U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2018 Suzanne Thornsbury and Jennifer Bond U.S. Dry Bean Convention U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2013 Dr. Suzanne Bonita Thornsbury Springs, FL and Hodan Farah Wells July 24, 2018 U.S. Dry Bean Convention The Findings and Conclusions in Chicago, This Preliminary IL Presentation Have Not Been Formally Disseminated by July the 30, U.S. 2013 Department of Agriculture and Should Not Be Construed to Represent Any Agency Determination or Policy.
Projected 2018 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance Production 30.23 million cwt Area planted 1.83 million acres Area harvested 1.78 million acres Yield 17.94 cwt/acre Smaller crop than the 2017 record: Area planted and harvested both down 2018 ERS-projected yields slightly higher due to return to trend and improvement in drought conditions Forecast production down 15 percent; just above average since 2012 2
U.S. All Dry Bean Planted Area Source: USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service 3
U.S. Dry Beans: Acres Harvested 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 Million acres Dry Bean Wheat Corn Million acres 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2018f: Dry Bean acres decrease ~12% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 4
Bags (cwt)/acre 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 U.S. Dry Bean Average Yield 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018f 2018f: increase less than 1% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 5
Crop Condition* State Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent CO 12 25 14 38 11 ID 0 1 22 72 5 MI 6 13 42 33 6 MN 2 3 13 44 38 MT 1 4 16 65 14 ND 0 0 17 72 11 OR 0 5 60 5 0 WA 0 0 11 89 0 WY 0 0 7 93 0 *Share of Crop, mid-july, reported by USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. 6
U.S. Dry Bean Acres and Dry Bean/Corn Price Ratio Million acres Price Ratio 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Dry bean acres planted Dry bean/corn price ratio (t-1) 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17p 19f 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Data Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted). 7
U.S. Dry Bean Production Million cwt 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18f Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 8
S&U: Dry Beans (supply) Year Production Imports Beginning Stocks Total Supply --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- 1980s 2357 59 1171 3587 1990s 2911 87 1388 4385 2000s 2440 245 1091 3830 2010-17 2897 315 1042 4253 2018f 3023 382 1013 4418 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 9
S&U: Dry Beans (utilization) Year Exports Seed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- 1980s 887 92 1156 1452 1990s 857 97 1466 1965 2000s 742 83 1082 1923 2010-17 1044 86 1043 2080 2018f 1125 108 779 2406 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 10
World Dry Bean: Production, Avg. 2014-2016 Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Mexico China, mainland United Republic of Tanzania United States of America Brazil India Myanmar 0 1 2 Million lbs 3 4 5 6 Excludes chickpeas, cowpeas, and broad beans. Data Source: United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAOSTAT. 11
Dry Bean Trade 12
U.S. All Dry Bean Trade Share 30 25 Share of use imported Share of supply exported 20 15 10 5 0 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-2018f 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 13
U.S. Dry Beans Trade 1/ Million pounds Exports Imports 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 14
U.S. Dry Bean Top 10 Export Destinations, 2016/17 These 10 countries account for about 70% of all US dry bean exports in 2016/17. Canada Mexico Italy United Kingdom Spain Dominican Republic Pakistan Brazil Costa Rica Turkey Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 15
U.S. Exports to World Regions, 2017 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 16
Share of U.S. Dry Bean Imports Share Canada Mexico China Nicaragua Other 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 17
Dry Beans by Class 18
Dry Bean Production, by Class Pinto Navy (pea) Great Northern Black All Kidney Garbanzo Other Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990s 2000s 2010-2018f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2018 values are forecast. 19
Projected Dry Bean Production, by Class 2018f 2% 5% 11% 3% Navy Great Northern 30% 14% 6% Black Red kidney Garbanzo Pinto Small Red Others 29% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2018 values are forecast. 20
U.S. Pinto Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ Million cwt $/cwt 16 Production Dealer price 70 14 60 12 50 10 40 8 30 6 4 20 2018f production decrease over 30%; Dealer price up 11% 2 0 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18f 10 0 1/ Dealer Price is from Northeast Colorado. Data Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production); USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (prices). 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 21
U.S. Pinto Beans: Trade 1/ 17/18 MY exports are running about 6% ahead of the 2016/17 pace through May. Million lbs 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Exports Imports 1/ 2017/18 Data are projected based on total sales through May of 2018. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 22
U.S. Pinto Bean Export Shares Share Dominican Republic Mexico Haiti Mozambique Other 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 23
U.S. Navy Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ 2018: production decrease 20%; dealer price projected up ~4% Million cwt. 9 Production Dealer price $/cwt 70 8 7 6 60 50 5 40 4 30 3 2 1 20 10 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18f 0 1/ Dealer Price from Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices). 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 24
Million lbs. 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 U.S. Navy Beans: Trade 1/ Exports Imports 2017/18 exports are projected down ~7% from 16/17; slight rebound expected in 18/19 1/ 2017/18 Data are projected based on total sales through May of 2018. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 25
Share 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Navy Bean Export Shares Other Mexico South Africa Canada United Kingdom Italy Sales to the EU ~70% of U.S. exports sales in MY 17/18 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 26
U.S. Black Beans: Domestic Utilization and Per Capita Availability Million lbs. 500 2010-18p 0.91 lbs/ capita Lbs. per person 1.60 1.40 400 300 1990-99 0.32 lbs/ capita 2000-09 0.52 lbs/ capita 1.20 1.00 0.80 200 100 0 1980-89 0.03 lbs/ capita 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18f 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 27
U.S. Black Beans: Value of Production $ million 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 90 95 00 05 10 15 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 28
Black Bean Export Shares Share 1.0 Mexico Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Brazil Other 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18* Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 29
U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Production and Yield Million cwt 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Production Yield Poly. (Production) cwt/acre 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.0 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18f 0.00 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 30
U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Utilization and Per Capita Availability 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Million lbs. Exports Other Use Per capita Lbs/person 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17p 18f 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 2018 values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 31
U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Key Export Destinations Share 1.00 Spain Pakistan Turkey India Italy Algeria UAE Other 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18* Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. * 2017/18 Trade data available through May 2018. 32
Grower Prices 33
Average Grower Price, All Beans and Garbanzo $/cwt 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 All beans Garbanzo 10.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018f Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 34
U.S. Dry Beans, All: Monthly Grower Prices $/cwt 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 $28.00 2010/11 Monthly Grower All Bean Price ($/CWT) $42.10 2011/12 $38.00 2012/13 $39.10 2013/14 $32.3 2014/15 $27.3 2015/16 $29.2 2016/17 2017/18 All Dry Bean price projected at $27.8/cwt; 2018/19f price is at $28.60/cwt 30.00 25.00 20.00 Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2018/19 forecast by ERS. 35
Grower Prices: Producer Bid Level Variety (Location) 2016 2017p 2018 forecast Navy (MI) 30.55 27.39 29.88 Pinto (ND/MN) 28.60 21.84 24.78 Black (MI) 35.29 28.81 31.15 Light red kidney (MN/WI) Dark red kidney (MN/WI) 32.75 35.00 36.83 34.57 34.57 32.71 Garbanzo 31.13 31.72 26.84 Great Northern (NE/WY) 28.88 21.75 28.18 Small Red (WA/ID) 27.79 27.83 30.58 Pink (WA/ID) 31.00 29.79 30.43 Bid Level: Producer Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service. 36
Summary 2017 crop: All dry bean production in 2017 up 25% over 2016 Significant gains for pintos, blacks, garbanzos Total supplies up 613 million pounds, offsets gains in use Ending stocks up 7% year-to-year 2018 crop: Area planted to dry beans reported sharply down from 2017 Production down 560 million pounds; total supplies down ~7% Ending stocks reduced nearly 200 million lbs Increasing tightness in the balance sheet and rising commodity (wheat, corn) prices support higher prices 2017/18f and 2018/19f prices: 2017/18f all dry bean price ($27.25/cwt) down from 2016/17 ($29.20/cwt) on higher production 2018/19f all dry bean price ($28.60/cwt) 37
Thank you http://www.ers.usda.gov/ Please contact Jennifer Bond for more information jkbond@ers.usda.gov/(202)694-5326