COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 1 Supplemental Materials Magnitude Comparison Extended: How Lack of Knowledge Informs Comparative Judgments Under Uncertainty Oliver Schweickart and Norman R. Brown University of Alberta
SCHWEICKART AND BROWN 2 Table S1 Actual and Estimated Per Capita GDPs, Canadian Newsstand Citation Counts, Recognition Rates and Self-Knowledge Ratings for the 153 Most Populated Countries a (Data From Study 1) Actual per capita GDP (C$) Median estimated per capita GDP (C$) Canadian Newsstand citation count Mean knowledge rating (0-9 scale) Recognition Country rate Qatar 110,900 14,300 895 0.62 0.96 Kuwait 70,800 20,000 982 1.00 3.12 Norway 67,500 44,150 5,354 1.00 3.60 Singapore 63,200 25,000 3,289 1.00 3.16 Ireland 59,000 41,000 7,600 1.00 5.00 Switzerland 50,800 50,000 8,335 1.00 4.96 Austria 49,800 38,000 4,850 1.00 4.35 Netherlands 49,400 40,000 5,871 1.00 4.01 Canada 48,900 55,000 335,103 1.00 8.69 Sweden 47,500 50,000 9,820 1.00 5.03 Australia 47,200 50,000 20,418 1.00 5.88 Denmark 47,100 45,000 4,362 1.00 3.72 Belgium 45,800 40,000 3,864 1.00 3.84 Finland 45,600 42,000 4,399 1.00 3.48 United Kingdom 44,300 54,000 24,516 1.00 6.60 Germany 43,200 50,000 22,937 1.00 6.21 Spain 42,600 40,000 11,511 1.00 4.73 Japan 42,400 54,500 18,896 1.00 5.95 France 41,300 51,000 30,762 1.00 7.00 Italy 39,100 43,000 15,687 1.00 5.95 Greece 38,800 36,650 3,966 1.00 5.21 Taiwan 38,100 28,000 2,914 0.98 3.88 Slovenia 35,500 19,500 1,219 0.71 1.35 New Zealand 34,400 44,750 6,298 1.00 4.43 Cyprus 34,300 21,750 902 0.89 1.59 Israel 33,700 25,000 10,644 1.00 4.92 Trinidad and Tobago 32,200 12,000 437 0.88 1.86 South Korea 31,700 32,000 4,514 1.00 4.71 Czech Republic 31,000 30,000 4,499 1.00 3.62 Portugal 27,600 35,000 3,046 1.00 3.74 Estonia 27,600 17,250 658 0.80 1.52 Slovakia 25,600 24,500 1,855 0.98 2.53 Saudi Arabia 25,100 37,000 3,479 1.00 3.82 Hungary 24,400 29,000 1,955 1.00 3.31 Oman 24,100 14,350 843 0.47 0.79 Puerto Rico 23,300 18,000 1,509 1.00 3.20 Latvia 22,400 20,000 1,084 0.86 1.62 Lithuania 21,300 20,500 732 0.94 1.81 Poland 20,500 35,000 4,784 1.00 4.69 Croatia 19,600 22,000 2,290 0.96 2.29 Russia 18,700 40,000 20,698 1.00 6.33 Malaysia 18,400 21,250 1,709 0.99 3.08 Botswana 18,100 9,000 422 0.66 0.92 Chile 18,100 19,000 3,178 1.00 2.93 Gabon 17,700 11,000 350 0.31 0.51 Argentina 16,600 26,000 4,603 1.00 3.43 (continued)
COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 3 Actual per capita GDP (C$) Median estimated per capita GDP (C$) Canadian Newsstand citation count Mean knowledge rating (0-9 scale) Recognition Country rate Venezuela 16,200 22,500 2,903 0.98 2.63 Mexico 15,700 22,000 18,292 1.00 5.61 Libya 15,700 12,750 749 0.95 1.78 Turkey 15,200 23,000 4,676 1.00 3.49 Bulgaria 14,900 30,000 909 1.00 2.33 Iran 14,800 25,000 6,415 1.00 4.32 Mauritius 14,300 12,000 154 0.32 0.54 Costa Rica 14,100 21,000 1,355 1.00 3.46 Romania 14,100 26,000 2,429 1.00 2.53 Kazakhstan 13,900 15,000 1,500 0.93 2.25 Cuba 13,900 21,300 5,593 1.00 4.97 Uruguay 13,700 15,000 541 0.90 1.78 Panama 13,600 17,750 1,358 0.94 2.03 Belarus 13,400 17,900 1,406 0.77 1.59 Serbia 13,200 22,000 2,694 1.00 2.90 Lebanon 13,000 19,850 2,486 0.98 2.78 South Africa 12,300 22,500 7,203 1.00 4.55 Brazil 12,000 29,000 7,782 1.00 4.86 Macedonia 10,600 17,500 308 0.85 1.24 Azerbaijan 10,100 14,000 476 0.44 0.63 Thailand 10,100 20,000 4,228 1.00 4.29 Angola 9,900 12,300 585 0.60 0.85 Peru 9,600 20,000 2,322 1.00 2.80 Colombia 9,400 19,800 2,699 1.00 3.17 Tunisia 9,400 12,000 452 0.72 1.26 Jamaica 9,400 18,000 2,605 1.00 4.00 Ecuador 9,100 14,000 1,277 0.98 2.51 Ukraine 8,900 32,500 3,010 1.00 4.27 Algeria 8,500 13,250 1,057 0.94 1.65 Dominican Republic 8,400 21,000 1,616 1.00 3.58 Bosnia and Herzegovina 7,700 19,400 1,475 0.95 2.85 El Salvador 7,600 17,250 612 0.98 2.32 Albania 7,300 21,850 354 0.93 1.64 Armenia 7,300 16,000 357 0.68 1.12 China 6,800 45,000 41,213 1.00 6.21 Turkmenistan 6,700 14,000 131 0.53 0.62 Namibia 6,600 8,000 404 0.41 0.81 Guatemala 6,500 15,000 1,123 1.00 2.19 Egypt 6,300 24,000 4,581 1.00 5.20 Swaziland 6,000 12,000 202 0.61 0.93 Jordan 6,000 20,000 706 0.94 1.91 Syria 6,000 16,000 2,104 0.92 2.00 Bolivia 5,600 15,000 842 0.93 1.85 Georgia 5,600 22,000 2,601 0.90 1.95 Honduras 5,400 11,000 1,044 0.77 1.46 Sri Lanka 5,100 10,000 1,361 0.97 2.63 Paraguay 5,100 20,000 369 0.88 1.54 Fiji 4,900 25,000 592 0.98 2.58 Morocco 4,700 15,500 1,218 1.00 2.50 Guyana 4,700 9,500 524 0.52 0.75 (continued)
SCHWEICKART AND BROWN 4 Actual per capita GDP (C$) Median estimated per capita GDP (C$) Canadian Newsstand citation count Mean knowledge rating (0-9 scale) Recognition Country rate Indonesia 4,600 20,000 2,963 1.00 3.28 Philippines 4,100 20,000 2,803 1.00 4.32 Mongolia 3,700 14,300 802 1.00 3.02 Nicaragua 3,500 12,000 716 0.90 1.93 Vietnam 3,300 19,900 5,023 1.00 5.03 India 3,300 32,000 19,447 1.00 4.83 Yemen 3,200 16,000 681 0.76 1.21 Uzbekistan 3,000 11,000 611 0.69 1.00 Pakistan 3,000 25,000 8,591 1.00 4.43 Moldova 2,900 15,600 160 0.51 0.73 Cameroon 2,800 15,000 564 0.68 1.29 Papua New Guinea 2,700 14,250 285 0.89 1.70 Nigeria 2,700 8,000 2,183 1.00 2.67 Kyrgyzstan 2,500 13,500 295 0.38 0.57 Laos 2,500 12,000 441 0.73 1.25 Cambodia 2,400 13,500 1,114 1.00 2.83 Myanmar 2,400 11,050 1,806 0.44 0.97 Sudan 2,400 10,000 2,603 1.00 2.74 Mauritania 2,300 12,150 186 0.23 0.29 Kosovo 2,300 13,000 1,566 0.82 2.00 North Korea 2,200 22,500 1,679 1.00 4.83 Ivory Coast 2,200 19,000 440 0.42 0.74 Senegal 2,200 12,000 521 0.50 0.72 Kenya 2,200 10,000 4,280 1.00 3.27 Tajikistan 2,000 9,850 239 0.45 0.57 Chad 1,900 10,000 398 0.86 1.35 Bangladesh 1,800 17,000 1,220 0.97 2.21 Lesotho 1,800 10,000 175 0.13 0.17 Zambia 1,800 10,000 628 0.79 1.03 Ghana 1,800 9,000 1,034 0.75 1.56 Benin 1,800 14,000 115 0.21 0.28 Tanzania 1,600 10,500 1,211 0.79 1.39 Haiti 1,600 10,000 2,243 0.98 2.75 Burkina Faso 1,500 13,000 249 0.17 0.18 The Gambia 1,500 8,750 66 0.34 0.47 Guinea 1,400 13,750 502 0.89 1.48 Mali 1,400 12,500 411 0.57 0.80 Afghanistan 1,300 14,500 25,690 1.00 5.10 Uganda 1,300 9,000 1,463 1.00 2.36 Nepal 1,300 16,000 1,514 0.96 2.62 Madagascar 1,100 15,000 985 1.00 2.57 Togo 1,100 11,000 363 0.51 0.66 Mozambique 1,000 7,900 541 0.66 1.23 Eritrea 1,000 10,750 190 0.18 0.38 Malawi 1,000 10,000 620 0.44 0.83 Rwanda 1,000 7,000 1,768 0.98 4.02 Central African Republic 900 10,100 105 0.58 0.95 Ethiopia 900 6,300 1,380 1.00 3.10 Niger 900 10,000 529 0.88 1.75 Guinea-Bissau 800 14,500 52 0.29 0.35 (continued)
COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 5 Actual per capita GDP (C$) Median estimated per capita GDP (C$) Canadian Newsstand citation count Mean knowledge rating (0-9 scale) Recognition Country rate Somalia 800 8,500 1,972 1.00 2.43 Liberia 600 14,500 387 0.89 1.48 Burundi 400 12,300 209 0.14 0.19 Congo 400 10,000 1,894 0.94 2.16 Zimbabwe 300 11,000 3,787 0.98 2.29 Note. Actual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) values from the World Factbook (Central Intelligence Agency, 2008b) were converted to Canadian dollars (C$s) and then rounded to the nearest 100. Country citations in Canadian Newsstand were counted for the period from January 1, 2008 to January 1, 2009. a With the exception of the United States and the countries listed in Footnote 4.
SCHWEICKART AND BROWN 6 Table S2 Fit Statistics, Estimated Fixed-Effects Coefficients and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) from the Generalized Linear Mixed Models Fitted to the Choice Data (Study 2) Model 1 Model 2 Estimate 95% CI Estimate 95% CI Intercept 1.610*** [1.415,1.805] 1.278*** [1.120,1.436] Rank Difference 0.171*** [0.160,0.182] Fit -2 log likelihood 12145 11182 AIC 12151 11190 BIC 12174 11220 Note. AIC = Akaike s information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion. *** p <.001.
COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 7 Table S3 Fit Statistics, Estimated Fixed-Effects Coefficients and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) from the Generalized Linear Mixed Models Fitted to the Choice Data (Study 3) Model 1 Model 2 Estimate 95% CI Estimate 95% CI Intercept 0.664*** [0.274,1.055] 0.369* [0.001,0.737] Trial 0.022*** [0.009,0.034] 0.022*** [0.009,0.035] Standardized Mean Recognition Time (R) -0.680*** [-0.888,-0.473] -0.418*** [-0.568,-0.269] Rank Difference 0.117*** [0.099,0.134] Fit -2 log likelihood 2263 2087 AIC 2273 2099 BIC 2301 2133 Note. R = recognized; AIC = Akaike s information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion. * p <.05. *** p <.001.
SCHWEICKART AND BROWN 8 Figure S1. Proportion of R-choice responses for each of the 289 participants in Study 2. The number of RU pairs per participant ranged from 10 to 64 (Mdn = 50). RU pair = one recognized and one unrecognized item pair.
COMPARATIVE JUDGMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 9 Figure S2. Proportion of R-choice responses for each of the 296 participants in Study 3. The number of critical RU pairs per participant ranged from 1 to 10 (Mdn = 8). RU pair = one recognized and one unrecognized item pair.