Trade Economics of Olives and Olive Oil: Data and Issues Sacramento Valley Olive Day Orland, July 6, 2018 Daniel A. Sumner and William A. Matthews University of California Agricultural Issues Center
Motivation, Orientation, and Overview International agricultural trade is in the headlines these days and concerns abound what does trade turmoil mean for farms? Economics underlie almost every decision in agriculture and international trade affects both costs and returns Import access to the US affects farm input costs, and competition in domestic markets. Access for US exports affects output demand and prices for most California farm products. We know more open markets have been broadly good for economic growth and incomes over the past 70 years, but governments are often motivated to limit market access and impose import taxes Olives are different from most California commodities in that exports are minimal, while import competition is robust
2.5 2.0 Index of US Olive Acres, Yield and Total Production, 1998-2017 1998: Acres = 35,300 Yield = 2.55 tons/acre Production= 90,000 tons 1.5 1.0 2017: Acres = 36,000 0.5 - Bearing Acres Yield = 5.34 tons/acre - Total Production - Yields per Acre 0.0 1998 1999 2000 Source: USDA ERS 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production= 192,300 tons 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
120 Utilization of US Produced Olives, 2007-2017 Volume of Olive (1,000 short tons) 100 80 60 40 20 Canned Crushed for Oil 0 2007 Source: USDA ERS 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Olive Oil Supply (million pounds) Source of Available Supply of Olive Oil Marketed in US 800 US Production 31 35 13 22 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 I Imports 7 591 696 687 729 710 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: USDA ERS
2017 US Olive Oil Imports by Source Total $1.44 billion ($millions) Argentina $63.9 Turkey $63.8 EU $1,192.0 Tunisia $61.9 Chile $33.4 Source: US Dept of Commerce Rest of World $31.5
2017 US Olive Oil Imports by Olive Oil Grade Total $1.44 billion ($millions) Refined $331 Virgin $36 Extra Virgin $1,048 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil Imports by Source Total $1.05 billion ($ million) Rest of World $21.6 Turkey $23.2 Chile $33.2 Tunisia $44.4 Argentina $61.2 EU $864.5 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil Imports From EU by Country Total $864.5 million ($ million) Rest of EU $3.3 Greece $39.2 Italy $447.7 Spain $374.3 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Olive Oil Exports by Destination Country Total $28.2 million ($ million) Rest of World $6.5 Japan $0.6 Taiwan $1.8 EU $3.3 Canada $11.0 Mexico $5.0 Source: US Dept of Commerce
Farm trade news has mostly about lost exports Almost all the news about farm trade this year has been about the treat of trade policy turmoil has been causing for exports This makes sense because most major US commodities are export dependent and the countries targeted for new US trade barriers are the largest import markets Commodities are dairy products, beef, pork, tree nuts, wine, fresh vegetables as well corn and soybeans are highly vulnerable The threats and actions change every few days and sometimes solutions seem close, but as of this week, new US tariffs are in place and retaliation has begun There may be some good result envisioned but for agriculture the costs are already real.
Volume of Table Olives (million pounds)400 Source of Available Supply of Table Olives Marketed in US 350 343 300 250 200 212 232 150 100 109 50 0 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 Source: USDA ERS US Production Imports 234 234 225 180 138 77
Value of Imports ($1 million) US Table Olive Import Value and Volume, 2008-2017 $425 180 $415 $405 $395 $385 I- - Value Volume (MTs) 170 $375 150 $365 $355 $345 $335 $325 120 2008 2009 Source: US Dept of Commerce 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 160 140 130 Volume of Imports (1,000 MTs)
$3,200 Unit Value of US Table Olive Imports, 2008-2017 Unit Value per Metric Ton $3,000 $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Table Olive Imports by Source Total $387 million ($ million) EU $337.3 Morocco $24.8 Egypt $7.0 Turkey $5.5 Peru $4.2 Source: US Dept of Commerce Rest of World $8.4
2017 US Table Olive Imports From EU by Country Total $382.2 million ($ million) Greece $145.8 Italy $21.7 Spain $204.8 Portugal $6.9 Rest of EU $3.1 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 U.S. Table Olive Imports by Product Tariff Line Description Total $387 million ($million) All other trariff Lines $126 Whole Stuffed Green Olives, Containter less than 8KG $102 Source: US Dept of Commerce Broken or sliced salad style Green Oives, Container less than 8KG $21 Whole Not Pitted Green Oives $35 Sliced Not- Green Olives, Canned $61 Whole Pitted Not- Green Olives, Not Canned $43
2017 US Table Olive Exports by Destination Total $12.4 million ($ million) EU $0.7 Rest of World $2.8 Mexico $0.7 Canada $4.2 Source: US Dept of Commerce Korea $0.9 China $0.9 Japan $2.2
2016/17 Global Table Olive Production by Source Total 2.7 million metric tons (1,000 MTs) Rest of World 548.3 Morocco 100.0 Syria 190.0 Spain 490.8 Egypt 500.0 Source: International Olive Council Greece 204.0 Algeria 234.0 Turkey 433.0
2016 Global Table Olive Exports by Source Total 868.4 thousand tons (1,000 tons) Turkey 57 Rest of World 116 Spain 315 Egypt 67 Argentina 67 Source: GTA Database Morocco 99 Greece 146
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