Outlook for the World Coffee Market International Coffee Council 26-3 September 211 London, England José Sette Executive Director a.i. ICO composite indicator price Daily: 1 October 29 to 26 September 211 26 24 22 US cents per pound 2 18 16 14 12 1 1
US cents/lb 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: March 1965 to August 211 in current terms ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: March 1965 to August 211 deflated by UN index for manufactured goods exports (2 = 1) 6 55 5 45 4 US cents/lb 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2
35 ICO group indicator prices Monthly: January 199 to August 211 in current terms 3 25 US cents per lb 2 15 1 5 Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 2 Arbitrage: New York London Monthly averages 2 nd and 3 rd positions January 199 to August 211 18 16 14 US cents per pound 12 1 8 6 4 2 3
New York ICE futures settlement prices 1 st to 14 th positions on 27 September 211 248 246 244 242 US cents per pound 24 238 236 234 232 23 228 World Production Crop years 2/1 to 211/12* 15 14 13 12 11 113. 17.7 123.2 16.3 116.3 111.4 129. 128.6 119.9 124.2 133.6 129.5 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* 4
Production: 1 leading producers (Volume in bags - % of world production) 29/1 21/11 % change Brazil 39 47 48 95 21.9% Vietnam 18 2 18 5 1.6% Colombia 8 98 9 2 13.6% Indonesia 11 38 9 169 19.4% Ethiopia 6 931 7 45 7.5% India 5 281 4 983 5.6% Honduras 3 575 4 29 2.% Mexico 4 2 4 1 2.4% Peru 3 286 3 976 21.% Guatemala 3 835 3 95 3.% 35 Production: Washed Arabicas Crop years 2/1 to 211/12 3 29.9 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.9 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.3 29.4 3.4 25 2 15 1 1.4 12. 11.7 11.2 11.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 8.7 81 8.1 9.2 1.3 5 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* Colombia All other washed Arabicas 5
Production: Natural Arabicas and Robustas Crop years 2/1 to 211/12 6 5 4 43.6 42.8 4.7 41.2 42.6 39.8 38. 42.1 39.5 47.44 45.9 41.8 49.8 37.2 5.7 45.2 49.9 38.4 51. 3 29.1 27.5 25.3 29.8 32.4 2 1 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* Brazilian Naturals Robustas Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 1964 to 21 1 9 8 85.8 81. 8.2 7 7.7 68.1 71. 64.5 64.63.5 6 5 4 3 53.8 53.8 55.1 54.9 52.4 52. 49.5 48.2 44.8 45.3 42.6 4.3 32.6 32.7 34.6 29.6 3.5 55.8 53.1 54.2 55.1 53.5 54. 52.2 52.7 47.4 48.3 44.2 42.2 4. 41. 41.2 37.2 28.3 27.7 2 19.5 2.5 18.5 1 *Preliminary 6
Inventories in importing countries Calendar years 1964 to 21 25 22.3 2 18.1 19.3 21.1 21.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2 2.1 19.1 18.6 18.3 16. 16.1 16.1 15 14.8 1 8.8 9. 9.2 8.4 7.9 8.2 1.5 7.8 7.5 6.8 9.3 8.5 7.8 7.5 12.6 11.6 9.8 9.3 7.9 1.5 9.3 8.4 8.2 7.7 66 64 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.4 5.6 5.7 5 *Preliminary World stocks/consumption relation 1964 to 21 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 7
Inventories in importing countries December 21 and June 211* Dec 1 Jun 11* Change ( bags) All importing countries 18 431 22 987 4 556 European Union 12 425 15 818 3 394 Belgium 4 865 7 118 2 253 Italy 2 127 3 9 963 Germany 2 68 2 834 154 France 427 477 5 Others 2 326 2 299 27 *Preliminary Japan 1 755 2 343 588 Norway 124 124 Switzerland 154 143 11 USA 3 974 4 56 586 Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2 to 211* 14 12 12.4 1 98 96 96.3 97.5 96.2 96.8 94 92 9 89.6 9.9 88.8 91.1 91.6 88 86 86.4 87.6 84 82 8 78 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211* 8
Exports by group and by type of coffee October to July ( bags) 21/11 29/1 Change Total 88 883 77 875 14.1% 1% Colombian Milds 8 214 6 92 18.7% Other Milds 21 582 18 813 14.7% Brazilian Naturals 27 24 25 37 8.8% Robustas 31 847 27 14 17.5% Arabicas 57 36 5 771 12.3% Robustas 31 847 27 14 17.5% Exports by the top 1 exporting countries October to July ( bags) 21/11 29/1 Change Brazil 28 484 24 811 14.8% Vietnam 15 5 12 344 21.9% Colombia 7 193 6 7 18.5% India 5 372 3 215 67.1% Indonesia 4 912 5 423 9.4% Honduras 3 758 3 26 24.2% Guatemala 3 1 3 1 3.% Peru 2 631 2 423 8.6% Ethiopia 2 623 2 224 17.9% Uganda 2 51 2 282 9.6% 9
Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Washed Arabicas 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 12 months commencing Colombia All other Washed Arabicas Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Brazilian Naturals and Robustas 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 12 months commencing Brazilian Naturals Robustas 1
Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2 to 21 25 23. 2 16.7 billion US dollars 15 1 8.2 9.3 1.8 12.8 15.4 13.3 69 6.9 5 5.4 5.2 5.6 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21* 211* World consumption Calendar years 2 to 21* 15 14 13 12 11 15.5 19.8 111.4 114. 119.99 12.6 124.4 129.3 132.6 131. 134. 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21* 11
World coffee consumption Evolution 2 21 (in thousand bags) Change (21) (2) 2 21* Volume % Period growth rate (%) Traditional markets 63 367 7 837 7 47 26.2 1.1 Producing countries 26 385 4 28 13 895 48.8 4.3 Emerging markets 15 75 22 883 7 133 25. 3.8 World total 15 52 134 28 498 2.4 Estimated consumption: 1 leading markets by volume 29 21* % change World ldtotalt 131.2 134. 21 2.1 USA 21.4 21.8 1.6 Brazil 18.2 18.9 4.1 Germany 8.9 9.3 4.4 Japan 7.1 7.2.7 France 5.7 5.9 4. Italy 58 5.8 58 5.8 -.4 4 Russian Federation 3.1 3.7 16.9 Canada 3.3 3.6 8.9 Spain 3.4 3.2-3.6 United Kingdom 3.2 3.1-3.3 12
Total consumption Growth rates in traditional markets 2 21 Annual growth rate TOTAL 63 367 7 837 1.1% USA 18 746 21 783 1.5% Germany 8 77 9 292.6% Japan 6 626 7 192.8% France 5 42 5 931.9% Italy 5 149 5 781 1.2% Spain 2 991 3 232.8% United Kingdom 2 342 3 134 3.% Netherlands 1 86 1 347 3.2% Sweden 1 173 1 221.4% Finland 967 1 8 1.1% Retail price of roasted coffee (in national currency/unit of weight) Country Dec 9 Dec 1 Jun 11 Change from Dec 9 to Jun 11 Belgium (EUR/kg) 8.25 9.4 1.62 28.7% Denmark (DKK/kg) 61.86 71.12 84.5 35.9% Finland (EUR/5g) 2.79 3.55 4.5 61.3% France (EUR/25g) 1.51 1.52 1.64 8.6% Germany (EUR/kg) 7.56 8.24 8.4 6.3% Italy (EUR/kg) 12.18 12.26 12.9 5.9% Spain (EUR/25g) 1.63 1.65 1.74 6.7% Sweden (SEK/5g) 3.9 34.67 41.5 36.4% United Kingdom 1/ (GBP/1g) 2.28 2.37 2.56 12.3% Japan (JPY/1g) 123. 11. 137. 11.4% Norway (NOK/kg) 54.46 59.28 74.27 36.4% USA (USD/lb) 3.67 4.15 5.23 42.7% 1/ Soluble coffee 13
Total consumption Growth rates in producing countries 2 21 Annual growth rate Total 26 385 4 28 +4.3 Brazil 13 75 18 945 +3.8 Indonesia 1 664 3 333 +7.2 Ethiopia 1 938 3 253 +5.3 Mexico 1 189 2 239 +6.5 India 938 1 4 +4.1 Others 7 581 11 113 +3.9 Total consumption Growth rates in emerging markets 2 21 Annual growth rate Ttl Total 15 75 22 883 38% 3.8% Russian Federation 1 863 3 661 7.% Poland 2 46 2 156.5% Algeria 1 779 2 21 1.3% Korea, Rep. of 1 246 1 666 3.% Ukraine 179 1 485 23.6% Australia 832 1 37 5.1% Romania 551 796 3.7% Turkey 291 61 7.7% Israel 287 553 6.8% South Africa, Rep.of 368 553 4.1% Serbia 644 548 1.6% 14
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