The Source for Floating Production Systems since 1996 Floating Production Systems Outlook R eport 2017-2021 Outlook for FPSOs, Semis, TLPs, FLNGs, FSRUs and FSOs 2017 FPS Report Series Volume 1 Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd www.energymaritimeassociates.com
Floating Production Systems Outlook Report Table of Contents A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS) 16 Brief ¾ History of the Offshore Industry 16 FPS ¾ Life Cycle 21 FPS ¾ Unit Types 25 Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Units (FPSOs) 25 Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs) 29 Single Point Anchor Riser (Spars) 33 Floating Liquefied Natural Gas Units (FLNGs) 36 Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) 41 Production Semisubmersibles (Semis) 44 Floating Storage and Offloading Vessels (FSOs) 47 Mobile Offshore Production Units (MOPUs) 49 B. Current Market Status 52 What ¾ Happened in 2016? 52 Project Awards 52 Project Deliveries 58 Decommissioned Units 60 What ¾ Does the Market Look Like as of Jan 2017? 62 On Order 66 Trend in Order Backlog 71 Available Floating Production Systems 73 Projects in the Planning Pipeline 75 List ¾ of Leading FPS Operators and Owners 78 Top FPS Operators (Planning Pipeline) 78 Top FPS Owners 79 Top FPS Operators (Installed Units) 80 Top FLNG Owners 80 Top FPSO Owners 81 3
Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth (Installed Units) 82 Top FSO Owners 83 Top SPAR Owners 84 Top Production Semi Owners 85 Top FSRU Owners 86 Top TLP Owners 87 C. Underlying Market Drivers 88 Global ¾ Oil and Gas Demand Drivers 88 Long ¾ Term Global Oil and Gas Consumption 90 Long ¾ Term Demand for Oil and Gas 91 Global ¾ Oil and Gas Supplies 93 Global ¾ Oil Price 96 US ¾ Onshore Production 101 Offshore ¾ Drilling 102 D. Market Forecasts 106 Summary ¾ of 106 Forecast ¾ Scenarios 109 FPSO ¾ Forecast 114 FLNG ¾ Forecast 122 FSRU ¾ Forecast 126 FSO ¾ Forecast 129 SEMI ¾ Forecast 133 SPAR ¾ Forecast 137 TLP ¾ Forecast 140 Forecast ¾ Appendix 143 E. Floating Production Industry Survey 144 4
F. Contractor Focus 156 Leasing ¾ Contractors 156 Bluewater 157 Bumi Armada 159 BW Offshore (BWO) 161 MODEC 163 SBM 166 Teekay 168 Yinson 171 FSRU/FLNG Companies 173 Excelerate 173 Exmar 175 Golar LNG 176 Hoegh LNG 178 EPC ¾ Contractors 180 Chinese Yards 183 Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry (CSHI) 183 China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) 185 China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) 186 Korean Yards 188 Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) 188 Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) 190 Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) 192 Southeast Asian Yards 194 Jurong 194 Keppel 196 Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE) 198 Sembawang 200 5
List of Illustrations A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS) 16 Fig ¾ 1. FPS Units > 1,500m by Year Installed 17 Fig ¾ 2. Installed FPS Units by Maximum Water Depth Over Time 18 Fig ¾ 3. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 1991-2000 18 Fig ¾ 4. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2001-2010 19 Fig ¾ 5. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2011-2016 19 Fig ¾ 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price 20 Fig ¾ 7. Comparison of Operating Cost, Capital Cost, and Oil Price Indices 21 Fig ¾ 8. FPS Life Cycle Schematic 24 Fig ¾ 9. FPSO Schematic 26 Fig ¾ 10. Mooring Systems Comparison 27 Fig ¾ 11. TLP Schematic 31 Fig ¾ 12. SPAR Schematic 35 Fig ¾ 13. FLNG Schematic 39 Fig ¾ 14. FSRU Schematic 42 Fig ¾ 15. Semi Schematic 45 Fig ¾ 16. FSO Schematic 48 Fig ¾ 17. MOPU Schematic 50 B. Current Market Status 52 Fig ¾ 18. Units Awarded in 2015 and 2016 by FPS Type 53 Fig ¾ 19. Awarded Units 2014-2016 by Quarter 53 Fig ¾ 20. Distribution of Units Awarded in 2016 by Type 54 Fig ¾ 21. Details for Units Awarded in 2016 55 Fig ¾ 22. Units Awarded in 2016 by Capital Cost 56 Fig ¾ 23. Units Awarded in 2016 by Operator Category 57 Fig ¾ 24. Units Awarded in 2016 by Yard 57 Fig ¾ 25. Units Delivered in 2016 by Region and Unit Type 58 6
Fig ¾ 26. Details of Units Delivered in 2016 59 Fig ¾ 27. Units Delivered in 2016 by Operator Type 60 Fig ¾ 28. Units Decommissioned in 2016 61 Fig ¾ 29. Total Installed Units by Type 62 Fig ¾ 30. Global Distribution of Installed Units by Type 63 Fig ¾ 31. Installed Units by FPS Type and Region 64 Fig ¾ 32. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region 65 Fig ¾ 33. FPS Units On Order by Type and Region 67 Fig ¾ 34. FPS Units On Order by Name and Type 68 Fig ¾ 35. Distribution of Units On Order by Destination 69 Fig ¾ 36. Distribution of Units On Order by Yard 70 Fig ¾ 37. FPS Order Book 1997-2016 72 Fig ¾ 38. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up and Type 73 Fig ¾ 38a. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up, Type and Status 74 Fig ¾ 39. Projects in Planning Process 75 Fig ¾ 40. Projects in Planning Process by Region 76 Fig ¾ 41. Projects in Planning Process by Region and Water Depth 77 Fig ¾ 42. Top Operators by Projects in Planning Process 78 Fig ¾ 43. Top FPS Unit Owners 79 Fig ¾ 44. Top Operators by Units Leased or Owned 80 Fig ¾ 45. Top FLNG Owners 80 Fig ¾ 46. Top FPSO Owners 81 Fig ¾ 47. Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth 82 Fig ¾ 48. Top FSO Owners 83 Fig ¾ 49. Top Spar Owners 84 Fig ¾ 50. Top Semi Owners 85 Fig ¾ 51. Top FSRU Owners 86 Fig ¾ 52. Top TLP Owners 87 7
C. Underlying Market Drivers 88 Fig ¾ 53. World Oil Demand 89 Fig ¾ 54. World Liquid Fuels Consumption 89 Fig ¾ 55. World GDP Growth 90 Fig ¾ 56. GDP Growth due to Population and Income 90 Fig ¾ 57. Energy Demand Growth 91 Fig ¾ 58. Energy Demand by Sector 91 Fig ¾ 59. World Energy Consumption by Sector 92 Fig ¾ 60. Fuel Economy and Demand Growth 92 Fig ¾ 61. Demand Supply Balance 93 Fig ¾ 62. World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption 93 Fig ¾ 63. Energy Supply 2015-2040 94 Fig ¾ 64. Total World Energy Consumption by Energy Source ( 1990-2040) 95 Fig ¾ 65. Liquids Supply by Source (2000-2040) 95 Fig ¾ 66. Changes in Liquids Supply 95 Fig ¾ 67. World Tight Oil Production 95 Fig ¾ 68. LNG Capacity Additions 96 Fig ¾ 69. WTI and Brent Historical Price by Month 97 Fig ¾ 70. WTI Crude Oil Price 97 Fig ¾ 71. OPEC Production and Quotas 97 Fig ¾ 72. Brent Crude Oil Price in 2040 (high, low and reference cases) 98 Fig ¾ 73. Brent Futures 98 Fig ¾ 74. Historical Henry Hub Gas Prices 1998-2016 99 Fig ¾ 75. Henry Hub Price 2015-2017 99 Fig ¾ 76. Henry Hub Futures 99 Fig ¾ 77. Gas Supply and Demand by Region 2015-2040 100 Fig ¾ 78. LNG Exports by Region 2015-2040 100 8
Fig ¾ 79. North American Rotary Rig Count 101 Fig ¾ 80. Dayrates and Utilization-Jackups 103 Fig ¾ 81. Dayrates and Utilization-Drillships 103 Fig ¾ 82. Dayrates and Utilization-Semisubmersibles 103 Fig ¾ 83. Comparison of Operating Cost, Capital Cost, and Oil Price Indices 104 Fig ¾ 84. Total Offshore Discovered Volumes by Country (million boe) 105 D. Market Forecasts 106 Fig ¾ 85. FPS Forecast by Unit Type 106 Fig ¾ 86. Capex Forecast by Region and FPS Type 107 Fig ¾ 87. Growth of FPS Inventory 107 Fig ¾ 88. by FPS Type and Capex 113 Fig ¾ 89. Historical Growth of FPSO Inventory 114 Fig ¾ 90. FPSO Awards 2003-2021 115 Fig ¾ 91. Forecast of FPSO Awards per Year (2017-2021) 116 Fig ¾ 92. FPSO Awards 2017-2021 with Petrobras Proportion 116 Fig ¾ 93. FPSO Forecast by Hull Type 117 Fig ¾ 94. Average FPSO Processing Capacity by Ownership Type 118 Fig ¾ 95. Leased FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity 119 Fig ¾ 96. FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity 119 Fig ¾ 97. FPSO Capex by Hull Type 119 Fig ¾ 98. FPSO Awards by Region 120 Fig ¾ 99. FPSO Capex by Production Ranges and Hull Type 121 Fig ¾ 100. FPSO Orders by Production Ranges and Hull Type 121 Fig ¾ 101. FLNG Orders and Deliveries 122 Fig ¾ 102. FLNG Orders by Unit Size 2017-2021 125 Fig ¾ 103. FLNG Forecast and Capex by Unit Size 2017-2021 125 Fig ¾ 104. Historical Growth of FSRU Inventory 126 9
Fig ¾ 105. Historical FSRU Orders 126 Fig ¾ 106. FSRU Forecast by Unit Size 2017-2021 128 Fig ¾ 107. FSRU Forecast and Total Capex by Unit Size 2017-2021 128 Fig ¾ 108. Historical FSO Inventory 129 Fig ¾ 109. Historical FSO Orders 129 Fig ¾ 110. FSO Forecast by Type 2017-2021 132 Fig ¾ 111. FSO Forecast and Capex by Type 2017-2021 132 Fig ¾ 112. Historical Inventory of Semis 133 Fig ¾ 113. Historical Semi Orders 134 Fig ¾ 114. Semi Forecast by Type 2017-2021 136 Fig ¾ 115. Semi Forecast and Capex by Type 2017-2021 136 Fig ¾ 116. Historical Inventory of Spars 137 Fig ¾ 117. Historical Spar Orders 137 Fig ¾ 118. Spar Forecast by Type 2017-2021 139 Fig ¾ 119. Spar Forecast and Capex by Type 2017-2021 139 Fig ¾ 120. Historical TLP Inventory 140 Fig ¾ 121. Historical TLP Orders 141 Fig ¾ 122. TLP Forecast by Type 2017-2021 142 Fig ¾ 123. TLP Forecast and Capex by Type 2017-2021 142 Fig. ¾ Forecast Appendix 143 E. Floating Production Industry Survey 144 Fig ¾ 124. Confidence in Business Outlook in the Next 12 Months 144 Fig ¾ 125. Expected Length of Downturn 145 Fig ¾ 126. Impact of Downturn 146 Fig ¾ 127. Activity Levels in the Next 12-24 Months 147 Fig ¾ 128. Largest Obstacle for Awards in the Next 12-24 Months 148 Fig ¾ 129. Capacity Constraints in the Next 12-24 Months 149 10
Fig ¾ 130. Most Attractive Regions in the Next 5-10 Years 150 Fig ¾ 131. FPS Type with the Highest Growth Opportunities 151 Fig ¾ 132. Outlook for Leased, Newbuilt, and Redeployed Units 152 Fig ¾ 133. Technologies with the Largest Impact 153 Fig ¾ 134. Shipyards Benefitting Most from Industry Changes 154 Fig ¾ 135. Survey Profile -Business 155 Fig ¾ 136. Survey Profile - Position 155 F. Contractor Focus 156 Fig ¾ 137. Top Leasing Contractors and Their Fleets 156 Fig ¾ 138. Bluewater- Contracts by Field Operator 157 Fig ¾ 139. Bluewater- Asset Distribution by Region 158 Fig ¾ 140. Bluewater- Fleet Status 158 Fig ¾ 141. Bumi Armada- Contracts by Field Operator 159 Fig ¾ 142. Bumi Armada- Asset Distribution by Region 159 Fig ¾ 143. Bumi Armada- Fleet Status 160 Fig ¾ 144. BWO- Contracts by Field Operator 161 Fig ¾ 145. BWO- Asset Distribution by Region 161 Fig ¾ 146. BWO- Fleet Status 162 Fig ¾ 147. Modec- Contracts by Operator 164 Fig ¾ 148. Modec- Asset Distribution by Region 164 Fig ¾ 149. Modec- Fleet Status 165 Fig ¾ 150. SBM- Contracts by Field Operator 166 Fig ¾ 151. SBM- Asset Distribution by Region 166 Fig ¾ 152. SBM- Fleet Status 167 Fig ¾ 153. Teekay- Contracts by Field Operator 168 Fig ¾ 154. Teekay- Asset Distribution by Region 168 Fig ¾ 155. Teekay- Fleet Status 169 11
Fig ¾ 156. Yinson- Contracts by Field Operator 171 Fig ¾ 157. Yinson- Asset Distribution by Region 171 Fig ¾ 158. Yinson- Fleet Status 172 Fig ¾ 159. Excelerate- Contracts by Field Operator 173 Fig ¾ 160. Excelerate- Asset Distribution by Region 174 Fig ¾ 161. Excelerate- Fleet Status 174 Fig ¾ 162. Exmar- Fleet Status 175 Fig ¾ 163. Golar- Contracts by Operator 176 Fig ¾ 164. Golar- Asset Distribution by Region 176 Fig ¾ 165. Golar- Fleet Status 177 Fig ¾ 166. Hoegh- Contracts by Operator 178 Fig ¾ 167. Hoegh- Asset Distribution by Region 178 Fig ¾ 168. Hoegh- Fleet Status 179 Fig ¾ 169. EPC Contractor Orderbook by Type 180 Fig ¾ 170. SEA Yards - Client Distribution 182 Fig ¾ 171. Korean Yards - Client Distribution 182 Fig ¾ 172. Chinese Yards - Client Distribution 182 Fig ¾ 173. SEA Yards - Order Destination 182 Fig ¾ 174. Korean Yards - Order Destination 182 Fig ¾ 175. Chinese Yards - Order Destination 182 Fig ¾ 176. COSCO - Orders by Client 184 Fig ¾ 177. COSCO - Order Destination 184 Fig ¾ 178. COSCO - Order Backlog 184 Fig ¾ 179. CSIC - Orders by Client 185 Fig ¾ 180. CSIC- Order Destination 185 Fig ¾ 181. CSIC - Order Backlog 185 Fig ¾ 182. CSSC - Orders by Client 186 Fig ¾ 183. CSSC - Order Destination 186 12
Fig ¾ 184. CSSC - Order Backlog 186 Fig ¾ 185. Wison - Orders by Client 187 Fig ¾ 186. Wison - Order Destination 187 Fig ¾ 187. Wison - Order Backlog 187 Fig ¾ 188. Daewoo - Orders by Client 189 Fig ¾ 189. Daewoo - Order Destination 189 Fig ¾ 190. Daewoo - Order Backlog 189 Fig ¾ 191. Hyundai - Orders by Client 190 Fig ¾ 192. Hyundai - Order Destination 190 Fig ¾ 193. Hyundai - Order Backlog 191 Fig ¾ 194. Samsung - Orders by Client 192 Fig ¾ 195. Samsung - Order Destination 192 Fig ¾ 196. Samsung - Order Backlog 193 Fig ¾ 197. Jurong - Orders by Client 195 Fig ¾ 198. Jurong - Order Destination 195 Fig ¾ 199. Jurong - Order Backlog 195 Fig ¾ 200. Keppel - Orders by Client 196 Fig ¾ 201. Keppel - Order Destination 196 Fig ¾ 202. Keppel - Order Backlog 197 Fig ¾ 203. MMHE - Orders by Client 198 Fig ¾ 204. MMHE - Order Destination 198 Fig ¾ 205. MMHE - Order Backlog 199 Fig ¾ 206. Sembawang - Orders by Client 200 Fig ¾ 207. Sembawang - Order Destination 200 Fig ¾ 208. Sembawang - Order Backlog 201 13