The Importance of California Agricultural Exports: Situation, Outlook and Policy Prospects, with emphasis on the Korea Free Trade Agreement California Fresh Carrot Advisory Board 11 Research hsymposium March 15, 11 William Matthews University of California Agricultural Issues Center UC Agricultural Issues Center AIC Mission: provide broadly based and objective information or agricultural issues and their significance for California s ag economy Priorities: Internationaltrade trade, globalization, ation ag policy, ag. productivity and technology, ag. labor, ag. land issues, commodity markets and agribusiness UC based center for years http://aic.ucdavis.edu/ Talk will be in two parts Part 1: Results from AIC annual assessment of 9 California International Agricultural Exports. Part 2: California i Agricultural lexports and the Korea Free Trade Agreement. Part 1: California Ag Exports Main Points From 8 to 9 California agricultural exports declined about 5 percent. The total value of California ag exports fell from a record of $13.1 billion in 8 to $12. billion in 9. Even with the decline in value, the share of California farm production exported increased from.7 percent in 8 to 22.3 percent in 9. The value of tree nut exports increased 10 percent in 9, while non-citrus fruit exports decreased 5 percent and vegetable exports decreased 3 percent from 8 values.
California s agricultural exports, 95 9 9 Top Ten California Export Commodities 5 Dollars (in millions) Constant 5 $1,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $,000 $2,000 $0 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 Total Exports Top 56 Commodities Top 10 Commodities 00 005 006 007 008 009 Share of Change in Value 8 to 9 Export 9 Product 7 8 9 9 Value Rank Export value ($ million) 1 Almonds 1,879 1,899 1,925 1 15.5 2 Rice 31 552 877 59 7.1 3 Wine 816 910 812-11 6.5 Pistachios 36 581 682 17 5.5 5 Walnuts 91 666 36 5. 6 Dairy and products 930 1,21 608-50.9 7 Table grapes 558 618 59-8.8 8 Tomatoes, processed 300 90 58-7 3.7 9 Oranges and products 276 38-3. 10 Lettuce 291 338 321-5 26 2.6 Total Top 10 Commodities 6,9 7,531 7,362-2 59. Total All Agricultural Exports 11,18 13,090 12,01-5 California Tree Nut export values, 7 9 and 9 ranking 7 8 9 Change Share of in Value 9 9 8 to Export Rank Product Export Value in $millions 9 Value 1 Almonds 1,879 1,899 1,925 1 16 Pistachios 36 581 682 17 6 5 Walnuts 91 666 36 5 Total Tree Nut Exports 2,688 2,972 3,27 10 26 Total Agricultural Exports 11,18 13,090 12,01-5 California non citrus fruit export values, 7 9 and 9 ranking 7 8 9 9 Rank Product Export Value in $millions Change in Value 8 to 9 7 Table grapes 558 618 59 -.8 11 Strawberries 261 303 297-2 2. 12 Raisins 213 300 286-5 2.3 Share of 9 Export Value 15 Prunes 175 179 155-1 12 1.2 17 Peaches & nectarines 132 17 12-29 1.0 Raspberries 65 85 86 2 0.7 21 Cherries 86 121 85-29 0.7 27 Plums 50 69 55-21 0. 28 Melons 8 51 50-2 0. 31 Grape juice 33 9 1-17 0.3 36 Pears 23 31 28-9 0.2 39 Apples 25 36-7 0.2 0 Dates 18 21 2 0.2 2 Blueberries 15 0 0.2 3 Olives 17 18-7 0.1 Figs 11 15 18 16 0.1 7 Apricots 1 18 11-39 01 0.1 8 Kiwi 1 13 11-17 0.1 Total Fruit Exports 1,759 2,121 1,917-10 15.5 Total Agricultural Exports 11,18 13,090 12,01-5
California citrus fruit export values, 7 9 and 7 9 d 9 ranking ki California vegetable export values, 7 9 and 7 9 d 9 ranking ki 7 7 33 O Oranges and d products d t Lemons Grapefruit Tangerines g and Mandarins Total Citrus Fruit Exports Total All Agricultural Exports 9 Rank Product Change in Value 8 to 9 Share of 9 Export p Value 276 155 7 38 159 39 135 3 - -15-1 3 3. 1.1 0.3 12 31 33 7 0.3-7 -55 5.0 90 668 621 11,18 11 18 13 13,090 090 12 12,01 01 9 California Agricultural EExports b by C Category Mixtures and Others 18% Animal Products 7% Field Crops 1% Wine 7% Vegetables 7% Fruits 21% Tree Nuts 26% 8 9 9 Export Value in $$millions 9 Rank Product 9 16 32 8 10 18 23 2 25 26 30 37 52 53 5 55 56 Export Value in $millions Change in Value 8 to 9 291 338 321-5 118 1 113-6 100 109 100-8 71 75 72-5 65 72 11 55 60 59-1 5 8 59 22 31 39 5 17 26 31 27-16 16 11 8-30 5 1 9 3-62 3 3-6 822 916 890-3 11,18 13,090 12,01-5 Lettuce Broccoli Carrots Onions Cauliflower Celery Tomatoes, fresh Spinach Bell & chili peppers Asparagus Mushrooms Cabbage Avocados Artichokes Total Vegetable Exports Total All Agricultural Exports Share of 9 Export Value 2.58 0.91 0.81 0.58 0.58 0.8 0.7 0.36 0.21 0.06 0.0 0.03 0.03 0.03 7.17 Top 10 destinations for California Agricultural Exports in 9 9, by Value Rest of World Australia 17% 2% Taiwan 2% United Arab Emirates 2% India 2% Canada 25% South Korea 3% Mexico 6% China / H Chi Hong Kong 10% Japan 11% European Union 27* 27 %
of California Export Value Shipped to Mj Major Markets, by Commodity Group, 9 1 Annual Share of California Principal Commodity Exports for Fruits, Vegetables, and Tree Nuts, 95 9 EU-27 Canada Japan China /HK Mexico South Korea ROW Total Animal Products 2 1.22 12.83 12.15 8.12 23.5 7.29 3.9 100 Field Crops 3 5.89 12.63 27.21 6.31.5 3.67 39.8 100 Fruits 10.70 39.86 8.81 6.6 3.52 2.59 27.88 100 Tree Nuts 37.51 5.29.92 17.22 3.06 3.11 28.89 100 Vegetables 1.8 83.18 5.99 0.7 6.75 0.1 1.63 100 Flowers and Nursery 6.39 65.16 2.3 2.37 16.16 0.33 7.26 100 Wine.2 25.30 9.0 6.79 0.95 1.37 12.32 100 All Commodity Groups.59 2.85 10.68 9.53 5.31 2.98 27.05 100 Source: University of California Agricultural Issues Center. 1 Based on 50 individual products for which reliable destination data are available. Share of All Principal Com mmodity Expo orts (percent) 35 30 25 15 10 5 0 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 0 1 2 3 5 Fruits and Products Tree Nuts Vegetables 6 7 8 9 2 Does not include chicken, eggs, or turkey because reliable data on destination of export is not available. 3 Does not include wheat because reliable data on the destination of export is not available. Does not include apples because reliable data on the destination of export is not available. Value of California Vegetable Exports, 95 9 Value of California Carrot Exports, 95 9 $1 ) s (in $millions lue of Exports Va $1,300 $1, $1,100100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 Nominal Value of Vegetable Exports Real Value of Vegetable Exports Exports (in $m millions) alue of Carrot Va $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $0 Nominal Value Carrot Exports Real Value Carrot Exports $500 $30 $00 $ 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9
rted of Prod duction Expor P 35% 30% 25% % 15% 10% 5% 0% Share of Annual Production of California Lettuce, Carrots, Onions and Broccoli Exported, 1 9 Carrots Lettuce Broccoli Onions 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Conclusions 9 was a tough year for California agricultural exports. 32 of the top 56 export commodities experienced a decline of 5 percent or more from8 values. Early indications are that exports rebounded in 10 and will continue to grow in value in 11. Part II: California i Agriculture and the Korea Free Trade Agreement giannini.ucop.edu/infoseries/092_korus_fta.pdf
Part II: Korea FTA Main points Korea has been a large and diversified export destination for US and California agriculture In 9, 33 commodities were exported from California to Korea With more open markets the potential is for exports to increase substantially Three main drivers of growth Korea has a large, prosperous population with substantial income growth and a documented market demand for high quality goods Korean trade barriers for food and related imports have come down some but remain high, and despite these barriers US exports have been successful The KORUS trade agreement will eliminate many barriers and reduce others substantially What I cover This talk provides a context for to all US exports to Korea, but focuses especially on products of particular interest t here in California i This talk develops industry wide data to provide a context, but cannot go into detail on specific products or companies There is no reason for AIC to provide advise about specific opportunities or the process of exporting (others are more qualified) Agricultural markets vary year to year and month to month, I provide an overview to where the future may lead Agricultural trade for the United States and Korea and bilateral agricultural trade between the United States and Korea Agricultural Trade 9 10 WORLD TRADE U.S. Exports $98.5 bil $115.8 bil Imports $71.7 bil $81.6 bil Korea Exports $5.7 bil $6.3 bil Imports $21.2 bil $23.1 bil BILATERAL TRADE U.S. exports to Korea (Korean imports from US) $3.9 bil $5.3 bil Share in U.S. Exports % 5% Share in Korean Imports 18% 23%
s) s (in $millions lifornia Agricu ultural Exports Value of Ca Value of California Agricultural Exports to Top 6 Destination i Countries, 1 99 $3,000 Canada European Union Japan $2,500 Mexico China/Hong Kong Korea $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Current data Price and export values were down some in 9 and this includes California export to Korea But, now 10 has been a very strong price and export year. Exchange rates also vary and exporters must know that predicting timing of exchange rate changes is just impossible. $0 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Nominal exchange rate indexes, monthly January 0 to January 11 Korea Vegetable Imports, 98 7 Forei gn Currency per US $ (Janu uary 0=1.00 0) 1.800 1.600 1.00 1. 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.00 0. 0.000 Mexico Canada Korea, Republic of Euro Area 00 00 00 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 0 0 05 05 05 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 10 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov
Korean Import of CarrotProducts US and California Carrot Exports to Korea, 2 9 6 7 In $1,000 Carrot tproducts 36,6363 37,67 Fresh (0706101000) 33,56 33,831 Dried (0712900) 2,226 2,729 Frozen (071080000) 869 906 Temporarily Preserved (0710000) 2 1 Value of Carrot Exports to Korea (in $1,000) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 California U.S. 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Base tariffs in Korea for selected products Access improvement by general market access category
Competition with other exporters in crucial The best opportunities are to expand in the Korean market for products where Korean production is small or potential for Korean supply expansion is limited Korean Imports of Vegetable Products by Major Source, 6 77 One emphasis to use lower barriers to compete with other who already have trade deals (Chile) or may develop deals (Australia and the EU) Value of Korean imports and major competitors, 7 Value of Korean imports and major competitors, 7
Conclusions The challenge for agricultural exports to Korea is to find those markets with strong potential growth For example, dairy products now face high barriers, has large growth potential and Korean supply expansion is difficult, so the KORUS trade agreement will help the US compete with New Zealand in the bulk market But, also, top quality branded and unique products are of much interest to Korea consumers Bottom line the potential market is there but competition is never easy Thank you. www.aic.ucdavis.edu