AMERICA LATINA Y CHINA: PRINCIPALES CARACTERISTICAS DE SUS RELACIONES ECONOMICAS Y COMERCIALES Rhys Jenkins School of Development Studies University of East Anglia Norwich, UK
CHINA S GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE GDP growth > 9% p.a since 1980 Fourth largest economy in GDP Increased openness trade/gdp increased from<10% in 1970s to >60% in 2003-2005 Share of world trade increased from 1% in 1980 to >6.5% in 2005 Approx 8% of world FDI flows in 2003-2005 went to China China accounted for 13% of global growth between 1995-2004
THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CHINA ON LATIN AMERICA A growing market for Latin American exports An increased source of competition in the domestic market A destination for Latin American FDI A new source of FDI in Latin America
CHINA S IMPORTS FROM LATIN AMERICA HAVE GROWN SPECTACULARLY China and HK Imports from Latin America, 1990-2006 4.50E+10 4.00E+10 3.50E+10 3.00E+10 2.50E+10 US$ 2.00E+10 1.50E+10 1.00E+10 5.00E+09 0.00E+00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 HK Imports China + HK Imports
BUT CHINA, IS STILL LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THE US AND EU AS A DESTINATION FOR LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS EXPORT S OF 19 LAT IN AMERICAN COUNT RIES BY DEST INAT ION, 2006 Chin a+hk 4% Rest of Wor ld 35% USA 48% EU 13 %
CONTRIBUTION OF CHINA TO GROWTH OF EXPORTS FROM LATIN AMERICA, 1996-2001, 2001-2006 China+HK USA EU Rest of World 1996-2001 1.9% 88.9% 2.9% 6.3% 2001-2006 6.5% 38.9% 15.0% 39.6%
CHINA S SHARE OF LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS, 2006 Share of China in Total Exports, 2006 25.0% 20.0% 15. 0 % 10. 0 % 5.0% 0.0%
LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS TO CHINA ARE DOMINATED BY PRIMARY PRODUCTS AND RESOURCE BASED MANUFACTURES Structure of Chinese Imports from Latin America and the Caribbean, 2006 Low -tech 3% Med-tech 5% Hi-tech 9% Others 0% RBM 19% Primary 64%
EXPORTS TO CHINA ARE CONCENTRATED IN A SMALL NUMBER OF PRODUCTS (2006 data) ARGENTINA Soya beans (40.9%) Crude petroleum (25.7%) Soya bean oil (18.0%) Leather (3.9%) BRAZIL Iron ore & concentrates (35.4%) Soya beans (28.9%) Crude petroleum (9.9%) Leather (4.5%) CHILE Copper ore and concentrates (44.3%) Refined copper (33.9%) Chemical wood pulp (5.8%) Fishmeal (3.5%) Copper ore and concentrates (1.7%) Chemical wood pulp (4.1%) Copper waste & scrap (2.0%)
CHINA S EXPORTS TO LATIN AMERICA HAVE GROWN RAPIDLY PARTICULARLY SINCE 2003 China and Hong Kong Exports to Latin America, 1990-2006 5.00E+10 4.50E+10 4.00E+10 3.50E+10 3.00E+10 US$ 2.50E+10 2.00E+10 1.50E+10 1.00E+10 5.00E+09 0.00E+00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Hong Kong China + HK
CHINA, US AND EU SHARES OF LATIN AMERICAN IMPORTS Imports of 19 Latin American Countries, 2006 China + HK 9% Rest of World 46% USA 31% EU 14%
CHINA S SHARE OF LATIN AMERICAN IMPORTS, 2006 Share of China in Total Imports, 2006 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
IMPORTS FROM CHINA ARE BECOMING MORE SOPHISTICATED Structure of Chinese Exports to Latin America and the Caribbean, 2006 Hi-tech 24% Others 0% Primary 1% RBM 11% Low -tech 33% Med-tech 31%
ARE CHINESE EXPORTS DISPLACING OTHER EXPORTERS OR DOMESTIC PRODUCERS? Despite rapid growth, overall Chinese imports supply small share of overall demand for manufactures Argentina estimated that 70% of increase in share of China came at expense of other importers, 30% from displacing local production Sectors where local production was displaced batteries & lamps; communications equipment; toys & sports goods;. Brazil medical, precision and optical equipment; office & computing equipment Chile mainly traditional sectors where domestic producers are affected textiles, clothing & footwear
SOME CAVEATS CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF CHINESE IMPORTS Some evidence from Brazil that initially China displaced other exporters but over time increasingly competes with domestic producers Data based on official statistics may underestimate effect in sectors where contraband is significant
LATIN AMERICA S TRADE BALANCE WITH CHINA. 1990-2006 Latin America's Trade Balance with China, 1990-2006 (US $mn.) 10,000.0 5,000.0 0.0-5,000.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-10,000.0-15,000.0-20,000.0-25,000.0-30,000.0 Sout h Amer ica Mexico + DR-CAFTA Lat in Amer ica
TRADE BALANCES OF LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES WITH CHINA + HK, 2006 Trade Balance of Latin American Countries with China + HK, 2006 (US $mn.) -30000.0-25000.0-20000.0-15000.0-10000.0-5000.0 0.0 5000.0 Ar gen t in a Brazil C olombia Cuba Ecuador Guat emala M exico Panama Peru Ven ezuela
CHINESE FDI IN LATIN AMERICA So far FDI from China is small No Latin American country in top 20 recipients Total inflow in 2005 US $50 mn. Brazil - $58mn. (2001-2004) Argentina - $25 mn. up to 2003 Chile - $74mn since 1974 Mexico - $63mn Mainly resource seeking oil, mining, forestry
LATIN AMERICAN FDI IN CHINA Also very limited: Argentina - $95 mn. (1997-2004) Brazil - $15 mn. Stock (2003) Chile - $30 mn. (2002-2005) Mexico - $113 mn.
THE INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CHINA ON LATIN AMERICA Competition from China in third markets Competition with China to attract FDI (will not be analysed directly) Terms of trade effects higher world prices for Latin American exports
COMPETITION FROM CHINA FOR LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS Conventional wisdom Only a problem for a few countries and a few manufacturing sectors Latin America (except Mexico) becoming more complementary to Chinese economy over time Underestimates significance of Chinese competition WTO accession Ending of quotas on textiles
LOSS OF EXPORTS TO CHINA IN THE US MARKET, 2001-2006 Loss of Market Share to China in the USA, 2001-2006 -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Argent ina Brazil Colombia Dom Rep El Sal Honduras Nicaragua Paraguay Uruguay 2004-2006 2001-2006
LOSS OF EXPORTS TO CHINA IN THE EU MARKET, 2001-2006 Loss of Market Share to China in EU, 2001-2006 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Dom Rep El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Paraguay Uruguay 2004-2006 2001-2006
CHINESE EXPORTS AND INTRA- REGIONAL EXPORTS Chinese goods not only competing in developed country markets but also affecting trade within Latin America Brazilian exports to Argentina and Chile affected by Chinese competition Chile (and FTA with China)
IMPACTS ON THE TERMS OF TRADE China not a small country Chinese demand for primary products and current commodity boom Falling prices of manufactured goods exported by China Improved terms of trade of main Latin American countries (except Mexico and Colombia). But terms of trade lower than in 1980.
MAIN COMMODITIES EXPORTED FROM LATIN AMERICA Beef Fish Sugar & honey Cotton Iron ore Copper ore Nickel ores Alumium ores Zinc ores Crude petroleum Soya bean Price rise, 2002-6 20.3% 110.7% 114.5% 24.2% 160.0% 331.1% 257.9% 90.4% 311.1% 157.6% 26.3% Share of China in Increase world demand, 2002-5 100.0% 26.7% 26.0% 90.0% 54.0% 51.0% 87.0% 48.0% 100.0% 30.0% 40.0%
ESTIMATE OF GAIN TO LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES FROM HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES Rough estimates excluding crude petroleum (2002-2006). Argentina - $2.1 bn. (copper; soya) Brazil - $9.1 bn (iron ore; sugar; aluminium; copper; soya; beef) Chile - $18.3bn. (copper; fish) Cf. increase in exports to China: > Brazil and Chile = Argentina
FUTURE PROSPECTS Concerns over bilateral trade flows increasing deficits and shrinking surpluses. But indirect effects are more significant. Concerns here that: There will be further losses to China in export markets Commodity boom may come to an end
FUTURE PROSPECTS (cont.) Prospects of future Chinese FDI flows Possibilities of diversifying exports? Or to make use of surpluses to diversify further.