ENERGY UK Ltd. IANSA Seminar Presentation Thursday 22 nd August
Raw Sugar Price - Spot Futures Month 2
000 mt Global Sugar Balance (May / Apr basis) 190 000 180 000 170 000 160 000 08/09-8.6 mmt 09/10-6.2 mmt 10/11-1.5 mmt 11/12 + 12.3 mmt 12/13 + 12.8 mmt 13/14 + 10.6 mmt 150 000 140 000 130 000 120 000 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production Consumption 3
Build-up of Global Sugar Stocks 31.7 mmt 4
The EU A Historical Perspective (all in white value) 5
EU Sugar Prices 6
EU Sugar Production & Yield 7
EU Sugar Imports & Exports 8
Russia Area & Agricultural Yield 9
Russia Beet Losses 10
Russia Raw Sugar Imports 11
The FSU Overview in 2012/13 THE CIS REGION (2012/13) Production Consumption Raw Imports Net Surplus 8,400 kmt 9,800 kmt 1,780 kmt 380 kmt KEY Import of raws for refining Export of tolled refined Note Figures in raw value 12
North Africa & Middle East Refining Capacity KEY Current Capacity Planned Capacity REFINING CAPACITY (kmt pa) Current Planned Total 10,130 14,610 EXCESS REFINING CAPACITY (kmt pa) Production Consumption Excess Capacity, basis: Current Planned Total 2,680 13,210 (400) 4,080 13
India Sugar production by state 14
India Cane Price 15
India Sugar Production & Consumption 16
India Sugar Stocks & Imports/Exports 17
India 2013 Monsoon gets off to good start 18
Thailand Sugar Cane Price 19
Thailand Area & Agricultural Yield 20
Thailand Cane & Sugar Production 21
Thailand Breakdown of Exports 22
China Cane Price 23
China Production vs Consumption 24
China Area and Agricultural Yield 25
China Stock Forecast 26
Indonesia Production & Imports 27
Australia Cane and Sugar Yield 28
NNE Brazil Sugar and ethanol production 29
NNE Brazil Sugar Production & Exports 30
CS Brazil Sugar and Ethanol Production 31
CS Brazil Sugar Production & Exports 32
CS Brazil Ethanol Production & Consumption 33
CS Brazil - Looking Forward to 2014/15
NAFTA Monthly Sweetener Trade Flow 35
USA Sugar Production 36
USA HFCS Supply & Demand 37
Mexico Sugar Production & Stocks (Oct/Sep) 38
000 mt sugar equivalent USA & Mexico Sugar & HFCS 26 000 25 000 FORFEITURES? 24 000 23 000 22 000 21 000 20 000 19 000 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production Net World Trade Consumption 39
Central America Export Breakdown (Oct/Sep) Central America includes: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras & Nicaragua 40
000 MT 000 MT Argentina Sugar Exports (May/Apr) 800 2600 700 2400 600 2200 500 2000 400 1800 300 1600 200 1400 100 1200 0 1000 Bulk [LHS] Bagged [LHS] Production [RHS] 41
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Global Shifts in Production Oct/Sep Season Beet plantings react to falling world prices faster than cane 43
Change in Global Sugar Consumption (May to April) 44
Global Sugar Stocks Selected Countries (Oct/Sep) 45
Global Trade Flows Quarterly 46
Near Term Influences 47
Raw Sugar Price - Spot Futures Month (Rebased) 48
Sugar and CRB index - Rebased 49
Looking Forward
ENERGY UK Ltd. Muchas Gracias!