Market comment Markkommentaar May/Mei 2018
Inleiding Vanaf Januarie tot Desember 2017 is 18,6 miljoen 10kg sakkies meer (19%) op die nasionale varsproduktemarkte verkoop as die ooreenstemmende tydperk in 2016. Markpryse was 26% laer vir die periode. Vir die 2017 oesjaar is sowat 1 000 hektaar minder aangeplant as 2016 se meer as 52 000 hektaar. Introduction From January till December 2017 18,6 million 10kg bags more (19%) were sold on the national fresh produce markets than the corresponding period in 2016. Market prices were 26% lower during the same period. For the 2017 harvest year, about 1 000 hectares were planted less than 2016's more than 52 000 hectares. Ter vergelyking: Vanaf Januarie tot Desember 2017 is 1,3 miljoen 10kg sakkies meer (1,1%) op die nasionale varsproduktemarkte verkoop as die ooreenstemmende tydperk in 2015, die grootste oes tot dusver. Markpryse was egter 21% hoër as die ooreenstemmende tydperk in 2015. Januarie tot einde Mei vanjaar is 1% minder verkoop op markte as dieselfde tyd verlede jaar, maar teen 13% hoër pryse. To compare: From January till December 2017 about 1,3 million 10kg bags more (1,1%) were sold on the national fresh produce markets than the corresponding period in 2015, the largest harvest so far. Market prices, however, were 21% higher than the corresponding period in 2015. January to end May this year 1% less sales on markets than the same time last year, but at 13% higher prices. 2
How does the current state of the economy affect the potato industry, especially potato prices? The demand curve for potatoes is moving in the right direction! The consumer is paying more for the same volume of potatoes The consumer is buying more potatoes at the same real price In real terms almost R1 billion per year is spend more on potatoes than 10 years ago
2018? Each year we manage to plant between 50 000 and 54 000 hectares of potatoes 4
New trend? Trend 2016 effect of drought & high temperatures 2017 better growing conditions (especially Eastern FS & Limpopo). 5
More than 10 million bags Record sales volumes: November 2017 till February 2018 6
Good news: We sold MORE potatoes in 2017 (1%) than 2015, but at much HIGHER prices (21%). Remember: Record sales volumes during January and February of 2018 2017: Took out the effect of inflation Real prices were 21% higher than 2015!! 7
2016 effect of drought & high temperatures 2017 better growing conditions (especially Eastern FS & Limpopo) 8
What happened with market prices the last months? There are 3 types of market prices that are important: 1. All grades & sizes (on all markets) PSA Price barometer : gives an indication of the direction prices are moving 2. Class 1 Medium 3. Top 10% Class 1 Medium 9
PSA`s Price barometer (Note: This price is for all markets, all grades & all sizes) Take notice of the following when interpreting the graph: 1. Huge variation in prices on a particular market. Different sizes & classes. 2. Huge variation in prices between markets. Price barometer only an indication of the temperature on the markets up to that particular point in time. 10
Prices in 2018 were following the tong term seasonal trend, until the beginning of April. Easter weekend 11
Class 1 Medium on all markets: Between 45% & 50% of all potatoes sold 12
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Jhb markpryse 14
Price trends 15
During January till March of each year market prices are normally under pressure Seasonal trend: 2015 & 2016 did not follow the trend as it was 2 abnormal years. 2018 followed the trend till end of March. 16
Last couple of years: side ways movement in average real price Cannot beat inflation 17
Regions lifting potatoes
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Hectares: 2018 harvest Started lifting during December Mpumalanga Southwestern FS Planted more or less the same hectares Northwest Gauteng Started lifting early in January Eastern FS (more hectares) KZN summer (less hectares) Western FS (+/- same hectares) 20
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Eastern Free State 22
2017: 22,2 million bags were sold on markets 2016: 12,8 million bags were sold 2015: 19,6 million bags were sold
Western FS: +/- same hectares 2017: 17,6 million bags were sold on markets 2016: 19,1 million bags were sold 2015: 20,4 million bags were sold 24
Northern Cape 2017: Planted 551 ha more, mainly seed potatoes May - September: 1.8 million bags more to markets 2018: Planted 411 ha more, mainly table potatoes 25
2014: A relative cold winter Number of bags sold on markets since May of each year till end of December: 2017: 35,1 million bags were sold 2016: 30,1 million bags were sold 2015: 30,1 million bags were sold 26
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