CHICKPEA WEEKLY REPORT www.levelacommodities.com Contents Market Recap o Domestic o International Outlook Trade Data o Port Lineups-India (Latest) o Monthly Summary Price o Import Parity o CNF Quotes (in USD/MT) o International Price (in INR/Qtl.) o Domestic Prices Chana at NCDEX Cumulative Arrivals Weather Update Annexure o India Balance Sheet Production Estimates by GOI MSP Import Overview Trade Policy Area Trend Crop Calendar Seasonality o Canada o Australia Legend Pulses Nomenclature 28 th November 2017 Market Recap Domestic Chana witnessed slightly weak movement on low buying and govt. hushed on import duty. Chana Tumbles After Hitting One Month Top: NCDEX Chana futures slipped as heavy profit selling was noted in the commodity after recent gains. The NCDEX futures for January hit a one month high in last session but a rather thin undertone in ready market demand for pulses took a toll and the prices slipped. Traders are eyeing a pickup in sowing given the recent government notifications on export and import aimed at boosting the productivity in local pulses and Page 1
in turn giving a fillip to the prices. However, the sowing would gain traction only from next month and till that time; no clear triggers are likely to weigh on the market. NCDEX chana down; govt silent on import duty: Futures contracts of chana fell on the NCDEX, shedding gains that were built in the past couple of weeks on talk of likely import duty. Higher arrivals and weakness in the futures contracts pulled down prices of chana. Good Rabi Seeding Progress: Seeding of this year's rabi season pulse crops slowed during the past week but is moving forward at a faster pace than last year. During the week, farmers planted 1.745 million hectares, compared to 1.498 million during the same week last year and the recent five-year average for the past week of 2.03 million hectares. Land in all pulses of all rabi season pulses totals 8.124 million so far, this season, compared to 6.046 million at this time last year and the recent average of 7.374 million. (Source-Stat Pub) State Wise Sowing as on 24/11/2017: All India Chana State wise sowing up by 16% to 7.29 Mln ha. from 6.28 Mln Ha. Chana State-Wise Area Covered % Change 2017-18 (In Ha.) 2016-17 (In Ha.) Andhra Pradesh 331000 195000 70 Bihar 33000 34000-3 Chhattisgarh 44100 82400-46 Gujrat 171100 71500 139 Haryana 42000 47000-11 Himachal Pradesh 100 1200-92 Jharkhand 38900 28500 36 Odisha 4000 6600-39 Punjab 2000 3000-33 Karnataka 1220000 868000 41 Maharashtra 1037300 934600 11 Madhya Pradesh 2752000 1960000 40 West Bengal 1000 1000 0 Uttarakhand 1000 1000 0 Uttar Pradesh 450300 538700-16 Telangana 74000 69000 7 Tamil Nadu 500 1100-55 Rajasthan 1092500 1440700-24 Total 7295800 6283400 16 Chana Production Target 2017-18 State (Area in Ha. & Production in MT) 2017-18 2016-17 % Change Target Final estimate Area Production Area Production Area Production Andhra Pradesh 475,000 652,000 397,000 418,000 20% 56% Maharashtra 2,035,000 1,908,000 1,895,000 1,987,000 7% -4% Chhattisgarh 390,000 438,860 375,370 412,910 4% 6% Rajasthan 1,500,000 1,425,000 1,548,000 1,391,000-3% 2% Page 2
Rajasthan aims 2017-18 chana output at 1.43 million tonne vs 1.39 million tonne. Production of all rabi crops in Rajasthan, barring chana and barley, is seen lower this year. Among pulses, the state aims around 3% higher chana output at 1.43 million tonne. Rajasthan is the third largest producer of chana in the country. Maharashtra targets 2017-18 chana output 1.91 MMT vs 1.99 MMT on lower productivity with higher planted area. All India Post Monsoon Rainfall (in mm) from 01 Oct to 22 Nov 2017 for the country as a whole was 94.1 mm which is 10% down from normal rainfall of 104.4 mm. All India Cumulative arrivals till 26 Nov 2017 - (This Year Vs Last Year)- Marketing Year (Apr.-Mar.) Up by 51 % to 1652320 Tonne from 1092387 Tonne International Canada November Outlook, 2017: Chickpeas For 2017-18, production is estimated at 81 kt, a marginal decrease from last year due to lower area seeded and lower yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be similar to the previous year. Total supply is forecast to decrease as lower carry-in stocks more-than offset the increase in imports. Exports are forecast at 110 kt with the EU, the US and Pakistan as the top markets for August and September. Carry-out stocks are expected to continue to be tight. The average price is forecast to increase, for the third consecutive year, due to strong world demand. The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at record 0.6 million acres, nearly double the area in 2016-17. Assuming lower yields and higher abandonment, 2017-18 US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at a record 0.4 Mt, up sharply from the production in 2016-17. Crop Year (a) Chickpe as 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018f Area Seede d Are a Yield Producti on Impor ts Total Harvested (b) Suppl y 50 5 0 62 4 4 58 5 8 0 6 0 1.8 1.8 1.4 Total Expor Domest Carryout Stocks- ts ic to- (b) Use (c) Stocks Use Ratio Average Price (d) t/ha % $//t 90 14 234 152 62 20 9 815 82 27 129 108 16 5 4 1,000 81 35 121 110 6 5 4 1,200-1,230 Outlook Chana witnessed slightly weak movement on low buying and govt. hushed on import duty. Page 3
Fig in MT Fig in MT Trade Data Monthly Summary: Import-Chick Pea (Chana) 300000 250000 269107 239457 200000 150000 127148 171945 151052 158019 179000 100000 50000 35119 33028 49475 54425 0 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Note: Blue bars shows Govt fig, while yellow bars represent data taken from various sources and it may vary. Export-Chick Pea (Chana) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 19035 11738 4726 5336 4219 3445 2343 2033 1307 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Prices Import Parity - Australian Chana at Mumbai (in INR/MT): Imports are unviable on relative lower domestic prices. Particulars 24-Nov-17 17-Nov-17 CNF at JNPT (Mumbai)-(in USD/MT) 745 745 USD/INR 64.73 64.86 CNF in INR (in INR/MT) 48224 48321 Port Expenses (in INR/MT) 1600 1600 Brokerage (in INR/MT) 300 300 Interest for a Month (8% per month) 321 322 Total Cost at Port (in INR/MT) 50445 50543 Page 4
Price (in INR/Qtl.) 1-Jan-16 1-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 1-Apr-16 1-May-16 1-Jun-16 1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Nov-16 1-Dec-16 1-Jan-17 1-Feb-17 1-Mar-17 1-Apr-17 1-May-17 1-Jun-17 1-Jul-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 1-Dec-17 Prices (in INR/Qtl.) Spot Price at Mumbai (in INR/MT) 50000 49000 Import Parity (in INR/MT) -445-1543 CNF Quotes: Australian Chana at Mumbai (in USD/MT): Date Ready One Month Forward Shipments Two Month Forward Shipments Three Month Forward Shipments Four Month Forward Shipments 17-Nov-17 745 710 690 725 725 24-Nov-17 745 710 690 725 725 International Price at Mumbai (In INR /Qtl.) Variety & Origin 24-11-17 17-11-17 Chana Australia 5000 4900 Chana(Old Crop) Australia 5000 5200 Domestic Prices- (in INR/Qtl.) Chana Black 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 DELHI JAIPUR Chana Delhi 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Rajasthan Origin Page 5
Domestic Prices witnessed range bound movement as compared with the previous week. Commodity Variety State Market 24-11-17 17-11-17 Chana Annagiri Maharashtra Latur 4610 4505 Solapur 4750 4755 Chapa Maharashtra Akola 4795 4600 Dal Delhi Delhi 5895 5805 Jharkhand Jamshedpur 5945 5745 Madhya Pradesh Gwalior 5805 5590 Indore 6095 6100 Maharashtra Jalgaon 5710 5695 Latur 6190 6090 Rajasthan Bikaner 6200 5800 Uttar Pradesh Kanpur Desi Gujarat Dahod 4590 4550 Madhya Pradesh Ashok Nagar Gwalior 4490 4460 Maharashtra Amravati 4495 Rajasthan Alwar Bundi 5010 4595 Jaipur 5000 4705 Kekri Ethiopia Maharashtra Mumbai G 12 Maharashtra Latur 4500 4390 Gauran Maharashtra Jalna 4410 4500 Latur 4340 4300 Kantewala Madhya Pradesh Dewas M.P. Delhi Delhi 5125 4940 Mixed Maharashtra Akola 4205 4005 Jalgaon 4510 4500 Latur 4355 4310 Pila Maharashtra Jalna 4560 4610 Tanzania Maharashtra Mumbai FAQ Andhra Pradesh Vijaywada 5000 4800 Karnataka Gulbarga 5010 4900 Madhya Pradesh Indore 4660 4350 Rajasthan Bikaner 5210 4910 Uttar Pradesh Kanpur 4855 4800 Rajasthan Delhi Delhi 5135 4955 Australia Maharashtra Mumbai 5000 4900 Chana NCDEX NCDEX Chana Future (in INR /Qtl.) as on 24 Nov 2017: Price: 5.3% Volume: -1 % OI: -34 % Page 6
Contract Months Price (in INR/Qtl.) Volume (MT) Open Interest (MT) 24-11-17 17-11-17 % Change 24-11-17 17-11-17 % Change 24-11-17 17-11-17 % Change 20-Dec-17 4,982 4,729 5.3 39130 39650-1 21830 33160-34 19-Jan-18 4,897 4,632 5.7 19790 18170 9 26150 22120 18 20-Mar-18 4,250 4,201 1.2 3610 5120-29 25780 19440 33 20-Apr-18 4,268 4,219 1.2 350 400-13 2450 2250 9 NCDEX Chana Stock Position* (Quantity in MT) Stock Position (in MT) Bikaner 23.10.17 16.10.17 % Change Valid Stock 2552 2491 2.4 Qty. in Progress 0 60-100.0 Total 2552 2551 0.0 *(total quantity including quantity in progress) NCDEX Chana EDD Wise Stock Position (Quantity in MT) Location EDD 16-Oct-17 2-Oct-17 % Change Bikaner 05-Feb-18 30 30 0.0 Bikaner 05-Mar-18 1514 1514 0.0 Bikaner 05-Apr-18 947 665 42.4 Total 2491 2209 12.8 Cumulative Arrival (Qty in MT)- (MY Apr-Mar.) India 2017-18 marketing year cumulative arrivals are up by 45 % till date from last year. MP: +18 % Rajasthan: +163% State This Year Last Year % Change (01/04/2017-26/11/2017) (01/04/2016-26/11/2016) Andhra Pradesh 2843 1427 99 Assam 26208 7771 237 Chhattisgarh 19817 16129 23 Gujarat 36728 19214 91 Haryana 1309 2208-41 Jharkhand 0 84-100 Karnataka 49335 36512 35 Kerala 1362 2169-37 Madhya Pradesh 769960 651064 18 Maharashtra 290719 124263 134 Manipur 1084 996 9 NCT of Delhi 90 37 143 Orissa 21 5 360 Punjab 0 3-100 Rajasthan 251897 95757 163 Tamil Nadu 0 2-100 Page 7
Telangana 710 13 5197 Tripura 81 39 110 Uttar Pradesh 193129 126046 53 Uttarakhand 442 688-36 West Bengal 6586 7961-17 India Total 1652320 1092387 51 Weather Update India Weather Updates: Post Monsoon Rainfall (in mm) from 01 October to 22 November 2017 Region Actual Normal % Departure from Long Period Average All India 94.1 104.4-10 East & Northeast India 185.3 151.9 22 Northwest India 4 38.3-90 Central India 68.6 69.9-2 South Peninsula 204.6 227-10 Page 8
Annexure India Chana Balance Sheet Chana (in '000 MT)- (Marketing Year Apr to March) Attribute 2015-16 2016-17 Est 2017-18 F carry In 1499 824 110 Production 7270 6924 8678 Import 1072 1081 800 Total Supply 9841 8828 9588 Feed seed Retention 700 730 650 Export 217 88 100 Consumption 8100 7900 8100 Total Demand 9017 8718 8850 Ending Stock 824 110 738 Page 9
Trade Policy Pulses (Chana) Trade Financial Year (Apr.- Mar.) Trad e HS Code Pulses/Year 14-15 %Shar e 15-16 %Shar e 16-17 %Shar e 17-18 (Apr- June) 713200 0 Chickpeas (Chana) 190.23 85.64 216.93 84.87 87.91 64.1 40.21 Total Pulses 222.14 255.6 137.2 713200 0 Chickpeas (Chana) 418.87 9.14 1031.48 17.79 1080.63 16.35 243.71 Total Pulses 4584.8 4 5797.7 7 6608.9 5 Indian Pulses Trade Policy and Tariff Schedule 1. Export Policy a) Under Advance Authorization Scheme, import of pulses is allowed for export after domestic processing and value addition (vide DGFT Public Notice No. 51 (RE-2013)/2009-14 dated 14th November 2013). b) The prohibition on exports of Pulses is not applied to export of i. Toor Dal, Urad & Moong - Removal of prohibition on export of pulses (Tur Dal, Moong, urad) -(Notification No. 28/ 2015-2020 Dated 15 Sep.,2017) S.No. Tariff Item HS Code Unit Item Description Existing Policy Amended Policy Policy Conditions 54 `07136000 Kg Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal `07139010 Kg Toor Dal (Split) `07133100 Kg Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek Prohibited Free (i) The export of pulses will be allowed only after registration of contracts with Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA); (ii) Export shall be through Custom EDI ports; (iii) However, export through the non-edi Land Custom Stations (LCS) on Indo- Bangladesh and Indo-Nepal border shall also be allowed subject to registration of quantity with DGFT. Regional Authorities (RAs) in Kolkata & Patna and such other RAs as notified by DGFT from time to time Page 10
will be the designated RAs for the purpose of such registration of quantity. ii. Kabuli Chana and iii. 50,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum. iv. Export of organic pulses and lentils shall be subject to following conditions: Quantity limit shall be 50,000 Tonnes per annum; It should be duly certified by APEDA as being organic pulses and lentils; Export contracts should be registered with APEDA, New Delhi prior to shipment; Export shall be allowed only from Customs EDI Ports. (Note: As per Notification No. 38 ((RE-2012)/2009-14 dated 31st March, 2014&Notification No. 03 /2015-20 dated 19th April, 2017) c) Export of pulses to Bhutan have been exempted from any ban and without any quantitative restriction. (Notification No. 81 (RE-2013)/2009-14 dated 14th June 2014. d) The export of pulses to the Republic of Maldives has been permitted for the years 2014-15 to 2016-17 as per the quantities given below: Pulses export to Maldives (in MT) Year (Apr- Mar.) Export 2014-15 87.85 2015-16 96.63 2016-17 106.29 2. Import Policy Import of Chana, pea and Lentil is free without any quantitative restrictions. While Import of Tur, urad and Moong is restricted with quantitative restrictions. A. Tur Import Restriction (Notification No. 19/ 2015-2020 Dated 5th Aug.,2017) EXIM Code Item Description Existing Policy Existing policy Condition Revised Import Policy Revised Policy Condition `071360 00 Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal Free - Restricted Subject to Policy Condition 2 of this Chapter `071390 Other: `071390 10 `071390 90 Split Other Free - Free except Pigeon Peas (Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal which is Restricted Import of Pigeon Peas is subject to policy Condition 2 of this chapter Policy Condition 2: Import shall be subject to an annual (Fiscal Year) quota of 2 lakh MT as per procedure to be notified. This restriction will not apply to Government's import commitments under any bilateral/regional Agreement/MOU. Page 11
2. Effect of this Notification: Import policy of Pigeon Peas ( Cajanus cajan)/ Toor Dal under EXIM Codes: 07136000,07139010 and 07139090 is revised from 'free' to 'restricted'. Import Tariff Schedule HS Code Commodity Bound Duty Statutory Duty Applied Duty* 0713 20 00 Chickpeas (Garbanzos) 100% 30% Nil * Department of Revenue vide Notification No. 10/2017-Customs dated 28th March, 2017 has imposed 10% import duty on Tur (Arhar). The import duty on remaining pulses is still Nil i.e. 0%. 3.Foreign Trade Agreements for Pulses: HS Code Items Status in FTAs/PTAs ASEAN SAFTA SAFTA DFTP Korea Japan LDC Non-LDC Scheme 0713 20 00 Chickpeas NT-1 0 duty 8% duty 0 duty SEN B 10 Normal Track (NT)-1: Tariff reduced to 0% by December 2013 X-Negative List SEN: Tariff will be reduced to 50% by December 2017 (for Korea) B 10: Duties under this category shall be eliminated in11 annual instalments from the date of coming into force the Agreement. MoP (Margin of Preference) - The reduction of the rate of duty on a product, provided for in a schedule to the Trade Agreement. Chana Rabi Area Figure CROP AREA COVERED AREA COVERED AREA COVERED NORMAL AREA 2016-17 2015-16(In Ha.) 2014-15(In Ha.) (In Ha.) Andhra Pradesh 388000 470000 444000 468000 Bihar 104000 106000 105000 58100 Chhattisgarh 367000 351300 339400 257800 Gujarat 177000 117300 169800 193400 Haryana 58000 61000 89000 81000 Himachal Pradesh 2000 2000 2000 600 Karnataka 1081000 1041000 1041000 929800 Madhya Pradesh 3250000 2916000 2916000 3106000 Maharashtra 1868100 1253700 1232600 1344000 Meghalaya 1900 1800 1800 800 Nagaland 300 300 800 700 Odisha 37000 35100 29500 42800 Punjab 3000 4000 5000 2200 Rajasthan 1751400 1238000 1497000 1455600 Tamil Nadu 5000 4300 6400 7800 Telangana 139000 117000 72000 96000 Uttar Pradesh 643000 400000 590000 589200 West Bengal 26600 33000 33000 23400 Total 9900800 8945400 8574400 8304400 The total acreage sown in 2016-17 stood at 9.9 million hectares as against 8.95 million hectares in the previous year 2015-16, up by 10.7%. Page 12
Acreage under the two top producing states namely Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were up by 11.5% and 41.5% respectively. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, Chana is sown almost 1 month earlier and have recorded an increase in acreage by 49% and 3.8% respectively. However, the yields in these states are below normal owing to lack of rainfall during the cropping season. Price Seasonality (MY MAR-FEB) 10500 9500 8500 7500 6500 5500 4500 Chana-Indore (Desi) 3500 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016-17 2017-18 3 Yr. Avg. 5 Yr. Avg. In Indore, the Sep. month average prices is INR/Qtl 5719, down from 8318 last year, also down from 6236 three year avg. and up from 4912 five year average. Australia (Area, Yield Production) Updated September (ABARES) Chickpea Production (Australia) Commodity unit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 s 2016 17 s 2017 18 f Chickpeas kt 852 562 674 1140 1978 985 Chickpea Area (Australia) Commodity unit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 s 2017 18 f Chickpeas 000 ha 574 508 425 677 1,052 1,099 Chickpea Yield(Australia) Commodity unit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 s 2017 18 f Chickpeas t/ha 1.42 1.24 1.31 1.29 1.76 1.08 Page 13
Chana Crop Calendar - India India Harvest Calendar State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Punjab Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Source: Indian Council of Agricultural Research (Crop Science Division Legend International Prices are in Rs/ MT or USD/MT; Domestic prices are in Rs./Qtl. Arrivals & Weekly Impex figures are in MTs Area in ha. 1 Quintal (Qtl.) = 100 Kgs. Pulses Nomenclature Bengal Gram- Chana/ Chickpea/ Gram Green Gram- Moong/ Mung Black Gram- Urad/ Udid/ Black Matpe Red Gram- Tur/ Arhar/ Pigeon Pea Lentil- Masoor/ Masur Peas- Yellow pea/ Dry Pea/ Kaspa Pea/ Dun Pea Page 14