World Sweet Cherry Review 2017 Edition TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 2 Table of Contents 3 Tables 5 Charts 6 The High Variability Challenge 8 I. World Production of Sweet Cherries 14 Erratic Rise in World Sweet Cherry Production 14 Area Trends in Major Producing Countries 15 Area Trends in Other Producing Countries 19 Leading Sweet Cherry Producing Countries 19 II. Future World Production of Sweet Cherries 22 Challenges of Future Growth 22 Unique Factors Affecting Production Forecasts 25 Turkey Faces New Obstacles 25 United States Production Rollercoaster 26 China Still Growing 26 Iran In or Out 27 Italy Stabilizes 27 Spain Important Exporter 28 Chile Chases Bonanza 28 Romania Transitioning Downwards 29 Russia Struggles to Expand 29 Ukraine Real Battleground 29 Uzbekistan Gains from Sanctions 30 Prolonged Agony in Syria 30 Greece Overcomes Economic Setbacks 31 Austria Focuses on Quality 31
Poland Slow Restructuring 31 Slide in France Continues 32 Bulgaria Shows Promise 32 Germany Stretches Limits 32 Lebanon under Continuing Pressure 32 Serbia Finding its Feet 33 Japan Faces Slow Erosion 33 Australia Stirring 33 Other Northern Hemisphere Countries with Potential 34 Other Key Southern Hemisphere Countries 34 Forecast of Future Production 35 Sweet Cherry Varieties, Uncertain Future 37 III. Global Trade in Fresh Sweet Cherries 40 World Trade Hits Obstacles 40 Leading Exporting and Importing Countries 41 Trends in Major Import Markets 44 Trends among Major Exporters 50 Southern Hemisphere Exporting Trends 54 Outlook for Trade in Fresh Sweet Cherries 57 IV. Consumption of Fresh Sweet Cherries 60 No Clear Competitors, but 60 Rising World Per Capita Supplies 61 Sweet Cherry Utilization in Major Producing Countries 62 Per Capita Disappearance in Other Countries 69 Potential For Expansion of Sweet Cherry Production 71 V. Prices and Marketing Margins 72 Price Setting in Sweet Cherries 72 Advertising s Role in Sweet Cherry Prices 74 Timing of Domestic Shipments and Ad Specials in the United States, 2017 78 Marketing Margins for Fresh Sweet Cherries 79 Wholesale Market Price Bellwether 80 Effect of Inflation on Sweet Cherry Prices 86 Influence of Trade on Sweet Cherry Prices 88 Influence of Seasonal Competition 92 Measuring Demand for Sweet Cherries 95 World Import Demand 95 United States Retail Demand 95 Farm Level Demand 96 VI. Processing of Sweet Cherries 99 Sweet Cherry Processing Holding its Own 99
Sweet Cherry Processing in the United States 101 Sweet Cherry Processing around the World 103 Trade in Processed Sweet Cherry Products 104 Outlook for Sweet Cherry Processing 109 VII. Critical Issues for the Future 110 Crucial to Maintain Competitiveness 110 Philosophical Opposition to Freer Trade 114 The Asian Paradox 115 Combating Distrust of Science 117 Country Index 119 Tables World: Sweet Cherry Area Harvested, Selected Periods, 2000-2014 14 Top Twenty Sweet Cherry Producing Countries, 2000-2016 20 World: Concentration of Sweet Cherry Production, Selected Periods, 2000-2016 21 World: Sweet Cherry Production Forecast 2025, compared to Actual, 2014-2016 35 World: Forecast Range of Sweet Cherry Production in 2025, compared to Actual in 2014-16 37 Top Ten: Fresh Sweet Cherry Exporters, 2013-2016 41 Top Ten: Fresh Sweet Cherry Importers, 2013-2016 43 EU-15: Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Principal Sources, Calendar Years, 2009-2016 44 EU-15: Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, Market Share and Average Price for Leading Suppliers, 2013-2016 46 Russian Federation: Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Principal Sources, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 47 China: Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Principal Sources, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 48 United States: Imports of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Principal Sources, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 49 United States: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Principal Destinations, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 51 Turkey: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Principal Destinations, by
Calendar Years, 2009-2016 51 EU-15: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Principal Destinations, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 52 Spain: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Principal Destinations, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 53 Southern Hemisphere: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Calendar Years, 2009-2016 54 Chile: Exports of Fresh Sweet Cherries, by Destination, Winter Seasons, 2009-10 to 2016-17 56 Major Producing Countries: Supply and Disappearance of Sweet Cherries, Selected Three-year Periods, 1994-2016 A. Western Europe, United States and Chile 63 B. Eastern Europe, Russia and Former Soviet Union 65 C. Asia and 24 Major Producing Countries 67 Selected Other Countries: Per Capita Disappearance of Sweet Cherries, Selected Years, 1994-96 to 2014-16 70 United States: Monthly Average Retail Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2009-2017 73 United States: Monthly Average of Advertised Retail Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2011-2017 73 New York: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2017. A. California 81 New York: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2017. B. Washington 82 Montreal and Toronto: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, May-June 2017 83 Montreal and Toronto: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, July-August 2017 84 Rungis, Paris: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2017 85 London, New Covent Garden: Wholesale Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2017 86 United States: Annual Average Export Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries Shipped to Major Markets, 2008-2016 89 Turkey: Annual Average Export Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries Shipped to Major Markets, 2008-2016 90 Chile: Annual Average Export Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries Shipped to Major Markets, 2008-2016 91 China: Annual Average Import Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Major Sources, 2008-2016 92 Demand Equations: California and Pacific Northwest Fresh Sweet Cherries, 2002-2016 97 United States: Snapshot of Uses of Sweet Cherries, Volume and Grower Prices, Selected Periods, 1998-2016 102 United States: Volume of Trade in Processed Sweet Cherry Products, 1998-2016 105 EU-15: Volume of Trade in Processed Sweet Cherry Products, 1998-2016 107 United States; Annual Average Prices of Traded Processed Sweet Cherry Products, 2009-2016 108 EU-15: Annual Average Prices of Traded Processed Sweet Cherry Products, 2009-2016 109 Major Sweet Cherry Producing Countries: Comparative Performance Measures, 2017 112
Charts World, excluding China: Variability of Production, 1995-2014 8 Major Sweet Cherry Producing Countries: Variability of Production, 1995-2014 9 United States: Share of Truck Shipments of Sweet Cherries, by Month, 2010 to 2015 Calendar Years 10 World: Sweet Cherry Production, 2000-2016 15 Turkey: Area Harvested of Sweet Cherries, 2000-2016 16 United States: Area Harvested of Sweet Cherries, 2000-2016 17 China: Area Planted of Sweet Cherries, 2003-2017 17 Chile: Area Planted of Sweet Cherries, 2005-2016 18 World: Average Sweet Cherry Yields, 1996-99 to 2011-14 23 Leading Producing Countries: Average Sweet Cherry Yields, 1996-99 to 2011-14 24 World: Share of Sweet Cherry Production Exported in Fresh Form, 1995-2016 40 World: Per Capita Supplies of Sweet Cherries, 1986-2016 61 Number of Stores Advertising All Fresh Sweet Cherries, Weekly, 2016 and 2017 75 United States: Advertised Prices for All Fresh Sweet Cherries, Weekly, 2016 and 2017 77 United States: Advertised Prices for Fresh Organic and Conventional Red and Rainier Sweet Cherries, Weekly, 2017 77 United States: Domestic Sweet Cherry Shipments Compared to Stores with Ads, 2017 78 United States: Annual Average Grower Prices of Sweet Cherries, Current and Deflated to Base 2010, 1995-2016 87 United Kingdom: Monthly Average Import Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Spain and Turkey, 2012-2017 88 Germany: Monthly Average Import Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Spain and Turkey, 2012-2017 93 Germany and the United Kingdom: Monthly Average Import Prices of Fresh Sweet Cherries from Chile, 2012-2017 94