UK Foodservice Trends & Implications for Suppliers

UK Foodservice Trends & Implications for Suppliers

Remember. UK accounts for 43% of Irish food & drink exports in 2009

Economic Overview Gross Domestic Product Average Earnings Unemployment Rate UK GDP declined by 5.2% in Q3 09 vs. YA Growth rates in average earnings, excluding bonuses, has dropped to 1.9% (JJA 09) Unemployment rate rose to 7.9% (JJA 09) Inflation Consumer Confidence Consumer Price Index dropped to 1.1% in September 09, which is below the target inflation growth rate of 2.0% Consumer confidence index improved from -16 in August 09 to -10 in September 09

Total OOH Sales declined sourcing to a decline in Traffic SALES -2.5% YE Sep 08: 46.4 Billion YE Sep 09: 45.3 Billion TRAFFIC -2.8% YE Sep 08: 12.5 Billion YE Sep 09: 12.1 Billion AVE IND SPEND +0.3% YE Sep 08: 3.72 YE Sep 09: 3.73 Av. Number of Items +2.6% Total OOH: Components of Spending- YE Sep 09 vs YA Price/Item -2.2%

QSR gained Traffic share whereas the Workplace and Travel & Leisure lost share Commercial Vending College/Uni Pubs 1.7 1.6 6.1 6 6.1 6.1 7.4 7.2 14.2 13.7 FSR inc Cafe 22.2 21.7 Travel & Leisure Workplace 42.4 43.8 QSR Traffic Distribution by channel YE Sep 08 YE Sep 09

Domino s, Mc Donalds & KFC the winners in downturn Components of Sale YE Sep 09 vs. YA Total QSR Sales +1.5% Sales +11.0% Sales +9.6% Sales +10.7% Traffic +0.4% Ind Spend +1.2% Traffic +6.7% Ind Spend +4.1% Traffic -2.0% Ind Spend +11.8% Traffic +5.0% Ind Spend +5.4% Total Sales -0.2% Sales +3.9% Sales -2.0% Sales +11.2% Traffic -2.6% Ind Spend +2.5% Traffic +4.3% Ind Spend -0.5% Traffic +2.4% Ind Spend -4.3% Traffic +7.2% Ind Spend +3.7%

Menurama - Price The average dish price (across all courses) is 6.16, a 4.1% year-on-year increase and a 1.3% increase over the preceding 6 months. This is counterbalanced by a continued increase in the availability of promotional menu meal deals A 3 course restaurant meal (without alcohol) = 19.93 33.7% more than it would for a pub meal ( 14.91) Between July 08-09 the average pub starter price in Pubs 10.6% Restaurants 2.2% increase Hotels 9% increase

Average Dish Price All Channels All figures are in except percentages Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Percentage Change Over Past Year Starter 4.03 4.08 4.27 4.72 4.82 4.74 4.70 4.88 5.24 11.5% Main Course 7.70 7.86 7.93 8.28 8.49 8.59 8.73 8.86 8.95 1.5% Dessert 3.43 3.45 3.55 3.75 3.81 3.89 3.97 4.05 4.48 9.8% Snack 3.91 3.90 4.16 4.17 4.29 4.33 4.32 4.52 4.58 3.7% Average - Total Menu 5.41 5.45 5.72 5.79 5.93 5.91 5.92 6.08 6.16 2.4% Note: Data includes all food category types (snacks, side orders, specials, children's meals, main course, desserts etc) but not drinks

Menurama Menu Structure Main course breakdown: 1. Meat 2. Poultry 3. Fish/Seafood Main course (excl burgers and pizzas) chicken breast is most popular followed by fish & chips, rump steak, combination dishes and sausages & mash Seafood : Salmon, Prawn, Tuna, Scampi & Haddock Fewer changes in range and price to children s menus compared with adult menus Desserts: ice cream, cheesecake, sundae, brownie & chocolate cake Weight decreases are especially evident amongst fillet, rump & sirloin steaks over the past year

Menu Structure cont Cuisine type: 1. Generic 2. British / American - pubs & hotels 3. Italian & American - restaurants The frequency of dishes marked as containing nuts, wheat or gluten free are considerably lower than those marked as suitable for vegetarians both as a true reflection of dish properties but also due to the relative newness of these concepts in the dining arena OPPORTUNITY

Promotional Activity Continuation of heavy brand promotion amongst the large chain operators such as Wetherspoon, TRG, Pizza Express etc http://www.toptable.com/en-gb/venues/offers/?l=7 But where will this madness end???

Innovation Menu innovation is still alive and well - 45.2% of Menurama dishes were new Imaginative new dishes include Scream s Quorn & Chianti lasagne, Old Orleans Catfish bites and Chef & Brewer s Shropshire Blue And Quince Tart Other forms of innovation.packaging, presentation etc OPPORTUNITY

Back to the drawing board

There are opportunities you just have to have the right proposition

Top 20 Main Courses 1. Beefburger / Cheeseburger 2. Pizza 3. Chicken Breast 4. Fish & Chips 5. Rump Steak 6. Chicken Burger 7. Combo 8. Sausage & Mash 9. Sirloin Steak 10. Risotto 11. Roast Chicken 12. Sunday Lunch 13. Beef Lasagne 14. Platter 15. Rib Eye Steak 16. Chicken Pasta 17. Steak & Ale Pie 18. Scampi & Chips 19. Tomato Pasta 20. Pork Ribs Back

New Dishes: By Course 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Main Course Side Order Dessert Starter Snack Light Meal Children's Meal (All courses) Meal Deal (Adults) Breakfast Sharing Dish Meal Deal (Children) Nibbles 10% 0% New Dishes Existing Dishes

New Dishes: By Outlet Type 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Pub Restaurant Hotel Restaurant Bar Restaurant Pasta House Restaurant & Bar Budget Hotel Pizza Restaurant American Diner Bar & Grill Café Bar Fish Restaurant Road House Tapas Bar Steakhouse Other 0% New Dishes Other = Irish Bar, Vodka Bar, In-Store Restaurant, Noodle Bar Existing Dishes

New Main Course Dishes By Protein: Red & White Meat 100% 90% Other = Bison, Ostrich, Pigeon, Pepperoni, Prosciutto, Salami, Turkey, Venison, Wild Boar 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% New Dishes Existing Dishes Beef Fish & Seafood Chicken Pork Lamb Unspecified Ham Bacon Mixed Duck Gammon Veal Chorizo Pancetta Guineafowl Other