USDA iiiiillllllllll United States Department of Agriculture U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico Linda Calvin and Steven Zahniser U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Presentation to the seminar entitled Farm Workers in Mexico and the United States Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center Washington, DC, November 15, 217 Views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service, USDA, or other entities participating in this research. Economic Research Service www. ers. usda.gov
U.S.-Mexico fruit and vegetable trade at a glance In 216, U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico reached about 1 million metric tons with a total value of about $12.4 billion. This trade accounted for about: 43 percent of total U.S. fruit and vegetable imports (from all countries) 54 percent of U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico 4 percent of U.S. merchandise imports from Mexico In this presentation, we will focus on different types of fresh or frozen fruit and vegetables, which accounted for about 92 percent of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico in 216. The United States also participates in U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade as an exporter: U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico equaled about $17.8 billion in 216. Grains, oilseeds, meat, and related products accounted for about three-fourths of this trade. Fruit and vegetables accounted for about 7 percent. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Census Bureau, as cited by USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 2
U.S. produce imports: Mexico is the largest foreign supplier of vegetables and fruit (when bananas are excluded) 1, 9, 8, 7, 1, short tons 6, 5, 4, 3, ROW Canada Mexico 2, 1, 199 216 199 216 199 216 Vegetables (fresh and frozen) Fruit (fresh, frozen, and dried but excluding bananas) Bananas Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. 3
Demand Availability of farm labor in Mexico is one of many factors driving U.S. produce imports Consumer demand for year-round supplies of fresh produce A desire for a healthier diet Partial shift in consumption from canned and frozen product to fresh produce Increased per capita consumption of certain fruit and vegetables New interest in tropical fruit (avocados, papayas, mangos) Supply Favorable climates in other countries for growing fruit and vegetables, often complementing U.S. growing seasons Greater availability of farm labor in Mexico and other countries Trade liberalization (NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, Peru, Colombia) Regulatory coordination and trade facilitation (changes in phytosanitary rules for avocados form one example) New technologies (protected cultures, including greenhouses and shade houses, and new varieties, among other factors) New commodities grown in Mexico (berries) Food safety challenges (raspberries, cantaloupe) New transportation infrastructure reduces transport costs from some areas: Increased use of Laredo and Weslaco Ports of Entry Increased participation of U.S. producers, buyers, and investors in produce sectors of Mexico and other countries as a way to reduce weather risks, to obtain product to fill out the calendar year, and to lower labor costs USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 4
Tomatoes: The leading U.S. vegetable import from Mexico in 216 (volume) All others 29% Tomatoes 29% Onions and shallots 6% Bell peppers 7% Squash 7% Chili peppers 1% Cucumbers 12% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. 5
Avocados: The leading U.S. fruit import from Mexico in 216 (volume) All others 27% Avocados 22% Strawberries, fresh 5% Papayas 5% Limes (fresh or dried) Mangoes 15% 8% Watermelons 18% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. 6
Tomatoes USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 7
Protected culture technology has transformed Mexican shipments to the United States Protected culture (PC) is a broad term than covers high-tech greenhouses to low-tech shade houses. Began in the mid-199s in Canada Applied commercially first in Canada, then in the United States, and finally in Mexico which is now the powerhouse in the industry Primary commodities are tomatoes, bell peppers, and cucumbers Canadian and U.S. greenhouses are very high-tech and expensive Mexican operations are a mix of high-tech greenhouses and lower-tech shade houses Analytical challenge: low-quality data on U.S. greenhouse production USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 8
U.S. tomato market: Import share has risen from 17 to 54 percent Field production Imports (field and PC) Exports (field and PC) Per capita consumption Import share of consumption Million lbs Lbs. Percent 199-92 3,561 675 32 15 17 214-16 3,286 3,65 217 21 54 Percent change -8 434-32 35 212 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 9
California and Florida fresh-market tomato production: Florida s production has declined since the early 199s 1, cwt. 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 California Florida Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS. 1
U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) and field and PC imports, 199-216: Imports from Mexico now exceed U.S. production Million lbs. 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 199 1995 2 25 21 215 U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) Canada Mexico Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS. 11
PC and field roma tomatoes now account for the majority of U.S. tomato imports from Mexico Tons 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Cherry Roma Grape All PC tomatoes All others (round) Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. 12
Cucumbers USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 13
U.S. cucumber production decreased by 22 percent since 199-92 Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and (field and consumption of PC) PC) consumption Million lbs. Lbs. Percent 199-92 average 876 43 82 5 34 214-16 average 687 1,81 31 8 73 Percent change -22 347-63 62 118 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 14
U.S. imports of field-produced cucumbers from Mexico exceed imports of PC-cucumbers Million lbs. 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 199 1995 2 25 21 215 US field Mexican field Canadian PC (greenhouse) Mexican PC Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 15
Bell peppers USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 16
U.S. bell pepper market: Imports soar 514 percent Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and PC) (field and PC) consumption of consumption Million lbs Lbs Percent 199-92 average 1/ 63 211 169 2.8 26 214-16 average 865 1,294 19 7.2 64 Percent change 37 514-36 161 146 1/ Fresh production, per capita consumption, and import share of consumption based on 199-91 average. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA AMS, and USDA, NASS. 17
U.S. bell pepper field production: After initial increases, Florida and California s fresh-market production has declined 1/ 1, cwt. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 199 1995 2 25 21 Florida fresh California fresh 1/ There are data problems for California bell peppers in the mid 199s and those numbers are not shown. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and USDA/NASS. 18
U.S. bell pepper imports from Mexico: About evenly balanced between field and PC product M lbs. 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Mexico field Mexico PC Total Canadian and Mexican imports Canada PC (greenhouse) US-all fresh field Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce. 19
Berries USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 2
U.S. berry supply: Strawberries still the leading berry consumed in the United States Million lbs. 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 199-92 214-16 199-92 214-16 199-92 214-16 199-92 214-16 Strawberries Raspberries Blueberries Blackberries Production Imports Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 21
U.S. berry market overview: Mexico supplies almost all imports, except blueberries StrawB RaspB BlueB BlackB 1/ Percent change (199-92 to 214-16) U.S. production 161 516 544 74 Per-capita consumption 128 1,164 931 NA Imports 1,84 4,792 1,334 2,687 Percent (214-16) Import share of consumption 14 55 53 NA MX share of imports 1 98 9 95 1/ Growth in blackberry production is based on data from 28 and 216 only. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce. 22
U.S. strawberry shipments: Imports of Mexican strawberries for the winter season increased between 199 and 216 1, lbs. 3, 2,5 216 199 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov California Florida Mexico Other imports Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 23
Growth in U.S. strawberry supplies: Florida production is leveling off Million lbs. 3,5 3,5 4 3, 3, 35 2,5 2,5 2, 2, 3 25 2 1,5 1,5 1, 1, 15 1 5 5 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 California Florida Mexico 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 California Florida Mexico Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 24
Mexican raspberries expand the U.S. consumption calendar 1, lbs 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 199 216 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov California Canada Chile Mexico Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 25
Raspberry imports from Mexico approach U.S. production level Million lbs. 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 199 1995 2 25 21 215 US production Canada Mexico Guatemala Chile Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 26
U.S. per capita blueberry consumption increased 931 percent between 199-92 and 214-16 1, lbs 1,2 1, 199 216 8 6 4 2 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov US Mexico Other importers Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 27
Mexico s share of U.S. blueberry imports increased to 9 percent 1, tons 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Canada Mexico Peru Chile Argentina Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. 28
Mexico is the leading source foreign or domestic of blackberries in the United States 1, lbs. 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov 28 216 US Mexico Guatemala Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 29
Avocados USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda.gov 3
Million lbs. 2, Avocados: Mexican production supplied 91 percent of U.S. consumption in 216 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 199 1995 2 25 21 215 United States Mexico Bahamas Dominican Republic Peru Chile New Zealand Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce. 31
U.S. avocado production is higher during the summer, when imports from Mexico are lower 1, lbs. 3, 2,5 199 216 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov California Florida Bahamas Chile Dominican Republic Mexico Peru Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. 32
Questions and discussion Thank you! Linda Calvin, lcalvin@ers.usda.gov Steven Zahniser, zahniser@ers.usda.gov ERS website: www.ers.usda.gov 33