United Way of Northern Shenandoah Valley Community Needs Update: 2014 2017 A report of conditions, trends and human service priorities impacting the critical needs of the people of the Northern Shenandoah Valley March 2014 3/31/14 United Way of Northern Shenandoah Valley In partnership with Lord Fairfax Community College
2014 Progress Report Outline Target Needs & Indicators/Measures Local demographic changes/trends 2
Target Needs & Indicators/Measures Education/Achieving Potential Improve on time graduation & advanced learning Income/Financial Stability Decrease number of financially unstable families Health/Risk Behaviors Reduce the incidence & prevalence of risk behaviors 3
Education/Achieving Potential Measures: Increase public school on time graduation rates from 86.8% to 90.0% Decrease % of children entering kindergarten needing remedial literacy assistance Increase % of area students participating in postsecondary education 4
Education: Increase on time graduation rates 2009 2012 100% 97% 96% 98% 96% 95% 92% 93% 90% 85% 86% 90% 84% 89% 90% 83% 89% 87% 80% 75% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD Source: VA Dept. of Education High School Graduation Cohort Reports for 2009 and 2012 5
Education: Decrease % kindergarten needing remedial literacy assistance 40% 35% 30% 37% 31% 25% 20% 15% 10% 12% 10% 17% 17% 18% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2008 09 2013 14 Source: Kids Count Data Center PALS data collected by Virginia for 2008 09 & 2013 14 6
Education: Increase postsecondary participation 80% 75% 70% 60% 67% 63% 64% 65% 61% 53% 53% 53% 61% 61% 60% 50% 40% 42% 37% 30% 20% 10% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD 2009 2012 Source: VA Dept. of Education High School Graduates Postsecondary Enrollment Reports for cohort years 2009 & 2012 7
Income/Financial Stability Measure: Decrease % of families earning less than $25K from 18.3% to 15.0%. 8
Income: % Family households earning < $25,000 30% 25% 20% 28% 27% 22% 25% 21% 21% 24% 27% 20% 20% 15% 15% 12% 16% 15% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD 2009 Est. 2012 Est. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 09 and 2008 12 American Community Survey multi year estimates 9
Health/Risk Behaviors Reduce incidence & prevalence of health risk behaviors to above the 50% ranking for Adult smoking Diet and exercise Alcohol use Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) Access to care 10
Health: VA County Risk Rankings Adult smoking 1 Above 50% 13 26 25 37 44 44 43 42 49 52 52 61 73 85 88 97 100 102 109 117 121 129 133 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014 11
Health: Context: % Adult smoking 40% 35% 34% 30% 25% 20% 19% 22% 27% 22% 21% 24% 24% 20% 18% 15% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014. Note: Data not provided for some areas. 12
Health: VA County Risk Rankings Diet & exercise Above 50% 1 7 13 16 25 29 37 41 45 49 52 57 62 61 70 69 74 73 85 98 97 109 121 133 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014 13
Health: VA County Risk Rankings Alcohol use 1 Above 50% 13 26 23 25 31 30 37 42 49 61 73 80 78 83 85 92 97 109 109 118 115 121 133 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014. Note: 2014 rankings include drug & alcohol use 14
Health: Context: % Binge/Excessive drinking 18% 16% 14% 14% 13% 15% 16% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 16% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014. Note: Data not provided for some areas. 15
Health: VA County Risk Rankings STDs 1 Above 50% 13 20 20 25 37 40 49 53 46 49 50 61 64 70 73 85 87 97 109 117 123 121 133 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014. Note: 2014 included additional STDs. 16
Health: VA County Risk Rankings Access to care Above 50% 1 6 13 18 25 29 37 49 49 60 58 61 65 69 73 87 85 97 110 108 106 109 121 133 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014 17
Health: Context: People per primary care physician 3,000 2,656 2,500 2,416 2,000 2,080 2,037 2,049 1,997 1,639 1,922 2,159 1,716 1,500 1,000 1,053 1,345 500 323 374 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2011 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2011 & 2014. Note: Data not available for 2010. 18
Health: Context: People per mental health provider 7,000 6,000 6,022 5,000 4,000 3,651 3,537 4,301 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,438 343 1,027 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2014. Note: this is a new measure provided in 2014. 19
Health: Context: % Uninsured 25% 20% 15% 14% 12% 13% 15% 18% 18% 18% 17% 13% 16% 20% 15% 15% 14% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014. 20
Review of Changes 2010 2013 Goal NSVPD Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Education/Achieving Potential Increase on time high school graduation Decrease % need for Kindergarten N/A remediation Increase college participation Income/Financial Stability Decrease % family households earning <$25,000 per year Health Risks/Behaviors Increase rank for adult smoking N/A Increase rank for diet & exercise N/A Increase rank for alcohol use N/A Increase rank for STDs N/A Increase rank for access to care N/A Legend: = Increase = Decrease = No change 21
Local demographic changes/trends Population estimates & projections Age groups Race/Ethnicity Educational attainment Unemployment rates Children in poverty Children in free or reduced lunch programs Participants in SNAP Speak English less than well Teen pregnancies Violent crimes per 100,000 people 22
Demographics: Population estimates 2010 13 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Clarke 14,067 14,211 14,276 14,148 Frederick 78,834 79,156 80,118 81,207 Page 24,058 24,155 24,215 24,079 Shenandoah 42,172 42,114 42,812 42,889 Warren 37,729 37,688 38,077 38,387 Winchester 26,265 26,167 27,208 26,961 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Annual Population Estimates, released 1/27/14 23
Demographics: Population Projections through 2040 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Clarke 12,652 14,034 15,025 15,871 16,631 Frederick 59,209 78,305 97,192 119,419 145,938 Page 23,177 24,042 24,995 25,895 26,716 Shenandoah 35,075 41,993 45,829 49,045 52,104 Warren 31,584 37,575 41,856 45,818 49,709 Winchester 23,585 26,203 27,967 29,449 30,781 Source: Virginia Labor Market Information LMI Population Change tool 24
Demographics: Age groups 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Under 5 5 to 19 20 to 24 25 39 40 64 65+ 2010 13,696 44,374 12,564 39,462 79,343 32,713 2020 14,350 48,498 13,791 47,649 84,523 44,048 2030 14,350 52,875 15,839 54,783 86,427 59,034 2040 14,350 61,437 16,757 60,676 98,881 65,689 Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 25
Demographics: Race/Ethnicity & Hispanic origin projections 350,000 300,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 White Black/African American Asian Other 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 Non Hispanic Hispanic/Latina Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 26
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Demographics: Educational attainment 737 1,292 4,706 1,973 2,085 1,328 2,141 656 3,324 7,813 3,395 1,799 1,365 2,829 2,555 1,609 3,593 606 5,495 1,000 4,943 10,796 2,973 2,250 7,204 12,218 9,252 16,687 5,042 2,847 2,888 5,055 3,350 1,525 795 2,509 465 3,051 1,706 1,783 1,429 1,505 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Less Than 9th grade 9 12th No Diploma High School Grad/GED Some college/no degree Associate's Bachelor's Grad/Prof/Doct. Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 27
Demographics: Unemployment rates 14% 12% 11.7% 10.8% 10% 9.6% 8% 6% 4% 5.9% 4.0% 7.3% 4.9% 8.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.7% 7.2% 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 7.0% 2% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia United States June 2010 January 2014 Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Labor Market Information, LMI Unemployment tool & NSVRC Community Profile 28
Demographics: Children in poverty 25% 22% 23% 20% 15% 11% 12% 18% 12% 18% 11% 15% 17% 13% 16% 10% 9% 7% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014 29
Demographics: Children in free/reduced lunch programs 60% 50% 50% 54% 54% 57% 40% 34% 37% 43% 34% 40% 30% 29% 20% 17% 19% 10% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2009 10 2012 13 Source: VA Dept. of Education National School Lunch Program (NSLP) Free and Reduced Price Eligibility reports for 2009 10 & 2012 13 30
Demographics: Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program (SNAP) total persons participating 7,000 6,000 6,060 6,639 5,600 5,000 4,000 3,963 3,637 4,780 4,308 4,961 4,350 3,814 3,000 2,000 1,000 745 734 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester January 2010 January 2014 Source: VA Dept. of Social Services SNAP Participation Reports 31
Demographics: Speak English less than very well (5 yrs.+) 14% 12% 13.0% 11.0% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2009 Est. 2012 Est. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 09 and 2008 12 American Community Survey multi year estimates 32
Demographics: Teen pregnancies per 1,000 females 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 7.5 21.6 11.3 12.1 33.4 20.0 24.5 17.5 21.0 14.3 31.7 28.9 23.3 16.1 5 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVRC 2009 2012 Source: Virginia Department of Health Health Statistics for 2009 & 2012 33
Demographics: Violent crimes per 100,000 people 350 300 250 200 292 261 233 212 150 100 147 129121 120 121 116 99 92 139 126 50 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2010 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & 2014 34
Prepared by: Lord Fairfax Community College Dr. Cheryl Thompson Stacy President cthompson stacy@lfcc.edu (540) 868 7101 Dr. John Milam Director of Planning & Institutional Effectiveness jmilam@lfcc.edu (540) 868 7249 35