15-Jan 12-Feb 12-Mar 9-Apr 7-May 4-Jun 2-Jul 30-Jul 27-Aug 24-Sep 22-Oct 19-Nov 17-Dec 14-Jan cts/lb $/mt Sugar Weekly Report January 7 11 2019 Sugar Prices and Macros as of 11-Jan-19 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 11-Dec-18 Weekly Var.Monthly Var. 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 11-Dec-18 Weekly Var. Monthly Var. NY #11 12.76 11.93 12.83 0.83 USD Index 95.66 96.20 97.46-0.53-1.79 London #5 344.9 331.0 344.7 13.9 USDBZL 3.71 3.72 3.90-0.00-0.19 NY#16 25.35 25.36 25.20-0.01 USDINR 70.50 69.54 72.36 0.95-1.86 Front White Premium 63.6 68.0 61.8-4.4 EURUSD 1.15 1.14 1.13 0.01 0.01 Market Situation at a Glance International Prices 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 Weekly Var. Sugar NY #11 12.76 11.93 0.83 cts/lb Front Spread -0.14-0.09-0.05 cts/lb London #5 344.90 331.00 13.90 $/mt Front Spread -9.50-4.30-5.20 $/mt White Premium 63.59 67.99-4.40 $/mt USD Index 95.66 96.20-0.53 USDBZL 3.71 3.72-0.00 R$/$ USDINR 70.50 69.54 0.95 RUP/$ RUBUSD 66.89 67.47-0.59 RUB/$ EURUSD 1.15 1.14 0.01 $/EUR S&P500 2596 2532 64.32 DJ Industrial Avg 24002 22686 1,315.70-0.1-0.09 Light Crude Oil 51.70 48.31 3.39 $/Barrel -0.08-0.09-0.11 Corn 379.00 382.75-3.75 cts/bushel -0.2-0.14-0.14 Wheat 519.75 516.00 3.75 cts/bushel -0.3-0.24-0.27-0.3 Coffee (Arabic) 103.95 101.60 2.35 cts/lb -0.4 11-01-19 Domestic Markets -0.5 04-01-19-0.52 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 Weekly Var. Unit -0.6 11-12-18-0.59-0.63 Brazil -0.7 NY Front Month in BZL 47.35 44.32 3.03 R$ cts/lb Domestic: H9K9 K9N9 N9V9 V9H10 Esalq Sugar (R$) 68.63 68.45 0.18 R$/50kg China 11-Jan-19 04-Jan Weekly Var. Unit Esalq Sugar (US$) 18.49 18.42 0.07 cts/lb ZCE Front Month 4,865 4,768 97 RMB/mt Hydrous Ethanol (NY#11 equiv.) 13.79 14.01-0.22 cts/lb ZCE Front Spread -81-74 -7 RMB/mt Anhydrous Ethanol(NY#11 equiv.) 14.56 14.66-0.10 cts/lb Northern Spot Cash Rizhao 5,400 5,430-30 RMB/mt Southern Spot Cash Liuzhou 5,370 5,370 0 RMB/mt Ethanol/Gasoline in Sao Paolo Ethanol 2,643 2,643 0 R$/l USA 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 Gasoline 4,108 4,113-5 R$/l No #16 25.35 25.36-0.01 cts/lb Ethanol/Gasoline Parity 64.3% 64.3% 0% #16/11 Spread 12.59 13.43-0.84 cts/lb Anhydrous from US Parity -19.99-15.92-4.06 USD/M3 Anhydrous to US Parity -177.43-181.52 4.10 USD/M3 EU 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 $/m3 India EU 45s containers 15 15 0.0 $/mt ov Ldn NCDEX 30,290 30,300-10 RUP/mt S-Grade (Kolhapur )* 29,200 29,300-100 RUP/mt Russia 11-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 M-Grade (Kolkatta )* 33,810 33,096 714 RUP/mt Price in Krasnodar 552 557-5.0 $/m3 * price does not include GST of 5% 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 cts/lb 0 Sugar Market NY # 11 Spread Evolution NY #11 Ldn #5 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300
Crushing Days Lost to Rain in CS Brazil Indian 15 Day Forecast (% of normal rainfall)
NY Flat price: March contract rallied last week from the lows of 11.94 cts/lb to the highs of 12.91 cts/lb. March settled at 12.76 cts/lb Friday, up from 11.93 cts/lb a week earlier. NY Spreads: March/May carry widened from 7 points to 14 points Friday, producers selling might have been behind the spread weakness. London market: March/May spread collapsed last week to $9.5/mt carry, down from $4.3/mt carry a week earlier. March/March WP hit the highs of $70/mt, however closed the week around $63/mt, $4 lower than a week earlier COT report: Due to the US Government partial shutdown, there is no updated COT recap to report this week.the last COT report as of December 18 indicated that specs were net-short 60.8k lots. Index funds were net-long 244k lots net-long. Commercials positions was at 183.2k lots of netshorts. During the reporting week prices dropped more than 50 cts/lb. BULL Indian weather continues to be dry and this could impact badly on agricultural yields and planting for the 2019/20 season. January rains in CS Brazil will be well below average according to the latest forecast. Stronger Brazilian Real should be supportive for the sugar prices. BEAR Import margins in China are negative, with no import interest or import licenses. Demand for white sugar is low, with Myanmar not issuing re-export licenses and East Africa having built stocks during 2018. Production in Philippines might surprise and be up this season.
NNE Brazil: 1H December production update 2H DEC 2017/18 2018/19 Var. Cane(mmt) 33.81 37.80 4.0 Sugar (kmt) 1.86 1.95 0.1 Total Ethanol 1,364 1,780 416 ATR (kg/t of cane) 127.10 134.37 7.3 Sugar mix (%) 45.49% 40.34% -5.1% Mills in NNE Brazil crushed 37.8 million mt of cane by end December, 4 million mt higher than last year. Sugar mix dropped to 40.34%, down from 45.5% last year. ATR rose to 134.4 kg/mt, well above last years 127.1 kg/mt. Total sugar production of 1.95 million mt, is 100k mt up year on year Mexico: Crushing Update Mexican crush update 2017/18 2018/19 y-o-y Harvest (Ha) 122,783 113,638-7.4% Cane yield (Mt/Ha) 80.0 80.1 0.2% Crushing cane (Mt) 9,822,008 9,105,759-7.3% Sugar (Mt) 975,979 851,714-12.7% Sugar extraction (%) 9.94% 9.35% -5.9% Mills in Mexico harvested 113.6k ha, 7% lower than last season. Cane yields were similar to last season at 80 mt/ha. Cane crush reached 9.1 million mt, 7% lower than last season due to slow harvesting. Sugar production was 13% down year on year at 852k mt. The decrease in production was also caused by the lower industrial yields 9.4% vs 10% last season. Russia: Production Wrapping Up 24-12-18 2017/18 2018/19 Var Beet stored up 43,585 38,487-5,098 Beet processed 41,475 36,782-4,692 Beet in stocks 1,811 997-814 Sugar produced 5,887 5,574-313 Extr. rate 14.2 15.2 1.0 Factories 48 24-24 There were 24 factories running during December 24 in Russia, half of what was running last year. Total beet processed was at 36.8 million mt, 4.7 million mt down year on year. Sugar production reached 5.6 million mt, 300k less than last year. Total production will finish around 5.8 million mt, down from 6.5 last season. Philippines: Production Above Last Year By mid-december, Philippines produced 574.5k mt of sugar, up from 516.2k mt last year. Total production is expected to finish around 2.1 million mt, similar to last year production which was 2.08 million mt.
COT RECAP Due to the US Government partial shutdown, there is no updated COT recap to report this week. Wilmar Grower Marketing Team PJ Gileppa (07) 4722 1924 0437 297 978 Simon Haire (07) 4945 9708 0437 803 019 Chris Winship (07) 4722 1986 0437 669 118 Franco Zaini (07) 4722 1954 0419 476 770 Zachary Wager (07) 4722 1956 0439 002 240 Angus McKerrow 0419 238 536 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report is compiled or derived from data and reports received by Wilmar Sugar Australia from a multitude of sources. While the data and reports reproduced above are prepared in good faith and with due care, Wilmar Sugar Australia is not in a position to verify all data or reports it receives. No responsibility is therefore accepted by Wilmar Sugar Australia for any inaccuracies or errors in this Report. Nor does Wilmar Sugar Australia purport or intend in this report to give to recipients any financial or commodity trading or recommendations. Information in this report may contain projections and forward looking statements that reflect Wilmar and Wilmar Sugar Australia s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on current assumptions which are subject to various risks and which may change over time. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that Wilmar and Wilmar Sugar Australia s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. This report does not constitute or form part of any opinion on any advice to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its report form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or investment decision.