Commodity: TURMERIC (May) S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 5714 5938 6224 6448 6734 Fundamentals Turmeric futures (May) is expected to remain stuck in the range of 6200-6545 levels. In days to come, we may see fewer business activities on the spot markets as on account of Mariamman festival, all the turmeric markets will be closed for nine days till April 7th. Beforehand last week, the buyer traders have purchased all the good quality turmeric for their demand and some traders have decided to store few bags of best quality turmeric. Also, the stockiest are very cautious in buying the turmeric as they feel at present the price may not be improved. On the supply side, the arrival for Erode markets is very low when compared to very heavy arrival of turmeric at Nizamabad. At present Mysore and Dharmapuri turmeric is arriving for sale. The markets have seen some steady gains after a significant fall since the beginning of the new season as the traders were covering fresh demand for the upcountry markets. The strength in both spot as well as futures markets are expected to remain temporary as the markets are expected to be flushed with new arrivals. The initial arrivals had more than 25% to 30% moisture content which led to less buying interest from the traders and stockists. The huge production anticipation and stocks which are unsold with both traders and government stocks which was purchased last season are unlikely to push the prices higher. Erode markets are expected to witness higher arrivals from coming week which will exert pressure on the prices. The intensity of arrivals with limited demand from consumers will keep a tag on prices. Due to moisture content in new crop supply buyers reported unresponsive. In some spot markets, turmeric was traded at very low prices due to inferior quality arrival as a result of off season supply. In Duggirala market new turmeric is likely to enter during first week of April.
Commodity: JEERA (May) S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 15027 15353 15652 15978 16277 Fundamentals Jeera futures (May) will possibly witness a rise to test 16000-16300, taking support near 15220 levels. This rally may get fueled by prospects that India's jeera exports in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar) are estimated to rise 4.4% to about 150,000 tn. The fall in output in Syria and Turkey on account of loss of quality due to weather adversities will possibly make India the sole supplier in the international market. Syria produces around 15,000 tn of jeera annually, but most of the crop in 2018-19 was lost to heavy rains, while the 15,000-20,000 tn produced by Turkey was too expensive to compete in the international market. Iran grows 8,000-10,000 tn of the spice, but most of this was consumed locally and the rest sold to Japan. So far this quarter, most export deals for Indian jeera have been struck in a range of $2,000- $2,100 per tn. Prices are likely to witness a moderate correction from the current levels before bouncing back. At present the buying interests from global markets have slowed down as the players are waiting the new crop from Turkey and Syria which will start to arrive from May and June. During last week exporters were active in physical purchases to cover their export commitments taking advantage of low domestic prices with FOB EX-mundra (99% cleaned Singapore) quoting at USD 2264 per MT up by USD 20/MT from last week. Any indication of lower output from these origins will propel Indian cumin exports which will drive the markets. Until then domestic demand story will drive the markets. India, the world's largest producer and exporter of the spice, primarily exports the commodity to China, the US, Bangladesh, Vietnam, West Asia, Brazil, and Sri Lanka.
Commodity: CORIANDER (May) S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 5938 6343 6619 7024 7300 Fundamentals Coriander futures (May) is in overbought zone, hence fresh buying is not recommended at these levels. In event of profit booking, lower level buying can be done near 6600, eyeing a target of 7200 levels. The reason being is because of strong demand for the new crop which is of superior quality. Arrivals of coriander with ideal moisture content of 8-10% have begun, and this had led to a rise in demand. The sentiments are strong because of a surge in demand amid a likely fall in production in key growing areas of Rajasthan and Gujarat. According to a survey conducted Indian Spice Stakeholders and Agriculture Produce Market Committee, output in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) in Rajasthan is seen at 91,920 tn, down 13% on year. In Gujarat, output is likely to more than halve on year at 38,890 tn. Coriander prices in physical markets are trading on a bullish note on the back of renewed buying interests from stockists as well as traders. The millers are active in the markets trying to cover their requirements. Export buying which is also seen is aiding to the demand keeping the prices high.
Commodity: CARDAMOM (May) S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 1408 1547 1619 1759 1831 Cardamom futures are trading near its two year high of 1735 levels & this bullish is likely to prevail on the back of concerns of supply in the peak season. The far month May contract is likely to witness a rally towards 1800-1850. With the season almost coming to the end we cannot expect selling pressure at every higher levels. The arrival of the material at the centres have depleted due to less availability of stocks with the producers. India's output of small cardamom in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) is likely to fall around 30% from last year's 20,640 tn. Weather remains a major concerns for the new crop as the temperature at Iddukki and other main cardamom growing regions remain high and there has been no report of rains. The impact of the new crop will be felt depending on the pre monsoon shower in April and May which will set the tone for the new crop. Due to excessive and high-intensity rainfall and heavy winds that led to floods in high-range areas where cardamom grows, severe destruction occurred to the crop. It will take a year to come back to normal and for new plants to grow. Cardamom prices at the auction centres have been steady for last few weeks in the wake of drought-like conditions in the entire Idukki region, the main cardamom growing centre. The rain deficit in the Vandanmedu and Valpara regions has made it difficult to make any predictions on the ensuing crop season in the June-July period. Normally, this area should have received at least two or three good summer showers by this time. But this has not happened, affecting proper irrigation in cardamom plantations. One rain per month is ideal for cardamom plantations. The drying of the base level of the plant has resulted in poor panickle formation and resultant flowering, which will have an impact on production in the coming season. Normally flowering starts with the summer rains. The rain deficit has also affected replanting and rejuvenation of plantations that have been hit by last year s floods.
FORWARD CURVES 6,400 Forward curve of Turmeric futures 6,350 6,370 6,300 6,250 6,200 6,266 6,150 6,100 6,084 6,162 6,050 April May June July Source: NCDEX Closing as on 29th March, 2019 15,770 Forward curve of Jeera futures 15,750 15,750 15,730 15,735 15,710 15,690 15,670 15,680 15,650 April May June Source: NCDEX Closing as on 29th March, 2019
6,950 Forward cruve of Coriander futures 6,900 6,912 6,850 6,800 6,830 6,750 6,700 6,748 6,650 6,656 6,600 April May June July Source: NCDEX Closing as on 29th March, 2019 1,700 Forward curve of Cardamom futures 1,680 1,660 1,680 1,686 1,640 1,641 1,620 1,625 1,600 1,580 April May June July August 1,600 Source: MCX Closing as on 29th March, 2019
State Prices March, 2019 Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Turmeric during March, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal) Prices February, 2019 Prices March, 2018 % Change(Over Previous Month) % Change(Over Previous Year) Andaman and Nicobar 10250 - - - - Andhra Pradesh 5294.43 5142.01 6013.43 2.96-11.96 Chattisgarh 6570.43 6357.46 6273.89 3.35 4.73 Gujarat 9000 9388.83 9372.47-4.14-3.97 Karnataka 6181.75 6748.39 6796.18-8.4-9.04 Kerala 10172.29 10112.12 9434.21 0.6 7.82 Madhya Pradesh 7298.51 5374.79-35.79 - Maharashtra 8920.23 9201.3 9702.59-3.05-8.06 Meghalaya 14094.74 6152.63 6400 129.08 120.23 Mizoram 18000 14203.82 - - Odisha 5408.27 5873.7 5936.02-7.92-8.89 Tamil Nadu 6027.45 6018.34 7004.12 0.15-13.94 Telangana 5083.09 4958.36 5618.38 2.52-9.53 Uttar Pradesh 1872.52 2556.64 10416.58-26.76-82.02 Uttrakhand - - 7500 - - West Bengal 6956.49 7385.94 7305.14-5.81-4.77 Average 7366.44 7376.46 7998.34 *Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Jeera during March, 2019 (Prices in Rs/Quintal) State Prices March, 2019 Prices February, 2019 Prices March, 2018 % Change(Over Previous Month) % Change(Over Previous Year) Chattisgarh 6875 10000 5000-31.25 37.5 Gujarat 14413.16 15329.94 13458.63-5.98 7.09 Karnataka 8209 8836 4492.5-7.1 82.73 Kerala 20312.5 22142.86 22025-8.27-7.78 Madhya Pradesh 12813.97 12580 13341.5 1.86-3.95 Maharashtra 23000 23000 25000 0-8 Rajasthan 13474.65 14442.44 13658.86-6.7-1.35 Uttrakhand - 22800 - - Average 14156.9 15190.18 14972.06 *Report Generation: As per the data reported by APMCs
Spread charts of Futures & Spot prices Daily spread chart of Turmeric futures & Spot (Source: Reuters) Daily spread chart of Jeera futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)
Daily spread chart of Coriander futures & Spot (Source: Reuters) Daily spread chart of Cardamom futures & Spot (Source: Reuters)