to 1.6% higher than last month and increased 24.9% compared with same period last year. Culminating in the in early November, coffee price hit over 45,000VND/kg in some regions. This is the highest price in the last 5 years. Heavy rain in early November affected to coffee harvesting process and lower coffee supply both pushing prices up. At the mid-november, domestic coffee prices started falling along with world price. Simultaneously, the wave of Mr. Donald Trump becoming the new President of the United States of America makes the world coffee market wobble. Coffee domestic price has slipped from the peak of 5 years in 45,00VND/kg to 42,000VND/kg. However, coffee price has continuously increased to 44,000VND/kg at the weekend. At the second half of November, better weather condition without rain made coffee harvest process more favorable. Coffee supply sharply increased. Especially, the information of favorable crop in Brazil and Vietnamese coffee produced output higher than estimated relaxing pressure on coffee price. Domestic coffee price fluctuated around 42,000VND/kg at the end of November. 10

b. Coffee export price FOB Ho Chi Minh (USD/ton) VIETNAMESE COFFEE EXPORT PRICE IN 2013/2014-2016/2017 CROP Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Average Price 2013/2014 1,633 1,533 1,728 1,718 1,874 2,107 2,040 1,960 1,956 1,988 1,852 1,967 1,858 2014/2015 2,072 2,019 1,910 1,874 1,852 1,732 1,833 1,804 1,761 1,773 1,721 1,612 1,830 2015/2016 1,650 1,639 1,579 1,454 1,434 1,446 1,533 1,636 1,643 1,737 1,742 1,861 1,613 2016/2017 1,959 1,993 - (Source: Daktip; Vicofa) The average coffee export price in November reached $1,993 per tonne, increased nearly 2% from last month and up to 22% compared with same period last year due to tight supply. Some main coffee production countries as Brazil and Vietnam affected from bad weather making lower output. 4. DOMESTIC COFFEE PROCESSING AND CONSUMING a. Coffee processing In 2013, processed coffee only accounted for 1.7% of total coffee export volume, but this proportion sharply increased to 11.2% in 2015. Following the schedule of Vietnamese coffee sector, until 2020 the processed coffee proportion will reach 30%, bring US$ 3.8-4.2 million of export value. 11

According to statistics of MARD and VICOFA, Vietnam has 8 main coffee processing enterprises, their processing capacity described in the table as below: COFFEE PROCESSING CAPACITY OF 8 MAINS COFFEE ENTERPRISES Company Product type Designed capacity (tonne/ year) Capacity 2013 (tonne/year) Capacity 2015 (tonne/year) Vinacafé Bien Coffee 3 in 1 30,000 15,000 30,000 Hoa Jsc Soluble coffee 3,200 1,600 3,200 Coffee 3 in 1 32,000 15,000 32,000 Nestle Vietnam Soluble coffee 4,200 2,100 4,200 Ltd., Co Roasted coffee 20,000 10,000 20,000 removing caffeine Trung Nguyen Coffee 3 in 1 30,000 16,000 32,000 Group. Coffee Ngon Soluble coffee 32,000 16,000 32,000 Vietnam Olam Vietnam Soluble coffee 8,000 6,000 8,000 Ltd., Co An Thai Group Soluble coffee 4,000 3,000 4,000 Vinacafé Dak Coffee 3 in1 packaging 1,000 1,000 Ha Jsc and mixing line Me Trang 3 in 1 soluble coffee 2,000 1,500 2,000 coffee Jsc 2 in 1 soluble coffee Total 166,400 96,200 168,400 (Source: VICOFA) According to VICOFA, processing coffee factories in Vietnam is sufficient for export capabilities with total capacity is more than 1.2 million tonnes per year. About processing soluble coffee and 3 in 1 coffee, total capacity of processing factories reaches 168,400 tonnes per year. However, many machines are obsolete, waste power and making product quality much worse than other countries. According to VICOFA statistics, in soluble coffee sector, Vietnam Ngon Coffee Ltd., Co is the biggest manufactures with the capacity reaching 32,000 tonnes per year. The second biggest manufactures is Vietnam Olam Ltd., Co with total coffee processing capacity is 8,000 tonnes per year. FDI enterprises account for more than a half of total green bean export value and hold a large proportion of processing coffee sector. Only 4-5 FDI enterprises but almost occupy the entire export market of processed coffee with each factories having 12

processing capacity of 10,000-15,000 tonnes per year. FDI enterprises have financial strength, modern technology, given preferences in tax rate when investing in Vietnam and our coffee buying regulations are not strict as other countries. Vietnam participates in many Free Trade Agreements, bringing opportunities for processing coffee sector when export tax in many markets reduced to 0% in nearly future. To take advantage of this opportunity, domestic enterprises need to actively cooperate in investment, build manufactory and apply modern technology making high quality products as well as focus on processed industry instead of raw materials. b. Domestic consumption Almost Vietnamese coffee output is exported to other countries, but mainly of them is raw coffee. Recently, many coffee enterprises are focusing on domestic market, so the domestic consumption volume is increasing and holding about 8% of Vietnamese coffee output. There are some main factors making high domestic coffee consumption volume such as focusing on market research and brand promotion. Thanks to many advertising programs, festivals, tasting and drinking coffee month and the efforts of the distributed enterprises, domestic coffee consumption volume is sharply increasing. Beside that, in recent years, many coffee shops and coffee chains are opening following with young generation s trend. 13

5. COFFEE QUALITY Coffee quality in 2016-2017 crop is better because farmers wait to harvest ripened berries instead of green berries as previous crops. In recent year, coffee enterprises focus on building manufactories and applying new technology towards sustainability to improve the competitiveness of Vietnam's coffee on the world market. Especially, farmers applying the production processes following the certification of sustainable development to ensure food safety. Coffee cultivation area according to standards 4C, UTZ... is about 60%. This is one of the main factors to promote Vietnamese coffee into the world market. In recent years, because of climate change, in Central Highland-the main coffee growing area often takes place unusual rain or sun. Especially, the most serious affect is in the coffee harvest season led to poor quality green bean coffee, causing great damages to farmers. To overcome this difficulty, farmers as well as coffee manufacturing and trading enterprises invest on building hundreds of drying coffee facilities, not only reduce losses, but also ensure the quality of exported coffee. 14